How much longer can we keep running Heyward out there

knoxville7

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He’s going to keep getting play to some degree. He did have his best hitting season as a cub last year, so we have to hope he turns it around some
 

CSF77

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He’s going to keep getting play to some degree. He did have his best hitting season as a cub last year, so we have to hope he turns it around some
last year: 131 wRC+ 2nd best year.

.311 BABIP

This year 58 wRC+
.198 BABIP all time low. His career avg is .296

Infield flyball% 24.2% About 2x's of his career avg. He is getting under the ball alot.
Groundball 50%
33% flyball rate. 12% of those go for HR's.

He has gone pull happy. 53% That has cut into his Opposite field hits, This shift started last year and has continued into this year.

So the main differences from 2020-2021:

Line drives have dropped by 10%. That 10% has gone to pop ups. IE he is getting under the ball vs squaring it up.
Soft contact rates up by 16%, Which also goes into getting under the ball and losing line drives to pop ups.
 

CSF77

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1st AB worked the pitcher for 8 pitches. ground out.
2nd AB line drive single.

So if he goes up there battling and tries to drive the ball good things should happen. His BABIP is not sustainable.
 

CSF77

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went down and got a single off of a sinker. Laid off a curve up and a 4 down and in.

If he keeps this up he should get his BA above .200 fast. Last game he had 3 walks. So his eye has improved sense returning from the DL.
 

CSF77

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and the pop up.

But up to 61 wRC+ Today he had a 183. Not a bad day at all.
 

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Heyward is listed at 6'5 240 but has as much pop in his bat as light hitting Albert Almora. Btw, Almora is a 6th overall bust of a pick and probably won't set foot in the majors after this year. He's having a brutal season with the Mets.

Patrick Wisdom was drafted the same year Almora was!

 
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CSF77

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Heyward is listed at 6'5 240 but has as much pop in his bat as light hitting Albert Almora. Btw, Almora is a 6th overall bust of a pick and probably won't set foot in the majors after this year. He's having a brutal season with the Mets.

Patrick Wisdom was drafted the same year Almora was!


I wanted Fried that draft. Cubs would have had that ace that they were missing.

The only draft that they hit on was with Bryant. The rest were wasted opertunites.
 

knoxville7

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I wanted Fried that draft. Cubs would have had that ace that they were missing.

The only draft that they hit on was with Bryant. The rest were wasted opertunites.

id say they hit on schwarber. Without that draft pick, the cubs likely don’t win the WS in 2016
 

knoxville7

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Baez played a pretty big role too. Was he the last draft before them? They've done a good job in IFA as well

yeah, Baez was a hendry pick. But yeah, they’ve hit on guys like soler, cease, eloy, and Torres that were all traded for pieces to compete for and win a world series. Another questionable csf take to act like the front office doesn’t know how to draft
 

Bust

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id say they hit on schwarber. Without that draft pick, the cubs likely don’t win the WS in 2016

Addison Russell so underrated that year. Besides playing stellar shortstop, he came out of nowhere and drove in 95 rbi's, third most on the team and also finished 3rd best on the team in homeruns.

In the playoff run he lead the team in rbi's with 9.

 

CSF77

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id say they hit on schwarber. Without that draft pick, the cubs likely don’t win the WS in 2016
2014
#7 Aaron Nola
#10 Michael Conforto
#13 Trea Turner

2012
#7 Max Fried
#11 Addi Russell
#16 Lucas Giolito
#18 Cory Seager
#19 Michael Wacha
#22 Marcus Stroman
(This draft was idiotic how bad they missed)

2015
#24 Walker Buehler. But many passed on him.
Over all Happ was a decent pick in a weak draft.

2016 Could have gotten Shane Bieber vs Thomas Hatch. That is a dice roll and Cleveland has a solid program for developing pitching. Cubs did not.

2018 They got it right with Hoerner.

So 2 drafts that they hit right, 2012 they could have gotten Fried. 2014 Nola. But Theo always went safe and went after the bat and passed on 2 aces. 3 -4 if you have a crystal ball or good pitching development plans that know talent like LAD and Cle.
 

CSF77

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yeah, Baez was a hendry pick. But yeah, they’ve hit on guys like soler, cease, eloy, and Torres that were all traded for pieces to compete for and win a world series. Another questionable csf take to act like the front office doesn’t know how to draft

They play it safe. They pass on quality pitching. And they didn't know how to develop any.

Theo ran a office full of statheads that knew metrics. Most never played.

The results speak for them selves. Alozay was the first Cub SP to wear a uni. He was not drafted. He was a international pick. Marquez was a international pick.

So via the draft it has been a flame out until this year. And that is after the recent overhaul. But that is 2012-2020 wasted. 8 years of developmental time down the shitter.

So yes they sucked at 'Drafting' talent. They passed on pitchers that are staff aces now.

Hopefully Jed doesn't stick to the game plan and go little league this year.
 

knoxville7

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And how many pitching busts did Theo avoid with that same method? You can’t criticize him for missing out on guys without giving credit to all the ones that he avoided that ended up hurt. That was the whole premise of his operation…you draft hitting and buy pitching, because hitters are easier to project out success on. They don’t have the career ending injuries that pitching arms do. Yes, this leads the organization to miss out on some gems, but it insulates it from the risk and dangers of betting big on drafting pitching that gets hurt and sets back your organization 5+ years
 

CSF77

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And how many pitching busts did Theo avoid with that same method? You can’t criticize him for missing out on guys without giving credit to all the ones that he avoided that ended up hurt. That was the whole premise of his operation…you draft hitting and buy pitching, because hitters are easier to project out success on. They don’t have the career ending injuries that pitching arms do. Yes, this leads the organization to miss out on some gems, but it insulates it from the risk and dangers of betting big on drafting pitching that gets hurt and sets back your organization 5+ years

Yet again. Theo had the same formula. Draft College hitter. Then draft high floor pitchers.

Every pick was pretty safe.

Even when Gray was available he went Bryant. That one won. The next year he went with the #16 on the board to cut costs. That whole draft was a draft manipulation to over slot Cease. Waste of time. He could have just signed Nola vs playing the game.

You have to ask yourself. Why did LA hit on Walker? Because they have a long history of success in developing pitching. That starts in scouting and continues until they pitch at the major league level. Cleveland has self produced aces for a while now. Yet again another one picked in round 3.

So when you have a history of success it is not a crap shoot. It means that they know what the fuck they are doing from the begining to the end of a players process from amateur to paid professional to vet status.

The Cubs just are getting to the point of taking what they have and turning them into serviceable players. We are seeing the results in Steel (had TJS) Thomas and Alzolay. They got Maples to find the plate. That is a miracle indeed. They have taken cast offs like Nance and Weick and turned them into quality players.

Now they need to take the next step and draft high ceiling pitchers. Fuck the high floor guys. They are limited. They need to target more guys like Cease now. Fill the system with plus arms so when one flames out or is traded it doesn't end the world. Shoot LAD and Cle just another link in the talent chain.
 

CSF77

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When you miss on pitching year after year it is on the system. It was broken.

You fix the system first.

Then you insert talent.

The Cubs need to self develop or they will continue being a underachiever. Over paying for Q or past their prime or rolling the dice on another Chatwood.

Shit is a joke. There is no reason why 8 years past and they held a 0% success rate. That means your shit is broke.
 

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2014
#7 Aaron Nola
#10 Michael Conforto
#13 Trea Turner

2012
#7 Max Fried
#11 Addi Russell
#16 Lucas Giolito
#18 Cory Seager
#19 Michael Wacha
#22 Marcus Stroman
(This draft was idiotic how bad they missed)

2015
#24 Walker Buehler. But many passed on him.
Over all Happ was a decent pick in a weak draft.

2016 Could have gotten Shane Bieber vs Thomas Hatch. That is a dice roll and Cleveland has a solid program for developing pitching. Cubs did not.

2018 They got it right with Hoerner.

So 2 drafts that they hit right, 2012 they could have gotten Fried. 2014 Nola. But Theo always went safe and went after the bat and passed on 2 aces. 3 -4 if you have a crystal ball or good pitching development plans that know talent like LAD and Cle.

Epstein was always "mo bats" and pay for pitching. Can't hate on that.
He got a championship and did not leave behind a mess.
And look at the Cubs now. It looks promising.
 

CSF77

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Epstein was always "mo bats" and pay for pitching. Can't hate on that.
He got a championship and did not leave behind a mess.
And look at the Cubs now. It looks promising.

He Left behind 2 starters with 3 openings.
He unloaded a #1 farm system to sustain a run. All for pitching that he was not producing himself.

Sustained success means winning. It also means self production so they don't have to be co-dependent on trades and free agents.

The plan of signing a front line every 3 years was the right move. That way there is always a 1-2 SP and then the previous ace would slide back to middle relief. The problem was it should have been Lester then Yu with the rest self sustained.

So the biggest problem in this vision that Theo had was he did not follow through and made decisions that failed to win a ring and lost on long term talent for short term talent. Which is exactly the opposite of his mantra.

I'm not saying that he should go pitching every draft. But he should take the best talent at that pick. If it is a SS so be it. But don't pass on a high ceiling pitcher because you suck at development. Become strong at pitching development and just do it. Risk is part of the business. Drafting safe picks will make a system full of 40-50 talent really lacking anything of impact.

Marquez-International high ceiling pitcher.
Davis-2nd round high ceiling hitter.
Amaya-International high ceiling catcher.

There is a trend here to continue. The draft shouldn't be just filler players for the system and the international the high talented. That is shutting the door to a potential wealth of talent.
 

knoxville7

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It has nothing to do with sucking at development. It has to do with risk
 

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