How I would approach the offseason

[beckdawg]

I believe you need to start the offseason with a clear goal. For me that goal would be a soft retool. After 2021 the only "bad" contract the cubs have is Heyward and if Heyward has another year like 2020, his ~$22 AAV isn't even bad. To that end, I don't want to see them entirely blow up the team. They have guys like Hendricks and Darvish who are good pieces. So, my goal for 2021 would be essentially to be fine moving down to a wild card level rather than division champs but in doing so pick up some longer term pieces and then in 2022+ you would have cleaner books for FA and additional prospects you add.

Let's start with Bryant. I'd trade him but there's more of a combo play here. The main issue here is the cubs don't have many internal answers at 3B. There's Christopher Morel but he seems more like a fringe starter prospect. There's Bote but again he seems like a low end starter. There's Baez if you wanna move him to 3B. But after that there's not much. So, trading Bryant creates a bit of a hole. What I would do in conjunction with trading Bryant is to try and acquire Nolan Arenado. Things pre-season got real nasty with him and Colorado. Colorado was also really shit with the 10th worst record in baseball. To add to matters, he hit .253/.303/.434(76 wRC+) in 2020 and is still owed 6 years $199 mil with an opt out after 2021. So the question for Coloardo is do you really want to pay him $35 mil next year to play on a crummy team and then potentially have him opt out and get nothing in return? For the cubs, the question comes mostly down to money. There's no way you pay him the roughly ~$33 mil AAV left. That's Trout/Betts type money and he's just not them. Personally I'd be comfortable in the $23-25 mil range which would mean Colorado would need to eat some where in the neighborhood of $50-60 mil over 6 years. Seems like a lot but keep in mind the Marlins ate $30 mil of Stanton's deal along with $23.7 mil in Castro's contract and Stanton's contract was about $4 mil or so less AAV.

Obviously there's a lot of moving parts there but I think it's an intriguing idea and if Colorado is willing to move him I don't think you're talking about the cubs top prospects given it would be a salary dump and given Colorado doesn't have a ton of leverage. I think Arenado also has a NTC which would make their leverage even higher since rumors were prior to the season that Arenado would like to go to the cubs. If all the parts worked out, I like the idea because Arenado gives the cubs a long term 3B answer with if nothing else a great glove and costs less than the prospects the bryant would likely return meaning the net trade would end up in favor of the cubs. Also, Arenado is a low K rate player which is something the cubs offense sorely lacked.

The next move I'd try to make may end up being more a 2022 FA move but I'd see what the Indians want for lindor. My logic here is that no one seems to know exactly why the cub offense broke but one thing we can say for certain is it looked better with fowler at the top of the line up. Lindor is probably the best lead off hitter in baseball and has a fantastic glove. The Indians are kind of in a similar situation to the cubs with Bryant. So, if you could effectively trade the quality of prospects you get for Bryant for Lindor I like that move. Granted personally I'd say Lindor is worth slightly more than Bryant in trade but I don't think it's a wide gap and the Indians have been known to go quantity over quality in recent trades.

For the Indians the move is pretty simple. They are gonna trade him it's just a matter of to who. For the cubs it answers the lead off hitter question and he's also a low k rate guy as well as being arguably the second best defensive SS in baseball and seemingly a great dude. Plus, you put Arenado's glove next to his at SS and that defense on the left side of the infield would be ridiculous. As for what you do with Baez, I mean Baez has never been my guy but I think you could really go a number of different ways. For those who love him, moving him to 2B just makes your infield defense absurd when you also add in Rizzo at 1B. The middle infield would be a better version of the defense they had with Russell and Baez. If you want to trade Baez that's also an option with bote or hoerner filling in at second.

As for the rest of the offense, I think you pick up Rizzo's option and try to work out a short term deal to keep him around. At C, I'd re-sign Contreras. My thoughts there are that Contreras had one glaring flaw coming into 2020 which was pitch framing and he ended 2020 as one of the better framers in baseball. He's got all the tools defensively now and he's shown he can be a monster bat. If he puts everything together he has the tools to be the best C in baseball. And unlike Baez/Bryant, he wasn't a high draft pick/big money IFA signing. He's more like Hendricks in that regard because I can't even find the dollar amount for his bonus so he probably wasn't over a few 100k at max and in his playing career he's only made about $6 mil.

In terms of the OF, I'd like to see them give Hoerner a longer look at CF in 2021 ST. My thought would be if the DH is still here you move Happ to LF, Heyward stays in RF and you look to DH Schwarber or you could really move around Hoerner/Happ/Schwarber to suit whatever match up a given day has. Basically, I'm more looking for a place holder in CF until Brennen Davis is ready for the majors. Obviously it isn't the most amazing OF ever but this is more in line with what I was saying about just trying to get through 2021 without cratering.

Overall, If the cubs could pull off acquiring Arenado and Lindor and assuming you have Baez at 2B that offense looks a lot more interesting to me and the infield defense would REALLY help the cubs pitching.

In terms of pitching, I don't have a ton to say. Darvish and Hendricks are a pretty solid 1/2. Mills and some combo of Cory Abbott and Tyson Miller is decent depth for your #5 starter though I would consider having an innings eater vet just in case. For the 3/4 slots I'd just hand the ball to Alzolay and Marquez. Alzolay in particular is very interesting to me. In his past 2 seasons he has 136 k's in 103 IP between 4 IP at A+, 65.1 at AAA and 33.2 in 2 seasons in MLB. That's an 11.88 k/9. For reference, Darvish's career K/9 is 11.12. Supposedly Alzolay added a new pitch during the pandemic as well. Now it wouldn't surprise me if that k rate comes down some but the fact it's this high is a really strong sign. Even if it levels out to high 9's that's a really good thing. The one area of weakness of late has been his command which is slightly odd given he had good command prior to 2019. My guess is he's just changed up his pitches some and doesn't quite have full control over them yet. As for Marquez, I mean not much really needs to be said about a lefty who throws 100 mph. Obviously there's questions about him but for me I'd just let him figure things out and take his lumps.

Lester has a $10 mil buy out for 2021. I would consider offering him a 2 year $15-20 mil deal. The idea here being you're on the hook for $10 mil regardless so he gets an extra year and the cubs get an innings eating vet for $5-10 mil over 2 years. If I'm honest, I think Lester may just be done but he's a good leader and having a lefty like him in the club house would likely help Marquez. Plus, even if you don't sign him I'd kinda like to have a vet around rather than just hoping Mills/Abott/Miller are the guy for the #5.

In terms of the bullpen, I'd dangle Kimbrel in trade offers. His first 4 outings in 2020 were shit but his next 14 he posted a 1.42 ERA with 26 k's and 7 walks over 12.2 IP. At $16 mil he's very pricey and wouldn't net much but if the cubs were to eat a fair chunk of that they might be able to get a legit prospect. And if not during the winter you might just wait until next july. Basically, if I could essentially trade Bryant and Kimbrel for prospects and use those prospects to acquire Lindor and Arenado(plus a bunch of cash) I'd probably consider that a win.

As for the rest, I'd likely just try to piece together the bullpen with a bunch of the rejects the cubs tend to sign and coach up. The bullpen isn't going to be a strong point but they've done a really good job of finding cheap guys like Jeffress off the scrap heap and adding in rule 5 type cuts such as Wick and Wieck to piece together enough of a bullpen to make due. Plus Carraway is likely your closer of the future.

 

[CSF77]

My feeling is that they will make a play at Lindor when he hits F/A. They are not in the position to risk a 1 year rental on a team not built to win.

So What I see:

1. Bryant and Schwarber traded. Just best return vs any targets.
2. Lester and Jeffries resigned. Both should take the offers.
3. Alzolay and Mills in the rotation. Marquez in AAA. He needs to learn to command his 4 seam better as that was a big issue in his stint. He had to goto his change to get it over the plate. So he is close and it would be a transition year so a 1 year offer to Lester IMO.
4. Bote at 3B. Not sexy but 2021 is a transition year and they should target Lindor. Baez should be extended but that is not a lock.
5. Rizzo extended. I'm pretty sure he retires as a Cub.
6. 2B I could see them offering a 1 year to Kipnis. Nico needs to prove that he is every day still.
7. Resign Maybin for LF and have him bat #2 behind Happ.

Other than that I see Rucker promoted for middle relief. He has looked strong in smaller stints.

Another thing to look into is Ed Howard's ETA. I really see them gearing up for him to take over SS. So we are talking about a 2 year gap that they need to fill. Lindor might be over their paygrade and resigning Baez and moving him to 3B might be the better play. Just move Bote to back up at that point.

So I just see the Cubs aiming on filtering in youth right now and any trades will be used to add depth to that front.

So it really is not a reboot but a retool. Alzolay and Marquez are close and it doesn't justify a overhaul.

 

[CSF77]

Contreras is the one that I am not sure about. Right now he holds the highest trade return. If we are talking a top 100 SP talent then that could move the needle. The way I look at it is teaching framing is Ross's strong point. Both catchers went from avg->bad to better than avg to excellent. So in reality they could promote Amaya to catch 2 starters and move Caratini to the 3 starter roll.

Like I said it would be more so a return value deal because the depth justifies it. TB would be a interesting match up.

Brendan McKay LHSP

can hit also. Zunino is a bad hitter. It makes sense to counter Darvis/Hendricks/Alzolay with Marquez and McKay.

 

[Chicagosports89]

My feeling is that they will make a play at Lindor when he hits F/A. They are not in the position to risk a 1 year rental on a team not built to win.

So What I see:

1. Bryant and Schwarber traded. Just best return vs any targets.
2. Lester and Jeffries resigned. Both should take the offers.
3. Alzolay and Mills in the rotation. Marquez in AAA. He needs to learn to command his 4 seam better as that was a big issue in his stint. He had to goto his change to get it over the plate. So he is close and it would be a transition year so a 1 year offer to Lester IMO.
4. Bote at 3B. Not sexy but 2021 is a transition year and they should target Lindor. Baez should be extended but that is not a lock.
5. Rizzo extended. I'm pretty sure he retires as a Cub.
6. 2B I could see them offering a 1 year to Kipnis. Nico needs to prove that he is every day still.
7. Resign Maybin for LF and have him bat #2 behind Happ.

Other than that I see Rucker promoted for middle relief. He has looked strong in smaller stints.

Another thing to look into is Ed Howard's ETA. I really see them gearing up for him to take over SS. So we are talking about a 2 year gap that they need to fill. Lindor might be over their paygrade and resigning Baez and moving him to 3B might be the better play. Just move Bote to back up at that point.

So I just see the Cubs aiming on filtering in youth right now and any trades will be used to add depth to that front.

So it really is not a reboot but a retool. Alzolay and Marquez are close and it doesn't justify a overhaul.

If you had Maybin and happ starting everyday, would you really have happ in center?

 

[CSF77]

If you had Maybin and happ starting everyday, would you really have happ in center?

It would be a transition year. In that sense yes. They competed this year with him in CF and he did fine. He was never the problem this year.

So short answer yes. Long answer no. I see Maybin as a contact hitter which fills a need right now. I see Happ in LF when Brennen Davis promotes.

My time line is:

2021: Amaya and Marquez. That is why I am fine with selling high on Contreras because Caritini has proven to be better than back up quality and Amaya is a top 100 talent. Marquez looked close but he also looked green against MLB talent. He needs to take the lesson learned and apply it in AAA. That method has worked as we have seen with Happ.

2022: Davis. He should be ready by then. A full year against higher level will help him. He adapts well but he needs that time investment before attempting that jump.

2023: Earliest ETA on Howard.

So that is my time line and I would adjust accordingly

 

[JimJohnson]

I believe you need to start the offseason with a clear goal. For me that goal would be a soft retool. After 2021 the only "bad" contract the cubs have is Heyward and if Heyward has another year like 2020, his ~$22 AAV isn't even bad. To that end, I don't want to see them entirely blow up the team. They have guys like Hendricks and Darvish who are good pieces. So, my goal for 2021 would be essentially to be fine moving down to a wild card level rather than division champs but in doing so pick up some longer term pieces and then in 2022+ you would have cleaner books for FA and additional prospects you add.

Let's start with Bryant. I'd trade him but there's more of a combo play here. The main issue here is the cubs don't have many internal answers at 3B. There's Christopher Morel but he seems more like a fringe starter prospect. There's Bote but again he seems like a low end starter. There's Baez if you wanna move him to 3B. But after that there's not much. So, trading Bryant creates a bit of a hole. What I would do in conjunction with trading Bryant is to try and acquire Nolan Arenado. Things pre-season got real nasty with him and Colorado. Colorado was also really shit with the 10th worst record in baseball. To add to matters, he hit .253/.303/.434(76 wRC+) in 2020 and is still owed 6 years $199 mil with an opt out after 2021. So the question for Coloardo is do you really want to pay him $35 mil next year to play on a crummy team and then potentially have him opt out and get nothing in return? For the cubs, the question comes mostly down to money. There's no way you pay him the roughly ~$33 mil AAV left. That's Trout/Betts type money and he's just not them. Personally I'd be comfortable in the $23-25 mil range which would mean Colorado would need to eat some where in the neighborhood of $50-60 mil over 6 years. Seems like a lot but keep in mind the Marlins ate $30 mil of Stanton's deal along with $23.7 mil in Castro's contract and Stanton's contract was about $4 mil or so less AAV.

Obviously there's a lot of moving parts there but I think it's an intriguing idea and if Colorado is willing to move him I don't think you're talking about the cubs top prospects given it would be a salary dump and given Colorado doesn't have a ton of leverage. I think Arenado also has a NTC which would make their leverage even higher since rumors were prior to the season that Arenado would like to go to the cubs. If all the parts worked out, I like the idea because Arenado gives the cubs a long term 3B answer with if nothing else a great glove and costs less than the prospects the bryant would likely return meaning the net trade would end up in favor of the cubs. Also, Arenado is a low K rate player which is something the cubs offense sorely lacked.

The next move I'd try to make may end up being more a 2022 FA move but I'd see what the Indians want for lindor. My logic here is that no one seems to know exactly why the cub offense broke but one thing we can say for certain is it looked better with fowler at the top of the line up. Lindor is probably the best lead off hitter in baseball and has a fantastic glove. The Indians are kind of in a similar situation to the cubs with Bryant. So, if you could effectively trade the quality of prospects you get for Bryant for Lindor I like that move. Granted personally I'd say Lindor is worth slightly more than Bryant in trade but I don't think it's a wide gap and the Indians have been known to go quantity over quality in recent trades.

For the Indians the move is pretty simple. They are gonna trade him it's just a matter of to who. For the cubs it answers the lead off hitter question and he's also a low k rate guy as well as being arguably the second best defensive SS in baseball and seemingly a great dude. Plus, you put Arenado's glove next to his at SS and that defense on the left side of the infield would be ridiculous. As for what you do with Baez, I mean Baez has never been my guy but I think you could really go a number of different ways. For those who love him, moving him to 2B just makes your infield defense absurd when you also add in Rizzo at 1B. The middle infield would be a better version of the defense they had with Russell and Baez. If you want to trade Baez that's also an option with bote or hoerner filling in at second.

As for the rest of the offense, I think you pick up Rizzo's option and try to work out a short term deal to keep him around. At C, I'd re-sign Contreras. My thoughts there are that Contreras had one glaring flaw coming into 2020 which was pitch framing and he ended 2020 as one of the better framers in baseball. He's got all the tools defensively now and he's shown he can be a monster bat. If he puts everything together he has the tools to be the best C in baseball. And unlike Baez/Bryant, he wasn't a high draft pick/big money IFA signing. He's more like Hendricks in that regard because I can't even find the dollar amount for his bonus so he probably wasn't over a few 100k at max and in his playing career he's only made about $6 mil.

In terms of the OF, I'd like to see them give Hoerner a longer look at CF in 2021 ST. My thought would be if the DH is still here you move Happ to LF, Heyward stays in RF and you look to DH Schwarber or you could really move around Hoerner/Happ/Schwarber to suit whatever match up a given day has. Basically, I'm more looking for a place holder in CF until Brennen Davis is ready for the majors. Obviously it isn't the most amazing OF ever but this is more in line with what I was saying about just trying to get through 2021 without cratering.

Overall, If the cubs could pull off acquiring Arenado and Lindor and assuming you have Baez at 2B that offense looks a lot more interesting to me and the infield defense would REALLY help the cubs pitching.

In terms of pitching, I don't have a ton to say. Darvish and Hendricks are a pretty solid 1/2. Mills and some combo of Cory Abbott and Tyson Miller is decent depth for your #5 starter though I would consider having an innings eater vet just in case. For the 3/4 slots I'd just hand the ball to Alzolay and Marquez. Alzolay in particular is very interesting to me. In his past 2 seasons he has 136 k's in 103 IP between 4 IP at A+, 65.1 at AAA and 33.2 in 2 seasons in MLB. That's an 11.88 k/9. For reference, Darvish's career K/9 is 11.12. Supposedly Alzolay added a new pitch during the pandemic as well. Now it wouldn't surprise me if that k rate comes down some but the fact it's this high is a really strong sign. Even if it levels out to high 9's that's a really good thing. The one area of weakness of late has been his command which is slightly odd given he had good command prior to 2019. My guess is he's just changed up his pitches some and doesn't quite have full control over them yet. As for Marquez, I mean not much really needs to be said about a lefty who throws 100 mph. Obviously there's questions about him but for me I'd just let him figure things out and take his lumps.

Lester has a $10 mil buy out for 2021. I would consider offering him a 2 year $15-20 mil deal. The idea here being you're on the hook for $10 mil regardless so he gets an extra year and the cubs get an innings eating vet for $5-10 mil over 2 years. If I'm honest, I think Lester may just be done but he's a good leader and having a lefty like him in the club house would likely help Marquez. Plus, even if you don't sign him I'd kinda like to have a vet around rather than just hoping Mills/Abott/Miller are the guy for the #5.

In terms of the bullpen, I'd dangle Kimbrel in trade offers. His first 4 outings in 2020 were shit but his next 14 he posted a 1.42 ERA with 26 k's and 7 walks over 12.2 IP. At $16 mil he's very pricey and wouldn't net much but if the cubs were to eat a fair chunk of that they might be able to get a legit prospect. And if not during the winter you might just wait until next july. Basically, if I could essentially trade Bryant and Kimbrel for prospects and use those prospects to acquire Lindor and Arenado(plus a bunch of cash) I'd probably consider that a win.

As for the rest, I'd likely just try to piece together the bullpen with a bunch of the rejects the cubs tend to sign and coach up. The bullpen isn't going to be a strong point but they've done a really good job of finding cheap guys like Jeffress off the scrap heap and adding in rule 5 type cuts such as Wick and Wieck to piece together enough of a bullpen to make due. Plus Carraway is likely your closer of the future.

I appreciate the details you put into your posts. But, let's say you swap Bryant for Arenado somehow, someway. That doesn't really address the main problem which is that the Cubs lineup as constructed simply can't score runs once they get into late September and the playoffs. Arenado isn't going to be able to do it himself. From what I see from your strategy, the rest of the lineup will basically remain intact. So you're still going to have the same guys making an ass of themselves when facing top quality pitching in the playoffs.

 

[beckdawg]

I appreciate the details you put into your posts. But, let's say you swap Bryant for Arenado somehow, someway. That doesn't really address the main problem which is that the Cubs lineup as constructed simply can't score runs once they get into late September and the playoffs. Arenado isn't going to be able to do it himself. From what I see from your strategy, the rest of the lineup will basically remain intact. So you're still going to have the same guys making an ass of themselves when facing top quality pitching in the playoffs.

You apparently are glossing over the first paragraph. The goal isn't to make this a world series team in 2020. The goal is to improve the long term viability of the team. As things stand, the cubs have a lot of short term players they have to make decisions on.

Swapping Bryant for Arenado likely grants you 6 more years of a 3B as I doubt he'd opt out with the cubs since he apparently wanted to come here prior to this past season and I also doubt he's going to get more money. More importantly, if they did manage to get Arenado at $23-25 mil AAV that's a decent price for one of the better 3B in baseball. Additionally, Arenado is a very low career k rate guy. His career k rate is 15.0%. There's literally a thread on this board talking about the viability of k rate for playoff teams. Strictly speaking, is the cubs offense "better" with this one addition? Probably not. But it's one step forward in addressing one of the cubs bigger weaknesses hitting wise which is their high team k rate. And the added benefit is he is a very good defender and from what I've heard he's a genuinely well liked team mate. Like wise, if you grab Lindor in a trade and presumably re-sign him long term you are getting a good guy with a great glove who's well liked, has a low career k rate of 14.1% and who's been one of the best lead off hitters in baseball since he debuted.

Those two moves solidify the left side of your infield for the next 6 or so years with two players who are among the best in terms of K rates in baseball. To give you some idea of what I'm talking about, let's say you replaced the 634 PAs Bryant had in 2019 with Arenado K rate and the 550 PAs Bote/Descalso had at 2B with Lindor the cubs would have struck out 122 times fewer dropping their 2019 team k rate from 22.5% to 20.4% which would take the cubs from 17th in the majors to 6th.

That's a major change and while it's likely not the only moves you'd need to make in order for them to be a world series contender in 2022, that's a big step forward. When you add in Rizzo's career 15.8% K rate and Heyward's 17.4% K rate, it gives the offense a lot more balls in play especially if Hoerner is going to be a regular contributor as his minor league K rate is 9.6%. That's 5 likely regular contributors who are well below the league average k rate of roughly 23%. That's an entirely different type of baseball than the 2015-2020 cubs have played which was walk rates, homers and K's.

Simply put, the goal I'm aiming for with this line of thought is changing the culture of the offense to put more balls in play. Having a line up full of guys who K at 25%+ rates is just asking for trouble when you have every pitcher in baseball seemingly throwing 95+. So many better outcomes can happen just by putting a ball in play. You can get fluke hits. You can get errors. And on top of that it's far more enjoyable baseball to watch.

 

[CSF77]

You apparently are glossing over the first paragraph. The goal isn't to make this a world series team in 2020. The goal is to improve the long term viability of the team. As things stand, the cubs have a lot of short term players they have to make decisions on.

Swapping Bryant for Arenado likely grants you 6 more years of a 3B as I doubt he'd opt out with the cubs since he apparently wanted to come here prior to this past season and I also doubt he's going to get more money. More importantly, if they did manage to get Arenado at $23-25 mil AAV that's a decent price for one of the better 3B in baseball. Additionally, Arenado is a very low career k rate guy. His career k rate is 15.0%. There's literally a thread on this board talking about the viability of k rate for playoff teams. Strictly speaking, is the cubs offense "better" with this one addition? Probably not. But it's one step forward in addressing one of the cubs bigger weaknesses hitting wise which is their high team k rate. And the added benefit is he is a very good defender and from what I've heard he's a genuinely well liked team mate. Like wise, if you grab Lindor in a trade and presumably re-sign him long term you are getting a good guy with a great glove who's well liked, has a low career k rate of 14.1% and who's been one of the best lead off hitters in baseball since he debuted.

Those two moves solidify the left side of your infield for the next 6 or so years with two players who are among the best in terms of K rates in baseball. To give you some idea of what I'm talking about, let's say you replaced the 634 PAs Bryant had in 2019 with Arenado K rate and the 550 PAs Bote/Descalso had at 2B with Lindor the cubs would have struck out 122 times fewer dropping their 2019 team k rate from 22.5% to 20.4% which would take the cubs from 17th in the majors to 6th.

That's a major change and while it's likely not the only moves you'd need to make in order for them to be a world series contender in 2022, that's a big step forward. When you add in Rizzo's career 15.8% K rate and Heyward's 17.4% K rate, it gives the offense a lot more balls in play especially if Hoerner is going to be a regular contributor as his minor league K rate is 9.6%. That's 5 likely regular contributors who are well below the league average k rate of roughly 23%. That's an entirely different type of baseball than the 2015-2020 cubs have played which was walk rates, homers and K's.

Simply put, the goal I'm aiming for with this line of thought is changing the culture of the offense to put more balls in play. Having a line up full of guys who K at 25%+ rates is just asking for trouble when you have every pitcher in baseball seemingly throwing 95+. So many better outcomes can happen just by putting a ball in play. You can get fluke hits. You can get errors. And on top of that it's far more enjoyable baseball to watch.

It is a option but a unlikely one at best. I just see most teams looking to shed contract and that deal is unattractive in a covid situation. On the other hand Bryant is attractive because it is not long term and geared as a rental that they can choose to offer arb at year end.

I would still approach it as trading Bryant and Schwarber. Resign Maybin for LF. That gets rid of 1 problem. Bote is worse than Bryant but he is under control and we really don't know what his potential is in a starting roll.

Long term I would resign Baez and wait on Ed Howard. I See him promoted at age 22. That would be 2023. They are paying Bote until 2024 so that could end up a solid investment if Bote can put up +100 wRC+. In a part time role he holds a 100 wRC+ so getting regular time could be a option.

Now J.J. is looking at this as if not going for a win then blow it up. I can respect that. I see Theo doing this year is reduce payroll and transition to the next wave of talent. It seems like Jed will take over in 2022 so it should be a continuation of the reload. Now The goal will be to reduce and if they win along the way that is great.

NYY pretty much did the same thing. There was a small turn around to put them back in the drivers seat. But they had to get payroll under control.

 

[beckdawg]

It is a option but a unlikely one at best. I just see most teams looking to shed contract and that deal is unattractive in a covid situation. On the other hand Bryant is attractive because it is not long term and geared as a rental that they can choose to offer arb at year end.

To what end? Using baseball ref's contract page the cubs are looking at roughly $193.6M if they pick up every option and arb case for 2021. They aren't gonna pick up descalso's $3.5 mil so that's $2.5 mil given he has a $1 mil buyout. They also aren't picking up Lester's $25 mil option and will likely just eat the buy out of $10 mil or do like I suggested and renegotiate a deal. But for the sake of argument let's just say he's fully gone and they save $15 mil more. That puts their payroll at $176.1 mil.

Bryant made $18.6 mil in arb last year. Lindor made $17.5. So, worst case those two would roughly be a wash but Lindor looks likely to be slightly cheaper in 2021 and after 2021 it doesn't really matter as much because most of the big contracts will be gone. As for Arenado at like $23-25 mil, the cubs are losing Q and Chatwood for $10.5 mil and $13 mil respectively. So, essentially Arenado would be just replacing their money and you fill in the rotation with young players like Alzolay.

Point here is this isn't really making much difference in their budget. In 2022, they are on the books for $143.6M if everything is picked up. I mean yeah if you have Arenado and Lindor that'd be closer to $200 mil but the point here is they aren't in a situation where bad contracts have piled up and adding them hurts them. The fact they did nothing the past 2 offseasons let them reset already.

And the thing is, what are they going to do with the money? I mean they aren't just going to go out and be a $140 mil payroll team. It's gonna get spent some where. If it's not Lindor in a trade/re-sign it probably will be a consideration in FA after 2021 anyways.

I can see an argument against Arenado but like I said the cubs don't have a ton of attractive options at 3B unless you plan on playing Baez there. I just look at it like this... the rockies are in a bind with Arenado. Someone should take advantage of that situation because Arenado can be a very good player. Look at the Stanton trade for the Yankees.... they gave up Castro, Jose Devers, and Jorge Guzman. Guzman is an ok pitching prospect but he's 18th best prospect in the Marlins system. Devers is the 32nd best prospect in Miami's system. Castro put up 3.6 fWAR over 2 years in Miami. Stanton has only been healthy the one season(2018) but he put up 4.3 fWAR which essentially already made the value worth it.

 

[CSF77]

It is a unstable situation going into 2021. If they lose fan revenues then they are not going to run a 200 mil team.

It is simple as that. I foresee players going into F/A taking arb cases at this point and teams not offering.

 

[CSF77]

Some Ideas that I came up with:

Schwarber for Folty. Strait. Let's Atl shed contract in LF so they can target Bauer. That is a 1 year problem solver for both teams.

Bryant to LAD. Michael Busch LH 2B. Long term Replacement at 2B. Set as a platoon with Hoerner.

Add in a arm Michael Groove would be a solid choice. 6'3" RHSP.

Contreras to TB for Brendan McKay (#12 on top 100). Strait trade.

This pushes the winning window and lowers payroll. Schwarber and Folty is a wash. Bryant and Contreras is around 30 mil off the books.

It bolsters SP depth. It gives a replacement for the rotation this year and gives a long term solution for 2B.

 

[beckdawg]

It is a unstable situation going into 2021. If they lose fan revenues then they are not going to run a 200 mil team.

The fuck? You realize they've been running running essentially a $200 mil payroll since 2016 and that was before they had their own regional sports network. I have no idea why you think their budget is suddenly going to shrink. You want to argue on whether or not they are a $250 mil payroll team like LA/BOS....etc fine. But $200 mil is barely anything. I mean for fuck sake STL's 2019 and 2020 ending payroll was $197.7 mil and $185.2 mil. The cubs aren't losing that much revenue.

 

[CSF77]

https://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/news/2020/10/01/mlb-projected-gameday-revenue-lost.html

 

[CSF77]

Cubs came in #3.

Lost 354 mil in fan revenues

So it mattered. To say that it doesn't matter is a bit strange to say Beck. That TV deal is not replacing the loss the Cubs took.

 

[JimJohnson]

If Ricketts starts cutting payroll too much, he will be run out of town.

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs came in #3.

Lost 354 mil in fan revenues

So it mattered. To say that it doesn't matter is a bit strange to say Beck. That TV deal is not replacing the loss the Cubs took.

You're talking like that is a continual loss year to year vs a one off event. Also, you're acting like this is them flat out losing $354 mil dollars when in fact this is suggesting what they would have made if a normal season had happened. Those two things are not the same because the cubs and every other major league team cut expenses. This includes various forms of layoffs and the fact that they didn't pay any of their traditional minor league expenses. One of the largest expenses is player payroll and MLB teams went from paying 162 games to 60. So, a $200 mil payroll effectively would be around $74 mil. All told, I'd estimate the cubs 2020 expenses were likely more in the $100 mil range.

Teams aren't going to come out and say how much money they make so what they actually made is difficult to determine. But you know as well as I do that they wouldn't have played games this season if they weren't making money off the deal. I'll concede that it's very likely they lost money in 2020 but it sure as shit isn't $350 mil. I'd wager it is closer to $50 mil which doesn't include any profits the team has made year to year since Ricketts bought the team. Additionally, all of these losses will be a MASSIVE tax right off because while they didn't physically lose $350 mil in 2020 they can claim those potential losses in revenue against taxes.

And this discussion is frankly a moot point anyways because you're essentially suggesting they are going to say "Oh we lost x money in 2020 so we take that directly out of the 2021 budget!" That's not how business works. We know for a fact that the ownership group is willing to go into the ~$250 mil range after luxury tax and what not because that is where the 2019 team finished. The team scaled back in FA the past offseason not because they lacked the money but instead because like numerous other teams they didn't want to keep hitting the luxury tax.

I will concede it's plausible that the ownership will scale back whatever their potential budget would have been but as I said you don't do that over one year. Let's say for the sake of argument that they had a net loss of $50 mil in 2020. A typical business would decrease your budget something like $10 mil a year over a 5 year period rather than $50 mil directly after a bad event. And again, what's being ignored here is that the cubs already scaled back their budget the past 2 years thanks to that luxury tax. It's very likely that had the pandemic not hit that the cubs would have had a $220-$230 mil budget. So, even if it is scaled back some because of 2020 I strongly doubt it drops below $200 mil.

 

[knoxville7]

Forget arenado and lindor. Not happening. And certainly aren’t going to flip Bryant and Kimbrel and use the prospects from that to acquire arenado and lindor. Bryant will net you maybe 1 top 100 prospect at this point, and that may be generous. Kimbrel won’t net you much more than a bag of baseballs. He makes a lot of money and is long in the tooth...not exactly a combo that yields much of a return in a trade. Let’s be a bit more realistic here people

 

[beckdawg]

Forget arenado and lindor. Not happening. And certainly aren’t going to flip Bryant and Kimbrel and use the prospects from that to acquire arenado and lindor. Bryant will net you maybe 1 top 100 prospect at this point, and that may be generous. Kimbrel won’t net you much more than a bag of baseballs. He makes a lot of money and is long in the tooth...not exactly a combo that yields much of a return in a trade. Let’s be a bit more realistic here people

What do you think Lindor is going to go for? He's literally in the same position as Bryant. And like I initially said, it's not like Cleveland has raked teams over the coals for prospects. Look at what they got for Clevenger who they arguably had more leverage with.

As for Kimbrel, you're undervaluing reliever cost. Yes Kimbrel is making a decent amount of money but I literally addressed that by saying the cubs would need to eat a decent chunk of his deal to get anything of value but I also said that didn't matter so much because it's not like they are going to add a bunch of payroll via FA. As for his age.... it's literally a 1 year deal. That's exactly why it's an attractive piece if the cubs ate money. Any reliever of his ability is going to get multiple years.

Now I want to be clear, I don't think you're getting a top 100 guy for Kimbrel. But I mean is Kimbrel with eaten salary really less desirable than Shane Greene was in 2019? He netted detroit Joey Wentz and Travis Demeritte. Wentz is the #8 prospect in a pretty decent detroit system. Travis Demeritte looks more like a bench bat at best. Not a huge return by any stretch but I don't think Colorado would get a huge return for Arenado at this point either since the are dumping $100's of millions in contract on another team. There's no surplus value there for him because any team who would want him would want him at what they view his FA market value.

 

[CSF77]

And this discussion is frankly a moot point anyways because you're essentially suggesting they are going to say "Oh we lost x money in 2020 so we take that directly out of the 2021 budget!" That's not how business works. We know for a fact that the ownership group is willing to go into the ~$250 mil range after luxury tax and what not because that is where the 2019 team finished. The team scaled back in FA the past offseason not because they lacked the money but instead because like numerous other teams they didn't want to keep hitting the luxury tax.

I never said that. What I said is, if Crona is not going away, which most likely we will be still in masks at this point next year then teams are going to have to project payrolls accordantly. That affects 2021. @020's show of loses of revenues relates to 2021's projected payroll.

I am still baffled how you are not seeing this for what it is. Do you expect full seats next year? That would mean there was a 100% effective vax vs a blowhard's opinion of things magic and crap.

 

[CSF77]

Now I want to be clear, I don't think you're getting a top 100 guy for Kimbrel. But I mean is Kimbrel with eaten salary really less desirable than Shane Greene was in 2019? He netted detroit Joey Wentz and Travis Demeritte. Wentz is the #8 prospect in a pretty decent detroit system. Travis Demeritte looks more like a bench bat at best. Not a huge return by any stretch but I don't think Colorado would get a huge return for Arenado at this point either since the are dumping $100's of millions in contract on another team. There's no surplus value there for him because any team who would want him would want him at what they view his FA market value.

I wouldn't trade any players with +control. It really doesn't have much to do with a payroll drop. Kimbrel finally showed what he can do towards the end and that plays out going forward. Not to mention I expect 2021 as a mulligan and 2022 a contending squad. They need to fix payroll and future commitments and by then the future of baseball will be a clearer pix.