Hoge's CHGO: Bears are better at everything this year except for D-Line & WR (barely)

[Toast88]

No one can say Adam Hoge and the guys over at CHGO don't have some opinions.

They went position group-by-position group to compare the roster to last year's roster, and what they found was that this year's roster is significantly better.

In fact, the only roster group that was clearly better last year was the D-Line, they say. They say the WR group is nearly a wash, but they'll go ahead and count that as a slight downgrade as well, although less obvious, because last year's group was bad.

One guy has them going 10-7. I think Hoge re-revised his prediction from 7-10 back to 8-9 (after previously bringing it down from 8-9 to 7/10).

Have a listen if you wish. Still not sure how I feel about CHGO. I actually think most of them are fine, so far.

CHGO Bears Podcast: How does Roquan Smith, Chicago Bears’ starters this year compare to last year? - CHGO

In this episode, the guys go position by position and determine if the Chicago Bears group is better or worse than last season.

www.allchgo.com

 

[Spitta Andretti]

Positivity is bad. Stupid fans want to wallow in negativity

 

[TheWinman]

I agree with Hoge. THe biggest not talked about upgrade is the subtraction of Nagy and his staff, mainly for the Oline. Without that horrible scheme, it was an improvement right off the bat. Now with overall coaching and no Nagy, we still have to see if Eberflus and co. are good or at a minimum better. They should be, it would be hard not to be.

Some people like to argue that we don't have Arob this year. What did he do in 2021? Nothing. SO Hoge is right in that it's almost a wash from 2021 to 2022.

Easy schedule added into the mix, we can get 6-7 wins. The dline is a big concern thus the temepered win projection

 

[bamainatlanta]

I agree with Hoge. THe biggest not talked about upgrade is the subtraction of Nagy and his staff, mainly for the Oline. Without that horrible scheme, it was an improvement right off the bat. Now with overall coaching and no Nagy, we still have to see if Eberflus and co. are good or at a minimum better. They should be, it would be hard not to be.

Some people like to argue that we don't have Arob this year. What did he do in 2021? Nothing. SO Hoge is right in that it's almost a wash from 2021 to 2022.

Easy schedule added into the mix, we can get 6-7 wins. The dline is a big concern thus the temepered win projection

Arob was such an afterthought that he was rarely double teamed as the year went on

 

[gilder121]

I get it. I've been vocally negative about this off-season, but if you want the reason for optimism, this is it.

I'll even go one further and discuss the inherent contradiction in what I've been arguing and believe. Mainly:
-The Bears record last year was 6-11 but most of their big players were barely available and with what was left, it was worse than what I expect to be on the field this year, even after reasonable injuries this year.
-I also aknowledge that Nagy was bad. But if the roster was as bad as I say, did Nagy overperform? Or am I undervaluing the roster and Nagy really was that bad?

So I'm expecting the roster to be slightly better, the coaching and scheme to be better, but the record to be worse.

I chalk it up to a fluke, and taking a step back think the roster IS bad enough to be awful this year, but it's a logical gap that I haven't quite been able to reconcile.

As for CHGO, I've been listening. I like Hoge still, maybe even more than on H&J. I like Moreano. Im glad Olin is gone. The others are meh. Good pod overall though.

 

[TheWinman]

I get it. I've been vocally negative about this off-season, but if you want the reason for optimism, this is it.

I'll even go one further and discuss the inherent contradiction in what I've been arguing and believe. Mainly:
-The Bears record last year was 6-11 but most of their big players were barely available and with what was left, it was worse than what I expect to be on the field this year, even after reasonable injuries this year.
-I also aknowledge that Nagy was bad. But if the roster was as bad as I say, did Nagy overperform? Or am I undervaluing the roster and Nagy really was that bad?

So I'm expecting the roster to be slightly better, the coaching and scheme to be better, but the record to be worse.

I chalk it up to a fluke, and taking a step back think the roster IS bad enough to be awful this year, but it's a logical gap that I haven't quite been able to reconcile.

As for CHGO, I've been listening. I like Hoge still, maybe even more than on H&J. I like Moreano. Im glad Olin is gone. The others are meh. Good pod overall though.

I see your point about the record still maybe being worse. It all depends how long it takes for the new schemes and all these new players to gel.

 

[Toast88]

The D-Line is where the Bears are really going to struggle this year, IMO. In that way, I completely agree with them. That's going to create a lot of pressure on a young secondary. We'll see how they respond.

I agree with them, to a point, about the WR corps. Hoge says people were overrating last year's WR group. I'm not sure if that's true or not, but I know last year's corps outside of Mooney sucked. That doesn't mean this year's won't also suck. But I do have hope that Pringle and friends (the receivers on the periphery) will be better than Dazz Newsome and friends. But with the receiver corps, we're comparing bad to still-bad-but-not-as-bad, IMO.

The coaches have their work cut out for them, for sure. The roster looks like shit, at least right now. It's accentuated by big-name guys departing (Mack, Hicks, Robinson), but I agree that if you look at actual production on the field, it's probably not as big a loss as it seems. It's still a loss, though. Hoge admits that he's partially projecting better coaching onto the players when assessing whether the roster is better. That's fair, I think.

We're all projecting out with our analyses, which is fine. That's what people do on message boards. A problem is that there are still so many unknowns.

-People are just kind of assuming Brisker is plug-and-play. Are we sure? I don't think teams were nearly as high on him as they were on Kyler Gordon, yet we seem to be lumping them together. He might take a little while to get going.

-People are just kind of assuming everyone will stay healthy, despite the NFL having a nearly-100 percent injury rate. What happens if Mooney goes down injured? Does it completely fuck up your offense? Your move, Getsy. Let's see what you've got.

-People are just kind of assuming Eberflus and Getsy will be good. They could be, but we don't know that.

I have a hope and expectation that the Bears will look like a better, more cohesive, better coached team this year. But I'm definitely tempering my expectations until we see what the on-field product looks like. I'm wary of saying they're better at nearly everything.

 

[TheWinman]

The D-Line is where the Bears are really going to struggle this year, IMO. In that way, I completely agree with them. That's going to create a lot of pressure on a young secondary. We'll see how they respond.

I agree with them, to a point, about the WR corps. Hoge says people were overrating last year's WR group. I'm not sure if that's true or not, but I know last year's corps outside of Mooney sucked. That doesn't mean this year's won't also suck. But I do have hope that Pringle and friends (the receivers on the periphery) will be better than Dazz Newsome and friends. But with the receiver corps, we're comparing bad to still-bad-but-not-as-bad, IMO.

The coaches have their work cut out for them, for sure. The roster looks like shit, at least right now. It's accentuated by big-name guys departing (Mack, Hicks, Robinson), but I agree that if you look at actual production on the field, it's probably not as big a loss as it seems. It's still a loss, though. Hoge admits that he's partially projecting better coaching onto the players when assessing whether the roster is better. That's fair, I think.

We're all projecting out with our analyses, which is fine. That's what people do on message boards. A problem is that there are still so many unknowns.

-People are just kind of assuming Brisker is plug-and-play. Are we sure? I don't think teams were nearly as high on him as they were on Kyler Gordon, yet we seem to be lumping them together. He might take a little while to get going.

-People are just kind of assuming everyone will stay healthy, despite the NFL having a nearly-100 percent injury rate. What happens if Mooney goes down injured? Does it completely fuck up your offense? Your move, Getsy. Let's see what you've got.

-People are just kind of assuming Eberflus and Getsy will be good. They could be, but we don't know that.

I have a hope and expectation that the Bears will look like a better, more cohesive, better coached team this year. But I'm definitely tempering my expectations until we see what the on-field product looks like. I'm wary of saying they're better at nearly everything.

I agree with most of your post. Brisker I see as a starter because it's not too hard to be better than who he is replacing.

And when you talk projections, you can't factor in injuries. They will happen but we have no idea who and for how long.

 

[Mdbearz]

Using the Same approach
Offense +1, I think they will run the ball more often and more effectively, get the ball out quick.
Defense - 1, Change in scheme and lack of 3 technique, secondary should be better, Mack and Hicks gone, a lot of talent left the team.
Special Teams -1, since you can not give a zero, not sure about how the holding will go with a rookie punter, plus the punting and who is the kickoff and punt returners?
Coaching +1, (I know a mailbox should be an upgrade over Nagy) and all of them are experienced coaches, but many of them are in new roles, plus implementing a new offense and defensive scheme ALWAYS has growing pains.

Overall a zero, so 6 wins again if we played the same teams as last year, but we are playing a weaker schedule, so 7 wins.

 

[Black Rainbow]

The D-Line is where the Bears are really going to struggle this year, IMO. In that way, I completely agree with them. That's going to create a lot of pressure on a young secondary. We'll see how they respond.

I agree with them, to a point, about the WR corps. Hoge says people were overrating last year's WR group. I'm not sure if that's true or not, but I know last year's corps outside of Mooney sucked. That doesn't mean this year's won't also suck. But I do have hope that Pringle and friends (the receivers on the periphery) will be better than Dazz Newsome and friends. But with the receiver corps, we're comparing bad to still-bad-but-not-as-bad, IMO.

The coaches have their work cut out for them, for sure. The roster looks like shit, at least right now. It's accentuated by big-name guys departing (Mack, Hicks, Robinson), but I agree that if you look at actual production on the field, it's probably not as big a loss as it seems. It's still a loss, though. Hoge admits that he's partially projecting better coaching onto the players when assessing whether the roster is better. That's fair, I think.

We're all projecting out with our analyses, which is fine. That's what people do on message boards. A problem is that there are still so many unknowns.

-People are just kind of assuming Brisker is plug-and-play. Are we sure? I don't think teams were nearly as high on him as they were on Kyler Gordon, yet we seem to be lumping them together. He might take a little while to get going.

-People are just kind of assuming everyone will stay healthy, despite the NFL having a nearly-100 percent injury rate. What happens if Mooney goes down injured? Does it completely fuck up your offense? Your move, Getsy. Let's see what you've got.

-People are just kind of assuming Eberflus and Getsy will be good. They could be, but we don't know that.

I have a hope and expectation that the Bears will look like a better, more cohesive, better coached team this year. But I'm definitely tempering my expectations until we see what the on-field product looks like. I'm wary of saying they're better at nearly everything.

Spot on again. I think the d-line will be worse and put a lot of pressure on the secondary.

Do you have an opinion on our LBs? I don't recognize anyone but Roquan.

Along with your mention about Mooney getting injured...imagine Whithair getting injured and losing the only guy on the line that's not young/a question mark. I feel like we somehow have less depth on the o-line than last year. Scary.

 

[Bearly]

Th key players we lost this year were missing or hampered for most of last year so I expect better play at WR due both to personnel and scheme. Same for QB even if the line remains in question. Scheme should hep a lot and Justin no longer needs to question his leadership roll on the team. Getsy is handing him the keys and ability to steer on the field. I expect a clear upgrade on O if the line can at least be mediocre.

There is little question the secondary will be much improved but the DL is certainly in question. We've lost Hicks, Mack and Goldman but what did we really get from them last year? Still, the lack of a top 3 tech in this D is a genuine concern.

Here's the thing. Record should be better than last year because the C2/3 tends to work really well against meh teams and that's the bulk of our schedule this year. The problem comes when you face VG QBs that read well and throw guys open in seams. Then you need that pressure to hurry a decision and without pushing the pocket, guys like Quinn become less effective. Jones is a decent player but a stop gap. That said, I'm not sure that the Ogunjobi saga is over.

I don't think we have less OL depth than last year. We didn't have Jenkins to start the season and didn't even know if Peters could still play T. Who were our backups in Sept?

This was our depth chart:

• Left tackle: Jason Peters, Larry Borom
• Left guard: Cody Whitehair
• Center: Sam Mustipher
• Right guard: James Daniels, Alex Bars
• Right tackle: Germain Ifedi, Elijah Wilkinson, Lachavious Simmons

Jones is as good a rookie prospect as Borom was, maybe more so as his draft grade was higher. Whether our starting LT will perform to a decent standard remains to be seen but the depth is no worse. That said, Peters was good for us but he also no longer fits an outside zone scheme so was not destined to stay anyway. Shon Coleman is as good as any of the other vets we had around.

Jenkins is an upgrade on the right side.

Patrick is an upgrade at C.

Cody fits this scheme better than the last one.

RG is a big issue right now.

It's early and we're not done. It's not like we had Peters at this time last year either and Thomas has a lot of potential at G but needs coaching, bulk and reps before he makes that move. I doubt he can be all that by Sept (if at all) but it wouldn't be the 1st time.

 

[Toast88]

Spot on again. I think the d-line will be worse and put a lot of pressure on the secondary.

Do you have an opinion on our LBs? I don't recognize anyone but Roquan.

Along with your mention about Mooney getting injured...imagine Whithair getting injured and losing the only guy on the line that's not young/a question mark. I feel like we somehow have less depth on the o-line than last year. Scary.

Good point about the O-Line. It's already awfully thin. Add an untimely injury or two---which is certain in the NFL---and there could be some games where it's an absolute nightmare on the line.

I disagree with people who say you can't forecast injuries. They're actually extremely predictable in the NFL, and you can prepare for them with depth. Not necessarily the fault of Poles, but there is no depth hardly anywhere on this team. I want to see what this team looks like in Week 8 when they're in full swing and guys are rotating on and off the injury list, just like happens every year to every team. I suspect that will be a very difficult time. It will be interesting to see how the team copes.

As far as linebackers (and I assume we're not talking edge rushers), they'll probably be better, as last year it was simply Roquan, a serviceable Ogletree and the gang of randoms. At least now they have a 4-year starter in Nicholas Morrow who seemed to be getting better before his injury early last year. Him alongside another-year-wiser Roquan is probably an upgrade, although they probably will miss those depth pieces. We'll see. They won't miss Trevathan, I don't think.

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

The only position group that got significantly better is the secondary.

 

[Nelly]

One thing often lost when looking at teams from year to year is the baseline of the league. Sure, we got two starters in the 2nd round, but so did teams like Detroit, Philly, the Giants and Jets, just with much higher picks. If Fields is in line for improvement, so is Zach Wilson and others. We like to cite the easy schedule, and it is, but all the reasons we're citing for being better, so are they... and they generally had more/higher picks.

 

[legendxofxlink]

This offense should live off the run game, that's where the OL/Offense will show it's most improvement. Scoreboard might not reflect major improvement much, but time management and clock control should be much better. Not many coaches derailed drives like Nagy.

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

This offense should live off the run game, that's where the OL/Offense will show it's most improvement. Scoreboard might not reflect major improvement much, but time management and clock control should be much better. Not many coaches derailed drives like Nagy.

This. I think the team will look much better because fuck face and Co are gone.

 

[Nelly]

Good point about the O-Line. It's already awfully thin. Add an untimely injury or two---which is certain in the NFL---and there could be some games where it's an absolute nightmare on the line.

I disagree with people who say you can't forecast injuries. They're actually extremely predictable in the NFL, and you can prepare for them with depth. Not necessarily the fault of Poles, but there is no depth hardly anywhere on this team. I want to see what this team looks like in Week 8 when they're in full swing and guys are rotating on and off the injury list, just like happens every year to every team. I suspect that will be a very difficult time. It will be interesting to see how the team copes.

As far as linebackers (and I assume we're not talking edge rushers), they'll probably be better, as last year it was simply Roquan, a serviceable Ogletree and the gang of randoms. At least now they have a 4-year starter in Nicholas Morrow who seemed to be getting better before his injury early last year. Him alongside another-year-wiser Roquan is probably an upgrade, although they probably will miss those depth pieces. We'll see. They won't miss Trevathan, I don't think.

Poles is clearly trying to build the depth on the O line by going scattershot with late round picks. If he had solidified starters in place already then it would look great cause you can find serviceable to even good starters on the line in the late rounds with a year or two of seasoning. It speaks to Pace's years of neglecting and/or failing on the O line.

 

[modo]

Their arguments are as sound as any narrative that is castigating the Bears for not overdrafting a position of need

 

[BearbaFett]

The only position group that got significantly better is the secondary.

fair assessment, and the CHGO guys pretty much agree with you there....their scores were mostly predicated on coaching/system/scheme improvements.

on paper, the talent has likely downgraded but with competent coaching, the whole might be greater than the sum of its parts. tony dungy has a quote saying that there's only about a 10% variance of talent at a position, success all depends on coaching and effort.

yeah, i know...kool aid....but that's where i see the CHGO guys coming from.

 

[Bearly]

This offense should live off the run game, that's where the OL/Offense will show it's most improvement. Scoreboard might not reflect major improvement much, but time management and clock control should be much better. Not many coaches derailed drives like Nagy.

This and it fits into what Fields does well once the safeties start cheating. I expect a lot of runs, isolations and deep balls.