beckdawg
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I believe you need to start the offseason with a clear goal. For me that goal would be a soft retool. After 2021 the only "bad" contract the cubs have is Heyward and if Heyward has another year like 2020, his ~$22 AAV isn't even bad. To that end, I don't want to see them entirely blow up the team. They have guys like Hendricks and Darvish who are good pieces. So, my goal for 2021 would be essentially to be fine moving down to a wild card level rather than division champs but in doing so pick up some longer term pieces and then in 2022+ you would have cleaner books for FA and additional prospects you add.
Let's start with Bryant. I'd trade him but there's more of a combo play here. The main issue here is the cubs don't have many internal answers at 3B. There's Christopher Morel but he seems more like a fringe starter prospect. There's Bote but again he seems like a low end starter. There's Baez if you wanna move him to 3B. But after that there's not much. So, trading Bryant creates a bit of a hole. What I would do in conjunction with trading Bryant is to try and acquire Nolan Arenado. Things pre-season got real nasty with him and Colorado. Colorado was also really shit with the 10th worst record in baseball. To add to matters, he hit .253/.303/.434(76 wRC+) in 2020 and is still owed 6 years $199 mil with an opt out after 2021. So the question for Coloardo is do you really want to pay him $35 mil next year to play on a crummy team and then potentially have him opt out and get nothing in return? For the cubs, the question comes mostly down to money. There's no way you pay him the roughly ~$33 mil AAV left. That's Trout/Betts type money and he's just not them. Personally I'd be comfortable in the $23-25 mil range which would mean Colorado would need to eat some where in the neighborhood of $50-60 mil over 6 years. Seems like a lot but keep in mind the Marlins ate $30 mil of Stanton's deal along with $23.7 mil in Castro's contract and Stanton's contract was about $4 mil or so less AAV.
Obviously there's a lot of moving parts there but I think it's an intriguing idea and if Colorado is willing to move him I don't think you're talking about the cubs top prospects given it would be a salary dump and given Colorado doesn't have a ton of leverage. I think Arenado also has a NTC which would make their leverage even higher since rumors were prior to the season that Arenado would like to go to the cubs. If all the parts worked out, I like the idea because Arenado gives the cubs a long term 3B answer with if nothing else a great glove and costs less than the prospects the bryant would likely return meaning the net trade would end up in favor of the cubs. Also, Arenado is a low K rate player which is something the cubs offense sorely lacked.
The next move I'd try to make may end up being more a 2022 FA move but I'd see what the Indians want for lindor. My logic here is that no one seems to know exactly why the cub offense broke but one thing we can say for certain is it looked better with fowler at the top of the line up. Lindor is probably the best lead off hitter in baseball and has a fantastic glove. The Indians are kind of in a similar situation to the cubs with Bryant. So, if you could effectively trade the quality of prospects you get for Bryant for Lindor I like that move. Granted personally I'd say Lindor is worth slightly more than Bryant in trade but I don't think it's a wide gap and the Indians have been known to go quantity over quality in recent trades.
For the Indians the move is pretty simple. They are gonna trade him it's just a matter of to who. For the cubs it answers the lead off hitter question and he's also a low k rate guy as well as being arguably the second best defensive SS in baseball and seemingly a great dude. Plus, you put Arenado's glove next to his at SS and that defense on the left side of the infield would be ridiculous. As for what you do with Baez, I mean Baez has never been my guy but I think you could really go a number of different ways. For those who love him, moving him to 2B just makes your infield defense absurd when you also add in Rizzo at 1B. The middle infield would be a better version of the defense they had with Russell and Baez. If you want to trade Baez that's also an option with bote or hoerner filling in at second.
As for the rest of the offense, I think you pick up Rizzo's option and try to work out a short term deal to keep him around. At C, I'd re-sign Contreras. My thoughts there are that Contreras had one glaring flaw coming into 2020 which was pitch framing and he ended 2020 as one of the better framers in baseball. He's got all the tools defensively now and he's shown he can be a monster bat. If he puts everything together he has the tools to be the best C in baseball. And unlike Baez/Bryant, he wasn't a high draft pick/big money IFA signing. He's more like Hendricks in that regard because I can't even find the dollar amount for his bonus so he probably wasn't over a few 100k at max and in his playing career he's only made about $6 mil.
In terms of the OF, I'd like to see them give Hoerner a longer look at CF in 2021 ST. My thought would be if the DH is still here you move Happ to LF, Heyward stays in RF and you look to DH Schwarber or you could really move around Hoerner/Happ/Schwarber to suit whatever match up a given day has. Basically, I'm more looking for a place holder in CF until Brennen Davis is ready for the majors. Obviously it isn't the most amazing OF ever but this is more in line with what I was saying about just trying to get through 2021 without cratering.
Overall, If the cubs could pull off acquiring Arenado and Lindor and assuming you have Baez at 2B that offense looks a lot more interesting to me and the infield defense would REALLY help the cubs pitching.
In terms of pitching, I don't have a ton to say. Darvish and Hendricks are a pretty solid 1/2. Mills and some combo of Cory Abbott and Tyson Miller is decent depth for your #5 starter though I would consider having an innings eater vet just in case. For the 3/4 slots I'd just hand the ball to Alzolay and Marquez. Alzolay in particular is very interesting to me. In his past 2 seasons he has 136 k's in 103 IP between 4 IP at A+, 65.1 at AAA and 33.2 in 2 seasons in MLB. That's an 11.88 k/9. For reference, Darvish's career K/9 is 11.12. Supposedly Alzolay added a new pitch during the pandemic as well. Now it wouldn't surprise me if that k rate comes down some but the fact it's this high is a really strong sign. Even if it levels out to high 9's that's a really good thing. The one area of weakness of late has been his command which is slightly odd given he had good command prior to 2019. My guess is he's just changed up his pitches some and doesn't quite have full control over them yet. As for Marquez, I mean not much really needs to be said about a lefty who throws 100 mph. Obviously there's questions about him but for me I'd just let him figure things out and take his lumps.
Lester has a $10 mil buy out for 2021. I would consider offering him a 2 year $15-20 mil deal. The idea here being you're on the hook for $10 mil regardless so he gets an extra year and the cubs get an innings eating vet for $5-10 mil over 2 years. If I'm honest, I think Lester may just be done but he's a good leader and having a lefty like him in the club house would likely help Marquez. Plus, even if you don't sign him I'd kinda like to have a vet around rather than just hoping Mills/Abott/Miller are the guy for the #5.
In terms of the bullpen, I'd dangle Kimbrel in trade offers. His first 4 outings in 2020 were shit but his next 14 he posted a 1.42 ERA with 26 k's and 7 walks over 12.2 IP. At $16 mil he's very pricey and wouldn't net much but if the cubs were to eat a fair chunk of that they might be able to get a legit prospect. And if not during the winter you might just wait until next july. Basically, if I could essentially trade Bryant and Kimbrel for prospects and use those prospects to acquire Lindor and Arenado(plus a bunch of cash) I'd probably consider that a win.
As for the rest, I'd likely just try to piece together the bullpen with a bunch of the rejects the cubs tend to sign and coach up. The bullpen isn't going to be a strong point but they've done a really good job of finding cheap guys like Jeffress off the scrap heap and adding in rule 5 type cuts such as Wick and Wieck to piece together enough of a bullpen to make due. Plus Carraway is likely your closer of the future.
Let's start with Bryant. I'd trade him but there's more of a combo play here. The main issue here is the cubs don't have many internal answers at 3B. There's Christopher Morel but he seems more like a fringe starter prospect. There's Bote but again he seems like a low end starter. There's Baez if you wanna move him to 3B. But after that there's not much. So, trading Bryant creates a bit of a hole. What I would do in conjunction with trading Bryant is to try and acquire Nolan Arenado. Things pre-season got real nasty with him and Colorado. Colorado was also really shit with the 10th worst record in baseball. To add to matters, he hit .253/.303/.434(76 wRC+) in 2020 and is still owed 6 years $199 mil with an opt out after 2021. So the question for Coloardo is do you really want to pay him $35 mil next year to play on a crummy team and then potentially have him opt out and get nothing in return? For the cubs, the question comes mostly down to money. There's no way you pay him the roughly ~$33 mil AAV left. That's Trout/Betts type money and he's just not them. Personally I'd be comfortable in the $23-25 mil range which would mean Colorado would need to eat some where in the neighborhood of $50-60 mil over 6 years. Seems like a lot but keep in mind the Marlins ate $30 mil of Stanton's deal along with $23.7 mil in Castro's contract and Stanton's contract was about $4 mil or so less AAV.
Obviously there's a lot of moving parts there but I think it's an intriguing idea and if Colorado is willing to move him I don't think you're talking about the cubs top prospects given it would be a salary dump and given Colorado doesn't have a ton of leverage. I think Arenado also has a NTC which would make their leverage even higher since rumors were prior to the season that Arenado would like to go to the cubs. If all the parts worked out, I like the idea because Arenado gives the cubs a long term 3B answer with if nothing else a great glove and costs less than the prospects the bryant would likely return meaning the net trade would end up in favor of the cubs. Also, Arenado is a low K rate player which is something the cubs offense sorely lacked.
The next move I'd try to make may end up being more a 2022 FA move but I'd see what the Indians want for lindor. My logic here is that no one seems to know exactly why the cub offense broke but one thing we can say for certain is it looked better with fowler at the top of the line up. Lindor is probably the best lead off hitter in baseball and has a fantastic glove. The Indians are kind of in a similar situation to the cubs with Bryant. So, if you could effectively trade the quality of prospects you get for Bryant for Lindor I like that move. Granted personally I'd say Lindor is worth slightly more than Bryant in trade but I don't think it's a wide gap and the Indians have been known to go quantity over quality in recent trades.
For the Indians the move is pretty simple. They are gonna trade him it's just a matter of to who. For the cubs it answers the lead off hitter question and he's also a low k rate guy as well as being arguably the second best defensive SS in baseball and seemingly a great dude. Plus, you put Arenado's glove next to his at SS and that defense on the left side of the infield would be ridiculous. As for what you do with Baez, I mean Baez has never been my guy but I think you could really go a number of different ways. For those who love him, moving him to 2B just makes your infield defense absurd when you also add in Rizzo at 1B. The middle infield would be a better version of the defense they had with Russell and Baez. If you want to trade Baez that's also an option with bote or hoerner filling in at second.
As for the rest of the offense, I think you pick up Rizzo's option and try to work out a short term deal to keep him around. At C, I'd re-sign Contreras. My thoughts there are that Contreras had one glaring flaw coming into 2020 which was pitch framing and he ended 2020 as one of the better framers in baseball. He's got all the tools defensively now and he's shown he can be a monster bat. If he puts everything together he has the tools to be the best C in baseball. And unlike Baez/Bryant, he wasn't a high draft pick/big money IFA signing. He's more like Hendricks in that regard because I can't even find the dollar amount for his bonus so he probably wasn't over a few 100k at max and in his playing career he's only made about $6 mil.
In terms of the OF, I'd like to see them give Hoerner a longer look at CF in 2021 ST. My thought would be if the DH is still here you move Happ to LF, Heyward stays in RF and you look to DH Schwarber or you could really move around Hoerner/Happ/Schwarber to suit whatever match up a given day has. Basically, I'm more looking for a place holder in CF until Brennen Davis is ready for the majors. Obviously it isn't the most amazing OF ever but this is more in line with what I was saying about just trying to get through 2021 without cratering.
Overall, If the cubs could pull off acquiring Arenado and Lindor and assuming you have Baez at 2B that offense looks a lot more interesting to me and the infield defense would REALLY help the cubs pitching.
In terms of pitching, I don't have a ton to say. Darvish and Hendricks are a pretty solid 1/2. Mills and some combo of Cory Abbott and Tyson Miller is decent depth for your #5 starter though I would consider having an innings eater vet just in case. For the 3/4 slots I'd just hand the ball to Alzolay and Marquez. Alzolay in particular is very interesting to me. In his past 2 seasons he has 136 k's in 103 IP between 4 IP at A+, 65.1 at AAA and 33.2 in 2 seasons in MLB. That's an 11.88 k/9. For reference, Darvish's career K/9 is 11.12. Supposedly Alzolay added a new pitch during the pandemic as well. Now it wouldn't surprise me if that k rate comes down some but the fact it's this high is a really strong sign. Even if it levels out to high 9's that's a really good thing. The one area of weakness of late has been his command which is slightly odd given he had good command prior to 2019. My guess is he's just changed up his pitches some and doesn't quite have full control over them yet. As for Marquez, I mean not much really needs to be said about a lefty who throws 100 mph. Obviously there's questions about him but for me I'd just let him figure things out and take his lumps.
Lester has a $10 mil buy out for 2021. I would consider offering him a 2 year $15-20 mil deal. The idea here being you're on the hook for $10 mil regardless so he gets an extra year and the cubs get an innings eating vet for $5-10 mil over 2 years. If I'm honest, I think Lester may just be done but he's a good leader and having a lefty like him in the club house would likely help Marquez. Plus, even if you don't sign him I'd kinda like to have a vet around rather than just hoping Mills/Abott/Miller are the guy for the #5.
In terms of the bullpen, I'd dangle Kimbrel in trade offers. His first 4 outings in 2020 were shit but his next 14 he posted a 1.42 ERA with 26 k's and 7 walks over 12.2 IP. At $16 mil he's very pricey and wouldn't net much but if the cubs were to eat a fair chunk of that they might be able to get a legit prospect. And if not during the winter you might just wait until next july. Basically, if I could essentially trade Bryant and Kimbrel for prospects and use those prospects to acquire Lindor and Arenado(plus a bunch of cash) I'd probably consider that a win.
As for the rest, I'd likely just try to piece together the bullpen with a bunch of the rejects the cubs tend to sign and coach up. The bullpen isn't going to be a strong point but they've done a really good job of finding cheap guys like Jeffress off the scrap heap and adding in rule 5 type cuts such as Wick and Wieck to piece together enough of a bullpen to make due. Plus Carraway is likely your closer of the future.