Cubs to sign Arrieta

CSF77

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7:39pm: Arrieta will make $6MM, pending a physical, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

6:22pm: The two sides have agreed to a deal, Robert Murray of Fansided tweets.

6:08pm: The Cubs are nearing a contract with their former ace, right-hander Jake Arrieta, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. It’ll be a one-year deal, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He’ll likely earn $6.5MM to $7MM, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Arrieta is a client of the Boras Corporation.

Arrieta, who struggled at the beginning of his career as an Oriole, joined the Cubs in a trade in 2013 and was an enormous success with the team through 2017. He earned a Cy Young (2015) and a World Series title (2016) as a Cub, and he also recorded a sterling 2.73 ERA/3.49 SIERA across 803 regular-season innings with the team.

The Cubs tried to keep Arrieta when he became a free agent heading into 2018, but they were unwilling to match the Phillies’ three-year, $75MM contract. The Phillies thought they were adding an ace when they defeated the Cubs for Arrieta’s services, but that didn’t prove to be the case. Arrieta threw 352 2/3 innings with the club but disappointed with a 4.36 ERA/4.57 SIERA, which was more indicative of a back-end starter than a No. 1 type.

Because of his mediocre performance as a Phillie, Arrieta had no chance to rake in another high-paying contract this offseason. But Arrieta should earn plenty of starts now that he is back with the Cubs, who have just two proven options ahead of him in Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies. Alec Mills, Trevor Williams and Adbert Alzolay look like the most realistic candidates to fill out their top five.
 

CSF77

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He is middle of the rotation right now.

So I am expecting
Hendricks 6-5 2.88 ERA 0.996 WHIP
Davies 7-4 2.73 ERA 1.067 WHIP
Aretta 4-4 5.08 ERA 1.511 WHIP
Mills 6-6 4.48 ERA 1.155 WHIP
Williams 2-8 6.18 ERA 1.572 WHIP
Alzolay 1-1 2.95 ERA 1.172 WHIP

Looking at WHIP I would have to push Mills and Alzolay out there ahead of Jake and Williams. I wouldn't be shocked if Alzolay beats Williams. Jake is a fan fav and a 6 mil investment so it is really going to take something significant to bump him off the hill.

I would take this as they are not willing to commit to Alzolay right now and it is up to him to beat Williams for the 5.
 
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TL1961

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Ultimately i'm not sure how i feel about the deal. Like it's one year so whatever i guess but at 34 with his k rate declining Im not sure you're getting much out of him.
a. I don't expect him to be real effective, but hope I am wrong.
b. They are paying him more than it would have cost to keep Lester, and I will never forgive them for not keeping Lester.
c. I want results over nostalgia
d. But I am still glad they did this. (Though I hope it doesn't tarnish his image as a Cub.)
 

CSF77

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a. I don't expect him to be real effective, but hope I am wrong.
b. They are paying him more than it would have cost to keep Lester, and I will never forgive them for not keeping Lester.
c. I want results over nostalgia
d. But I am still glad they did this. (Though I hope it doesn't tarnish his image as a Cub.)

It could be a precursor to a Mets deal. Mets want a established SP. Cubs want to move Bryant. Cubs want JD Davis to take over 3B.

My thoughts are go for it. Bryant and Hendricks for Cano, JD Davis and their #1 Ronny Mauricio.

This replaces Bryant, Baez and Rizzo next year at a discount. If the DH is inacted then moving Cano there opens up a Rizzo resign.

What this does is reset the rotation in 2022 for the Cubs while dropping contract. Adding Cano is offset by the savings at 3B and SS.

2022 Thor and Danny Duffy hit the market and that would be a solid TOR ahead of Alzolay and Marquez.
 

beckdawg

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Why do you think the mets need more pitching? DeGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, former first round pick David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi until Syndergaard is back is more than enough pitching. Also on what planet would the cubs want Cano? He's suspended for 2021 and owed $48 mil the following 2 years when he'll be 39 and 40. Mauricio isn't worth $48 mil and giving up bryant.
 

CSF77

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Why do you think the mets need more pitching? DeGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, former first round pick David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi until Syndergaard is back is more than enough pitching. Also on what planet would the cubs want Cano? He's suspended for 2021 and owed $48 mil the following 2 years when he'll be 39 and 40. Mauricio isn't worth $48 mil and giving up bryant.
From the mlbtr article. Add to it
Seth Lugo To Undergo Bone Spur Surgery

It’s easy to conjure up more elaborate scenarios in which the Cubs send Bryant and an established pitcher to the Mets, who could use an upgrade in the rotation to push Joey Lucchesi into more of a depth role. The Mets just missed on Trevor Bauer in free agency, and they’ve recently been linked to free-agent starters. The Cubs adding any MLB pitching help to a potential deal would likely necessitate adding more pieces on the Mets’ side, however, further illustrating the difficult nature of actually coming to an agreement on such a layered discussion.


From the Mets side they drop 24 mil in 22 and 23. That is enough AAV to resign either Bryant or Lindor. Noah is not guaranteed that he will be back 100% and if they are all in Hendricks makes a strong #2 behind deGromm. There is no other starter that is better than him.

Cubs side. They would have to take on contract. But getting Davis and MLB.com #67 ranked prospect.

Finances wise Bryant, Baez and Rizzo are F/A. So that deal covers 3B this year. Allows Baez to walk. The Cubs are handcuffed there for 2-3 years and would have to invest heavy here. Rizzo most likely resigns but Cano is a 2B. If Rizzo walks then Cano moves to 1B. If the DH happens then he is perfect for the job.

Now I would rather trade Davies but 1 year of control is not going to cut it. The Mets are losing Thor to F/A and Hendricks makes more sense for them.

Cubs perspective is they are adding 1 year deals right now and are primed to turn over to Marquez and Alozay. Duffy and Thor will be on the market right when the Cubs reset tax and she'd a large amount of contract.
 
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CSF77

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Good signing. 6 million is a bargain for a starting pitcher in todays MLB.

I'm pretty sure Jake will bounce back as a Cub. From what I've read he has been mastering his offspeed stuff due to his loss of velocity. So he might be fine going forward.
 

Chicagosports89

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I'm pretty sure Jake will bounce back as a Cub. From what I've read he has been mastering his offspeed stuff due to his loss of velocity. So he might be fine going forward.
He'd lost velocity before he ever left the cubs. How long will it take to master the offspeed stuff? 4 years?

Odds are much more likely that he'll continue to be terrible than for him to bounce back
 

CSF77

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He'd lost velocity before he ever left the cubs. How long will it take to master the offspeed stuff? 4 years?

Odds are much more likely that he'll continue to be terrible than for him to bounce back
That was from a interview with Boras as he was talking about how he has worked on his offspeed and changed as a pitcher.

Jed signed him for 6 mil so this is not like many other players that are only getting minor league offers.

I would rather watch and react vs have a preconceived opinion.
 

CSF77

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But if you really look at sequencing pitchers normally start strike 1 with a fastball and work forward off of it. The trick is to start strike one on a non fast ball and work off of it.

Jake has a slider and a cutter. One breaks more than the other. So to me this should be his main combo and then use the fastball to freeze hitters or to go up in the zone.
 

Chicagosports89

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That was from a interview with Boras as he was talking about how he has worked on his offspeed and changed as a pitcher.

Jed signed him for 6 mil so this is not like many other players that are only getting minor league offers.

I would rather watch and react vs have a preconceived opinion.
His agent talked him up and mentioned he is changing his approach after being awful for 2+ seasons? That's shocking. How'd he learn that sales technique?
 

SilenceS

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Cubs are getting depth to trade Hendricks Imo. They may not trade him but they probably would get an enticing offer with his contract and his consistency. But, I believe this is where it heading
 

CSF77

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Cubs are getting depth to trade Hendricks Imo. They may not trade him but they probably would get an enticing offer with his contract and his consistency. But, I believe this is where it heading
Pretty much what I said and got hammered for.

I see this as Jed is overstocking right now. They are not going to go 6 deep and blocking Alozay with Guaranteed contracts after he showed something is really not smart.

All this tells me is there most likely with be a Hendricks/Bryant package going to NYM. They have missed on Pax also. They are going to be chomping at the bit by now.
 

CSF77

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His agent talked him up and mentioned he is changing his approach after being awful for 2+ seasons? That's shocking. How'd he learn that sales technique?

Jed watched him pitch. Again I would rather let Jake prove or disprove than take the opinion of a armchair QB.

If it was a feel good move alone then Jed most likely gives him less.

Regardless this has the sign of Jed going +1 and setting up Hendricks to sell. That way they have Davies, Jake and Williams on 1 year deals. If he can flip any of them great. If not no big deal.

6 mil is not a major contract by any means. It is #5 starter cash.
 
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Join us tonight on the Dingers Podcast as we discusses the Arrieta singing and much more. We will be streaming on the ChiCitySports youtube and you can listen later on all the places where you get your Podcasts.
 

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