General betting discussion

Raskolnikov

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I just came here to say I took Seahawks at -6.5 last night.
I had the same tease going. Saved my weekend after nightmare soccer scenarios.

I started drinking early tonight because I need to ride out the Ravens to survive the weekend and I'm not sure how I feel about it. I know I will get a motivated, chippy, cold weather team built for this, physical and focused...up against a team above them in the standing in their own division...

I will get a good effort. The trick to beating the Ravens is getting a lead and running the ball until the pass rush is neutralized and you can work on their safeties. But a chippy Lamar Jackson in a big game with that physical team around him is always going to be a big task. I expect this is a night the Browns can meet the moment and energy, but I don't like their overall talent level with Ward/Hooper/Beckham out.

If I am wrong I know that Mayfield will dance on my skull and my soul, doing high steps Bo Jackson style into the locker room while the band rushes the field and clatters cymbals at the apoplectic Harbaugh glare. And that sucks. But it is what it is.
 
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Midway Nick

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I had the same tease going. Saved my weekend after nightmare soccer scenarios.

I started drinking early tonight because I need to ride out the Ravens to survive the weekend and I'm not sure how I feel about it. I know I will get a motivated, chippy, cold weather team built for this, physical and focused...up against a team above them in the standing in their own division...

I will get a good effort. The trick to beating the Ravens is getting a lead and running the ball until the pass rush is neutralized and you can work on their safeties. But a chippy Lamar Jackson in a big game with that physical team around him is always going to be a big task. I expect this is a night the Browns can meet the moment and energy, but I don't like their overall talent level with Ward/Hooper/Beckham out.

If I am wrong I know that Mayfield will dance on my skull and soul. And that sucks. But it is what it is.
My post was from December 1 and it was a horrible bad beat.

You dipped into the keef again didn’t you?!?!

Good luck tonight!
 

Raskolnikov

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I feel resigned to a loss. Like I don't even have belief, just predestined to carry out an action and forfeit life, ask my mommy for help. Endure more shame along the wonder "Oregon Trail" generation landscapes of horrors and disappointment.
 

Burque

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I feel resigned to a loss. Like I don't even have belief, just predestined to carry out an action and forfeit life, ask my mommy for help. Endure more shame along the wonder "Oregon Trail" generation landscapes of horrors and disappointment.
What a fucking game that was!!!
 

Raskolnikov

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I think if McSorely plays another snap it goes to the Browns.

Mayfield is better without Odell Beckham Jr., I don't think he should be, but he is because he isn't pre-occupied with feeding him, worried about missing him if he gets open, concerned about feelings in the huddle, etc.

He just plays and was forced to find his best 3rd down weapon among a bunch of them...Landry. Also, Chubb and Hunt are amazing as we already knew, and the Bears are too good for Hunt but interested in washed up over priced Bell. Sounds about right.
 
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Gustavus Adolphus

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Signed up for DraftKings. I'm currently 6-2 on NHL. Not even going to tell you my poor NBA numbers.
 

Raskolnikov

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Signed up for DraftKings. I'm currently 6-2 on NHL. Not even going to tell you my poor NBA numbers.
yeah...you can do some things in the NHL, just watch the goalies and try to guess motivation. Crazy year, the back-to-backs and instant revenge stuff is interesting and dicey. NBA is always wild because you never know who will go off. If one team lights up the 3-point line on a given night, forget about it. Or if one player goes off, and nearly every guy is capable of any given night in the NBA.

I never bet Kobe either direction. He was going to go 8 for 25 shooting for 25 points, or 15 of 20 for 40. Coin toss.
Easier almost to bet big games when you know everyone is all in for a given night.

The parity in college basketball even to the little leagues has created a much more difficult go the last 5-10 years. The depth is insane from what it used to be when you could count on certain things. Its much more "any given sunday" now.

I've been finding my wins in hockey and soccer which have a similar scoring profile. Baseball is always great for stats junkies and I find its almost always better to read numbers than watch games. Your eyes lie. If you watch one game you create a bias. etc. The hot bats, hot arm, and knowing which teams bullpens you can trust vs cutting games to 5 innings is key.
 

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