ESPN FPI: Bears best odds to win #1pick

Gustavus Adolphus

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The Bears will not finish with the worst record in the NFL. Yes they aren't good but they're not a complete train wreck. they have talent on defense, that alone should keep them in games. I would be shocked if they're top 5. 6-8 wins is my guess so anywhere between 12-20, as per the usual bears.

@TheWinman
CC: @Gustavus Adolphus
Yeah, the big issue here is that nobody thinks they'll end up better than average. It's just how bad they turn out is the argument. I think WindyCity is of the opinion that they won't even score a point this season.

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DrGonzo

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What the hell, I may as well start making unfounded predictions too.

I predict the oline starts out horrible and ends up respectably average.

I predict the Bears have an NFL top 5 running game.

I predict Robinson leaving does not affect overall WR production in the slightest.

I predict Fields has some awful games and some games where people are blown away by his talent and tantalized by his possible ceiling (early Cutler years, anyone?)

I predict the record improves to 8-9. Take that, you Bears-hating media sonsabitches.
 

ThatGuyRyan

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Yeah, the big issue here is that nobody thinks they'll end up better than average. It's just how bad they turn out is the argument. I think WindyCity is of the opinion that they won't even score a point this season.

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Good to see you taking this football forum so seriously. We’re proud of you.

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vinson555

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So you’re saying Nagy was a good coach? Or saying the new staff is much worse…before they even have a training camp?
What I'm saying is, with this roaster, it's hard to see them as talented as last year. Give or take the FA signings I know little about or if a rookie pick or 2 can shock me. If this was 2021, I think we could end up with the number 1 pick.

But this year the list of teams we play are far too weak. Too many things would have to go wrong, like injuries would have to leave us down to practice squad level talent on much of the offense and or defense for the Bears to get the number 1 pick. Honestly, at worst I have the Bears like 5th or 6th. At best they sneak into the playoffs... a lot needs to go right or wrong for both. But even with average luck, I think this team is 6-8 wins.

The list of teams we have in 2021 however... We would have been picking in the top 10, and I think we'd be higher up the list. Less fighting the Vikings for 2nd place, more fighting with the Lions to stay out of the basement.
 

Visionman

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What I'm saying is, with this roaster, it's hard to see them as talented as last year. Give or take the FA signings I know little about or if a rookie pick or 2 can shock me. If this was 2021, I think we could end up with the number 1 pick.

But this year the list of teams we play are far too weak. Too many things would have to go wrong, like injuries would have to leave us down to practice squad level talent on much of the offense and or defense for the Bears to get the number 1 pick. Honestly, at worst I have the Bears like 5th or 6th. At best they sneak into the playoffs... a lot needs to go right or wrong for both. But even with average luck, I think this team is 6-8 wins.

The list of teams we have in 2021 however... We would have been picking in the top 10, and I think we'd be higher up the list. Less fighting the Vikings for 2nd place, more fighting with the Lions to stay out of the basement.
How is the talent worse than last year though? On paper, sure. But players like Mack and Hicks were often injured and out. Ineffective a lot when they were in. Robinson mailed it in at WR and/or Nagy refused to use him. Our other WRs…did they even dress tor games? They sure didn’t produce.

Our secondary was tons worse, even if both rooks are only average this year. I suppose we can say the DL is weaker, but only because we don’t have a unicorn 3T. If Flus can’t operate without an elite player there though…our old DCs were better.

Really, the only thing we lost was Daniels.,.and is that really a loss that equates to a lot worse roster?
 

Gustavus Adolphus

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I'm still of the opinion that it's not out of the question that Hicks is back on the roster.

I also think you might see some of the FA WRs post June 1.
 

nc0gnet0

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The Bears will not finish with the worst record in the NFL. Yes they aren't good but they're not a complete train wreck. they have talent on defense, that alone should keep them in games. I would be shocked if they're top 5. 6-8 wins is my guess so anywhere between 12-20, as per the usual bears.

@TheWinman
CC: @Gustavus Adolphus
They are thin as paper, and all it would take is 1-2 key injuries, and they are looking at the #1-3 pick.

Fields
Mooney
Smith
Quinn
Johnson
 

MDB111™

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I'm still of the opinion that it's not out of the question that Hicks is back on the roster.

I also think you might see some of the FA WRs post June 1.

I still think this pick is the Lions. All day. They truly are massive suck no matter what they try. Year in and year out. Even their fans fake being Bears fans on Bears boards.
 

ThatGuyRyan

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They are thin as paper, and all it would take is 1-2 key injuries, and they are looking at the #1-3 pick.

Fields
Mooney
Smith
Quinn
Johnson
They squeezed out 6 wins with no corner opp JJ, Mack, a mix of Dalton and foles, invisible Robinson and the cherry on top Matt Nagy.

EDIT: Oh, and a 40 yo LT and Sam Mustipher in the middle.

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Anytime23

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I wouldn’t consider having the number one overall pick “lucky”.
You’d rather the bears go 8-8, miss the playoffs and miss out on the potential generational talent.
 

ThatGuyRyan

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I'm still of the opinion that it's not out of the question that Hicks is back on the roster.

I also think you might see some of the FA WRs post June 1.
Hicks in rotation would be awesome.
 

nc0gnet0

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They squeezed out 6 wins with no corner opp JJ, Mack, a mix of Dalton and foles, invisible Robinson and the cherry on top Matt Nagy.

EDIT: Oh, and a 40 yo LT and Sam Mustipher in the middle.

@TheWinman
That 40 year old LT was your best O-lineman, Your corner opposite of JJ is a unproven rook, and Dalton or Foles is better than Siemian. Robinson still drew #1 coverage the majority of the year. Mack still played in games that accounted for 1/2 of your wins in 2021, and the other three wins were against teams with a combined record of 14-51.
 
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vinson555

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How is the talent worse than last year though? On paper, sure. But players like Mack and Hicks were often injured and out. Ineffective a lot when they were in. Robinson mailed it in at WR and/or Nagy refused to use him. Our other WRs…did they even dress tor games? They sure didn’t produce.

Our secondary was tons worse, even if both rooks are only average this year. I suppose we can say the DL is weaker, but only because we don’t have a unicorn 3T. If Flus can’t operate without an elite player there though…our old DCs were better.

Really, the only thing we lost was Daniels.,.and is that really a loss that equates to a lot worse roster?
Again man just stating an opinion, I'm not saying that if this was last year, they would get the number 1 pick, in fact, I'd hate that they did, would of went to the Giants. But you were talking Mack, and yeah he missed all of the 2nd half, very true, but when he was in there he did play a factor in some of the early wins and looked like a Probowl level player. You don't have that in this line even for half a season... Secondary is maybe better. WR is worse, on paper, and the Oline could also be worse or better, pending on what we have right now. We look like a team built to run the ball and they will dare us to pass again. Still, the teams we face will need talent to stop the run. In 2022, I don't think we get the number 1 pick in the draft. I could go into more details, but I got work in 20 lol.
 

bamainatlanta

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That 40 year old LT was your best O-lineman, Your corner opposite of JJ is a unproven rook, and Dalton or Foles is better than Siemian. Robinson still drew #1 coverage the majority of the year. Mack still played in games that accounted for 1/2 of your wins in 2021, and the other three wins were against teams with a combined record of 14-51.

But did you ask if the @TheWinman approved of your well informed opinion? We do appreciate your honest, no-bullshit assessment of this dumpster fire. Keep up the good work!
 

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