Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

knoxville7

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He killed it with TN last night. 9ks 1 walk.

This reboot of the system is soooo much different that the previous one. 23 and 24 should see a pitching wave, where if we can sign one ACE and still have Stroman it could give us an incredibly talented and deep pitching staff that would be deep enough to protect from injuries. The hitting wave is also different as it seems to be made up of less power and more low K rate guys who can walk. This seems to be a correction to the over reliance on high .OPS guys with high K rates that can't hit in the elite pitching playoffs. While there are some like the previous build it isn't nearly as numerous.
I noticed 4 of the 9 strikeouts were looking, too. Tells me his stuff is legit, he was fooling hitters
 

beckdawg

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The hitting wave is also different as it seems to be made up of less power and more low K rate guys who can walk.
This is honestly true for both hitting and pitching. You look at all their top tier guys and they have large k rates. Killian is at 10.5 k/9 throughout his minor league career(2.3 bb/9). Wicks is at 11.4(2.5 bb/9). Herz is at 13.6(5.4 bb/9). Hayden Wesneski is at 9.6/2.6. Ryan Jensen is at 9.9/4.7. Ben Brown is at 11.4/3.1.

If you go back and look at the last wave you had guys like Alex Lange at 8.3/3.9, justin steele at 8.9/3.7, Underwood 7.5/3.5, Bryan Hudson at 7.1/4.3, Pierce Johnson at 9.4/4.1. The best of that bunch was Cease at 11.4/4.2 and while he's obviously broken out this year it took him a good 4 years. And honestly the pitchers on that list aren't "bad". Lange, Johnson and Underwood have turned into decent relievers and Steele looks ok but it's more of a case that they in large part don't have enough upside to be the starters we hoped.

With the current crop they are all posting really favorable FIP numbers with that combo of high k rate and low walk rate with the exception on guys like Jensen and Herz. Those two may end up in a bullpen because of it but Herz in particular is interesting enough with that k rate to keep trying to find him some control. For some context. Since he was drafted, there are only 4 pitchers with 150 IP who have a higher k/9 than Herz in the minors. DL Hall is #22 on fangraphs rankings and Kyle Harrison is #30. Those respectively are #3 and #1 sorted by k/9. #2 is a cards reliever Freddy Pacheco. #4 is Royber Salinas who's a starter in Atlanta's system. If you bump down the IP to 130 cleveland's Daniel Espino is also on the list as the #7 prospect in baseball.
 

JP Hochbaum

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Updated Prospects list out:

Cubs Top 30

MLB Top 100

It is quite crazy how much this has improved since the Darvish trade. While we aren't top heavy at the moment with high end top 100's, I would imagine that is because many of our top end guys are too young to be up there yet.
 
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Updated Prospects list out:

Cubs Top 30

MLB Top 100

It is quite crazy how much this has improved since the Darvish trade. While we aren't top heavy at the moment with high end to p100's, I would imagine that is because many of our top end guys are too young to be up there yet.
Comparing all the teams, Cubs are tied with Cleveland at having the most 50 FV or better prospects in the league (their top 14).
 

beckdawg

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Canario has got some pretty crazy power.

That link if you sort by iso shows all of the players in minor leagues this year with min 350 PAs and of those Canario is 10th in ISO. The cavet here being Kerry Carpenter, Jason Martin, Quincy Nieporte, Alex McGarry, and Stone Garrett are all sorta 4A types rather than prospects. That would leave you with Moises Gomez(23 and kinda pushing 4A type but .345 ISO), Elly De La Cruz(20 .306 ISO), Corbin Carroll(21 .302 ISO) and Niko Kavadas(also pushing 4A type at 23 but .301 ISO) as the only players ahead of his .292 ISO.

Overall I'm not like incredibly hyped about Canario the way I'm over the moon about PCA. I'm unsure if he has a long term fit or if he's more a second division guy who cubs end up trading away because of roster crunch. That being said... that's pretty big fucking power. For example, Stanton's minor league ISO was .299, Judge was at .194, Yordan Alvarez was .250.... you get the idea. If he can hit and his k issue isn't prevalent long term he'll be an upper tear power guy in the majors.
 

CSF77

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Canario has got some pretty crazy power.

That link if you sort by iso shows all of the players in minor leagues this year with min 350 PAs and of those Canario is 10th in ISO. The cavet here being Kerry Carpenter, Jason Martin, Quincy Nieporte, Alex McGarry, and Stone Garrett are all sorta 4A types rather than prospects. That would leave you with Moises Gomez(23 and kinda pushing 4A type but .345 ISO), Elly De La Cruz(20 .306 ISO), Corbin Carroll(21 .302 ISO) and Niko Kavadas(also pushing 4A type at 23 but .301 ISO) as the only players ahead of his .292 ISO.

Overall I'm not like incredibly hyped about Canario the way I'm over the moon about PCA. I'm unsure if he has a long term fit or if he's more a second division guy who cubs end up trading away because of roster crunch. That being said... that's pretty big fucking power. For example, Stanton's minor league ISO was .299, Judge was at .194, Yordan Alvarez was .250.... you get the idea. If he can hit and his k issue isn't prevalent long term he'll be an upper tear power guy in the majors.
Wisdom 2.0?
 

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Eno Sarris, of the Athletic, tracks MLB pitchers using a metric called stuff+…

AE7C22B2-DF42-4A25-821E-ABE4A7FB21E9.png

Sarris recently tracked Jeremiah Estrada’s pitches. His four seam fastball graded out second best in the entire league, with Orioles closer Felix Bautista at #1. And his slider graded out top 5 in the league.

Sarris recently tracked Jeremiah Estrada’s pitches. His four seam fastball graded out second best in the entire league, with Orioles closer Felix Bautista at #1. And his slider graded out top 5 in the league.
 

SilenceS

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Eno Sarris, of the Athletic, tracks MLB pitchers using a metric called stuff+…

View attachment 22184

Sarris recently tracked Jeremiah Estrada’s pitches. His four seam fastball graded out second best in the entire league, with Orioles closer Felix Bautista at #1. And his slider graded out top 5 in the league.

Sarris recently tracked Jeremiah Estrada’s pitches. His four seam fastball graded out second best in the entire league, with Orioles closer Felix Bautista at #1. And his slider graded out top 5 in the league.
Ive said this before but because of covid and the shutdown. There is going to be a lot of players that slipped through cracks that are going to make impacts simply because of that down time.
 

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Is this our first baseman in 2023? He got lost in the covid cycle. Guy has just an unreal real and the improvement per level is great. He has a real shot.
 

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Is this our first baseman in 2023? He got lost in the covid cycle. Guy has just an unreal real and the improvement per level is great. He has a real shot.

It’s pretty impressive that this season alone he’s gone from high A, to AA, to AAA without slowing down at all throughout that entire stretch.
 

SilenceS

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It’s pretty impressive that this season alone he’s gone from high A, to AA, to AAA without slowing down at all throughout that entire stretch.
He has gotten better at each level with walks soaring and K's dropping. Thats what should have the Cubs going we may have something
 

CSF77

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What are the chances that Mervis starts at 1B and Canerio at DH on opening day?
 

JP Hochbaum

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What are the chances that Mervis starts at 1B and Canerio at DH on opening day?
I could see it with Mervis, Canario has alarmingly high K rates, like Velasquez has had. Those power numbers go way down if the K rates stay that high.
 

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Guess the 2nd question is if they had to sign 1 big name only who would be the largest need. Not want to as that is subjective.

I feel that 3B is a hole. System has ziltch. Wisdom is a placeholder at best. SS has heavy depth but Hoerner is a solid MLB quality SS.

So in view of this and the pitching pending. 3B looks to be the area of concern. Catcher #2. #3 would be a TOR. Top tier SS falls under want unless that person slots at 3B.
 

knoxville7

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Guess the 2nd question is if they had to sign 1 big name only who would be the largest need. Not want to as that is subjective.

I feel that 3B is a hole. System has ziltch. Wisdom is a placeholder at best. SS has heavy depth but Hoerner is a solid MLB quality SS.

So in view of this and the pitching pending. 3B looks to be the area of concern. Catcher #2. #3 would be a TOR. Top tier SS falls under want unless that person slots at 3B.
That’s your answer to the 3B hole. One of the SS’s in the minor leagues ends up playing third.
 

Diehardfan

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That’s your answer to the 3B hole. One of the SS’s in the minor leagues ends up playing third.
I think he's saying sign a FA third baseman.....which is not a bad idea. They should have money to spend, why not there?
 

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