How the Masahiro Tanaka Non-Posting Could Affect the Cubs

[waldo7239117]

http://www.chicitysports.com/2013/1...bs/?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

 

[SilenceS]

I truly believe that even if he is posted. The cubs won't win the bidding war. I see nothing that says they are willing to shell out a serious contract. You are looking at tying up a lot of money in Jackson and tanaka and neither one of them are aces.

 

[CSF77]

If he doesn't post and they decide to stick in house I'm expecting a win total in the 50's this year.

 

[waldo7239117]

I truly believe that even if he is posted. The cubs won't win the bidding war. I see nothing that says they are willing to shell out a serious contract. You are looking at tying up a lot of money in Jackson and tanaka and neither one of them are aces.

In reality, Jackson isn't making a lot of money and is making the right amount of money. He's making the same amount as injury-prone players. 11 million a year isn't bad.

 

[waldo7239117]

If he doesn't post and they decide to stick in house I'm expecting a win total in the 50's this year.

I do think their whole-off-season revolves around him and the delay has hurt the Cubs this Winter.

 

[beckdawg]

I truly believe that even if he is posted. The cubs won't win the bidding war. I see nothing that says they are willing to shell out a serious contract. You are looking at tying up a lot of money in Jackson and tanaka and neither one of them are aces.

The other aspect is in the next 2-3 years the cubs will have a lot of cheap pitching from all the guys they've drafted in rounds 2+. So, let's call Tanaka a #2 and Jackson a #4. You then have Wood who'll need to be re-signed soonish as a probable #3 and Pierce Johnson who should probably be a #3. You then have Arrieta/Blackburn/someone else as your potential 5. You would have maybe $20 mil tied up in Tanaka, $11 mil in Jackson and worst case $15 mil in wood with the other two positions making near league min So let's call that $4 mil ish. You're talking about $50 mil for 5 pitchers. Even if you go crazy on someone like Kershaw if he hits the market for $30 mil/year you're talking about $76 mil + the min of someone like Blackburn or Johnson. That's still only around $15 mil per pitcher.

When you consider the cubs will have cheap hitters for some time assuming their top prospects aren't all terrible that isn't that unreasonable.

 

[Shawon0Meter]

I don't believe the Cubs would be willing to pay the money to get Tanaka so I don't think it affects them that way. It does affect how a few teams waiting around for Tanaka might feel about Samardzija though.

 

[Boobaby1]

I don't believe the Cubs would be willing to pay the money to get Tanaka so I don't think it affects them that way. It does affect how a few teams waiting around for Tanaka might feel about Samardzija though.

If the Cubs can pay 18 million for Zambrano to play for another team, and 19 million for Soriano to play for another team the following year and a half, then they should have no problem paying 20 plus million for a pitcher to be in the rotation for 6-7 years f he is posted.

And you know, 20 millionish will be low in terms of salary in 6-7 years from now anyways.

 

[waldo7239117]

I don't believe the Cubs would be willing to pay the money to get Tanaka so I don't think it affects them that way. It does affect how a few teams waiting around for Tanaka might feel about Samardzija though.

Yes, that's one point I brought up and why Samardzija hasn't been traded yet.

 

[beckdawg]

If the Cubs can pay 18 million for Zambrano to play for another team, and 19 million for Soriano to play for another team the following year and a half, then they should have no problem paying 20 plus million for a pitcher to be in the rotation for 6-7 years f he is posted.

And you know, 20 millionish will be low in terms of salary in 6-7 years from now anyways.

IIRC they only payed $15 mil to Miami for big Z but I think your point is still valid. I just really don't see what they are going to do if they don't get Tanaka. They have roughly $40 mil in salary difference from the past 2 years. Cynics would say Ricketts just will want to pocket that but if that were the case why did they stay that high in the past 2 years where they arguably had less reason to spend money? Presumably they have saved $40 mil for some reason and with most of the top FAs gone you have to believe that is for Tanaka.

 

[SilenceS]

IIRC they only payed $15 mil to Miami for big Z but I think your point is still valid. I just really don't see what they are going to do if they don't get Tanaka. They have roughly $40 mil in salary difference from the past 2 years. Cynics would say Ricketts just will want to pocket that but if that were the case why did they stay that high in the past 2 years where they arguably had less reason to spend money? Presumably they have saved $40 mil for some reason and with most of the top FAs gone you have to believe that is for Tanaka.

They thought they could catch lighting in the bottle more the past two years. This year they know that's not happening. Jackson was a knee jerk reaction to Sanchez. Theo has admitted this. Also, people are really going over board on this whole prospect thing. The cubs aren't going to put 9 in house players out there and 5 in house pitchers. Shit getting cray cray with that. Oh and unless Jackson bounces back. The cubs are over paying. 4 years 52 million for right now a 5 is a lot. Tanaka is also an anamoly. You could be paying over 100 million for a league average pitcher. It's risky and I don't think the cubs take the risk with that much money out up.

 

[beckdawg]

They thought they could catch lighting in the bottle more the past two years. This year they know that's not happening. Jackson was a knee jerk reaction to Sanchez. Theo has admitted this. Also, people are really going over board on this whole prospect thing. The cubs aren't going to put 9 in house players out there and 5 in house pitchers. Shit getting cray cray with that. Oh and unless Jackson bounces back. The cubs are over paying. 4 years 52 million for right now a 5 is a lot. Tanaka is also an anamoly. You could be paying over 100 million for a league average pitcher. It's risky and I don't think the cubs take the risk with that much money out up.

I don't see how I'm going over board on prospects. Rizzo and Castro are still going to be cheap. That's a fact because even as they increase they are still only making $5 mil. Castillo is also cheap. That's 3 of of your starting 8 offensive players. Then let's say 2 of the big 4 pan out. That gives you 5 cheap guys and if you manage to pull anything out of the 5-15ish prospects that's maybe 1-2 more. Not even saying they have to be stars but if you can get a below average-average guy out of 5-15 you can field an extremely cheap offense. Even if you only get the 5 cheap guys you're only having to hit FA for 3 more. Depending on how they want to allocate their money and extending someone like say Castillo, you could be looking at maybe $35 mil toward hitters. For example, they currently have $12.14 mil toward Castro and Rizzo in 2015. Castillo will be Arb 1 eligible so even if they re-sign him it will be cheap because they would be buying out 3 arbitration years. Baez, Bryant and Almora will all be making league min. Soler makes $2.667 mil. So, if you get 5 positional players out of those guys you're looking at maybe $15 mil

As for pitching, I agree you're not finding all in house options for all 5 slots.... which was sort of my point. Because they can field a cheaper offensive team they can afford to spend on pitching in FA but they should also get the benefit of cheaper back of the rotation starters. For example Johnson and Blackburn aren't likely to be TOR starters but if they can provide decent pitching as say a #3 and a #4/5 that's 2 cheaper pitcher allowing you to dump more money into your #1/2's via FA presumably.

 

[SilenceS]

I don't see how I'm going over board on prospects. Rizzo and Castro are still going to be cheap. That's a fact because even as they increase they are still only making $5 mil. Castillo is also cheap. That's 3 of of your starting 8 offensive players. Then let's say 2 of the big 4 pan out. That gives you 5 cheap guys and if you manage to pull anything out of the 5-15ish prospects that's maybe 1-2 more. Not even saying they have to be stars but if you can get a below average-average guy out of 5-15 you can field an extremely cheap offense. Even if you only get the 5 cheap guys you're only having to hit FA for 3 more. Depending on how they want to allocate their money and extending someone like say Castillo, you could be looking at maybe $35 mil toward hitters. For example, they currently have $12.14 mil toward Castro and Rizzo in 2015. Castillo will be Arb 1 eligible so even if they re-sign him it will be cheap because they would be buying out 3 arbitration years. Baez, Bryant and Almora will all be making league min. Soler makes $2.667 mil. So, if you get 5 positional players out of those guys you're looking at maybe $15 mil

As for pitching, I agree you're not finding all in house options for all 5 slots.... which was sort of my point. Because they can field a cheaper offensive team they can afford to spend on pitching in FA but they should also get the benefit of cheaper back of the rotation starters. For example Johnson and Blackburn aren't likely to be TOR starters but if they can provide decent pitching as say a #3 and a #4/5 that's 2 cheaper pitcher allowing you to dump more money into your #1/2's via FA presumably.

We would be lucky if 3 of our top 10 become average to above average starters in this league. Even our big 4 have holes that they have to progress through to become above average major leaguers. Baez is boom or bust. Bryant has more middle ground but could easily be average with the swing and miss to his approach. Almora does not walk well. Soler is probably overall the best approach to stay consistent but he has to come back from injury and show a more level head while playing. Then it becomes a crap shoot. Alcantara got decently exposed in the second half of AA. He struck out a good bit. Volgy will always battle weight issues. The pitchers are nothing special but the cubs could catch a break with a guy like Naples or Edwards. Both have stellar stuff but have concerns. I'm still not hugely sold on rizzo. His approach at the plate left a lot to be desired. Castro has to get his head back into the game and just play the game. I like Castillo but catcher is a Jekyll and Hyde position in the majors. I also believe that ricketts has no intentions of dropping big money until 2020. Your assumptions could be right but the cubs would basically have to hit the lottery for that to pan out. I follow the minors a lot and they all have talent but one little flaw in your game can bust you out the majors. Until they prove it against mlb pitching. I can not go on the assumption that the cubs can field that type of team.

 

[beckdawg]

Your assumptions could be right but the cubs would basically have to hit the lottery for that to pan out. I follow the minors a lot and they all have talent but one little flaw in your game can bust you out the majors. Until they prove it against mlb pitching. I can not go on the assumption that the cubs can field that type of team.

I would say I'm far more realistic than "hitting the lottery." Historically, 60% of the top 20 baseball america hitters have panned out(1.5+ WAR on average). The top 4 cubs are probably all top 35. So suggesting that 2 of the big 4 pan out is far from unrealistic. What you should expect is 2.5 or so. As for the 5-15 guys, those would be more luck based. The cubs have also drafted 22 pitchers in the top 15 rounds the past 2 years. To suggest they can't find 2 starters out of 22 pitchers seems rather unrealistic to me. I'm not saying they will be top of the rotation types but 3-5 starters? That also doesn't account for whatever they get/have got via trades and this coming draft.

Also, I'm not even suggesting any of these guys will be superstars/allstars. All I'm saying is you should expect to get at least that many average-slightly above players.

 

[SilenceS]

I would say I'm far more realistic than "hitting the lottery." Historically, 60% of the top 20 baseball america hitters have panned out(1.5+ WAR on average). The top 4 cubs are probably all top 35. So suggesting that 2 of the big 4 pan out is far from unrealistic. What you should expect is 2.5 or so. As for the 5-15 guys, those would be more luck based. The cubs have also drafted 22 pitchers in the top 15 rounds the past 2 years. To suggest they can't find 2 starters out of 22 pitchers seems rather unrealistic to me. I'm not saying they will be top of the rotation types but 3-5 starters? That also doesn't account for whatever they get/have got via trades and this coming draft.

Also, I'm not even suggesting any of these guys will be superstars/allstars. All I'm saying is you should expect to get at least that many average-slightly above players.

Did you just read your post and call me unrealistic? Lol

 

[beckdawg]

Did you just read your post and call me unrealistic? Lol

Where did I call you unrealistic? I said it was unrealistic that they couldn't find 2 back of the rotation starters out of 22 picks from rounds 2-15 in the past 2 drafts plus major trades of Garza, Dempster and probably shark not to mention next years draft. Regardless, the facts remain that what I've suggested is realistic. Perhaps it's optimistic but it is in no way "winning the lottery" as you suggest. Winning the lottery would be for all 4 of the big 4 to become impact players along with several of the pitching prospects to turn out to be top of the rotation players. I'm suggesting that a team with a top 5 farm system will have cheap talent in the next 3-5 years. Why is that unrealistic? I didn't say they would be amazing players. The Royals had "the best farm system ever" a few years back and had many players fail. But that doesn't change the fact that their team is still very cheap because of it.

 

[Boobaby1]

Where did I call you unrealistic? I said it was unrealistic that they couldn't find 2 back of the rotation starters out of 22 picks from rounds 2-15 in the past 2 drafts plus major trades of Garza, Dempster and probably shark not to mention next years draft. Regardless, the facts remain that what I've suggested is realistic. Perhaps it's optimistic but it is in no way "winning the lottery" as you suggest. Winning the lottery would be for all 4 of the big 4 to become impact players along with several of the pitching prospects to turn out to be top of the rotation players. I'm suggesting that a team with a top 5 farm system will have cheap talent in the next 3-5 years. Why is that unrealistic? I didn't say they would be amazing players. The Royals had "the best farm system ever" a few years back and had many players fail. But that doesn't change the fact that their team is still very cheap because of it.

How about the Cubs signing Tanaka if posted, and then looking at a potential core of players to pick from in Baez, Tanaka, Wood, Castillo, Shark, Bryant, Rizzo, Castro, Hendricks, Johnson, Almora, Soler, Edwards, Blackburn, Black, Viscaino, Alcantara, Villanueva, and Vogelbach as examples to choose from and/or trade for top tier talent.

I'll take it without looking back. opcorn:

 

[HurricaneDij39]

Tired of this on-again/off-again nonsense. Either post him or don't so we could move forward.

 

[TL1961]

If the Cubs can pay 18 million for Zambrano to play for another team, and 19 million for Soriano to play for another team the following year and a half, then they should have no problem paying 20 plus million for a pitcher to be in the rotation for 6-7 years f he is posted.

And you know, 20 millionish will be low in terms of salary in 6-7 years from now anyways.

I have argued this same thing - salaries only go up. However, I first argued it in favor of signing Kevin brown, who never did anything after signing that last big contract. And with guaranteed contracts, it's always a little scary to commit $140 to a pitcher who can get hurt at any time. (But then again, Tommy John surgery saves them all)

 

[chibears55]

besides already having Rizzo, castro, and Castillo on the major league roster, barring any significant injuries they will definitely allow baez, Bryant, soler, and almora to get at least 2 full seasons to show that they belong once they arrive.. I think those four are their prize prospects and will be given every opportunity to succeed.

so, its not a reach that we may see 6-8 players from their system barring injuries or trade playing together everyday in a couple years..