Drafting out of Desperation

[Big Tyme D]

Jets pick at 6. And like Windy said, if a QB is good enough to go 6.....what's 3 picks higher?

Because there are a lot of much better prospects ahead of him. I said they 'may' pick one.... as in might... but I doubt it. But if they want to reach ... let'em. If the Bears draft one of these guys #3 and he bust..... while players like Adams and/or Latimore are starting in the Probowl... these fickle fans will be yelling for blood and swearing they knew the F.O. should have done the opposite of what they are demanding now.

Just because you draft a QB at #3 who should have gone much later ... does not make suddenly make him a franchise QB.... it just means even more people will have a bitch fit if he bust because he was a major reach to begin with.

 

[Luke]

IMO, Trubisky and Mahomes would be worthy of taking a shot on them in bottom half of 1st round, Watson and Kizer no earlier then 2nd round.

Bottom line, if a QB prospect needs to sit and learn for a season or two, then he's not worthy of Top 15 pick, and not a single QB from this years class is ready to start from Day 1.

Bottom half of the first round is where the value lies. I would actually expand that to 20-25. Look at Lynch last year, Mayock had him ranked 20, DJ 27. A week before the draft, I created a thread saying that the bears could trade down, pick up more picks and still get him. Practically the entire board told me that he would be gone in the top 10. ok.

 

[gilder121]

I would be happy trading down and picking up an extra pick or two while still ultimately getting a guy that will likely sit this year. Mainly, I just want pace to draft the quarterback in this draft he believes in most, however that happens. I'm fine to do that at 3 because that way we will likely have the choice of quarterback. I don't see 3 as a particularly strong draft slot this year (relative to other years) so it may be difficult to trade out, and the other (non-qb) options all seem to have question marks as well.

 

[Big Tyme D]

OP is operating under the assumption that there is no QB in this draft that will wind up worth a top 10 pick.

I'm not proposing to assume anything.

It doesnt take a brain surgeon to look back at multiple sources over the past decade... compile the ratings they have assigned to the various players.... and draw a conclusion based on those numbers and make predictions based on there of.

A notable trend... based on those ratings.... no QB who was not rated in the top ten of his class... has been drafted top five for the past ten seasons.... not ONE. And again... Im not basing the ratings on one source or at random or from my guestimate... but rather the average ratings complied after viewing several sources. Further more the QBs who have rated similar to the ones at the top of the class this year have regularly been taken later in the 1st round or lower.. 2nd or 3rd round even.

How the Bears have the players rated on their big board... only the team truly knows... but everything we do as fans is speculative in nature and we can only go off of what we have access to.

 

[bearmick]

Because there are a lot of much better prospects ahead of him. I said they 'may' pick one.... as in might... but I doubt it. But if they want to reach ... let'em.

It's not a reach though if they like the QB. You're falling into the same mistake as some other posters here, which is viewing QBs as merely another position on the BPA board equal to other positions. It isn't. Unless you're picking first overall in a Peyton Manning/Andrew Luck draft, QB will never be your BPA in the first couple of rounds, especially the first.

The unique importance of the position means if you hit on a QB and he becomes your franchise player, it's far more valuable than any player at any other position. The 10th best QB in the league is stratospherically more important and valuable than Myles Garrett could ever possibly be even if he became a perennial all-pro.

Therefore, it comes down to whether the GM feels a targeted QB can be his franchise guy. If he thinks so, no pick is too high. You literally cannot overdraft a franchise QB.

This doesn't come down to value, it comes down to the fact that you believe every QB in this draft will be mediocre or total busts. You seem to take the opinions of "draft experts" as gospel (even though they're wrong all the time). I don't. I think Deshaun Watson is special and I hope Pace takes him at #3.

 

[iueyedoc]

it would be foolish for the Bears to draft a QB out of a perceived desperation at #3 when none are worthy of being picked that high. This year the Browns and 49ers are in worst shape QB wise than the Bears... but no one think they will pass or Garrett or Thomas...genuine top five talent.... but they think the Bears should?
2017... no QBs ranked top ten, three QBs ranked top 30..... yet people want us to draft one at #3

Mitchel Trubisky has a 6.5 draft grade by NFL.com, tied for 7th. Garrett is at 7.6, head and shoulders above the rest, he will go as BPA at #1, so now, if SF doesn't take him, the Bears will be faced with a DE with a 6.8, a RB at 6.8, a couple safeties at 6.7 and 6.6, and Trubisky at 6.5, how would you not justify taking Trubisky? He is is the same grade range of the BPA's, is at a position of great need,is at THE position of greatest value in all of sports. And yes, the Bears will not likely be in striking range of similar talent anytime in the near future. If you can have a top 12 NFL QB or a top 3 S, you take the QB every day, twice on Sunday.

 

[rawdawg]

Not suggesting to not draft a QB.. just not at #3.

The problem with this logic is.....you get what you pay for. If you don't take a QB at 3, you are pretty much guaranteed to NOT get the 1st one. If you don't get the first one, that lowers your chances of getting the best one. If you don't get the best one, odds are, you are getting a QB that's not good enough. If you don't get a QB that's good enough....then what's the point? You are drafting a QB for the sake of drafting a QB.

Not OK with taking a QB at 3, but think it's justified for a team to take one at 6 or 12? What's the damn difference? 3-9 picks? Picks that the Bears don't even have and don't have possible to get, if they want the best QB. You can't just go, "oh well, we lost too many games to get the best QB because we don't want to pick the 12th best prospect at 3". Just like you'll have the issue of not losing enough games to get the #1 pick where elite QBs are typically taken. That's how you end up with Jay Cutler owning all your franchise passing records. Because you settle for a QB when you feel comfortable taking him.....after everyone else has already yaken who they've wanted.

 

[AussieBear]

I think positional value exists and should be factored in though. A top 10-15 QB is going to make a bigger difference to your team than an elite safety or CB.

If you knew how their careers would turn out before you drafted them, would you choose Earl Thomas or Philip Rivers? Matthew Stafford or Patrick Peterson?

I know what I am taking.

earl thomas i guess... hes the only champion on the list...

STRAWMAN ALERT: Nobody suggested trading three 1s or close to it.

okay.. pick 3... 2 2nds.. fat contract.. close enough..

 

[Mdbearz]

My concept of why we will not pick a QB at 3 is based upon not only the talking head rating them much lower (out of the top ten), but also the actions of the FO to address the QB position already.

They are convinced that Glennon can and will start, and therefore gave him a contract that is too much for a back-up, but on the lowest end of a starter. This is not the actions of an organization that is planning on selection a QB at 3.

Am I being gullible, or is it as plain as the nose on my face? I think to assume that taking Glennon was just a smoke screen/gap solution is less likely than to assume that they think Glennon is a better prospect than anyone in this draft.

 

[AussieBear]

It's not a reach though if they like the QB. You're falling into the same mistake as some other posters here, which is viewing QBs as merely another position on the BPA board equal to other positions. It isn't. Unless you're picking first overall in a Peyton Manning/Andrew Luck draft, QB will never be your BPA in the first couple of rounds, especially the first.

The unique importance of the position means if you hit on a QB and he becomes your franchise player, it's far more valuable than any player at any other position. The 10th best QB in the league is stratospherically more important and valuable than Myles Garrett could ever possibly be even if he became a perennial all-pro.

Therefore, it comes down to whether the GM feels a targeted QB can be his franchise guy. If he thinks so, no pick is too high. You literally cannot overdraft a franchise QB.

This doesn't come down to value, it comes down to the fact that you believe every QB in this draft will be mediocre or total busts. You seem to take the opinions of "draft experts" as gospel (even though they're wrong all the time). I don't. I think Deshaun Watson is special and I hope Pace takes him at #3.

so ur saying 2015 alex smith > 2015 jj watt??

 

[Big Tyme D]

Mitchel Trubisky has a 6.5 draft grade by NFL.com, tied for 7th. Garrett is at 7.6, head and shoulders above the rest, he will go as BPA at #1, so now, if SF doesn't take him, the Bears will be faced with a DE with a 6.8, a RB at 6.8, a couple safeties at 6.7 and 6.6, and Trubisky at 6.5, how would you not justify taking Trubisky? He is is the same grade range of the BPA's, is at a position of great need,is at THE position of greatest value in all of sports. And yes, the Bears will not likely be in striking range of similar talent anytime in the near future. If you can have a top 12 NFL QB or a top 3 S, you take the QB every day, twice on Sunday.

Those are only one source of ratings.... not all.

Also... all ratings aside... I simply don't think much of most of the QBs from this class.... they all need major work and time to develop. I'ld just as soon draft one at a lower round..... and IF the need exist next season... draft again. Though the team isnt likely to be top five again... but the talent level that should be available picking in the teens would be equivalent to the picking the top talent this year... or they can make a trade up next year to grab a QB from what early looks to be a stronger class of prospects.

 

[iueyedoc]

Those are only one source of ratings.... not all.

Also... all ratings aside... I simply don't think much of most of the QBs from this class.... they all need major work and time to develop. I'ld just as soon draft one at a lower round..... and IF the need exist next season... draft again. Though the team isnt likely to be top five again... but the talent level that should be available picking in the teens would be equivalent to the picking the top talent this year... or they can make a trade up next year to grab a QB from what early looks to be a stronger class of prospects.

You can keep buying cheap low grade diamond rings year after year and hope your wife is fooled or impressed, or you can go to Jared and get that one that sparkles and she will love it for years. It costs a bit more than it should but you are happier and so is she.

 

[Giant Panda]

Because there are a lot of much better prospects ahead of him. I said they 'may' pick one.... as in might... but I doubt it. But if they want to reach ... let'em. If the Bears draft one of these guys #3 and he bust..... while players like Adams and/or Latimore are starting in the Probowl... these fickle fans will be yelling for blood and swearing they knew the F.O. should have done the opposite of what they are demanding now.

Just because you draft a QB at #3 who should have gone much later ... does not make suddenly make him a franchise QB.... it just means even more people will have a bitch fit if he bust because he was a major reach to begin with.

Isn't that how Angelo stuck around so long? He had a sizable list of 1st round busts(To go along with the gems he'd occasionally find later on in the draft), but not too many 1st round reaches... If the guy sucked he had injuries or just plain bad luck to blame for a guy not panning out. That's easier to explain away than I chose a guy 10+ spots ahead of where he was projected and he ended up sucking.

 

[AussieBear]

You can keep buying cheap low grade diamond rings year after year and hope your wife is fooled or impressed, or you can go to Jared and get that one that sparkles and she will love it for years. It costs a bit more than it should but you are happier and so is she.

or go to africa and get you a jared diamond for 1/100th of the cheap low grade

 

[WindyCity]

Ranked by who?

Oh, media guys. The same guys that did not even know who Wentz was before the combine and were still jerking it to Conner Cook [McShay], or the guy who totally flips his rankings in April, not based on film study but what he is hearing [Mayock], or the fact that none of them thought Dak Prescott could be a decent NFL QB.

Drafting a CB because you are desperate is stupid, but drafting a QB is not nearly as stupid because it is the one position in football that you cannot win without.



Better idea, your GM does not allow you to get desperate at the only position that really matters.

 

[WindyCity]

Bottom half of the first round is where the value lies. I would actually expand that to 20-25. Look at Lynch last year, Mayock had him ranked 20, DJ 27. A week before the draft, I created a thread saying that the bears could trade down, pick up more picks and still get him. Practically the entire board told me that he would be gone in the top 10. ok.

QBs always go 10-15 picks higher than they probably should based on equal waiting of grades.

Unfortunately the grades are not looked at equal.


It is like 7'ers in basketball. They are rare so you need to over draft them.

 

[bearmick]

so ur saying 2015 alex smith > 2015 jj watt??

Why go back two years to 2015 specifically? Because that year, the 10th rated QB happened to be an ageing game manager having one of his best seasons?

I don't know many people who would consider Alex Smith a top 10 QB. He was 22nd last year, which is probably closer to his ranking.

Russell Wilson was 10th. Yes, Russell Wilson is more valuable than JJ Watt. Taking age out of the equation, since they're not going to be drafting 34-year olds, yes a top 10 QB is more valuable than JJ Watt.

 

[Luke]

Isn't that how Angelo stuck around so long? He had a sizable list of 1st round busts(To go along with the gems he'd occasionally find later on in the draft), but not too many 1st round reaches... If the guy sucked he had injuries or just plain bad luck to blame for a guy not panning out. That's easier to explain away than I chose a guy 10+ spots ahead of where he was projected and he ended up sucking.

in this years draft its more like 25 spots, almost an entire round.

 

[WindyCity]

Those are only one source of ratings.... not all.

Also... all ratings aside... I simply don't think much of most of the QBs from this class.... they all need major work and time to develop. I'ld just as soon draft one at a lower round..... and IF the need exist next season... draft again. Though the team isnt likely to be top five again... but the talent level that should be available picking in the teens would be equivalent to the picking the top talent this year... or they can make a trade up next year to grab a QB from what early looks to be a stronger class of prospects.

Work and time can be given, pretty easily.


What cannot be is top level athletic skills and intangibles.


Heaven forbid our coaches earn their damn salaries and develop someone. Let me know the last QB that didn't need some work.

 

[AussieBear]

Ranked by who?

Oh, media guys. The same guys that did not even know who Wentz was before the combine and were still jerking it to Conner Cook [McShay], or the guy who totally flips his rankings in April, not based on film study but what he is hearing [Mayock], or the fact that none of them thought Dak Prescott could be a decent NFL QB.

Drafting a CB because you are desperate is stupid, but drafting a QB is not nearly as stupid because it is the one position in football that you cannot win without.



Better idea, your GM does not allow you to get desperate at the only position that really matters.

tom brady behind 5 omifails.... not good yo..not good...... team on up matters..