fangraphs updated cubs prospects

[beckdawg]

Top 49 Prospects: Chicago Cubs

Chicago’s system showed marked improvement in 2021, bolstered by trades and velocity development.

blogs.fangraphs.com

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Top 49 Prospects: Chicago Cubs

Chicago’s system showed marked improvement in 2021, bolstered by trades and velocity development.

blogs.fangraphs.com

I wonder what this compares to 2015. I remember 2015 being very top heavy, but not nearly as many 45 rated. 16 is a pretty solid amount of depth, and it is possible some younger 40's can move into 45.

 

[Chicagosports89]

I wonder what this compares to 2015. I remember 2015 being very top heavy, but not nearly as many 45 rated. 16 is a pretty solid amount of depth, and it is possible some younger 40's can move into 45.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple 45s become 50s too (Hernandez and Preciado)

 

[beckdawg]

I wonder what this compares to 2015. I remember 2015 being very top heavy, but not nearly as many 45 rated. 16 is a pretty solid amount of depth, and it is possible some younger 40's can move into 45.

Cubs have ridiculous depth this go around but aren't as strong at the top. But then they also invested in younger players via trade and have spent considerable money revamping their dev pipeline.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Cubs have ridiculous depth this go around but aren't as strong at the top.

But like last go-around, still a gross lack of quality pitching, namely power arms.

Marquez was the one guy I was high on, but being a 40 really puts things in perspective. Jensen is buried, which isn't shocking. So is Carraway--two guys who were supposed to 'develop fast.'

This Schlaffer kid looks like the one guy behind Marquez who can miss bats, if only he could cut his walk rate. A kid I'll keep my eye on this year.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

But like last go-around, still a gross lack of quality pitching, namely power arms.

Marquez was the one guy I was high on, but being a 40 really puts things in perspective. Jensen is buried, which isn't shocking. So is Carraway--two guys who were supposed to 'develop fast.'

This Schlaffer kid looks like the one guy behind Marquez who can miss bats, if only he could cut his walk rate. A kid I'll keep my eye on this year.

They aren't as lacking as they were in 2015 though. In 2015 we had Cease and that was it. Now we have Wicks, Killian, and Herz. Wicks and Killian seem to be sure things for now, just not sure what position they slot yet, and Herz isn't for sure a starter or long relief yet.

And the point of depth is that we can make trades for that power arm and still have a good a farm system afterwards.

 

[Chicagosports89]

They aren't as lacking as they were in 2015 though. In 2015 we had Cease and that was it. Now we have Wicks, Killian, and Herz. Wicks and Killian seem to be sure things for now, just not sure what position they slot yet, and Herz isn't for sure a starter or long relief yet.

And the point of depth is that we can make trades for that power arm and still have a good a farm system afterwards.

Hasn't Wick pitched like 1 inning in the minors? I'd give him at least a few appearances before calling him a sure thing. Kilian I am really high on though.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

They aren't as lacking as they were in 2015 though. In 2015 we had Cease and that was it. Now we have Wicks, Killian, and Herz. Wicks and Killian seem to be sure things for now, just not sure what position they slot yet, and Herz isn't for sure a starter or long relief yet.

And the point of depth is that we can make trades for that power arm and still have a good a farm system afterwards.

Let’s maybe hold off on saying guys like Killian, who had a good AZL fall league but an otherwise unremarkable brief stint in Tennessee and was a guy San Fran sought fit to trade for a 2 month rental is “a sure thing.” Nice K/9 in Pacific Northwest league probably won’t translate to majors.

Wick is a sure thing? Based on what?


Herz had a nice year in A ball. Let’s maybe see if hat he does in A+ and beyond before we call him a sure thing.

Cubs have a top 10 pick next summer. No reason that pick shouldn’t/can’t be a power arm that when seasoned/pitchlab’d can be the power arm they haven’t had in a minute, but watch it be another middle infielder.

 

[SilenceS]

Let’s maybe hold off on saying guys like Killian, who had a good AZL fall league but an otherwise unremarkable brief stint in Tennessee and was a guy San Fran sought fit to trade for a 2 month rental is “a sure thing.” Nice K/9 in Pacific Northwest league probably won’t translate to majors.

Wick is a sure thing? Based on what?


Herz had a nice year in A ball. Let’s maybe see if hat he does in A+ and beyond before we call him a sure thing.

Cubs have a top 10 pick next summer. No reason that pick shouldn’t/can’t be a power arm that when seasoned/pitchlab’d can be the power arm they haven’t had in a minute, but watch it be another middle infielder.

You draft best available on y board. You don’t draft for need. That doesn’t work out.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Let’s maybe hold off on saying guys like Killian, who had a good AZL fall league but an otherwise unremarkable brief stint in Tennessee and was a guy San Fran sought fit to trade for a 2 month rental is “a sure thing.” Nice K/9 in Pacific Northwest league probably won’t translate to majors.

Wick is a sure thing? Based on what?


Herz had a nice year in A ball. Let’s maybe see if hat he does in A+ and beyond before we call him a sure thing.

Cubs have a top 10 pick next summer. No reason that pick shouldn’t/can’t be a power arm that when seasoned/pitchlab’d can be the power arm they haven’t had in a minute, but watch it be another middle infielder.

Sure things in context of what we were discussing was in pitching prospects in our farm.

 

[beckdawg]

Regarding pitching... i think you need to separate it into buckets. I think you need to talk about guys who can be 3-5 starters and then guys with TOR potential. Wicks and Killian look like pretty easy projections for the 3-5 type arms and I'm gonna throw Alzolay in there as he's not a prospect exactly anymore but he's young enough to matter.

I'm not sure the cubs have guys you can project to be 1-2's. Herz is fascinating. He's struck out 139 batters in 92 innings. He's the one i'd put most faith in reaching that but I don't think it's any kind of foregone conclusion.

With that being said, I think we need to realize that with this kind of depth on the offensive side of the ball they are going to have money to throw at pitching. I would also point out that it's my belief that they will probably start to target some more high school pitching in the next few drafts with the idea of building those guys up a la herz and franklin. I might be wrong there but i think with the amount of depth that they have in hitting from rookie ball to A+ it's gonna be difficult to find playing time for guys.

It's also worth noting that they brought in the GM from cleveland. They had Bieber as a 4th round pick out of college. You also have Aaron Civale who was a 3rd round pick and Zach Plesac who was a 12th round pick out of college. Bieber is the obvious exception here but the point is more that cleveland has found guys who aren't obvious high round picks and made them into useful rotation pieces. If the cubs can sprinkle in a few of these guys in the 3-7th-ish rounds and then use some bigger money on HS guys to develop there pitching can improve quickly.

 

[knoxville7]

I seem to notice that 7 of the Cubs top 14 prospects are guys they got via trade since last offseason till now…

 

[CSF77]

Ya Hertz might be the nugget but he is a bit far away to matter yet

The lock IMO is Killian. He is close to a sure thing as it gets.

Marquez if he gets back to plus command has ace potential. If he is just a 2 pitch guy then closer.

At this point getting both Killian and Marquez on the team is a win. Rest of the talent wait and see.

Looking at higher rated talent like Gore dropping last year like a rock really puts rankings in perspective. Hype is not reality. Toeing the rubber in MLB games is.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Regarding pitching... i think you need to separate it into buckets. I think you need to talk about guys who can be 3-5 starters and then guys with TOR potential. Wicks and Killian look like pretty easy projections for the 3-5 type arms and I'm gonna throw Alzolay in there as he's not a prospect exactly anymore but he's young enough to matter.

I'm not sure the cubs have guys you can project to be 1-2's. Herz is fascinating. He's struck out 139 batters in 92 innings. He's the one i'd put most faith in reaching that but I don't think it's any kind of foregone conclusion.

With that being said, I think we need to realize that with this kind of depth on the offensive side of the ball they are going to have money to throw at pitching. I would also point out that it's my belief that they will probably start to target some more high school pitching in the next few drafts with the idea of building those guys up a la herz and franklin. I might be wrong there but i think with the amount of depth that they have in hitting from rookie ball to A+ it's gonna be difficult to find playing time for guys.

It's also worth noting that they brought in the GM from cleveland. They had Bieber as a 4th round pick out of college. You also have Aaron Civale who was a 3rd round pick and Zach Plesac who was a 12th round pick out of college. Bieber is the obvious exception here but the point is more that cleveland has found guys who aren't obvious high round picks and made them into useful rotation pieces. If the cubs can sprinkle in a few of these guys in the 3-7th-ish rounds and then use some bigger money on HS guys to develop there pitching can improve quickly.

The development team is also highly focused on developing velocity and spin rates. And last year the Cubs saw the biggest organizational increase in their farm. So they can draft guys hitting 92 and get them up to 98. There is a lot of value obtained with that.

 

[knoxville7]

The development team is also highly focused on developing velocity and spin rates. And last year the Cubs saw the biggest organizational increase in their farm. So they can draft guys hitting 92 and get them up to 98. There is a lot of value obtained with that.

92 to 98?! Shit, I wonder if they could add a couple MPH’s to my underhanded softball pitching

 

[JP Hochbaum]

92 to 98?! Shit, I wonder if they could add a couple MPH’s to my underhanded softball pitching

"Take Max Bain, for instance. The undrafted free agent just finished his first season in the Cubs org after the pandemic washed out his 2020 campaign. He bought in heavily to Driveline’s teachings and got really into fitness, losing almost 70 pounds while gaining nearly 10 mph on his fastball. Further velocity gains aren’t the issue at this point, but he told Cubs Insider he wants to better maintain that consistent high velo."

Cubs System Now Among Best in Baseball at Improving 'Stuff' - Cubs Insider

Spurred by outfits like Driveline and the success of the Astros organization, the Cubs made a concerted effort following the 2018 season to be more aggressive in their pitching development. More specifically, they wanted to improve velocity gains that to that point had been almost non-existent...

www.cubsinsider.com

 

[Chicagosports89]

92 to 98?! Shit, I wonder if they could add a couple MPH’s to my underhanded softball pitching

I probably throw in the 70s, hopefully they can get me up in the 90s.

 

[knoxville7]

I probably throw in the 70s, hopefully they can get me up in the 90s.

You got future set up guy written all over you