How the Bears can make the playoffs with a 9-7 record, for the eternal optimists

Toast88

Well-known member
8,683
7,050
70
Count me among the people who think the Bears have no real shot at making the playoffs, but I do love a good breakdown.

When discussing the Bears' slim playoff chances this week, it's often started with the Bears winning out. Makes sense, that would be the easiest way for them to get in and would really only require the Vikings to lose one of their three games before Week 17, which actually seems likely. What doesn't seem likely is the Bears going 4-0 the last four games.

But believe it or not, the Bears will still be alive in the playoff hunt if they lose tonight, or if they *only* go 3-1 down the stretch.

Let's go through what has to happen for the Bears to make the playoffs with a 9-7 record:

-Bears have to win 3 of their last 4, including the finale against the Vikings.
-The Vikings have to lose 2 of the following 3 games heading into the finale: vs. Lions; @ Chargers; vs. Packers
-The Rams have to lose 3 of their last 4 games: vs. Seahawks; @ Cowboys; @ 49ers; vs. Cardinals

or

-Bears win 3 of their last 4, but lose to the Vikings in the finale, but it doesn't matter because the Vikings already lost 2 of the 3 games going into the finale and the Rams lost 3 of 4.


Now let's get crazy. Here's what has to happen for the Bears to make the playoffs with an 8-8 record:

-Bears win 2 of their last 4, including the finale in Minnesota.
-Vikings lose their last 4 games.
-Rams lose their last 4 games, or 3 of their last 4, if the one they win is the finale against Arizona. (This would create a 3-way-tie for the last slot, which the Bears would win the tiebreaker for.)
 
Last edited:

mecha

Well-known member
7,572
4,557
70
I could see the Vikings and Rams losing those games. what I don't see is the Bears taking care of their own business.

they're perennial fuckups in this regard. you all know I'm right too.
 

xvflutop

Member
53
74
12
-Rams lose their last 4 games, or 3 of their last 4, if the one they win is the finale against Arizona. (This would create a 3-way-tie for the last slot, which the Bears would win the tiebreaker for.)
I thought the Rams hold the tie breaker over the bears becsuse of their head to head match up win
 

Jack Lantern

Well-known member
2,575
1,910
70
9-7 won't do it. Bears have lost pretty much all the head to head tiebreakers this year vs potential 9-7 teams. Losing winnable games vs the Eagles and Rams will do them in.

10-6 or go home
 

Armyhawk

The why’s
Donator
1,658
2,025
70
Fun to think about. I have a feeling the season ends tonight.

I’m such an optimist being a Chicago sports fan
 

Jack Lantern

Well-known member
2,575
1,910
70
Yep, season will end tonight if they lose. Cowboys are yet another potential wildcard team and losing to the Cowboys, Rams and Eagles when they are the biggest threat for end of season wildcard slots

Game over
 

greg23

Well-known member
4,895
2,845
70
9-7 won't do it. Bears have lost pretty much all the head to head tiebreakers this year vs potential 9-7 teams. Losing winnable games vs the Eagles and Rams will do them in.

10-6 or go home

Reading comprehension is a good thing.

9-7 bears vs 9-7 queens
Bears win

9-7 bears, queens, lambs (with right lambs lone win)
Bears win
 

Toast88

Well-known member
8,683
7,050
70
I thought the Rams hold the tie breaker over the bears becsuse of their head to head match up win

Bears win 3-way tie between them, Rams and Vikings because the Bears have the best in-conference record.
 

Bearly

Dissed membered
Donator
30,609
14,763
135
My favorite teams
  1. Chicago Cubs
  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Chicago Blackhawks
I predicted the Bear would be 10-6, maybe 9-7 before the season started. And that they would need 10 games and to beat the other in division wild card contender head to head to make the playoffs. I don't think we get there but there's hope until it's taken away.
 

xvflutop

Member
53
74
12
Bears win 3-way tie between them, Rams and Vikings because the Bears have the best in-conference record.
According to NFL.com:
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
  1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
  2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Division tiebreaker would eliminate the Vikings. Then the Rams hold the head to head vs the bears.

Two Clubs
  1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
*edit to add the two team scenario
 

Top