How I would approach the offseason

CSF77

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I don't see Lindor as a rental. If you are trading for him you are re-signing him IMO.


As in the above. He was signed to 17.5 mil last year and should get a raise off of that.

Theo has not signed anyone over 184 mil much less the 300 mil price tag that Lindor is looking at.

So to put things into perspective. They have a GG candidate at SS and 2B. Both are high draft picks in their own right. They drafted a high end SS in the last draft that should be as good as Lindor D wise at SS. He is 4 years out aprrox. But you never know with the current landscape. Talent is getting rushed if it is high end. We could see him in 2 years just as easy.
 

beckdawg

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As in the above. He was signed to 17.5 mil last year and should get a raise off of that.

Theo has not signed anyone over 184 mil much less the 300 mil price tag that Lindor is looking at.

So to put things into perspective. They have a GG candidate at SS and 2B. Both are high draft picks in their own right. They drafted a high end SS in the last draft that should be as good as Lindor D wise at SS. He is 4 years out aprrox. But you never know with the current landscape. Talent is getting rushed if it is high end. We could see him in 2 years just as easy.
Hoerner can play CF. Baez can play 3B. Also, Baez is only under team control for one more year.
 

CSF77

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Hoerner can play CF. Baez can play 3B. Also, Baez is only under team control for one more year.


They have Davis who should be ready in 2022 and is a CF.

I believe that they need to keep the square peg in the correct home. Joe tinkered. Theo said there was issue going on. David comes in and tries to promote stability. Injury forced change with him in Bryant going down and Happ leading off. That was not the plan.

So I believe if a player is considered GG quality then it means the shoe fits . All that matters is justifying PA with wRC+. Not pushing off position then weakening another one.

End of the day the Cubs have a 55 rated CF pending. They have SS and 2B set with GG quality talent. 3B is the issue going forward. Not SS. If you want to argue Nolan I get it. The Cubs do not have a now answer to 3B. They have a crutch until Howard taking over SS and then the issue of extending Baez.

Now what they could do is target Simmons and move Baez to 3B then trade Bryant. That way it gives them a short term answer and cost relief that opens up payroll to lock up Baez.

The reason why I would extend Baez is he ages to 3B. Add to it his OBA will always be pointed towards his lackings. This will force him from ever getting a Lindor contract. His target is 200 Mil vs 300 mil and that is something I believe Tom Ricketts is more willing to do.

At the end of the day Javy is a showman and popular. That translates to $$$$. Tom is a business man at the end of the day. That makes sense vs investing into KB who is injured frequently and lacks the energy Javy brings. Add to it will demand over market. Bryant is not 300 mil talent but will demand it.
 
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Zvbxrpl

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I don't think the cubs are getting any solid kind of return for KB at this point, let alone him being a headliner for Nolan Arenado (who now chooses where to go as his full no-trade kicks in). Theo should have traded him a year ago and you would have gotten 1-2 blue chip specs in return. You'd be lucky to get one decent spec for him now after his dogshit year and injuries. If trading him is the option because he wont stay longterm, you hold onto him, hoping he catches fire 1st half of 2021 and you flip him at the deadline. Holding onto him as he walks into free agency is a bad idea.

Lock up Baez and Rizzo longterm.

If you get the right return, goodbye Schwarber and Willie.

Keep Kipnis.

If the price is right, keep Chatwood. Right price being under half of the 13 and change mil per he stole for the last 3 years.

Keep Jeffress. He and Rowan Wick are a nice late-game pen duo.

Release Craig Kimbrel and eat a bad year of money.

Its long past time for the approach Jed/Theo have taken for 'throwing a bucket of shit at the wall and hoping it sticks' in terms of drafting pen arms in bulk to start producing fruit. Looking at Ryan Jensen, Brendan Little, Burl Carraway, and Michael McAvine in particular--the 'should be ready quick' college arms on draft day that haven't been ready quickly. Kohl Franklin probably needs another year at least in the minors. I'd keep Alzolay in the pen.

Marquez should get seasoning then be a summertime call up.

I'd buy low on a guy like Mike Minor or Wacha to replace Q at the back end of the rotation. I doubt the cubs will be in the Paxton, Robbie Ray, Stroman, or Bauer sweepstakes. I'd try to keep Lester as well, rolling with Yu, Kyle, Mills, Lester, Minor/Wacha until Marquez is up.

The cubs are below the middle of the pack in terms of international money at 5.3 mil. Dump it all into one of these top middle infielders. Don't think you're getting little Cespedes because 6-7 teams have top level lot money and are linked to him
 
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beckdawg

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They have Davis who should be ready in 2022 and is a CF.

"Should be." Doesn't mean he will be. Like I think you're trying to predict the future a bit too much here. Schwarber has one year of arbitration left. Heyward has 3 years left on his deal as does Happ having team control. Plus you're assume Hoerner hits. They could easily ride out 2021 with those 3 OFers and then in 2022 let Schwarber walk. The cubs still don't have a rock solid solution at 3B either. So, even if they keep Baez thats a position he can play. Bote isn't going to murder you but he's not a guy i'd want starting on a playoff team. Planning this team around howard who is bare minimum 5 years away is a bit nuts.

End of the day, I get the idea of trying to save money but I'll say it again, who are you spending your money on? You think Arenado is a better investment than Lindor? Do you think Baez is? I don't care how popular Baez is if he doesn't hit people will hate him.

I've been saying this since he was a prospect, he's going to be a guy who rides hot streaks not someone who is a consistent player year to year a la Rizzo. At this point we have nearly 3000 PAs. He's got a career 28.4% k rate. The thing with players who strike out at that rate is their stats are directly tied to BABIP far more than people with low strike out rates. So, when Baez is a .340 BABIP player he's a 114-130 wRC+ hitter. But we saw a 59 game sample where his BABIP was .262 and he was a replacement level hitter hitting .203/.238/.360(56 wRC+).

That in a nutshell is what's wrong with the team because the cubs have so many players with above average K rates. When they are all clicking they look unstoppable. When BABIP doesn't fall their way they look like utter shit. I mean you're talking about Happ in a good year with a 27.3% K rate. Contreras had a 25.3% k rate. Bryant had a 27.2% k rate. Schwarber had a 29.5% k rate. Bote had a 27.6% k rate. Even Caratini was above average at 23.5%.

Of the cubs top 10 hitters only Heyward, Rizzo and Hoerner were below league average in K rate. That's the reason you need to add hitters like Lindor. It's also why you look at Rizzo's career at a 15.8% career K rate and the guy looks like a fucking metronome. 155 wRC+, 145 wRC+, 145 wRC+, 134 wRC+, 125 wRC+, and 141 wRC+ in his last 6 full seasons excluding 2020 because obviously this was a strange year. Lindor's career k rate is 14.1%. He's going to be a consistent player.
 

CSF77

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"Should be." Doesn't mean he will be. Like I think you're trying to predict the future a bit too much here. Schwarber has one year of arbitration left. Heyward has 3 years left on his deal as does Happ having team control. Plus you're assume Hoerner hits. They could easily ride out 2021 with those 3 OFers and then in 2022 let Schwarber walk. The cubs still don't have a rock solid solution at 3B either. So, even if they keep Baez thats a position he can play. Bote isn't going to murder you but he's not a guy i'd want starting on a playoff team. Planning this team around howard who is bare minimum 5 years away is a bit nuts.

End of the day, I get the idea of trying to save money but I'll say it again, who are you spending your money on? You think Arenado is a better investment than Lindor? Do you think Baez is? I don't care how popular Baez is if he doesn't hit people will hate him.

I've been saying this since he was a prospect, he's going to be a guy who rides hot streaks not someone who is a consistent player year to year a la Rizzo. At this point we have nearly 3000 PAs. He's got a career 28.4% k rate. The thing with players who strike out at that rate is their stats are directly tied to BABIP far more than people with low strike out rates. So, when Baez is a .340 BABIP player he's a 114-130 wRC+ hitter. But we saw a 59 game sample where his BABIP was .262 and he was a replacement level hitter hitting .203/.238/.360(56 wRC+).

That in a nutshell is what's wrong with the team because the cubs have so many players with above average K rates. When they are all clicking they look unstoppable. When BABIP doesn't fall their way they look like utter shit. I mean you're talking about Happ in a good year with a 27.3% K rate. Contreras had a 25.3% k rate. Bryant had a 27.2% k rate. Schwarber had a 29.5% k rate. Bote had a 27.6% k rate. Even Caratini was above average at 23.5%.

Of the cubs top 10 hitters only Heyward, Rizzo and Hoerner were below league average in K rate. That's the reason you need to add hitters like Lindor. It's also why you look at Rizzo's career at a 15.8% career K rate and the guy looks like a fucking metronome. 155 wRC+, 145 wRC+, 145 wRC+, 134 wRC+, 125 wRC+, and 141 wRC+ in his last 6 full seasons excluding 2020 because obviously this was a strange year. Lindor's career k rate is 14.1%. He's going to be a consistent player.


Is he worth it is not in question. Is Tom going to flip the bill is.

Yu Darvish rhp
6 years/$126M (2018-23)

Jason Heyward rf
8 years/$184M (2016-23)

Jon Lester lhp
6 years/$155M (2015-20), plus 2021 option


Anthony Rizzo 1b
7 years/$41M (2013-19), plus 2020-21 options

Craig Kimbrel rhp
3 years/$43M (2019-21), plus 2022 option

Tyler Chatwood rhp
3 years/$38M (2018-20)

Kyle Hendricks rhp
4 years/$55.5M (2020-23), plus 2024 option

David Bote 2b
5 years/$15M (2020-24), plus 2025 and 2026 options

Daniel Descalso 3b-ss
2 years/$5M (2019-20), plus 2021 option


Where is this history that leads to the discussion that they will pay out a mega deal. I see 2nd tier signings over and over again.
 

CSF77

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I don't think the cubs are getting any solid kind of return for KB at this point, let alone him being a headliner for Nolan Arenado (who now chooses where to go as his full no-trade kicks in). Theo should have traded him a year ago and you would have gotten 1-2 blue chip specs in return. You'd be lucky to get one decent spec for him now after his dogshit year and injuries. If trading him is the option because he wont stay longterm, you hold onto him, hoping he catches fire 1st half of 2021 and you flip him at the deadline. Holding onto him as he walks into free agency is a bad idea.

Lock up Baez and Rizzo longterm.

If you get the right return, goodbye Schwarber and Willie.

Keep Kipnis.

If the price is right, keep Chatwood. Right price being under half of the 13 and change mil per he stole for the last 3 years.

Keep Jeffress. He and Rowan Wick are a nice late-game pen duo.

Release Craig Kimbrel and eat a bad year of money.

Its long past time for the approach Jed/Theo have taken for 'throwing a bucket of shit at the wall and hoping it sticks' in terms of drafting pen arms in bulk to start producing fruit. Looking at Ryan Jensen, Brendan Little, Burl Carraway, and Michael McAvine in particular--the 'should be ready quick' college arms on draft day that haven't been ready quickly. Kohl Franklin probably needs another year at least in the minors. I'd keep Alzolay in the pen.

Marquez should get seasoning then be a summertime call up.

I'd buy low on a guy like Mike Minor or Wacha to replace Q at the back end of the rotation. I doubt the cubs will be in the Paxton, Robbie Ray, Stroman, or Bauer sweepstakes. I'd try to keep Lester as well, rolling with Yu, Kyle, Mills, Lester, Minor/Wacha until Marquez is up.

The cubs are below the middle of the pack in terms of international money at 5.3 mil. Dump it all into one of these top middle infielders. Don't think you're getting little Cespedes because 6-7 teams have top level lot money and are linked to him


If they release Kimbrel then they have to flip the bill. There is no saving grace. For that matter why would you?

Aug: 6.2 IP 6.75 ERA
Sept: 7.1 IP 0.00 ERA

He was trending correctly this year.

They have said that Alzolay is part of the rotation. So he is not a BP arm.

Chatwood is going to walk. Offering him arb would be over what he would make on the market and he would take it. This case you cut your losses. He has not proven reliable in 3 years.

Kipnis if the cash is right. He did what he was paid to do.

KB is debatable in value. His issue has been health not talent. This year has been off in general with the hitting. Beck hit in on the head that they need more higher contact rate hitters and less wait out count hitters. You want a mix of both.
 

CSF77

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End of the day, I get the idea of trying to save money but I'll say it again, who are you spending your money on? You think Arenado is a better investment than Lindor? Do you think Baez is? I don't care how popular Baez is if he doesn't hit people will hate him.

Only if he makes 200 mil and puts up Jay Hey production. Funzy slides become pricy.
 

beckdawg

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Is he worth it is not in question. Is Tom going to flip the bill is.
Not sure I get this logic. The cubs have paid top of the market prices for multiple players in various offseasons. If you're making the claim that they haven't given anyone $300 mil.... that's kind of a flimsy argument because how many players in baseball have $300 mil contracts? Also ownership has no real play in this decision. They have always allowed Theo to make whatever moves he wanted as long as they were within the budget.

If you want to claim that Lindor isn't going to be able to fit in whatever budget the cubs have then fine. I disagree but fine. But ownership isn't going to tell the ops team who the can and can't sign.
 

CSF77

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Not sure I get this logic. The cubs have paid top of the market prices for multiple players in various offseasons. If you're making the claim that they haven't given anyone $300 mil.... that's kind of a flimsy argument because how many players in baseball have $300 mil contracts? Also ownership has no real play in this decision. They have always allowed Theo to make whatever moves he wanted as long as they were within the budget.

If you want to claim that Lindor isn't going to be able to fit in whatever budget the cubs have then fine. I disagree but fine. But ownership isn't going to tell the ops team who the can and can't sign.


215M is the cap. They would go over a 3rd time. This is not going to happen.

15M is benefits
2.25M for 40 man minors
3.5M 0-3 year players
101.5M Obligations
70M expected arb cases.

192.25M is what to expect if they do nothing.

That leaves some flexibility to add payroll if needed.

That is where they are at right now in a bubble.
 

beckdawg

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215M is the cap. They would go over a 3rd time. This is not going to happen.

15M is benefits
2.25M for 40 man minors
3.5M 0-3 year players
101.5M Obligations
70M expected arb cases.

192.25M is what to expect if they do nothing.

That leaves some flexibility to add payroll if needed.

That is where they are at right now in a bubble.
$190 mil is assuming they pick up bryant's arbitration. Bryant made $18.6M in arbitration last year. Lindor made $17.5M. The presumption is you're trading one for the other. Whatever Bryant is going to cost in 2021, Lindor will make less. That's just the way arbitration works. And assuming you re-sign him, the value you put on 2021's portion of the re-sign will directly correlate to whatever he'd get in arbitration. He wouldn't hit the upper range of his contract values until 2022+
 

CSF77

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As in nothing I mean not extend Lester and not resign Jeffress or go after F/A.

That would mean 3 SP would self developed next year and they would have to become dependent on internal development bull pen.
 

CSF77

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$190 mil is assuming they pick up bryant's arbitration. Bryant made $18.6M in arbitration last year. Lindor made $17.5M. The presumption is you're trading one for the other. Whatever Bryant is going to cost in 2021, Lindor will make less. That's just the way arbitration works. And assuming you re-sign him, the value you put on 2021's portion of the re-sign will directly correlate to whatever he'd get in arbitration. He wouldn't hit the upper range of his contract values until 2022+



19 Bryant
11.25 Baez
8 Schwarber
5.5 Contreras
3 Happ
2.2 Martinez
1.6 Almora
1.25 Tepera
1.25 Winkler
1 Carartini
1 Ryan
.9 Brothers
.9 Rea

Sure they could cut losses off the bottom half. Not offer Martines, Almora, Tepera, Winkler, Brothers and Rea.
8.1 M Give Jeffress a 3/15 M deal. This solves the 7-9 pretty much over the next 3 years. Then promote from with in, They have Steele, Norwood, Miller all in the top 30 and ready for opportunities. Off the list Rucker.
 

greg23

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SI has their top 50 free agents and has the cubs as best fit for 3 of them

Mike Minor SP
Mark Melanson RP
Jackie Bradley CF

We'd also lose Quintana and Jeffres as they are in the top 50 but best fit elsewhere

Think that would be three great signings and likely not to long/expensive contracts as all are 30+

Bradley may be slightly sliding on offense but plays great cf defense and allows us to slide happ to lf and move schwarber (or platoon/dh if in nl)

Melanson can share closer duties with kimbrell and is strike thrower

Minor would be a nice mid rotation piece

All that said, be surprised if we sign one of these guys as we'll be dumpster diving again.
 

beckdawg

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SI has their top 50 free agents and has the cubs as best fit for 3 of them

Mike Minor SP
Mark Melanson RP
Jackie Bradley CF

We'd also lose Quintana and Jeffres as they are in the top 50 but best fit elsewhere

Think that would be three great signings and likely not to long/expensive contracts as all are 30+

Bradley may be slightly sliding on offense but plays great cf defense and allows us to slide happ to lf and move schwarber (or platoon/dh if in nl)

Melanson can share closer duties with kimbrell and is strike thrower

Minor would be a nice mid rotation piece

All that said, be surprised if we sign one of these guys as we'll be dumpster diving again.
I don't see Bradley making sense unless he can only get like a 2 year deal. They are just buying time until Davis is ready. As for Melancon and Minor, I don't really see Melancon. He's gonna be a 36 year old reliever who had a decent year but doesn't really look like a power pitcher. I suppose it depends on his market price which maybe baseball views him like I do and he's cheap in which case sure consider him.

Minor has a bit more legs to it IMO. Cubs probably need a cheapish 5th starter with their group. When I say 5th starter I literally just mean he's the 5th guy not as in he's the #5 starter. For me, he could be the type of guy you sign to trade in july.
 

beckdawg

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According to those sources, the Indians would ideally like a young, controllable shortstop or outfielder, though the exact price will, of course, depend on the trading partner.

This also goes on to talk about the indians wanting a Betts like return. That's probably the ideal return they get but if we humor the argument, that was Jeter Downs, Alex Verdugo, and Connor Wong. I believe at the time most had a 50 grade on downs though that has increased since. Verdugo was a bit of a weird one because he was a back half of the top 100 guy as a prospect but he kinda fizzled a bit upon reaching the majors with LA. Fangraphs had a 50 on him prior to 2019. Wong had a 40 grade on him. That trade was a bit more complicated however because it wasn't just straight up for Betts. Boston also ditched Price's contract along with $48 mil of the remaining $96 mil he was owed.

So, if that's the logic we're going with, I'm fairly sure the cubs can get something close in value to Downs for Bryant and probably something similar to wong. I think they'd likely pick up another piece similar to wong as well. However, if the indians can get that sort of return, the Verdugo piece of the trade would be a bit more than I initially suggested as I'd put more of a 45 grade on the secondary piece. That being said, like I mentioned this is probably ideal circumstances for Lindor's value. So my estimate of a 45 grade plus maybe another 40 grade might be more realistic.

As this pertains to the cubs, I'm not sure the cubs have the current pieces the indians would want given they are looking SS/OF. Howard is likely too young. Verdugo is probably not talented enough to headline. Made and Morel are also pretty young. And ademan has kinda had his value slip a bunch. Roederer kind fits the bill of the OF though.

I could potentially see something like Bryant to the Mets for Ronny Mauricio + other stuff making sense and then using Mauricio to go after Lindor. They got a new owner who probably wants to make a bit of a splash. Andrés Giménez also could make sense if they wanna keep Mauricio and the existence of the two sorta means the other is expendable. Keep in mind they also have Amed Rosario who was a big prospect a few years ago but has yet to put it all together in the majors.
 

CSF77

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This also goes on to talk about the indians wanting a Betts like return. That's probably the ideal return they get but if we humor the argument, that was Jeter Downs, Alex Verdugo, and Connor Wong. I believe at the time most had a 50 grade on downs though that has increased since. Verdugo was a bit of a weird one because he was a back half of the top 100 guy as a prospect but he kinda fizzled a bit upon reaching the majors with LA. Fangraphs had a 50 on him prior to 2019. Wong had a 40 grade on him. That trade was a bit more complicated however because it wasn't just straight up for Betts. Boston also ditched Price's contract along with $48 mil of the remaining $96 mil he was owed.

So, if that's the logic we're going with, I'm fairly sure the cubs can get something close in value to Downs for Bryant and probably something similar to wong. I think they'd likely pick up another piece similar to wong as well. However, if the indians can get that sort of return, the Verdugo piece of the trade would be a bit more than I initially suggested as I'd put more of a 45 grade on the secondary piece. That being said, like I mentioned this is probably ideal circumstances for Lindor's value. So my estimate of a 45 grade plus maybe another 40 grade might be more realistic.

As this pertains to the cubs, I'm not sure the cubs have the current pieces the indians would want given they are looking SS/OF. Howard is likely too young. Verdugo is probably not talented enough to headline. Made and Morel are also pretty young. And ademan has kinda had his value slip a bunch. Roederer kind fits the bill of the OF though.

I could potentially see something like Bryant to the Mets for Ronny Mauricio + other stuff making sense and then using Mauricio to go after Lindor. They got a new owner who probably wants to make a bit of a splash. Andrés Giménez also could make sense if they wanna keep Mauricio and the existence of the two sorta means the other is expendable. Keep in mind they also have Amed Rosario who was a big prospect a few years ago but has yet to put it all together in the majors.


The Mets could go after Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor in a trade during the offseason, but the return might prove prohibitive for New York. As David Lennon of Newsday tweets, the Indians could ask for an Andres GimenezJeff McNeil tandem in trade talks. That would be a lot for the Mets, who saw Gimenez perform well as a rookie in 2020 and who have gotten tremendous production from the versatile McNeil dating back to his 2018 debut. McNeil has batted an outstanding .319/.383/.501 in 1,024 major league plate appearances, so it seems highly unlikely the Mets will part with him and Gimenez for one year of control over Lindor.

This is Happ and Nico for 1 year of Lindor.
 

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KBO’s Eric Jokisch Considering MLB Return
By Connor Byrne | November 6, 2020 at 8:08pm CDT

Korea Baseball Organization left-hander Eric Jokisch had a brief run with the Cubs in 2014, but he hasn’t pitched in the majors since then. It’s possible Jokisch will return to baseball’s highest level next season, though, as Robert Murray of Fansided tweets that he’s “considering” a comeback and is garnering interest from MLB teams.
An 11th-round pick of the Cubs in 2010, Jokisch spent most of his stateside time in the minors, including a 570 2/3-inning run at the Triple-A level with the affiliates of Chicago, Miami, Arizona and Oakland. The soft-tossing Jokisch combined for a 4.02 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in Triple-A ball with those organizations. He did, however, post a sterling 1.88 ERA (alongside a far less encouraging 5.30 FIP) with 6.28 K/9, 2.51 BB/9 and a 51 percent groundball rate in his lone taste of MLB action – a 14 1/3-inning sample size.
While Jokisch, now 31, hasn’t established himself in the majors, he has performed brilliantly since immigrating to Korea before the 2019 campaign. In his two seasons in the KBO, Jokisch has pitched to a 2.66 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 over 335 1/3 frames. Jokisch won the ERA title in the KBO in 2020, Murray notes, and now MLB teams are taking notice.
 

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs
By Tim Dierkes | November 5, 2020 at 11:39am CDT

With a reduced payroll looming and many core pieces entering contract years, will the Cubs finally engineer a shake-up?
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration Eligible Players
This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.
Option Decisions
  • Exercised $16.5MM club option on 1B Anthony Rizzo
  • Declined $25MM club option on SP Jon Lester (paid $10MM buyout)
  • Declined $3.5MM club option on IF Daniel Descalso (paid $1MM buyout)
Free Agents
Though the Cubs won the NL Central in the strange 60-game 2020 season, their season ended in disappointment just as it did in 2018 and 2019. This time, it was a playoff sweep at the hands of the Marlins. Most of the Cubs’ offensive core failed to show up in 2020. Here’s Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein with a quote that might as well have come from the ’18 or ’19 post-mortem press conferences:
Clearly, some change is warranted and necessary. Simply hoping for a better outcome moving forward doesn’t seem like a thoughtful approach. Embracing some change, even significant change, is warranted.
It’s remarkable how little the Cubs’ group of position players has turned over since they won the World Series in 2016. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward — they’re all still here. Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and Schwarber are each now down to one year of control. Epstein’s contract will be up as well, and 2021 is widely expected to be his last hurrah with the Cubs before Jed Hoyer moves into the top chair in the front office. Epstein has avoided change for the sake of change, but this is his last chance to shake up the team and try something different.
Any Cubs shakeup will come against the backdrop of financial austerity, with the team having laid off 100-plus employees, according to Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. And while the pandemic will be the driver of the Cubs’ expected player payroll reduction, it’s not as if they were spending any money in the two previous offseasons. If you’re looking for potential free-agent targets, focus on players at the bottom of our Top 50 Free Agents list, unless the club dumps salary first.
So once again, the winter is all about trade speculation for Cubs fans. The problem? Likely trade candidates Bryant and Schwarber had lousy years with the bat, and Baez was particularly awful. The samples are small. Bryant’s 147 plate appearances would have represented less than a quarter of a season for him based on the 671 he averaged from 2015-17. No one thinks Bryant is now a below-average hitter, given a five-year track record of success before 2020. From a club standpoint, the down year will at least prevent his arbitration salary from climbing much higher than the $18.6MM he was supposed to earn in a full 2020. But even though it was just 147 plate appearances, trading Bryant now is still selling low. At a time when most teams are expected to reduce payroll, who wants to take on roughly $20MM for Bryant while also giving up good players?
I explored specific team matches for Bryant in this post. You can identify about a half-dozen clubs that could work. The Cubs are between a rock and a hard place with Bryant, though. If the Cubs expect Bryant to put up a 4 WAR season in 2021, but no one’s offering much beyond salary relief, they should just keep him. But if they keep him, they cut off a major avenue for making a significant change to the team.
We should also take a moment to discuss the possibility of the Cubs non-tendering Bryant on December 2nd, which Mooney and Sharma said recently “probably can’t be totally dismissed out of hand because the Cubs have shown us how they are managing the downturn.” As they wrote, this would be an “embarrassment” and a “worst-case scenario.” If the Cubs exhaust all trade scenarios and don’t want to commit themselves to Bryant at around $20MM, it is an avenue they could take, however unlikely. We did just see 29 teams pass on Brad Hand at one year and $10MM. If no one is willing to take Bryant at his salary, the Cubs’ choice would come down to keeping him or cutting him. They could also consider cutting Bryant or Schwarber during Spring Training, but that would require at least 30 days termination pay and would put the player in a difficult spot.
Schwarber presents a lesser version of the same dilemma. He posted a 90 wRC+ in 224 plate appearances, but it’s not too hard to picture him returning to the 115-120 range in 2021 as a 28-year-old next year. If he does, his $7MM salary could be a bargain. He’s still more replaceable than Bryant, which is why I wouldn’t rule out a non-tender for Schwarber either if the Cubs can’t find a trade partner prior to December 2nd. I’m not optimistic about the Cubs finding a team willing to give up anything of note for a left fielder/designated hitter, particularly with Joc Pederson and Michael Brantley available in free agency and Eddie Rosario in trade (and possibly being non-tendered himself). Brantley, a much better contact hitter than Schwarber, would actually be an interesting choice to replace him for the Cubs. I’m not sure I can see the Cubs unloading Schwarber’s $7MM to potentially sign Brantley for twice as much, however.
With Baez, a contract extension could be more likely than a trade. He’s a popular, entertaining player with a desire to stay. I can see fans being disappointed if the Cubs keep Bryant and Schwarber, trade them for an uninspiring return, or non-tender them for nothing. A Baez extension could restore some goodwill. Figuring out a fair number during a pandemic for a player coming off a bad year could make an extension difficult for Baez, however. The Cubs have already extended some goodwill toward face of the franchise Anthony Rizzo, exercising his $16.5MM club option after a 103 wRC+ performance. It’s hard to picture Rizzo in any other uniform, but a new contract would have to be hammered out to retain him beyond ’21.
The Cubs have several solid building blocks in place through 2023 in Darvish, Hendricks, and Happ. They’ve got Contreras under control through ’22. All options will likely be on the table in terms of trades, and these are the players with trade value. Contreras is coming off a solid year, and getting his age 29-30 seasons would likely be appealing to the runners-up for J.T. Realmuto. Plus, Contreras won’t cost $20MM+ like Realmuto will. The Cubs could trim $7MM in payroll if they exchange Contreras for pre-arbitration players. The Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Rays, and Yankees could be interesting trade partners. If they trade Contreras, the Cubs might be content to plug in Victor Caratini as their starter behind the dish.
Similarly, the Cubs could look to get out of their commitment to Darvish with his value at a high point. They wouldn’t be able to find a Cy Young-caliber pitcher to replace him, but they could use some of the savings for veteran free agents while also bringing in quality minimum-salary players in the trade. Considering painful scenarios like these is the reality of the 2021 Cubs.
With Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood reaching free agency, the Cubs figure to import at least one starting pitcher this winter and possibly two. They’ve got Adbert Alzolay and Alec Mills slated behind Darvish and Hendricks, but the team clearly needs more. Interest in a Lester reunion is mutual, though the Cubs may seek more upside than the veteran southpaw can offer. One possible answer would be to find the pitching equivalent of Bryant or Schwarber – an arbitration eligible player with limited control coming off a down year – and broker a trade. Such a deal could be struck prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline, particularly in the case of Schwarber.
On the other hand, Epstein spoke about “thread[ing] the needle and improv[ing] in 2021 while also setting ourselves up for the long-term future,” which suggests he’d like prefer to swap contract year players for ones with multiple years of control. That makes sense in theory, but as I’ve been saying, Bryant and Schwarber don’t seem to have a lot of trade value. Look at the minimal return the Indians received for a $17.5MM Corey Kluber after a lost 2019 season. And that was with the Rangers at least having the chance to get two years of Kluber, who had an expensive option for 2021 (that was bought out due to injury). That’s why trading Contreras, Darvish, Hendricks, or Happ might be Epstein’s best way to thread the needle.
The Cubs’ bullpen is also in need of reinforcements. The pitcher they put in the highest-leverage situations, Jeremy Jeffress, is a free agent. Much has been made of Craig Kimbrel’s final 14 appearances of the season, in which he posted a 1.42 ERA with a 53.1 K%, 14.3 BB%, and no home runs allowed. The list of 60+ inning relief seasons from 2015-19 in which a pitcher walked at least 14% of batters faced runs just seven-deep: Brandon Workman, Jeurys Familia, Adam Ottavino, Steven Brault, Reyes Moronta, Carl Edwards Jr., and Kyle Barraclough. The truth is that if you issue free passes to batters at the rate Kimbrel did in the “good” portion of his 2020 season, you’re walking a tightrope that few have found sustainable.
The Cubs’ most reliable reliever might be Rowan Wick, who has strung together 50 2/3 innings of 2.66 ERA ball since joining the team in a November 2018 trade. I can picture Ryan Tepera sticking around, though he walked a career-worst 13.5% of batters faced for the Cubs this year. The Cubs’ other potential bullpen holdovers seem even more fungible. I’m not yet convinced in the Cubs’ ability to grab castoff relievers on the cheap, run them through their Pitch Lab, and create an above-average bullpen. One-year deals should abound for free agent relievers this winter, and the Cubs should set their sights higher than the scrap heap.
Epstein’s legacy in Chicago is secure, and he’s likely headed for the Hall of Fame one day. But for a big-market, high-payroll team that’s made the playoffs five times in the last six seasons, fans can’t help but feel disappointed with one championship. In positioning the 2021 Cubs for one last run, Epstein faces one of his greatest challenges.
 

beckdawg

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The Mets could go after Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor in a trade during the offseason, but the return might prove prohibitive for New York. As David Lennon of Newsday tweets, the Indians could ask for an Andres GimenezJeff McNeil tandem in trade talks. That would be a lot for the Mets, who saw Gimenez perform well as a rookie in 2020 and who have gotten tremendous production from the versatile McNeil dating back to his 2018 debut. McNeil has batted an outstanding .319/.383/.501 in 1,024 major league plate appearances, so it seems highly unlikely the Mets will part with him and Gimenez for one year of control over Lindor.

This is Happ and Nico for 1 year of Lindor.
I mean the thing you're citing says it's unlikely the mets would do that. So, why would the cubs match the offer that the mets wouldn't do?
 

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