ESPN FPI: Bears best odds to win #1pick

Nelly

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So another article making the rounds on the board right now is talking about an 11-6 prediction. Weird.
 

jive

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If the Bears had the number #1 pick, there would be so many ripped off dicks in the Chicago River the day after the draft that it would appear pink in satellite photos. It would look like a dildo factory blew up.
 

Bearfanfromnewjersey

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i see the bears going 6-11 and i dont minds one bit. While i dont see the bears getting the top pick they are probably going to get a top 10 pick . trade back for a low 1st and a 2nd.
 

Toast88

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The Bears aren’t lucky enough to get the #1 pick.

Heck, a lot of the time, 4-12 gets you the top pick. Bears went 3-13 and couldn’t make it happen.
 

jtreal3

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ESPN is the worst!

they're cnn of the sports world

Fuck them
 

TL1961

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Chicago on the clock​

We've got a brutally close race for the favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, but the Bears edged out the Jets for the honor.

ESPN's FPI is down on Justin Fields after a pretty brutal rookie season in which he finished with the worst QBR among qualifying quarterbacks in the league. Edge rusher Khalil Mack and receiver Allen Robinson II are both gone, and while there are still a few good players remaining in the defensive front -- including edge rusher Robert Quinn and linebacker Roquan Smith -- there isn't a whole lot other strengths on the Bears' roster.

Per FPI ratings, the Bears have a 14% chance to pick first next April, followed by the Jets (14%), Texans (11%), Jaguars (9%) and Falcons (9%).
Not going to happen.
 

TL1961

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The Bears aren’t lucky enough to get the #1 pick.

Heck, a lot of the time, 4-12 gets you the top pick. Bears went 3-13 and couldn’t make it happen.
I wouldn’t consider having the number one overall pick “lucky”.
 

vinson555

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Honestly, if the Bears were playing the same level of teams they were playing in 2021... I'd agree with the Bears getting the number 1 pick. But it's more a question of what is unknown more than anything else.
 

Bust

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I wouldn’t consider having the number one overall pick “lucky”.

Specially when the supposed top pick is another QB from Ohio State, CJ Stroud

#uhoh
 

Visionman

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Honestly, if the Bears were playing the same level of teams they were playing in 2021... I'd agree with the Bears getting the number 1 pick. But it's more a question of what is unknown more than anything else.
So you’re saying Nagy was a good coach? Or saying the new staff is much worse…before they even have a training camp?
 

Gustavus Adolphus

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For those wondering what goes into this FPI: A guide to NFL FPI

I am assuming bye weeks factor into this, and the Bears having the latest one does not help - although the Falcons have one just as late and that doesn't seem to have affected them as much. They also say that they take into account the distance that each team travels, but the Bears are 5th in terms of least miles traveled. The Seahawks, who as of right now have Drew Lock starting, probably travel the most miles every year but they're #27? I'm not buying it. I'll wait for 538 to come out with their predictions, if they haven't already...

@TheWinman
 

ThatGuyRyan

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The Bears will not finish with the worst record in the NFL. Yes they aren't good but they're not a complete train wreck. they have talent on defense, that alone should keep them in games. I would be shocked if they're top 5. 6-8 wins is my guess so anywhere between 12-20, as per the usual bears.

@TheWinman
CC: @Gustavus Adolphus
 

Chicagosports89

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The Bears will not finish with the worst record in the NFL. Yes they aren't good but they're not a complete train wreck. they have talent on defense, that alone should keep them in games. I would be shocked if they're top 5. 6-8 wins is my guess so anywhere between 12-20, as per the usual bears.

@TheWinman
CC: @Gustavus Adolphus
Falcons and Seahawks are the 2 worst rosters in the league in my opinion. @TheWinman #seriousfootballtalk
 

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