Darlington: Robinson Tag Could Get Ugly

[Pegger]

Robinson has actually handled this well. He has made it known he doesn't want to be tagged, but hasn't threatened a hold out or anything. He's actually made a point not to burn any bridges with the Bears. I'd personally pay him the money. I'd be fine with tagging him, letting him play on the tag for a year and then letting him walk after the year. But if I got a good sense that he wouldn't not play on the tag at all, I'd much rather pay him what he wants than let him walk if I am the Bears.

4 years, 85Mil. 5 years, 101Mil if the 100M number is signficant to him. You probably only have to guarantee 3 years of that, which still only puts him at 30. It really doesn't matter if you think he's worth it. It's about the cost/production ratio. Robinson should be productive enough to justify the money, especially on an offense where there's possibly only 1 other big money player for the foreseeable future (Whitehair, can cut Leno whenever you want basically).

If you're Pace and you're trying to keep a job, you have to keep Robinson. If you add a veteran QB, he needs Robinson to perform and potentially save everyone's jobs. If you add a rookie QB, he needs Robinson to develop, which could potentially save everyone's jobs.

The one thing we have to remember is that while in Jacksonville going into the last year on his rookie deal Robinson wanted to put up big numbers then hit free agency. In his first game of that season he tore his ACL and ultimately had to watch other WRs get paid more. He's shown a history of betting on himself, but also have a history of that not working in his favor. I'm speculating here, but if I was him, knowing the history is what is it, would I play under the franchise tag? That next contract could easily be $10M+ less if he gets hurt.

 

[Montucky]

Looking at their roster they do have some talent. Brown and Boykin are solid on the outside and Duvernay should be a solid slot. After that, they do involve their TEs and RBs a bit in the pass game, so it's not like there's a screaming NEED to add a WR.

This is the exact reason I think the Ravens shop for quality over quantity at receiver this year. They have a stable of solid guys, including Mark Andrews. They don't really have a weakness in quality receiver depth, their weakness is that the closest thing they have to a number one is Mark Andrews. Andrews is a nice player and all but he's not a number one the way Travis Kelce is a number one.

 

[dennehy]

Boykin and Duverney combined have under 700 receiving yards in three total seasons. Less than half of what Anthony Miller has in three seasons.

 

[bamainatlanta]

package him in a deal to trade up is the only way

Correct. Get what we can and avoid the messy divorce. Use him and the 20th pick and move up!

 

[Pegger]

The money to Stanley is already committed. Just because he got hurt doesn't mean they can back out of that commitment. Are they really going to sign Orlando Brown Jr. to a massive payday just in case the massive payday they just gave Ronnie Stanley doesn't pan out due to injury? Especially when Ronnie Stanley was arguably the best overall player at his position before the injury? Doubt that, seriously doubt that.

As for Jackson there's no way he plays on his fifth year option without an extension. Fifth year option for a Pro Bowler is at the franchise tag rate, which for quarterbacks has to be getting near thirty million these days. Next season is his last "cheap" season and they will probably lock him up before that sometime over the summer, same way the Chiefs saved themselves a massive crunch by locking up Mahomes a year early.

They could let Jackson walk I suppose, there's definitely an argument that he isn't worth twenty percent of a team's cap. But I doubt that happens.

Either way, next year starts a bit of a cap crunch for them. And its Brown Jr. demanding the trade, not the Ravens actively shopping him. Orlando Brown Jr. clearly has his eyes set on making the kind of money Ronnie Stanley just got, and there's arguably no team in the league in less of a position to give him that money than the team he's currently on.

Couple thoughts on your comments:

RE: Already committed to Stanley - You are correct. Cutting him is a large negative cap number. My comments were strictly based on his injury. If he's not the player he once was and is no longer worth the remainder of his contract going into the 2022 season they can designate him a post June 1st cut. What's more likely is they roll with him again, but my comments were geared toward his injury. I fully understand he's got a big contract, but if he's no longer worth the NFL has a long history of cutting players to get out of deals.

RE: "no way he plays on his fifth year option without an extension" - Why not? If Jackson gets hurt like Dak did might they want to make sure he's healthy before they extend?

RE: "next year starts a bit of a cap crunch for them" - Going into the 2022 season their 'cap crunch' has them at $91M. Granted they have a lot of pending FAs, most notable is Lamar Jackson, but they will have ~$128M to deal with that issue. That's hardly a cap crunch. Just to compare the Bears will have ~$99M in cap space, but also have some big FAs like Roquon Smith, James Daniels AND they might still need to address the QB position.

Back to the Ravens for a bit. Why would you pay a QB up to 20% of your salary cap and not protect him?

If the medical on Stanley comes back good, then there's no worries. If not, you still have to do all you can to keep Jackson healthy.

Here's one leverage item that's important. Orlando Brown Jr. is still under contract for the 2021 season. His cap hit is $1.1M. He has the right to ask for a trade or a raise, but he has a lot less leverage than Robinson. If the Bears want to keep Robinson they only 2 options:

1. Franchise tag him - The calculation is based on the top 5 salaries for that respective position. Using the 2020 number as an estimate that would cost the Bears ~$14.3M.
2. Be the highest bidder - This means the Bears can control how the contract looks on their cap, but when you combine the signing/roster bonuses you should anticipate paying ~$20M a season.

Talking about the Ravens like they 'need to make a move' or 'are in trouble soon' just isn't true. They did a good job at drafting and in this weird season have a solid amount of cap space available. If I'm them I see which FAs teams are forced to cut, grab a few value guys and make a serious run for the title while they are still in this position. Hell, if they want Robinson why not wait to see if he's a FA? If he's not an option then target Godwin, Juju or Davis. At the end of the day the Ravens have more fire power in terms of cap space then most teams.

 

[Pegger]

Boykin and Duverney combined have under 700 receiving yards in three total seasons. Less than half of what Anthony Miller has in three seasons.

Boykin will be 25 and Duverney will be 24. Add in Marquise Brown who will be 24.

All those guys have had flashes and have been drafted to develop into roles. Assuming the Ravens don't have a plan for all 3 and they need to replace amazing vets like Willie Snead and a 32 year old Dez Bryant is not reading the tea leaves. We have to remember this passing offense put up insane passing efficiency numbers with probably a less talented group of receivers than they will have in 2021.

 

[dreadpirateroberts]

Could a Robinson for Brown Jr. deal work? I’m sure draft picks will have to be included. Robinson goes to a favorable situation in Baltimore and the Bears fix one end of their tackle situation in Brown Jr.

 

[Montucky]

Couple thoughts on your comments:

RE: Already committed to Stanley - You are correct. Cutting him is a large negative cap number. My comments were strictly based on his injury. If he's not the player he once was and is no longer worth the remainder of his contract going into the 2022 season they can designate him a post June 1st cut. What's more likely is they roll with him again, but my comments were geared toward his injury. I fully understand he's got a big contract, but if he's no longer worth the NFL has a long history of cutting players to get out of deals.

Cutting Ronnie Stanley after the 2021 season would incur a $36,000,000 dead cap figure, and $18,000,000+ the year after. Its just not at all realistic that they move on from him before the 2024 off-season. The money is committed for better or worse.

RE: "no way he plays on his fifth year option without an extension" - Why not? If Jackson gets hurt like Dak did might they want to make sure he's healthy before they extend?

Look I am not very keen on the idea of Lamar Jackson as a quarterback a team can win a title with, especially if he's getting paid like a top five quarterback, but the guy does have an MVP and three playoff appearances to his name. His accomplishes blow Dak Prescott's out of the water. Of quarterbacks drafted since Russell Wilson it would be very difficult to make an argument that anyone other than Pat Mahomes is more accomplished than Lamar Jackson.

Those guys simply do not make it to the fifth year option of their contracts. The player wants a commitment, the team wants a commitment and usually something is worked out after the third season. That's the precedent for guys who win an MVP or at least play at an MVP level while on their rookie contracts.

RE: "next year starts a bit of a cap crunch for them" - Going into the 2022 season their 'cap crunch' has them at $91M. Granted they have a lot of pending FAs, most notable is Lamar Jackson, but they will have ~$128M to deal with that issue. That's hardly a cap crunch. Just to compare the Bears will have ~$99M in cap space, but also have some big FAs like Roquon Smith, James Daniels AND they might still need to address the QB position.

The reason the Ravens have all that cap room is because they have zero commitments to an edge rusher past next season. The most expensive position on defense and they have none under contract after next year. Not even a mediocre veteran or developmental guy.

Hitting free agency this year are Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue. Next year it will be Lamar Jackson, Orlando Brown Jr., Deshone Eliot, Mark Andrews, Calais Campbell, Brandon Williams and Jimmy Smith. So yeah, their commitments aren't there but that's as much of a curse as it is a blessing. Converting $128,000,000 in cap space to cover all those holes? Not really possible. Especially not possible handing two hundred million dollar contracts to Ronnie Stanley and Orlando Brown Jr each.

Back to the Ravens for a bit. Why would you pay a QB up to 20% of your salary cap and not protect him?

Its a salary cap league. I tend to agree with this sentiment but Orlando Brown Jr. is clearly intent on getting paid like a left tackle, and the Ravens aren't in a position to pay two left tackles massive veteran contracts.

Here's one leverage item that's important. Orlando Brown Jr. is still under contract for the 2021 season. His cap hit is $1.1M. He has the right to ask for a trade or a raise, but he has a lot less leverage than Robinson. If the Bears want to keep Robinson they only 2 options:

1. Franchise tag him - The calculation is based on the top 5 salaries for that respective position. Using the 2020 number as an estimate that would cost the Bears ~$14.3M.
2. Be the highest bidder - This means the Bears can control how the contract looks on their cap, but when you combine the signing/roster bonuses you should anticipate paying ~$20M a season.

Talking about the Ravens like they 'need to make a move' or 'are in trouble soon' just isn't true. They did a good job at drafting and in this weird season have a solid amount of cap space available. If I'm them I see which FAs teams are forced to cut, grab a few value guys and make a serious run for the title while they are still in this position. Hell, if they want Robinson why not wait to see if he's a FA? If he's not an option then target Godwin, Juju or Davis. At the end of the day the Ravens have more fire power in terms of cap space then most teams.

Chris Godwin is the only one that's a definite upgrade over Willie Snead IV. Ju Ju Smith-Schuster was just awful this past season and Corey Davis is kind of intriguing but nowhere near the level of Godwin or Allen Robinson II. The Ravens have to consider the cost in failing to upgrade at wide receiver as much as they have to factor in the cost of the wide receiver. If Smith-Schuster sucks, Corey Davis continues to underperform or Will Fuller V gets hurt like he has every year then the Ravens are in a worse place than before.

 

[wonky73]

Lets hope it happens because this regime deserves all the shit

I bet Pace shits at work Shitting

 

[The Big Grabowski]

Could a Robinson for Brown Jr. deal work? I’m sure draft picks will have to be included. Robinson goes to a favorable situation in Baltimore and the Bears fix one end of their tackle situation in Brown Jr.

That's what I was thinking. Probably easier to find a WR than a tackle. This would also make it possible to upgrade both tackle positions and cut both Massie and Leno

 

[Warden of the Northeast]

Just imagine how many 50/50 balls he would whiff on if he got tagged...you thought last year was bad.

 

[bears26]

I think Robinson, if he is willing to work with the new team, would be worth a 2nd round pick. Probably more in a packaged trade up deal.

I am thinking if they trade him and I have thinking this all along. If the Bears want a QB in the draft, they may try and trade Robinson (or another player) in effort to move higher up in the first rd. If they did that, then they would be in the range to draft one of the QBs or to easier move up even further in the first round of the draft.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Robinson for Watson straight up then Robinson doesn't work out a deal and returns

Fucking brilliant.

 

[WindyCity]

Didn't the knew CBA increase fines for holdouts? Or does that not apply to tagged players?

Doesn’t apply

 

[PrideisBears]

Doesn’t apply

You ready for minshew-mania?

 

[1ke]

Nothing messy about this. Players get tagged every year. This isnt new. Dont see what all the fuss is about. He will either sign the tag, or get traded. Pretty simple.

 

[Pegger]

Cutting Ronnie Stanley after the 2021 season would incur a $36,000,000 dead cap figure, and $18,000,000+ the year after. Its just not at all realistic that they move on from him before the 2024 off-season. The money is committed for better or worse.


Look I am not very keen on the idea of Lamar Jackson as a quarterback a team can win a title with, especially if he's getting paid like a top five quarterback, but the guy does have an MVP and three playoff appearances to his name. His accomplishes blow Dak Prescott's out of the water. Of quarterbacks drafted since Russell Wilson it would be very difficult to make an argument that anyone other than Pat Mahomes is more accomplished than Lamar Jackson.

Those guys simply do not make it to the fifth year option of their contracts. The player wants a commitment, the team wants a commitment and usually something is worked out after the third season. That's the precedent for guys who win an MVP or at least play at an MVP level while on their rookie contracts.


The reason the Ravens have all that cap room is because they have zero commitments to an edge rusher past next season. The most expensive position on defense and they have none under contract after next year. Not even a mediocre veteran or developmental guy.

Hitting free agency this year are Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue. Next year it will be Lamar Jackson, Orlando Brown Jr., Deshone Eliot, Mark Andrews, Calais Campbell, Brandon Williams and Jimmy Smith. So yeah, their commitments aren't there but that's as much of a curse as it is a blessing. Converting $128,000,000 in cap space to cover all those holes? Not really possible. Especially not possible handing two hundred million dollar contracts to Ronnie Stanley and Orlando Brown Jr each.


Its a salary cap league. I tend to agree with this sentiment but Orlando Brown Jr. is clearly intent on getting paid like a left tackle, and the Ravens aren't in a position to pay two left tackles massive veteran contracts.


Chris Godwin is the only one that's a definite upgrade over Willie Snead IV. Ju Ju Smith-Schuster was just awful this past season and Corey Davis is kind of intriguing but nowhere near the level of Godwin or Allen Robinson II. The Ravens have to consider the cost in failing to upgrade at wide receiver as much as they have to factor in the cost of the wide receiver. If Smith-Schuster sucks, Corey Davis continues to underperform or Will Fuller V gets hurt like he has every year then the Ravens are in a worse place than before.

RE: Cutting Ronnie Stanley not an option - If he's a shell of the player he once was they would look to do a 2022 June 1st cut, where his cap number is neutral for 2022 and the remainder of his signing bonus would hit in 2023 as dead cap space. I think we are arguing over semantics. I agree that contract is done, but if he's not worth that money the team will look to replace/upgrade that position. All I'm saying is their LT spot is largely dependent on Stanley's recovery. The team will have a clear understanding of his health going into this year and if they think he hasn't recovered they will be moving on to a plan B.

RE: Ravens not having edge rushers in 2022 under contract - This is true, but they also have a massive amount of cap space AND they will probably draft 1-2 this year along with add a FA or two. Here's my point - In 2022 they have a not of projected cap space. Granted they will have contracts coming up, but they still have an advantage because they have more cap space then the Bears AND the players are currently under contract. If the team wants to extend early they have some leverage as the players will be motivated by a guaranteed signing bonus.

RE: Ravens aren't in a position to pay two left tackles - Actually they are, but that doesn't matter much. Brown Jr is under contract. If the team trades him they will be looking for 25 year old LT compensation. If the team extends him to play RT, they can make him the highest paid RT, which is top 5 LT money (Lane Johnson). If the team wants to play hard ball and guarantee him free agency, meaning he can be paid in 2022, then they have that option. I agree with Brown's stance on wanting to get paid, but he's also under contract. If he holds out and forces a trade then the Ravens will look to extract max value. That won't be 28 year old Robinson who's already guaranteed whatever the franchise tag number would be.

RE: "The Ravens have to consider the cost in failing to upgrade at wide receiver" - This is your opinion and not a fact. When I look at their receiving options of Brown/Boykin/Duvernay/Andrews/Boyle that's more talented than the Bears receivers minus Robinson. You are also talking about a team who's won Superbowls with the receiving combos of Quadry Ismail/Travis Taylor/Jermaine Lewis/Brandon Stokey/Shannon Sharpe(32 years old) AND Anquan Boldin (32 years old)/Torrey Smith/Jacoby Jones. Based on the teams history and long term success the Ravens don't feel they need a '#1' WR to win, so stop pretending that's how they feel.


I get it. You want a young, good LT like Orlando Brown Jr. and are hoping the Bears can pull off a tag-and-trade type scenario. That's completely normal for a fan of a team to want them to improve, but it's just not that realistic. A 25 year old LT on a cheap rookie deal is valued a lot higher than a 28 year old franchised WR. Along with that you are creating a scenario where the Ravens are in future cap problems while ignoring that the Bears are actually in a worse situation from a cap perspective. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's a long odds trade and probably won't happen. I'd add, if Pace tags Robinson and can't pull off the deal that can negatively impact the teams ability to get a QB or resign other players. Kirk Cousins has taught NFL teams that the franchise tag can go both ways. It's not the team's 'no brainer' negotiating tactic it used to be.

 

[Aesopian]

Alejandro Villanueva (32 years old)

2 times Pro Bowl tackle
Army Ranger
3 times Afghanistan veteran

Cam Robinson

Beast but injury issues

 

[Anytime23]

Afghanistan is for pussies.

No thanks!

 

[jsu34]

Alejando's best days are behind him unfortunately.