Drafting out of Desperation

Big Tyme D

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Depending on your school of thought... the Bears currently may or may not be desperate for a QB. Many feel that Glennon may provide the answer if not long term, for at least the short term as to eliminate the desperate need to draft a QB early this year. Others feel that he is complete garbage and changes nothing... the team is still in desperate need of a QB.

Which brings me to this...

For years following the draft... I've always heard this term used in a negative sense. Most of the time when a team drafts a player to fill a position out of desperation.... they may tend to over draft and more often than not... the player fails to meet up to expectations. I've heard this term used in regards to many teams , including the Bears, and regardless of position being drafted.

So my question is... why is this general rule seemingly being ignored this year by much of the fan base?

I look at this draft class... and I compare it to the draft classes of the past ten years... and the trend typically is to not over draft period, even if looking for a QB. Most GMs will take the BPA even if the team needs a QB... esp in the top five. The top QBs taken every year for the past decade, with few exceptions, have seldom been top five picks unless they were genuinely rated top five talent. Other wise they fell and was drafted accordingly.... later in the first or even drifting into the second or later rounds.

People keep saying we'll never pick #3 again... we need to get the that franchise QB now! But if the talent at QB really isn't worth a top five pick.. wouldn't it be better for the team to actually get a probable deference maker on defense rather than a project QB at #3?

2016.. both Goff and Wentz were top 10 talent and went 1, 2
2015.. Winston and Mariotta both top five went 1, 2
2014.. Bortels only top five ranked went 3
2013.. No one was ranked top ten.... no one went top ten
2012.. Luck, Griffith and Tannehill ranked 1, 2 and 8..... went 1, 2 and 8


Do we see a trend...? And yes it continues in that fashion year after year. and yes every year there are teams in desperate need of QB at the top... else they likely wouldn't be at the top. If they had reached for the QBs ranked below the ones mentioned who went in the bottom of the first or later rounds as many here are suggesting the Bears do... for every Derek Carr there are five Manziels or Geno Smiths or Brandon Weedens the teams would have likely drafted.......... i.e. the talent range of the top QBs this year and why it would be foolish for the Bears to draft a QB out of a perceived desperation at #3 when none are worthy of being picked that high. This year the Browns and 49ers are in worst shape QB wise than the Bears... but no one think they will pass or Garrett or Thomas...genuine top five talent.... but they think the Bears should?
2017... no QBs ranked top ten, three QBs ranked top 30..... yet people want us to draft one at #3
 

Giant Panda

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I think they'll continue building the house with this draft...

Guys are setting themselves up for disappointment if they believe we're drafting a QB at 3. Glennon is the giant writing on the wall... Picking a QB at 3 that everyone is saying they'll have to red shirt is the same as saying they're not doing everything they can to make this team better NOW.

If that's the case and everybody on the staff was on board with red shirting the Golden Child #3 overall pick, no threat to be canned and little pressure to perform as a team since #3 overall pick is gonna rescue us in 2018 they might as well should have brought Hoyer back... They could have made a more concerted effort at trying to suck again...

Point is, I don't see any teams thinking like this. So if Glennon surprises everyone and becomes franchise we just wasted a pick? QB trade bait sounds cute for a team that hasn't had a franchise QB since before the merge, but I doubt we're getting anything as high as a #3 overall pick back. If a team sucks so bad that they need to trade for a QB, odds are they'll be picking high enough to draft and mold their own guy as is. I'm sure there isn't a league wide demand for Bears developed QB's.
 

PolarBear

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Your idea of value or whether the QB is worthy of the #3 pick is completely subjective.

I personally would rank Trubisky over guys like Goff, Wentz, Bortles and Tannehill as prospects and he isn't far behind Mariota, Winston or Griffin for me. Heck, if Trubisky had one more year on tape where he showed growth and put up similar numbers, the only QB I would take over him would be Luck.

I think Trubisky has the ability to be a top 10 QB in this league and I would rank him as the #2 player on my board after Garrett considering the position of QB is the most important in all of football.

Just because the talking heads say there is no QB worth taking at #3 doesn't mean there won't be a QB in this class worth it in the end. I think there is plenty of evidence of them getting it wrong out there.

Remember when the great Mike Mayock vouched heavily for Blaine Gabbertt?
 

Starion

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3 things about desperation mode:

1. Easy to buy into media hype about QBs because it's an annually force-fed gush-fest over QB prospects. That's the sexy air time thing to talk about...especially when there's no consensus.

2. As such they overvalue the top tier QBs this class because drafting a savior gives warm and fuzzy feelings of HOPE, even if he sits and develops, they still have some hope that steps have been taken to address the need.

3. Yet, they completely undervalue or write off the possibility of Glennon meeting that need for no apparent reason except for a limited, 2 year gap history of NFL success. Yet even so, they disregard Glennon's stats, as arguably subjective at best because to meatballs, winning means everything regardless of why or how. Tampa was a terrible team and didn't win many games, so clearly Glennon is overpaid (#24 ranked starter pay) garbage incapable of being good.

bonus - None seem to care or consider IF the savior QB might be available in 2018 draft or FA that could step in and start right away. Yet MOST of the same meatballs all expect a 6-7 win season this year. If so, this is why they care so much about getting the prospect now to start the clock on his training & experience?

I agree with the OP and disagree with these reasons, but just figuring on why people think this way. It's too bad Pace & Fox can't speak up to their own defense with more specifics on their rebuilding plan. Hopefully meatballers won't sink the ship before the pieces get put together.
 

AussieBear

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cause some fans wanted to trade 3 1st round picks for jimmy and pay him 120+ over 7.
 

Bearly

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Your idea of value or whether the QB is worthy of the #3 pick is completely subjective.

I personally would rank Trubisky over guys like Goff, Wentz, Bortles and Tannehill as prospects and he isn't far behind Mariota, Winston or Griffin for me. Heck, if Trubisky had one more year on tape where he showed growth and put up similar numbers, the only QB I would take over him would be Luck.

I think Trubisky has the ability to be a top 10 QB in this league and I would rank him as the #2 player on my board after Garrett considering the position of QB is the most important in all of football.

Just because the talking heads say there is no QB worth taking at #3 doesn't mean there won't be a QB in this class worth it in the end. I think there is plenty of evidence of them getting it wrong out there.

Remember when the great Mike Mayock vouched heavily for Blaine Gabbertt?

I tend to agree with most of that but that ranking is our opinion and not fact. I think Big Tyme is simply stating that we should stay true to our board and If a QB is a consensus top prospect he shouldn't even be available at 3. Every teams board will be different and if Trubs is in our top dozen or so, he should be strongly considered but he may not be.
 

PolarBear

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I tend to agree with most of that but that ranking is our opinion and not fact. I think Big Tyme is simply stating that we should stay true to our board and If a QB is a consensus top prospect he shouldn't even be available at 3. Every teams board will be different and if Trubs is in our top dozen or so, he should be strongly considered but he may not be.

I think positional value exists and should be factored in though. A top 10-15 QB is going to make a bigger difference to your team than an elite safety or CB.

If you knew how their careers would turn out before you drafted them, would you choose Earl Thomas or Philip Rivers? Matthew Stafford or Patrick Peterson?

I know what I am taking.
 

Hammer

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Looking at last few QB classes, I'd say only 2015 (Winston, Mariotta) and 2012 (Luck, Griffin) weren't overdrafted out of "desperation" for young talent at QB position (with Griffin unfortunately ending as bust because of injuries).

And as some already said here, it doesn't matter who we think worthy of #3 pick, it's Pace who makes decisions as Bears GM.
 

Big Tyme D

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I think positional value exists and should be factored in though. A top 10-15 QB is going to make a bigger difference to your team than an elite safety or CB.

If you knew how their careers would turn out before you drafted them, would you choose Earl Thomas or Philip Rivers? Matthew Stafford or Patrick Peterson?

I know what I am taking.
And there lies the issue.... you know how there careers have turned out. If I replaced the QBs mentioned with names like Gabbart or Mazeil..... who would you choose then? Would you still have drafted them over Thomas or Peterson? Who would you rather have on your team today.

this is a better comparison considering they weren't ranked at the tops of their respective classes

in 2010 Eric Berry was a top five rated Safety.... he was drafted #5.... the QBs that year were Bradford(1), Tebow(25), Clausen(48) and McCoy(85)... the only one rated top 10 of the class was Bradford and he went #1 the rest Clausen was top 20 and the others lower than that. If that draft had been this years draft..... the people here would have had us drafting Tebow or Clausen... just any body to have that QB................... but knowing what you know now of their careers and even knowing what you should have known then .... would you have picked any of them ahead of Berry? This is very similar too the situation the team faces this year... however Adams is considered more talented than Berry was coming out.... but QB talent is definitely in the same ball park.
 

Big Tyme D

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Lol @ Bortles and Tanehill were consensus top 10 picks. That is not accurate at all.

Wipe the sleep out your eyes..... i said Brotle was top ten and went #3 and I said Tanehill was #8 and went #8... d'uhhh that's top ten I do beleive.... so very accurate.
 

rawdawg

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For the people that don't think QB is worth a top 5 pick.....what pick do you think the top guy in this draft is worth?
 

Luke

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I've been beating this drum all winter but to no avail. I always try use my 3 favorite boards Mayock, DJ (only a couple years worth) and Scouts Inc. to show how the QBs were ranked. Mark Dominik said that the rule of thumb is that you can reached for a QB at the top of the draft if he is within the top 10 of your board. No other position should be reached for like that. Below is Mayocks rankings for the last 5 drafts. While not perfect, it does show that teams have selected the QB's when appropriately ranked. The only deviation was when Jax took Bortles at 3 when he was ranked 15 and we see how that has fared.. Another case citing Scouts Inc. grades are that I did not see a QB selected in the top 10 who did not have at least a 90 grade. I don't have that handy but posted it awhile back. Perhaps Trubs will break that mold this year. Current top Scouts QB grades - Trubs 88, Watson 87


Drafted player Mayock rank

2016

1 Goff 10
2 Wentz 1
26 Lynch 20

2015

1 Winston 6
2 Mariota 5

2014

3 Bortles 15
22 Manziel 10
32 Bridgewater 42

2013

16 Manuel 41

2012

1 Luck 1
2 Griffen 2
8 Tannehill 19
22 Weeden 35

2011

1 Newton 14
8 Lockler --
10 Gabbert 5
12 Ponder --
 

botfly10

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Desperation? How long has it been since the Bears drafted a QB?
 

Big Tyme D

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For the people that don't think QB is worth a top 5 pick.....what pick do you think the top guy in this draft is worth?
Top QB whether its Watson or Trebinsky should go #12 to the Browns.. in part for need... in part they have the luxury of making that pick. Possibly going #8 to the Jets... but I'm leaning heavy against it. I think most of the teams which could use a QB are going to take a pass in the 1st round. I wouldn't be surprised if no more than two QBs are drafted in the first after all is said and done.
 

rawdawg

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Top QB whether its Watson or Trebinsky should go #12 to the Browns.. in part for need... in part they have the luxury of making that pick. Possibly going #8 to the Jets... but I'm leaning heavy against it. I think most of the teams which could use a QB are going to take a pass in the 1st round. I wouldn't be surprised if no more than two QBs are drafted in the first after all is said and done.

Jets pick at 6. And like Windy said, if a QB is good enough to go 6.....what's 3 picks higher?
 

Hammer

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IMO, Trubisky and Mahomes would be worthy of taking a shot on them in bottom half of 1st round, Watson and Kizer no earlier then 2nd round.

Bottom line, if a QB prospect needs to sit and learn for a season or two, then he's not worthy of Top 15 pick, and not a single QB from this years class is ready to start from Day 1.
 

botfly10

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OP is operating under the assumption that there is no QB in this draft that will wind up worth a top 10 pick. Thats a fucking giant assumption and hardly the obvious fact he acts like it is.

The real issue is evaluating QBs and OP pushes the idea that none of them are worth a top pick and thus would be desperate selections as a fact. The assumption is that the bears don't have any of the QBs on their board that high. And then he acts like there is some universal consensus that they all suck. Shit, he even mentions Manziel and fucking Tebow.

If people wanna talk about strawman, OP is making the biggest one of all. NOBODY is saying the bears should draft a QB they don't like. No one is saying the bears should take a QB no matter what.

Rather, people are suggesting that if the draft falls such that the bears have their pick from the whole QB class, maybe there is one they really like. And maybe the bears should just take him even if they have a few players rated higher.
 

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