RustedShut
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PRESSURE POINT - KC JOYNER
There are certain things in life I am positive I will never understand.
After reading multiple books on the subject, I still cannot say that I fully grasp the principles of quantum mechanics. I also have trouble getting my mind around the idea that, although the universe is possibly expanding at a velocity greater than the speed of light and therefore could have expanded at that rate during the "Big Bang," we know for certain that the universe is around 13 billion years old.
As mind-bending as those imponderables are, they pale in comparison to understanding the mindset of Chicago Bears fans.
I came to this conclusion after they ran Rex Grossman out of town. Grossman certainly had his flaws (he was that rare breed of quarterback who could post five bad decisions in a single game), but he did notch a 17-6 record in his first four seasons with the team. He also had more than a few good games in 2005-06 while leading the Bears to their first NFC championship victory in 21 years. In return, these achievements got him the unending enmity of the Bears fans, a quick ticket to the bench and eventually a plane ticket out of the Windy City.
Had the Grossman incident been the only item on this list, it could be simply seen as an anomaly, but Chicago's faithful seem to be doing the same thing to Matt Forte. They say his performance fell off dramatically in his sophomore campaign, but a closer look at the game tape and metrics indicates that Forte's play did not really drop off and that he actually outperformed his more highly touted (and much higher-paid) backfield teammate Chester Taylor.
Let's start with an analysis of Forte's performance. The crux of the argument in favor of his game having dropped off is a decrease in rush yards per attempt (YPA). In 2008-09, Forte tallied a 3.9 YPA mark. In 2009-10, that total fell to 3.6 YPA; that's a drop-off of eight percent.
What is perplexing about using this as the central statistical basis for claiming Forte's downfall is that it doesn't take into account receiving yardage; his YPA in that area jumped from a 7.6 mark in 2008 to 8.3 in 2009-10.
Another way to look at this: add his rushing and receiving yardage totals together to tally his yards from scrimmage. Forte gained 4.5 YPA from scrimmage in 2008-09 and 4.4 in 2009-10. One-tenth of a yard over the course of a 400-touch season would be a mere 40 yards, or a little over two yards per game.
His overall performance from scrimmage did not significantly drop off.
Forte's rushing performance also didn't really drop off over the past two seasons, as based on a study I just completed on the YPA totals of running backs when given good blocking this past season; the study is based on tape analysis of every running play from the 2009-10 campaign.
The specifics of this analysis are quite detailed, but here's the basic breakdown: I credited each blocker with a Point of Attack (POA) "win" if they create a lane for the runner to go through. If they don't create that lane, I'd give them a "loss."
Running plays that have at least one POA loss are notched under the poor-blocking category, while plays with zero POA losses are listed as good-blocking runs.
Here's how bad the Bears' offensive line was: Forte got "good blocking" on 53.5 percent of his runs last season. That was sixth-worst in the league among backs with at least 100 carries; essentially, Forte received some of the worst blocking of any starting RB in the NFL.
If that metric weren't enough to take some of the pressure off of Forte, consider this: In 2008-09, Forte gained 5.6 YPA on running plays with good blocking. His total in this category in 2009-10? 5.6 YPA, or exactly what he gained in his highly touted rookie campaign.
Despite all of this, Forte has not only taken the brunt of the non-Jay Cutler bashing around Chicago, but he has to split carries with Taylor as well.
The frustrating part of this is Taylor did an even worse job in the good-blocking YPA category last year. He gained only 5.2 yards on plays of that nature, or nearly one-half yard less than Forte.
Add all of it up and it equals a situation where Forte could be in the same boat as Grossman. Chicago's fans seemed to have their minds made up about Rex and simply waited to pounce on him once he started struggling. That is one of the reasons the Bears' organization gave up on Grossman.
If the higher-ups at Halas Hall don't take steps to steel their minds against that happening, they could end up seeing Forte pull a Cedric Benson and give another team Pro Bowl-caliber backfield play.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is also the author of "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."
There are certain things in life I am positive I will never understand.
After reading multiple books on the subject, I still cannot say that I fully grasp the principles of quantum mechanics. I also have trouble getting my mind around the idea that, although the universe is possibly expanding at a velocity greater than the speed of light and therefore could have expanded at that rate during the "Big Bang," we know for certain that the universe is around 13 billion years old.
As mind-bending as those imponderables are, they pale in comparison to understanding the mindset of Chicago Bears fans.
I came to this conclusion after they ran Rex Grossman out of town. Grossman certainly had his flaws (he was that rare breed of quarterback who could post five bad decisions in a single game), but he did notch a 17-6 record in his first four seasons with the team. He also had more than a few good games in 2005-06 while leading the Bears to their first NFC championship victory in 21 years. In return, these achievements got him the unending enmity of the Bears fans, a quick ticket to the bench and eventually a plane ticket out of the Windy City.
Had the Grossman incident been the only item on this list, it could be simply seen as an anomaly, but Chicago's faithful seem to be doing the same thing to Matt Forte. They say his performance fell off dramatically in his sophomore campaign, but a closer look at the game tape and metrics indicates that Forte's play did not really drop off and that he actually outperformed his more highly touted (and much higher-paid) backfield teammate Chester Taylor.
Let's start with an analysis of Forte's performance. The crux of the argument in favor of his game having dropped off is a decrease in rush yards per attempt (YPA). In 2008-09, Forte tallied a 3.9 YPA mark. In 2009-10, that total fell to 3.6 YPA; that's a drop-off of eight percent.
What is perplexing about using this as the central statistical basis for claiming Forte's downfall is that it doesn't take into account receiving yardage; his YPA in that area jumped from a 7.6 mark in 2008 to 8.3 in 2009-10.
Another way to look at this: add his rushing and receiving yardage totals together to tally his yards from scrimmage. Forte gained 4.5 YPA from scrimmage in 2008-09 and 4.4 in 2009-10. One-tenth of a yard over the course of a 400-touch season would be a mere 40 yards, or a little over two yards per game.
His overall performance from scrimmage did not significantly drop off.
Forte's rushing performance also didn't really drop off over the past two seasons, as based on a study I just completed on the YPA totals of running backs when given good blocking this past season; the study is based on tape analysis of every running play from the 2009-10 campaign.
The specifics of this analysis are quite detailed, but here's the basic breakdown: I credited each blocker with a Point of Attack (POA) "win" if they create a lane for the runner to go through. If they don't create that lane, I'd give them a "loss."
Running plays that have at least one POA loss are notched under the poor-blocking category, while plays with zero POA losses are listed as good-blocking runs.
Here's how bad the Bears' offensive line was: Forte got "good blocking" on 53.5 percent of his runs last season. That was sixth-worst in the league among backs with at least 100 carries; essentially, Forte received some of the worst blocking of any starting RB in the NFL.
If that metric weren't enough to take some of the pressure off of Forte, consider this: In 2008-09, Forte gained 5.6 YPA on running plays with good blocking. His total in this category in 2009-10? 5.6 YPA, or exactly what he gained in his highly touted rookie campaign.
Despite all of this, Forte has not only taken the brunt of the non-Jay Cutler bashing around Chicago, but he has to split carries with Taylor as well.
The frustrating part of this is Taylor did an even worse job in the good-blocking YPA category last year. He gained only 5.2 yards on plays of that nature, or nearly one-half yard less than Forte.
Add all of it up and it equals a situation where Forte could be in the same boat as Grossman. Chicago's fans seemed to have their minds made up about Rex and simply waited to pounce on him once he started struggling. That is one of the reasons the Bears' organization gave up on Grossman.
If the higher-ups at Halas Hall don't take steps to steel their minds against that happening, they could end up seeing Forte pull a Cedric Benson and give another team Pro Bowl-caliber backfield play.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is also the author of "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."
