How to win free agency? Don't play: SI article

[policeman]

Nice article by Peter King- the bit about the Ravens and their comp picks is interesting (inside the link). Here's the first few paragraphs to wet your beak

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/03/17/2015-nfl-free-agency-compensatory-picks/

How To Win Free Agency: Don’t Play

Think spending big will lead to winning big? Ask the 2011 Eagles—or any number of teams that dished out major dollars in recent years—how that worked out. And a look at one franchise that might have figured out how to make free agency work: Don't participate, and watch the draft picks roll in

In the summer of 2011, the NFL was just back from a player lockout, and the Philadelphia Eagles attacked free agency unlike any other team in the league. Though they’d made the playoffs two straight years, the Eagles viewed having cap room—while so many other teams were snug up against the league’s $120-million cap—as a chance to acquire top talent at Walmart prices.

Michael Vick was re-signed to a back-loaded five-year, $80 million deal to be the quarterback of the future—and Vince Young was imported to back him up. Ronnie Brown was signed to buttress the running game, and Steve Smith (the younger) got signed away from the rival Giants to be another receiving target for Vick. Pass-rusher Jason Babin was signed, as were Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha, forming what was seen as one of the best pass-coverage units in the league.

“The cap for the rest of us is $120 million,” one GM said to me on my trip to NFL training camps that summer. “It feels like it’s $220 million for them.”
As we all know, the spree was part of the Eagles’ downfall that led to Andy Reid’s firing and Chip Kelly’s hiring. More significantly for football, it showed that even the smart teams sometimes get seduced by the siren song of free agency. That’s what free agency is: a drug. It looks like a legitimate quick fix, but there are very few quick fixes in football. Who’d have thought Asomugha would tank, Vick would backslide significantly, and the Dream Team class (Vince Young’s words) would fail?

“As our experience shows,” former Eagles president Joe Banner said Monday, “there are lots of unknowns in free agency. They’re not your own players, and you don’t really know them the way you know your own guys. My advice now is, Proceed with caution. It’s a total crapshoot.”
JOE BANNER ON CHIP KELLY
Which bodes ill for this year’s wild spenders—the Jets, Eagles (again), Dolphins, Jaguars and Titans—as we reach the end of free agency’s first week. Hold onto your calculators. Each of those five teams, according to published contract figures, has committed more than $100 million to free agents. On average, those five teams have spent $134 million on new contracts for unrestricted players on the market.It’s an annual rite of spring—or of late winter: NFL teams trip all over themselves spending money on free agents. They do it even though, year after year, mounting evidence suggests (no, proves) that the free spending doesn’t result in more wins. It’s indisputable. With the exception of the occasional legitimate star player with good years left—Julius Peppers to Chicago in 2010, Peyton Manning to Denver in 2012, Mario Williams to Buffalo in 2012—going nuts in free agency has proved to be a negative in recent years.

This is not going to be a survey of every free-agent signing in the 22-year history of the system, since Reggie White took $17 million from Green Bay to leave Philadelphia in 1993. It’s more anecdotal. But the anecdotes shout.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

It is fine to sign players but you got to do it smart.

When Devon House is getting 6 million a year when he has basically been a backup CB, you know that is a mistake.

 

[fatbeard]

Wait wait wait, you're saying it's not an optimal strategy to massively overpay for marginal talent like Ron Parker in a desperate attempt to fix every single hole in an offseason?

 

[JoJoBoxer]

There is strength in numbers. As Jimmy Johnson used to say, having more draft picks is insurance against mistakes—because no matter how good a personnel man you are, you’re going to blow some picks.

That Jimmy Johnson seems to use the "throwing shit at a wall" method.

Seems he knows more the Ommy.

 

[Pegger]

Love how they referenced the Philidelphia 'Dream Team' as an example of what not to do. Such a horrible season that still leaves me shaking my head.

I think in the pre salary cap NFL era you could rely on your draft and the ability to develop players more. Currently GMs and coaches have a 2-3 year window to show improvement and if that doesn't happen they are shipped out.

I do agree that FAs are still unknowns. You don't know how they will fit from a culture stance or if their strengths in a different system will map over to what you do, but I'd counter that by saying they are less of an unknown than any draft pick. You have some tape of them against NFL competition to project what their strengths could be.

At the end of the day any new GM/coach is coming in because the team is falling short of expectations. If some of that failure is linked to the roster then it's up to them to make changes based on the opportunities available.

 

[BearsFan51]

And yet the Packers were desperate to find a RB fix their offensive line and they're still looking for a complimentary pass rusher and secondary help.

If they had even a marginal secondary they'd probably have three rings for Rodgers by now. Instead they've become a predictable season storyline win the NFC North and go one and done in the playoffs.

 

[Escobar's Army]

Stay out of FA unless there is a true difference maker available. Also they need to be young.

 

[PolarBear]

Good strategy really. Unless there is a truly elite player who is still in their prime, don't spend big.

Don't overpay player's who have good contract years, take the compensatory picks.

 

[Run the ball]

The key thing about receiving picks is letting go of decent players who sign big enough contracts. The Bears don't draft well enough to take advantage of this strategy.

 

[r1terrell23]

Seattle- Lynch, Harvin, Bennett, Avril, Graham

Broncos- Peyton, Welker, Sanders, Ware, Ward, Talib, Champ

Pats- Welker, Moss, Blount, Talib, Revis, McCourty, Ninkovich, Seau, Harrison

I don't think teams should just drop dough but I wont act like it can't help either. Look at our Bears

2001- Traylor, Big Ted, Miller

2006- Jones, Moose, Tait, Brown, Clark, Ogun,

 

[remydat]

It's not about FA or the draft. It's about making smart decisions no matter the path you take to build your team.

 

[MurrDogg34]

Seattle- Lynch, Harvin, Bennett, Avril, Graham

Broncos- Peyton, Welker, Sanders, Ware, Ward, Talib, Champ

Pats- Welker, Moss, Blount, Talib, Revis, McCourty, Ninkovich, Seau, Harrison

I don't think teams should just drop dough but I wont act like it can't help either. Look at our Bears

2001- Traylor, Big Ted, Miller

2006- Jones, Moose, Tait, Brown, Clark, Ogun,

Ogun was a trade. Booker.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

Ask the 2011 Eagles—or any number of teams that dished out major dollars in recent years—how that worked out.

I asked the Pats how it has worked out for them and they said "Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrreat!!!"

 

[BearsFan51]

It's not about FA or the draft. It's about making smart decisions no matter the path you take to build your team.

It's about finding a god damn quarterback.

 

[Smokey Robinson]

I don't think it is so black and white. Obviously overpaying for average players will get you in trouble but paying for players on the rise or true difference makers is needed. The Patriots proved last year you can spend big in FA and it will pay dividends provided the money is put into the right places.

 

[The Hawk]

Somehow I think that Chip Kelly is way ahead of the rest of the league in his vision. I may be wrong.

 

[WindyCity]

We get it, draft well.

Too bad the Bears have been fucking terrible at the draft for about a decade.

Better suck for a decade and stockpile picks.

 

[number51]

So the Ravens are the model on how to win FA? Don't play. There are other teams always in the playoffs that do it different.


The real secret, get a QB. After that everything else magically falls into place. Unless you're Atlanta.

 

[botfly10]

Stay out of FA unless there is a true difference maker available. Also they need to be young.

You got it backwards. Avoid young proven studs. You can only afford those when they come through the draft. Stay away from the Suh's unless its going to put your team over the top. A team's top talent has to come through the draft. Its the only way they will afford it.

You want to use FA to create depth and competition by targeting the middle tiers. And you hope you get one or 2 guys still developing that can go on to become a reliable starter. Think Tim Jennings when the Bears signed him from the Colts.

 

[botfly10]

The reason teams have to build through the draft is because the salary cap. In order to retain veteran talent, a team has to have a significant portion of its roster on rookie contracts. Its especially important that you have a good proportion of starters on rookie contracts. This goes double for blue chip players. A team can only have 2-3 blue chip players on veteran contracts. It is essential that you are bringing in other top caliber players on rookie contracts. All cause the cap.