Does Anyone Know If We Could Use The Franchise Tag on Hester?

[BIGGIEsmalls 23]

Loosely related............

How come on special teams returns, our guys would try to pick up (at the last minute) a punted ball that was rolling on the ground?

It almost led to critical turnovers on a couple occasions.

 

[iueyedoc]

Your face can't be judged individually. Wait. What?

Sure it can. How you like me now.

 

[xer0h0ur]

:doorrofl:

 

[Slacker]

Loosely related............

How come on special teams returns, our guys would try to pick up (at the last minute) a punted ball that was rolling on the ground?

It almost led to critical turnovers on a couple occasions.

I didn't get to see all the games this year so I can't really answer but if the punting team accidentally touches the ball first then the receiving team cannot lose possession of the ball no matter what happens so trying to return it is the right play 100% of the time. Is it possible that it was that type of situation?

 

[nwfisch]

I didn't get to see all the games this year so I can't really answer but if the punting team accidentally touches the ball first then the receiving team cannot lose possession of the ball no matter what happens so trying to return it is the right play 100% of the time. Is it possible that it was that type of situation?

That's what I thought.

 

[Calabis]

I know you're not touting a return of Bobby Wade, but since you mentioned his name I thought I would look up some numbers.

According to profootball reference while in Chicago:
Bobby Wade fumbled every 3 games and averaged 9.3 yards per punt return with a TD every 40th punt return.
Devin Hester fumbled every 4 games and averages 12.3 yards per punt return with a TD every 20th punt return.

Bobby Wade did not return kickoffs in Chicago.
Hester led the NFL in kickoff return yards in 2013.

I seriously don't understand people who are bagging on Hester. Of course if he wants 4 million or something ridiculous the Bears need to move on, but Hester is still one of the best returners in the NFL today. Those that don't seem to understand that must not realize just how insanely lucky Chicago has been to have him at his absolute peak when he was producing at a level that may never be surpassed. Hester as a returner only is far more valuable to the Bears than bumping up the best guy on the practice squad to the last spot on the 53 man roster. If Hester will play for 2 million or less he needs to be re-signed IMO.

And to those that say Hester can play WR or DB, lol. Hester should never see the field unless the opposing punter/kicker are on the field.

This^^^^^^^

he was top 5 in KR and PR and for some reason people want to get rid of him...he gets one decent return and teams start kicking away from him....his blocking sucks yet he still a top return man

 

[JDB_219]

Your saying a lot of teams have put two guys back on punt returns? When and Who?

Keith Jackson called it the twin safety formation. Googling produces a few references. It is definitely more common in college and high school but you would have said the same thing about the spread formation or the option a few years back.

 

[Jester]

This^^^^^^^

he was top 5 in KR and PR and for some reason people want to get rid of him...he gets one decent return and teams start kicking away from him....his blocking sucks yet he still a top return man

I don't see a lot of people wanting him gone. Most just want him to be paid what he is worth now and never want to see him play WR or DB ever again.

 

[Bearin' Down]

So you are saying he can't be judged individually against the other most frequent returners and he can't be judged against them as a whole? And suggesting the use of career stats is crazy. Are you suggesting keeping Hester at age 31/32 next year based on his stats from age 23-30?

I am saying you cannot use the aggregate sum to judge an individual performance. For instance, in that list were three people who averaged over 30 yards per kick. One that averaged 32 who had the second most attempts. That number, that individual performance, brought up the aggregate number. In fact, his average accounts for around 15% of the average you listed. CLEARLY, the aggregate total you are using to make your argument is skewed more towards his numbers, which are drastically different than anyone else's, as opposed to others.

So yes, your method of calculating the average is completely off base and out of whack. As for the best way to calculate it, I don't know that, but its definitely not the way you did it. Additionally, it would be hard to accurately calculate it because of the modification in kick off rules. One might postulate that the averages have gone down since Hester entered the league because the kickoff units are closer, but Hester's average this year 27.7 was higher than his career average of 24.8. His average since the kickoff rule has been 25.6. So, again, the best way to measure his success is unclear. What is clear though, is that it's not putting more weight on certain returners than other returners averages, especially when those returners averages far exceed everyone else.

 

[iueyedoc]

Keith Jackson called it the twin safety formation. Googling produces a few references. It is definitely more common in college and high school but you would have said the same thing about the spread formation or the option a few years back.

My problem is that your reasoning behind using the formation is not that it,in and of itself, is advantageous, but to cover for Hester's deficient thinking. That would be all fine and good if he was the once in a lifetime returner he once was, but he isn't. He is at the very very best a current top 5, and that is a stretch. When he was a can't leave your seat returner, he would be worth a ST only roster spot and special formations to hide his shortcomings. Wanting to keep him now is more about nostalgia sort of like wanting BU to play last year. Everyone wants him to set records as a Bear, but in reality he doesn't make the team that much if any better better.

 

[onebud34]

My problem is that your reasoning behind using the formation is not that it,in and of itself, is advantageous, but to cover for Hester's deficient thinking. That would be all fine and good if he was the once in a lifetime returner he once was, but he isn't. He is at the very very best a current top 5, and that is a stretch. When he was a can't leave your seat returner, he would be worth a ST only roster spot and special formations to hide his shortcomings. Wanting to keep him now is more about nostalgia sort of like wanting BU to play last year. Everyone wants him to set records as a Bear, but in reality he doesn't make the team that much if any better better.

Remember the day when it was Hester...and then everyone else?

 

[JDB_219]

I don't see a lot of people wanting him gone. Most just want him to be paid what he is worth now and never want to see him play WR or DB ever again.

I have read many posts and stories and heard people on the radio who are more than ready to be rid of him. I don't get it. He seems to be part of a desire by some to clean house.

 

[iueyedoc]

I am saying you cannot use the aggregate sum to judge an individual performance. For instance, in that list were three people who averaged over 30 yards per kick. One that averaged 32 who had the second most attempts. That number, that individual performance, brought up the aggregate number. In fact, his average accounts for around 15% of the average you listed. CLEARLY, the aggregate total you are using to make your argument is skewed more towards his numbers, which are drastically different than anyone else's, as opposed to others.

So yes, your method of calculating the average is completely off base and out of whack. As for the best way to calculate it, I don't know that, but its definitely not the way you did it. Additionally, it would be hard to accurately calculate it because of the modification in kick off rules. One might postulate that the averages have gone down since Hester entered the league because the kickoff units are closer, but Hester's average this year 27.7 was higher than his career average of 24.8. His average since the kickoff rule has been 25.6. So, again, the best way to measure his success is unclear. What is clear though, is that it's not putting more weight on certain returners than other returners averages, especially when those returners averages far exceed everyone else.

But your saying he can't be compared against other individuals because you deem their sample size too small and he can't be judged against the top ten aggregate because it's skewed. How can his current value then be judged?

If you just take the average of the other top ten averages without summing return yards and dividing, the other top 9 average 27.9 against Hester's 27.6. So Patterson doesn't really skew anything as a whole. The complete league average for return for 2013 which includes squibs, onside kicks, the linebacker blocker getting it, etc was 23.4. So Hester on average gets you 4.2 more yards without removing those anomalies. Sure he will likely take a few more back for TD's, but so will other kick returners. As a whole, I just don't see him providing much value.

 

[JDB_219]

My problem is that your reasoning behind using the formation is not that it,in and of itself, is advantageous, but to cover for Hester's deficient thinking. That would be all fine and good if he was the once in a lifetime returner he once was, but he isn't. He is at the very very best a current top 5, and that is a stretch. When he was a can't leave your seat returner, he would be worth a ST only roster spot and special formations to hide his shortcomings. Wanting to keep him now is more about nostalgia sort of like wanting BU to play last year. Everyone wants him to set records as a Bear, but in reality he doesn't make the team that much if any better better.

I actually do like the formation on its own merits, the extra help for Hester is a bonus.

I see the Bears as short on big playmakers, so I'm not running any off If the price is right.

 

[Bearin' Down]

But your saying he can't be compared against other individuals because you deem there sample size too small and he can't be judged against the top ten aggregate because it's skewed.
If you just take the average of the other top ten averages without summing return yards and dividing, the other top 9 average 27.9 against Hester's 27.6. So Patterson doesn't really skew anything as a whole. The complete league average for return for 2013 which includes squibs, onside kicks, the linebacker blocker getting it, etc was 23.4. So Hester on average gets you 4.2 more yards without removing those anomalies. Sure he will likely take a few more back for TD's, but so will other kick returners. As a whole, I just don't see him providing much value.

If you take the top ten average then it shows that he is worse than the top ten, when in fact he was the sixth best. So, you can tell, it is skewed. However, I agree, he shouldn't be worth that much. Which was why I wanted to find a loop hole through the franchise tag. But alas, it didn't work out. As far as how to accurately judge an NFL return man who takes 50+ back versus one who doesn't take 30 back but has a 105 yarder in there, I'm not sure there is a good way. But any way you toss the dice, Hester was still a top 10, and arguably, top 5 returner. Would I want to pay 2 million for him. NO. I probably wouldn't even shell out 1.2 million for him.

 

[iueyedoc]

Remember the day when it was Hester...and then everyone else?

Sure do and boy would it be nice to have that guy on the Bears.

 

[Calabis]

I don't see a lot of people wanting him gone. Most just want him to be paid what he is worth now and never want to see him play WR or DB ever again.

Oh ok..im cool with that...although if all hell breaks loose with injuries to receivers...he wouldn't be the worst replacement

 

[iueyedoc]

If you take the top ten average then it shows that he is worse than the top ten, when in fact he was the sixth best. So, you can tell, it is skewed. However, I agree, he shouldn't be worth that much. Which was why I wanted to find a loop hole through the franchise tag. But alas, it didn't work out. As far as how to accurately judge an NFL return man who takes 50+ back versus one who doesn't take 30 back but has a 105 yarder in there, I'm not sure there is a good way. But any way you toss the dice, Hester was still a top 10, and arguably, top 5 returner. Would I want to pay 2 million for him. NO. I probably wouldn't even shell out 1.2 million for him.

No, he is slightly worse than the average of those 9 others, which would be around 5 or 6th, which is right were he is. Anyway, my main point is while he is still good at his craft, he isn't indispensable and his lack of other positional help is a big negative with a team in need of depth at many spots. He is a luxury at this point. Sort of like a 8 year old Cadillac, still a nice ride, but it's not like it impresses the neighbors anymore.

 

[JDB_219]

Oh ok..im cool with that...although if all hell breaks loose with injuries to receivers...he wouldn't be the worst replacement

At this point I'd be curious to see how he does with another shot at WR but it looks like that won't be for the Bears.

I just can't believe he is so bad that he can't be used at all. Guy has a lot of NFL receptions.

 

[ZenBear34]

my issue with hester has more to do with his decision making then his numbers.

the kick-off stuff, for example. how many times did he take it out of the endzone 5 or 6 yards deep? so he runs it back to the 22 yard line, but why? that's a 27 yard return that doesn't help your team at all. he also fumbled FOUR times on kick-offs, and he only fumbled 6 times in his career before this season on kick-offs.

also on punts, there were many times where it looked like he should have returned the punt but instead put his hand up for a fair catch.

hester is still a good return man, but it's the decision making and the occasional "where the fuck is he going" along with the fact that he'll be 32 this year that tells me it's time to move on. in the end, i feel he's lost the athleticism to make up for his poor decision making and the mistakes are only going to get worse. add in the fact that he literally does nothing for the team other then return kicks and punts and i don't see how you can justify paying him anything close to what he has been making.