Crazy or Not? Rask makes CCS $

[Raskolnikov]

I vow to do my best and only make cash alerts on the best values I come across in the sports universe.

I will be applying 20 years experience, a .671 average on ESPN beat the Streak with an L4 as worst streak. Both marks are elite top 0.1% achievements.
I specialize/excel in European Soccer, NHL, mens college basketball, and baseball. I dabble in statistical advantage across a variety of sports, like tennis or college football if a perceived advantage presents.

Good luck to all out there. Enjoy these free picks while they last.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Overall Record 0-0, earnings

Pick 1. 10 units. Euro's 2021 Soccer...Belgium -107 at 2 pm today. So act fast.
Pick 2. 3.3 units. Belgium -1.5 (+271)!!! this must be a joke!
Pick 3. 2 units. belgium 1st H(1H)(+148)
Pick 4. 1 unit. game total over -2.5 (100)

Belgium plays Russia in their first group stage game of Europe 2021 Finals.

For some reason, I think because their best player, Kevin DeBruyne is out, they are available at -107 odds. Of the 11 players that start, I think 9, 10, or 11 would start for Russia so I don't think this game is graded correctly. Russia have improved greatly, but they are still thugs and hacks who frustrate and counter with 1 or 2 guys that can actually create or score. That won't be enough against a Belgium side that is top 5 in the world, has class everywhere, and probably gets paid internationally at least 10x as much money. The true odds should be at least -300 in favor of Belgium and you should play the size of your balls, the highest risk you can survive.
3-0 Belgium, maybe 3-1. 2-1 at worst. So take 33% of your expected winnings, and double down on the -1.5 goal line as an "underdog" when you are not.

Of course this one smells. The fix may be in. I can't wrap my head around how this game is graded. Soccer is frustrating at times, this game probably sees 15 shots to 5 or something, and that doesn't always equal victory, but I would stand strong and confident about this one. Russia vs U.S. would be about even. Belgium is on another level or two.(edit: its because this game is in Russia, they will run hard and scream loud but its nothing Belgian players aren't used to professionally)

 

[zack54attack]

I took Belgium at -107.

 

[Ares]

I took Belgium at -107.

I took em at -110

Belgium up 2-0

Looking good on this one, Rask.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Just read this thread, as I thought it was another weirdo-Rask thread, but I as well took Belgium. Forgot what I took them for. Just to win though, I didn't bet on the game line.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Also, DraftKings gave me Belgium +650 to win.

 

[Ares]

Also, DraftKings gave me Belgium +650 to win.

Really?

I'd have a new Audi by now...

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Really?

I'd have a new Audi by now...

View attachment 12198

* to win the Euros.

 

[Raskolnikov]

(+650 sounds like Belgian odds to win the tourney.)

Overall: 4-0, +22 units

Lol. Well, it's nice to jump out ahead. If you kept up, we can lay 1/3 of winnings down on next up. If starting out, just go halfsies.

Pick 5. 7 units.(win 4)Netherlands -175, Euro Soccer 2020.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

I will only follow @Raskolnikov's advice on betting futbol.

 

[zack54attack]

Belgium was easy money. Can’t believe it was -107.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Belgium was easy money. Can’t believe it was -107.

Yeah, I'm going to down grade Pick 5 to 2.2 units to win 1.33 for late applications.

Netherlands lack finishing teeth and Ukraine have a lethal player or two. If already played you can hedge off some on +220 draw line.

about 1/4 of original Netherlands play should do.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

@Raskolnikov here are my plays today, which I parlayed:
Tie +285 in England-Croatia
Oranje -155
Austria -136

Parlay odds are +1005

 

[zack54attack]

Some college baseball:

Ole Miss/AZ OVER

 

[Raskolnikov]

Yes, by all means. Feel free to inform and contribute, maybe we can get @SilenceS back here helping us out.

On that note...

Anyone else think the Cubs are solid value at -135 tonight?

 

[Raskolnikov]

Croatia's form has fallen off but England is the most frustrating team in football is why I avoided that game. Modric can't run like he used to, he's alot like Messi where he can help you but needs fortification all around him.

Oranje...never a doubt! lol

Overall 5-0, Units +24.5

so copa america is going on also. If your a soccer fan this is actually the highest level of Soccer you will ever see. Copa America and Euro Cup are higher quality than the World Cup which is more inclusive. I respect Venezuela a great deal, they would stomp Ukraine, they would crush the U.S., so would Ecuador. But these teams are going up against unbelievable skill level today. Looking at the Brazil line-up...Thiago Silva is one of the best players in Europe and he is on the bench. I was going to play Brazil but looking at the lines...I can't. -2.5 is steep even with aformentioned. Colombia is nearly as good, facing a better opponent, but the odds aren't absurd.


Pick 6...1 units Cubs -135
Pick 7...2 units Cubs 5 inning run line -.5 (+125)
Pick 8...Colombia -115 2 units.

If you want to see something wild, watch the energy of Colombia vs Ecuador. These Jungle mother fuckers can run like you can't believe. Euro soccer displays the pinnacle of organization and discipline. But Copa America is the best skill and energy you will ever see. Few humans can run like that or have skill developed on dirty streets 12 hours a day.

Pay to play ain't the only problem with American soccer. We don't have that culture or desperation to create it.

 

[Raskolnikov]

I will only follow @Raskolnikov's advice on betting futbol.

you said this and then bet some other stuff.

haha. I wanted to pick Austria too but the North Macedonia win against Germany scared me even with a German experimental line-up. Damn they are a physical side...unfortunately they went against an Austrian side they couldn't bully and maybe one of 5 sides in the world that would beat them in a fight.

5 might be too many. There were 10-15 bad ass mofo's out there today. I think Russia would probably rather knife fight them than play soccer. Pretty sure that dirty header against Belgium broke facial bones.

I really think awarding a benefit to concussion protocol is a terrible idea. Russia showed you can exploit that rule and look for opportunty to injure an opponent while creating an extra sub for yourself too.

 

[zack54attack]

Hit Netherlands today at a 20% boost. Sweated it out tho.

 

[Raskolnikov]

RASK RECORD: 8-0, +29.5 units

Pick 9 2 units Vegas in Regulation(3 way) (-160)
Pick 10 1 unit 76ers mL (-165)
Pick 11 6.5 units Tampa bay lightning (-185)

 

[Raskolnikov]

Hit Netherlands today at a 20% boost. Sweated it out tho.

dominated for 70 minutes and then they put two in the upper V. Soccer is like pulling teeth alot. I wonder if its worth the stress sometimes. I mean even the Belgium-Russia game may have swung on its head had the Brazilian Fernandes got any angle on that header blast to tie up 1-1. Changes everything. We were fortunate the Netherlands were able to pull that game out, but they were the better team on the day.