Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

CSF77

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Caleb Kilian 2-0 1.31 ERA 40 SO 13 BB in 34.1 IP 1.22 WHIP
DJ Hertz 0-0 1.98 ERA 38 SO 15 BB in 27.1 IP 1.02 WHIP
Jordan Wicks 0-0 3.86 ERA 34 SO 9 BB in 28 IP 1.32 WHIP

So the Cubs have a decent TOR forming up right now.

Core Hitters:
Nelson Velazquez .227/.320/.386 Adjustment period.
Brennon Davis .195/.286/.299 DL.

Both are in adjustment vs vet minor league talent.

Crow Armstrong: .375/.470/.563 20 BB and 10 SB. So this is the guy that projects as that missing lead off. Key note here. 2003 Kenny Lofton. Jump starts a Cubs line up pushing for best team in NL. 2008 was Soriano. But he was basically a RBI as a lead off anyways. 2016 Dexter Fowler again jumpstarts a line up.

All 3 teams had strong lead off hitters and 2004 fell apart with more talent minus Lofton. 2017 Fowler moves on and the Cubs fell yet again.

There is a bit of a trend going on and Joe had pushed out failed lead offs for years trying to bring back what Fowler lost.

So he is a big deal to follow.
 

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MLB pipeline has updated their top 100 prospects rankings:

16. Brennen Davis

Brennen Davis was the only previous member of the Top 15 club to fall out, and he’s still banging on the door at No. 16. The Cubs outfielder has hit just .195/.286/.299 with a 34.1 percent K rate in 22 games at Triple-A Iowa. A back injury that currently has him on the IL could be to blame, and that’s part of why his slow start hasn’t slipped him further down the rankings.

85. Cristian Hernandez

97. Pete Crow-Armstrong

The 2020 19th overall pick, who was acquired from the Mets while injured at last year’s Trade Deadline, has been off to a fiery start at Single-A Myrtle Beach, where he’s hitting .372/.463/.584 through 33 games. Crow-Armstrong is a plus runner and plus-plus defender in center on top of that.
 

CSF77

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Herz strikes out career-high 12 (June 1)
DJ Herz was racking up the strikeouts for High-A South Bend.

The No. 9 prospect set a career high with 12 K’s across five nearly-perfect innings. The southpaw surrendered a double on the fourth pitch of the game, and that would be only one of two baserunners he allowed (the second came on a hit-by-pitch in the fifth). After the two-bagger, Herz set down the next 14 batters, including a string of eight strikeouts in a row. Of the 17 batters he faced, eight went down swinging and four were caught looking.

The 21-year-old lowered his ERA to 1.45 and has amassed 53 whiffs in 37 1/3 innings. -- Stephanie Sheehan
 

CSF77

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They need to move him up. He is filthy.
 

SilenceS

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Cubs A ball team is stacked and the prospects are killing it there. Going to be a lot of movement
 

CSF77

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DJ Herz now through 5IP - Double Bunt pop up 1 K K K K K K K K FO (8) K K K LO (3) HBP K 75 pitches (57 strikes)
 

JP Hochbaum

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Aramis Ademan, once the Cubs top ranked prospect in 2018, has been retired the past year. Had no idea this happened and I am assuming it must be some very personal reason for this.
 

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Keith Law’s mid season top 60 prospects ranking…

28. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs

Crow-Armstrong has one of the highest floors of anyone in the minors, because he’s going to be at least a 60 defender in center, probably 70, who’ll hit — everyone agrees he’s going to hit. More of a contact/speed hitter in high school, he’s changed his stance and swing since hurting his shoulder last spring, starting more upright and less open, getting into his legs more to get to more power for 13 homers this year between Low and High A. The Mets’ first-round pick from 2020 played in just six games in 2021, then went to the Cubs in the Javier Báez trade. This year marked his Cubs debut, and now he’s their best prospect, a true centerfielder with very strong hit/OBP skills who might end up surprising us all with 20-ish homers at his peak.

35. Brennen Davis, OF, Chicago Cubs

Davis had a rough start to the season and ended up having surgery on his lower back in early June, which was thought to be the end of his 2022 season, but there’s a chance we’ll see him before the minor-league season wraps up or in the Arizona Fall League. When healthy, he’s shown plus raw power and could end up a 25-30 homer guy who gets on base at an above-average clip and plays strong defense in right field. We may not see that version of Davis again until he gets a full offseason of rehab and rest.

60. Kevin Alcantara, OF, Chicago Cubs

Alcantara was the highest-ceiling prospect the Cubs got back in all of their trades last summer. The now 19-year-old outfielder has as projectable a body as you will ever see and surprising bat control for a still gangly 6-6 kid. Alcantara is hitting .265/.353/.462 in Low A, playing half his games in the notorious pitchers’ park of Myrtle Beach, with a team-leading 12 homers and 16 doubles — tying for the team lead in that category. He’s played mostly center since Crow-Armstrong’s promotion, but Alcantara is going to put on at least another 20 pounds and I think he ends up in right. He has similar OBP/power upside to Emmanuel Rodriguez, although Alcantara’s power is still on the come.
 

beckdawg

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I think PCA is still underrated. In my eyes he's as good as Cristian Pache was although he has more bat and slightly less defense. Like across all minor league levels Pache hit .280/.330/.406 and stole 68 out of 113 attempted with 34 homers in 2237 PAs. PCA is at .317/.388/.542 with 22 out of 31 bases and 14 HR in 358 PAs.

You probably wanna bump PCA's numbers down a bit in comparison because Pache spent almost all of his age 20 season in AA with part being promoted to AAA where as PCA is still in A+ at age 20 but still that's a pretty big difference in walk rate, ba and slg and he's a better base stealer. Pache is probably the best defensive CF in quite a long time but PCA is getting like 70 grades from a lot defensively so he's not that far behind. I think maybe you could make the case Pache had more upside and all but he was basically a top 10 type prospect. So I think PCA is still undervalued.
 

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Interesting nugget on Ben Brown from the Athletic…

After scouting opened up a bit more following the pandemic, the Cubs were very aggressive in scouting minor-league spring training to get a sense of where players were after a year off. Brown was one of a handful of players out of the hundreds they scouted who stood out to them. They attempted to acquire him from the Phillies at the last deadline but couldn’t come to a deal and were thrilled that he was available to them this summer.

What worked in the Cubs’ favor is that Philadelphia has had quite a few pitchers continue to take steps forward and a couple of breakouts, pushing Brown down in the pecking order. Some with the Cubs believed Brown would have been the top arm in other organizations, likely making him unavailable, but Mick Abel, Andrew Painter and Griff McGarry all are impressive pitchers in the Phillies system, suddenly making Brown attainable.

The Cubs had numerous looks at Brown this year and every viewing the scout came away with a positive impression, seeing him with at least solid-average upside. The view again is that Brown is a starter, someone who fills up the zone and already has two plus pitches with his four-seamer and slider. The Cubs love his makeup and see him as a bulldog on the mound, the type of competitor who strikes out a batter and then stares them down as they walk off the field.

They see potential developmental opportunities as well, believing he fits well into their pitching infrastructure and might try to give him a pitch with a little more touch or depth to add to his power heater and power breaking ball. The belief is they’ve potentially added someone who is in the middle of really taking off as a prospect. In 73 innings at High A this season, Brown has a 3.08 ERA with a really impressive 35.4 percent strikeout rate and a 7.7 percent walk rate. He’d just been promoted to Double A by the Phillies and the expectation is that he’ll make his debut this weekend with Tennessee.
 

JP Hochbaum

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He killed it with TN last night. 9ks 1 walk.

This reboot of the system is soooo much different that the previous one. 23 and 24 should see a pitching wave, where if we can sign one ACE and still have Stroman it could give us an incredibly talented and deep pitching staff that would be deep enough to protect from injuries. The hitting wave is also different as it seems to be made up of less power and more low K rate guys who can walk. This seems to be a correction to the over reliance on high .OPS guys with high K rates that can't hit in the elite pitching playoffs. While there are some like the previous build it isn't nearly as numerous.
 

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