Cubs post trade deadline 2023 outlook

JP Hochbaum

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So I don't have as much time as guys like Aldipost to make something robust, so I put together something rather quick to give an idea of what this team could look like in 2023:

Position Players

Pitching

If too lazy to read here is a quick lineup and pitching projection, but I suggest reading it :)

Best case scenario, team spends to win next year lineup:

1. Suzuki RF
2. Contreras C
3. Arenado 3B
4. Abreu 1B/DH
5. Happ LF
6. Bogaerts 2B
7. Velasquez DH
8. Morel CF
9. Hoerner SS

Worst case scenario for next year to have flip deals at deadline, in case team plays bad in first half:

  1. Morel CF
  2. Belt 1B
  3. Suzuki RF
  4. Happ LF
  5. Wisdom 3B
  6. Velasquez DH
  7. Gomes/Amaya C
  8. Hoerner SS
  9. Madrigal 2B
The most likely scenario for next year is that the Cubs do another few 3-5 year deals as they did with Stroman and Suzuki last year. So I see them signing Bogaerts, and pushing Madrigal out of the lineup. This is the scenario that I would think has a greater than 50% chance of happening. Also left out for next year is Brennan Davis, as I think he will have to earn his spot during spring training, and since the outfield is packed with talent, he would force Morel into super utility role and Davis would start at CF.

Best case starting 5:

  1. Rodon/Kershaw/Syndegaard
  2. Stroman
  3. Steele
  4. Thompson
  5. Hendricks
Flip deals starting 5:

  1. Stroman
  2. Steele
  3. Thompson
  4. Gibson/Minor/Kluber
  5. Hendricks
It would be my personal choice to try and trade Hendricks in the off season and let the young pitching compete for the 5th spot. With the hope of Killian/Wezneski/Wicks winning the job. Herz has a great ceiling but he still has control issues that may end up turning into a closer role, so I don’t see him competing for this yet.
 

CSF77

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Best case:

Target a TOR.
Target a LH middle of the order hitter.
Resign Contreras
Target a closer


Worst case.

Q offer Contreras and get a pick
Trade Happ and Hendricks
Back fill with more untested and AAAA types.
 

CSF77

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Market should have Rodon and Thor on it. I'm still all in on Rodon. Thor not really sure if he is that guy anymore.

I do not expect Jed to go here.

LH core hitter. Bell will be up there.

Again it is unlikely.

What is likely is Jed green lights 1 guy like Suzuki that is under market and another tier 2 player like last off-season. Then the rest is vet depth again.

This year if healthy the team should have hovered .500. Miley was getting into a groove when he went down. Then the rest of the injuries to the rotation. Most didn't find a rhythm. But post deadline this rotation could end up 100% again. So this is when you really look at the team as a whole over the last 2 months. See if can be tinkered with or smash it.
 

Bronek

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I think you guys forgetting Adbert Alzolay who should be part of rotation next year.
 

beckdawg

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Best case:

Target a closer
Cubs aren't gonna target a closer in the traditional sense. They are going to do what they do seemingly every year now which is cheaply piece together a decent bullpen. Like I could see them maybe bitting on kimbrel at a cheaper price given he's struggled a bit in a similar way they did with robertson but they aren't gonna pay a reliever $10M+
 

JP Hochbaum

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I just find it refreshing that @CSF77 has some competition now......a battle at who can be the most far off?
Proof people don't click on links.

"The most likely scenario for next year is that the Cubs do another few 3-5 year deals as they did with Stroman and Suzuki last year. So I see them signing Bogaerts, and pushing Madrigal out of the lineup. This is the scenario that I would think has a greater than 50% chance of happening. "

There is about a 0% chance I think the Cubs do the best case scenario. Was just fun putting that together and thinking "what if".
 

Diehardfan

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Proof people don't click on links.

"The most likely scenario for next year is that the Cubs do another few 3-5 year deals as they did with Stroman and Suzuki last year. So I see them signing Bogaerts, and pushing Madrigal out of the lineup. This is the scenario that I would think has a greater than 50% chance of happening. "

There is about a 0% chance I think the Cubs do the best case scenario. Was just fun putting that together and thinking "what if".
Then don't include them.....see, problem solved.
 

TL1961

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I'm going the positive route here, and will latch onto the one point we can agree on, "pushing Madrigal out of the lineup", not that he is in or even on anyone's radar these days.

Where is he? What happened?

I am pleased with what Morel has shown, though I think he is waaaayyyyy over hyped.

Madrigal's ceiling is an inch above his floor. But I honestly don't recall why he's out.
 

TL1961

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Proof people don't click on links.

"The most likely scenario for next year is that the Cubs do another few 3-5 year deals as they did with Stroman and Suzuki last year. So I see them signing Bogaerts, and pushing Madrigal out of the lineup. This is the scenario that I would think has a greater than 50% chance of happening. "

There is about a 0% chance I think the Cubs do the best case scenario. Was just fun putting that together and thinking "what if".
Proof we didn't click a link because you have the Cubs signing every FA on the market and then cite an article claiming they're likely to sign mid-tier guys to short contracts? How does "3-5 year contracts" equate to getting the most coveted FAs on the market, who will be looking for 7-10 year deals?
 

CSF77

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Cubs aren't gonna target a closer in the traditional sense. They are going to do what they do seemingly every year now which is cheaply piece together a decent bullpen. Like I could see them maybe bitting on kimbrel at a cheaper price given he's struggled a bit in a similar way they did with robertson but they aren't gonna pay a reliever $10M+

I would push Thompson there. Cubs have 2 AAA starters in their top 10.

Alzolay faired better in the pen. He is also a durability issue. Less loss losing a set up vs a rotation guy.

Marquez as above. Lost 2020/2021 and now 22. From the reports he has used this year to build up lower body strength. So they decided to lessen the wear on his arm by getting him to use his legs more. So this could end up huge it he is able to put it together

So the pen might be in a good place and Jed really would need to focus on stability types.

Hendricks
Stroman
Smyly (opt). Makes sense to pull it.
Kilian
Steel

Pen Alzolay, Thompson, Marquez. They could resign Miley for a discount and push Steel here.

So there are options on the table.

The biggest issue in theory is a LH core hitter.

Armstrong at best AA->AAA. Next year. So he is not a solution.

But say they extend Happ and Contreras. Sign a LH power hitter to DH.

Morel 2B
Contreras C
Happ 1B
Suzuki RF
DH (leave this open for now)
Velequez LF
Hoerner SS
Wisdom 3B
Davis CF

I see this being a reach on Davis. Most likely he spends a year in Iowa. He would have to wreck ST to get a spot. That just means Morel and a platoon at 2B until then

Following year

Armstrong CF
Contreras C
Happ 1B
Suzuki RF
Caisse DH
Davis LF
Precideo 3B
Hoerner SS
Morel 2B

So ya there is still a way to make it work with retention.
 

JP Hochbaum

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Proof we didn't click a link because you have the Cubs signing every FA on the market and then cite an article claiming they're likely to sign mid-tier guys to short contracts? How does "3-5 year contracts" equate to getting the most coveted FAs on the market, who will be looking for 7-10 year deals?
Clearly didn't read it. I had two lineups written out, one called "best case scenario", which I said has a 0% chance of happening. And one called "likely scenario".
 

knoxville7

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Legit question…

Why do people have Thompson as a bullpen guy going forward? He’s been our best starter this season, shouldn’t he get a look as a starter again next season??
 

knoxville7

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Starter 4.30 ERA
Relief 1.38 ERA

He has closer upside.
Legit point

I just also see where he is the team leader in innings pitched. And he isn’t the first guy to have a better ERA when pitching 1 inning at a time vs 5+
 

Diehardfan

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Legit point

I just also see where he is the team leader in innings pitched. And he isn’t the first guy to have a better ERA when pitching 1 inning at a time vs 5+
You can see it on a lot of his starts....but all the starters with the 100 pitch counts are getting very close to being asked to give you only 5 innings which appears to be exactly where he is at. It's a tough call. The Cubs will need a closer and they will NOT be investing in one. You wonder what he would be like if he could just cut everything loose for 25 pitches instead of trying get his 5 innings in.

I have no idea which is valued more by the experts.....a 5 inning starter or a closer. For me, a reliable closer that you can use 3 or 4 times a week is worth more than a 5 inning starter....once a week.
 

TL1961

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You can see it on a lot of his starts....but all the starters with the 100 pitch counts are getting very close to being asked to give you only 5 innings which appears to be exactly where he is at. It's a tough call. The Cubs will need a closer and they will NOT be investing in one. You wonder what he would be like if he could just cut everything loose for 25 pitches instead of trying get his 5 innings in.

I have no idea which is valued more by the experts.....a 5 inning starter or a closer. For me, a reliable closer that you can use 3 or 4 times a week is worth more than a 5 inning starter....once a week.
Yes, but not if the staff can’t get to the closer with a lead.
 

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