Hoge's CHGO: Bears are better at everything this year except for D-Line & WR (barely)

[ThatGuyRyan]

fair assessment, and the CHGO guys pretty much agree with you there....their scores were mostly predicated on coaching/system/scheme improvements.

on paper, the talent has likely downgraded but with competent coaching, the whole might be greater than the sum of its parts. tony dungy has a quote saying that there's only about a 10% variance of talent at a position, success all depends on coaching and effort.

yeah, i know...kool aid....but that's where i see the CHGO guys coming from.

No I agree, don't necessarily think that translates to W's this year. Gonna be some growing pains.

 

[Anytime23]

THe biggest not talked about upgrade is the subtraction of Nagy and his staff,

A million people have mentioned this. It is literally the go-to thing to say to try and defend Poles.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Spot on again. I think the d-line will be worse and put a lot of pressure on the secondary.

Do you have an opinion on our LBs? I don't recognize anyone but Roquan.

Along with your mention about Mooney getting injured...imagine Whithair getting injured and losing the only guy on the line that's not young/a question mark. I feel like we somehow have less depth on the o-line than last year. Scary.

Not having a 3T in this defense is a massive hole

 

[rawdawg]

Not having a 3T in this defense is a massive hole

Colts didn't have a 3T for the first 2 years under Eberflus, still top 10-15 units.

 

[Les Grossman]

One thing often lost when looking at teams from year to year is the baseline of the league. Sure, we got two starters in the 2nd round, but so did teams like Detroit, Philly, the Giants and Jets, just with much higher picks. If Fields is in line for improvement, so is Zach Wilson and others. We like to cite the easy schedule, and it is, but all the reasons we're citing for being better, so are they... and they generally had more/higher picks.

Exactly this.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Colts didn't have a 3T for the first 2 years under Eberflus, still top 10-15 units.

Yes they did.

They lost Denico Autry to FA (to a division rival Tenn on a multi year deal) then massively upgraded by acquiring Deforest Buckner.

I get it’s easy to equate something to nothing when you compare it to an all pro, but let’s try being a little less lazy.

 

[2MuchChino]

I get it. I've been vocally negative about this off-season, but if you want the reason for optimism, this is it.

I'll even go one further and discuss the inherent contradiction in what I've been arguing and believe. Mainly:
-The Bears record last year was 6-11 but most of their big players were barely available and with what was left, it was worse than what I expect to be on the field this year, even after reasonable injuries this year.
-I also aknowledge that Nagy was bad. But if the roster was as bad as I say, did Nagy overperform? Or am I undervaluing the roster and Nagy really was that bad?

So I'm expecting the roster to be slightly better, the coaching and scheme to be better, but the record to be worse.

I chalk it up to a fluke, and taking a step back think the roster IS bad enough to be awful this year, but it's a logical gap that I haven't quite been able to reconcile.

As for CHGO, I've been listening. I like Hoge still, maybe even more than on H&J. I like Moreano. Im glad Olin is gone. The others are meh. Good pod overall though.

"did Nagy overperform?"

The holes in my den wall from throwing stuff after watching Nagy make one idiotic move after another says otherwise. We all watched it. You can believe your eyes.

 

[2MuchChino]

This and it fits into what Fields does well once the safeties start cheating. I expect a lot of runs, isolations and deep balls.

I haven't seen the additional blocking we should expect from the fullback and tight ends mentioned as an improvement to Fields' situation. I think that will also help tremendously.

 

[rawdawg]

So, I do have to disagree with the premise here (without actually listening to the podcast yet). But I don't think the Bears are necessarily better anywhere, other than DB. It requires projection to say 2022 is better than 2021 at most spots.

QB- Yeah, Fields SHOULD be better. Getting a full camp as the starter, but he is learning a new offense again and the Siemien < Dalton and Foles.

RB- Same group at the top. Damien Williams wasn't any good, but at least he was passable at times. Don't know if any of the depth guys can actually play (I really don't like the RB they drafted and the guy from the Titans isn't good either)

WR- I know Allen Robinson didn't do anything last year, but I think the wrong way to look at it is comparing the 2022 group to 2021 Robinson. Robinson is a really good WR. Pringle and Jones may outproduce him by a bunch, but they are not in the same stratosphere talent-wise. Byrd and Goodwin weren't good, but again, there's no guarantee VJJ will be. So again, projection

TE- This actually should be a better group.

OL- I know everyone argued when I said lost a HOF and a 2nd round talent, but they were the best 2 OL on the team. Jenkins being healthy could be huge. Upgrade at C is nice, but RG is a huge ? still as is LT. Again, only with projection can you make this group better.

Edge- Lost Mack- worse, no matter if you added a guy that knows the D and the fact that Mack missed most of 2021. Simply not as good of a group.

DT- Unlike Robinson, I think you can judge this group based on 2021 Hicks. Where ARob had a down, out of sorts year, Hicks was basically continuing to fall apart. Love Hicks, but even if he was back, not a huge impact guy anymore because can't stay healthy. This group isn't as good, but it's not as far off as many think. Justin Jones is solid and has upside.

LB- next to Roquan was a mess. But still might be a mess this year, with a guy who missed all of 2021. The depth is completely shot too. I think this position is actually downgraded a little, especially since now you need a 3rd guy here on about 15-20% of the snaps.

CB- upgrade simply based on numbers, still needs some projection with a rookie and previously injured Tavon Young and mostly untested Graham Jr here. But I feel safe in saying Gordon and co. should be better than 900 snaps of Vildor and whatever the hell Xavier Crawford was doing out there.

S- this is probably an upgrade too. Jackson and DHC return, Jackson could continue his slip into mediocrity, not safe to assume new scheme will rejuvenate him. Brisker clearly has way more potential than Gipson, but projection again. Cruikshank replaces Deon Bush.

 

[Bearly]

The only position group that got significantly better is the secondary.

True but hopefully the coaching is also much improved. No more of Nagy's idea of successful scheming.

 

[rawdawg]

Yes they did.

They lost Denico Autry to FA (to a division rival Tenn on a multi year deal) then massively upgraded by acquiring Deforest Buckner.

I get it’s easy to equate something to nothing when you compare it to an all pro, but let’s try being a little less lazy.

Try being a little less of a tool. At this point in 2018, Autry wasn't much of a 3T. He had previously played mostly 4-3 DE that kicked inside. He did have a couple big years with the Colts, though, so I do stand corrected....they HAD a 3T the first 2 years, but he did much better than projected, which in theory, could happen with Justin Jones.

 

[Bearly]

The idea that everyone gets better every year is a misnomer. league is what it is and doesn't suddenly become that much better year to year. It's simply a matter of whether the Bears current stew of players and coaches becomes a tastier one. Not having a 1st round pick or cap space would indicate the opposite but it's not a given due to scheme, coaching and skill/luck in evaluating players.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

This offense should live off the run game, that's where the OL/Offense will show it's most improvement. Scoreboard might not reflect major improvement much, but time management and clock control should be much better. Not many coaches derailed drives like Nagy.

The scuttlebutt is that this is exactly where the Bears are going this year -
Supposedly the Bears are intending to run a run-heavy, play action offense. Probably something similar to the offense Minnesota runs.

Frankly, its a VERY good fit for Fields. He's going to be able to really gash some people on the play action.

 

[bamainatlanta]

True but hopefully the coaching is also much improved. No more of Nagy's idea of successful scheming.
View attachment 20021

Nagy isn't the only one that sucked. Desai was another coach that put his players in bad positions. He shouldn't get a pass at all.

 

[Bust]

Nagy isn't the only one that sucked. Desai was another coach that put his players in bad positions. He shouldn't get a pass at all.

but but but fangio disciple

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

Nagy isn't the only one that sucked. Desai was another coach that put his players in bad positions. He shouldn't get a pass at all.

@remydat

Cc: @iueyedoc

 

[Visionman]

One thing often lost when looking at teams from year to year is the baseline of the league. Sure, we got two starters in the 2nd round, but so did teams like Detroit, Philly, the Giants and Jets, just with much higher picks. If Fields is in line for improvement, so is Zach Wilson and others. We like to cite the easy schedule, and it is, but all the reasons we're citing for being better, so are they... and they generally had more/higher picks.

But again, those teams aren’t replacing Nagy and his incompetence at HC. I would say for that fact alone we improved more than them.

 

[Visionman]

So, I do have to disagree with the premise here (without actually listening to the podcast yet). But I don't think the Bears are necessarily better anywhere, other than DB. It requires projection to say 2022 is better than 2021 at most spots.

QB- Yeah, Fields SHOULD be better. Getting a full camp as the starter, but he is learning a new offense again and the Siemien < Dalton and Foles.

RB- Same group at the top. Damien Williams wasn't any good, but at least he was passable at times. Don't know if any of the depth guys can actually play (I really don't like the RB they drafted and the guy from the Titans isn't good either)

WR- I know Allen Robinson didn't do anything last year, but I think the wrong way to look at it is comparing the 2022 group to 2021 Robinson. Robinson is a really good WR. Pringle and Jones may outproduce him by a bunch, but they are not in the same stratosphere talent-wise. Byrd and Goodwin weren't good, but again, there's no guarantee VJJ will be. So again, projection

TE- This actually should be a better group.

OL- I know everyone argued when I said lost a HOF and a 2nd round talent, but they were the best 2 OL on the team. Jenkins being healthy could be huge. Upgrade at C is nice, but RG is a huge ? still as is LT. Again, only with projection can you make this group better.

Edge- Lost Mack- worse, no matter if you added a guy that knows the D and the fact that Mack missed most of 2021. Simply not as good of a group.

DT- Unlike Robinson, I think you can judge this group based on 2021 Hicks. Where ARob had a down, out of sorts year, Hicks was basically continuing to fall apart. Love Hicks, but even if he was back, not a huge impact guy anymore because can't stay healthy. This group isn't as good, but it's not as far off as many think. Justin Jones is solid and has upside.

LB- next to Roquan was a mess. But still might be a mess this year, with a guy who missed all of 2021. The depth is completely shot too. I think this position is actually downgraded a little, especially since now you need a 3rd guy here on about 15-20% of the snaps.

CB- upgrade simply based on numbers, still needs some projection with a rookie and previously injured Tavon Young and mostly untested Graham Jr here. But I feel safe in saying Gordon and co. should be better than 900 snaps of Vildor and whatever the hell Xavier Crawford was doing out there.

S- this is probably an upgrade too. Jackson and DHC return, Jackson could continue his slip into mediocrity, not safe to assume new scheme will rejuvenate him. Brisker clearly has way more potential than Gipson, but projection again. Cruikshank replaces Deon Bush.

You are saying players that DIDNT perform last year were better based upon reputation and talent…that didn’t produce like they were supposed to. How does that make sense?

 

[JoJoBoxer]

I get it. I've been vocally negative about this off-season, but if you want the reason for optimism, this is it.

I'll even go one further and discuss the inherent contradiction in what I've been arguing and believe. Mainly:
-The Bears record last year was 6-11 but most of their big players were barely available and with what was left, it was worse than what I expect to be on the field this year, even after reasonable injuries this year.
-I also aknowledge that Nagy was bad. But if the roster was as bad as I say, did Nagy overperform? Or am I undervaluing the roster and Nagy really was that bad?

So I'm expecting the roster to be slightly better, the coaching and scheme to be better, but the record to be worse.

I chalk it up to a fluke, and taking a step back think the roster IS bad enough to be awful this year, but it's a logical gap that I haven't quite been able to reconcile.

As for CHGO, I've been listening. I like Hoge still, maybe even more than on H&J. I like Moreano. Im glad Olin is gone. The others are meh. Good pod overall though.

Nagy was worse, much worse, than what you think.

 

[Bearly]

Nagy isn't the only one that sucked. Desai was another coach that put his players in bad positions. He shouldn't get a pass at all.

Nagy is simply the key but most of the staff had issues once Fangio left.