I'm scared, is anyone esle

[jsain360]

I'm afraid that the the basketball romantics that is the Bulls' front office will not make a move at the trade deadline to clear cap space for 2010, my fear is Salmons and Kirk will be on the roster at the end of the season.

 

[RC_Skinny22]

As for Kirk I hope so.

But Salmons should be traded. I think it´s easier to find a club who is interested in him than in Hinrich.

The problem I have with Salmons is that he plays way too slow. He holds the ball in his hands too much without moving. This kills our offense and I hate to see that as much as I hate to see shooting Miller that often from outside of the zone.

 

[TheStig]

If your scared, go buy a dog.

I think the bulls have somethings lined up and are holding on to the deadline to see if anything better comes along. I think they know they can't sit idle and already have Salmons replacement.

 

[B1LLIONAIREKR3W]

trade Salmons

 

[JimmyBulls]

I'm sure the Bulls would love to trade Salmons without a doubt, and Hinrich if they had to, but I don't think a deal will be made at the deadline. With teams looking to cut salary or bid for a 2010 free agent, why should they take Hinrich's bad contract or trade valuable expring contracts for players that are not performing up to expectations? I don't think a team in the East is going to give up expirings just to let the Bulls go bid for a big time free agent. But on the flip side, Hinrich and Salmons are not playing well enough to be considered a potential difference maker for a team looking to make the playoffs or advance deep in the West.

It sucks, but I think both players will be in a Bulls uniform when the deadline passes.

 

[clonetrooper264]

I'm going to say that nothing will happen and hope I'm wrong.

 

[Shakes]

We'll have max cap space whether a trade goes down or not, unless you're scared Salmon's agent is so dumb as to tell him to not opt out and cost him millions of dollars.

 

[TheStig]

Shakes wrote:

We'll have max cap space whether a trade goes down or not, unless you're scared Salmon's agent is so dumb as to tell him to not opt out and cost him millions of dollars.

I don't see it costing him millions. I would say he is worth a max of 3/10 now. Old swing players like him typically get what devin brown got. Salmons isn't going to find a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

 

[Shakes]

TheStig wrote:

Shakes wrote:

We'll have max cap space whether a trade goes down or not, unless you're scared Salmon's agent is so dumb as to tell him to not opt out and cost him millions of dollars.

I don't see it costing him millions. I would say he is worth a max of 3/10 now. Old swing players like him typically get what devin brown got. Salmons isn't going to find a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

I think he can get 3 years at around the MLE, perhaps even a longer deal if he has a good playoff series. The guy I look at as a reasonable benchmark is James Posey: he was a year older when he got 4 years at the MLE. Maybe it's a bias against the guy from when he was on the Heat, but I'd take Salmons over Posey.

Besides the thing working in Salmon's favour is that teams that have cap space have to spend it on someone. This FA is pretty thin after the obvious stars. What swingmen who are going to be FA are better pick ups than Salmons? Obviously LeBron, Wade & Joe Johnson. Maybe Ray Allen or Manu, although I'd be scared the way they both seem to have fallen off a cliff, and they probably want more money. Salmons might not be that great, but he's shooting the three at a decent clip again this year, and there's always a market for guys who can do that.

 

[TheStig]

Posey was a benchmark during a good economy on a rising team who desperatly needed someone to defend on the perimeter, aka the right place at the right time. Posey was on a decline and shouldn't have gotten that deal, now he is a terrible contract. Furthermore, Salmons isn't coming off being a key contributor off of championship teams two out of the last three years and isn't a shut down defender. NO thought he was going to put them over the top. Its clear Salmons isn't a starter on most contending teams. You are really exaggerating his value. Especially since wings value nose dive after 30. I see him making about half as much this year if he opts out.

We can debate that but no one is going to overpay Salmons in loom of a lock out that will see salaries slip. If it does happen, it will be a contender that desperately needs bench scoring but its doubtful they would pay the mle when they will have much cheaper options.

 

[Shakes]

The down economy means nothing when you also have a dozen or so teams with at least some cap space. After LeBron, Wade and Bosh are gone (and if they stay put, they wont even have eaten up anyone's cap space), teams are going to spending their space on somebody, and Salmons is going to be one of those somebodies.

Everyone always talks about how so many guys are overpaid ... I think you're overestimating what the MLE buys. For the MLE you can usually get a player who can defend and hit a few shots, either as a 4th option sort of starter or a 6th man ... which is basically what Salmons is. I'm not over-valuing Salmons, I'm valuing him according to what the market has historically been.

You look at other 30ish swingmen who've put up similar numbers to Salmons (ie 12-13 points a game and around 40% from 3) in recent years and you see a lot of guys on MLE type deals: eg Battier, Raja Bell, Stackhouse, Artest, Nocioni.

 

[TheStig]

Sure it does. All of those teams are going after marketable players. Max deal players like Bron and Wade are actually value contracts since they preform much greater than their salary when you compare them in terms of production to lower level players. So I don't see what your argument is. The team that signs Bron for 18 mill is gonna make more than they spend on him in jersey, ticket and merchandise sales. No one is coming to a game to see Salmons come off the bench.

MLE gets you some good guys. A MLE player should be a starter on your team. 6th man is rare unless they are a really good sixth man. Salmons just isn't on that level and has only been there twice in his career. He is a nice player to have but given production and salary, I'd take Devin Brown every time if I had a choice.

None of those guys(except artest) where 30 when they signed their deals. Plus all of them (except Stackhouse) where at least a notch or two higher defensively when they got their deals. Artest is a dpoy player. They are all much better defensively.. Salmons compares much more to the devin browns of the world.

He just isn't going to get that great of a deal. He's realistically got about another 3 years left in the league and no one is going to be paying him 7 mill per in that last year as you have them doing. If he could have opted out last year after being an 18ppg scorer I would have said he would have gotten the full mle but thats just not the case anymore.

 

[Shakes]

It doesn't really matter if Salmons is a good defender or not, he has a reputation of being a good defender (come on, surely we've been over this ground in the BG threads about how often it's mentioned about Salmons improving our defense to compensate for BG). I mean you're using Noc's reputation as a good defender when he's not to justify him getting a contract, I think the same goes for Salmons.

The MLE will go down a bit with the cap, so a 3 year MLE deal is about 3/18. If a team gets Salmons for significantly less than that I'd be shocked. If he could have opted out after scoring 18PPG then he'd have gotten more. There's not a 18PPG scorer in the league who got a contract for 6 million a year (outside of the guys on rookie contracts).

I also think you vastly overrate what you can get for the MLE. The majority of MLE signings end up being deals the team signing them regrets. There was an article I can't find right now that analysed production vs salary of non-rookie contracts and found there was a huge dip right at the MLE level. The MLE typically goes to guys who aren't worth it but get bid up to that level because any team can pay it.

I mean Jerome James, Radmanovic, Olawakandi, Jeffries, Cardinal, Udrih, Tim Thomas, Kapono, etc etc etc. There's always some dumb team that will pay. It doesn't matter what Salmons is worth, it's the NBA, he'll get paid.

 

[TheStig]

It did among dillusional people who thought no one under 6'6 could guard a sg and low and behold kirk is our best defender. All the guys minus stack (who got more than the mle) were much better defenders and regaarded as top notch defenders. Noc was really highly regarded before he got his deal. The guy was playing great, he just sucked afterward and tried to hard but he was still much more highly regarded than Salmons. All the guys were also under 30 which makes a big difference.

Sure there are, Mike James got an MLE deal after putting up 18ppg. Artest got his deal after putting up good numbers and Noc was putting up good scoring numbers in low minutes right before he got his deal. I'm sure there are others I'm forgetting.

The MLE when used wisely gets teams good solid guys that aren't over their prime or allstars after their prime. You listed some bad examples and all of those guys were signed young or after huge years. Salmons is neither. Not to mention that most of them are bigs. Bigs get overpaid.

I just can't see Salmons getting that type of deal in this economy, as old as he is and showing a decline. It looks like a lock out is coming and unless your a star, your just not going to get a good deal this summer.

 

[Shakes]

Well time will prove one of us wrong so we'll wait and see.

What doesn't change is even if he gets 3/10 it's still better than getting 1/5.8 then a very real possibility nothing afterwards (year older, less teams with cap space, the prospect of a new CBA will be very real by then). So I still think he's a lock to opt out, given that even if he can't get the kind of deal I think he can, if he gets the kind of deal you think he can he's still ahead.

 

[TheStig]

We will. I mean things can change, like if he gets dealt to Boston and plays a huge role like he did when PP is out, he will get money. I just can't see anyone giving that time of deal with his current role.

Nah, I disagree, he is better with 1/5.8. He will fairly easily get 2-3 mill a year afterward. I don't see his value changing that much. I think he easily gets a devin brown deal after next year. I wouldn't doubt if he got offereed a 3/10 after next year. Its not a lot of money for a contender.

 

[Shakes]

He wouldn't be getting 2-3 million if he stays with the Bulls next year if I was running the show. I'd make sure to put his value in the crapper if he didn't opt out.

I expect if he's here after the deadline we'll have a quiet word to his agent that he can expect to only see the court during garbage time next year if he stays with the Bulls. Basically we'd make it known that if he doesn't help us by opting out we're going to return the favor.

 

[TheStig]

Man am I glad your not the GM. Thats wrong on so many levels, not only is he a contributing piece to the team that is the exact wrong thing to do and will turn off fas big time. Who wants to go to a team that strong arms players into contract decisions. Its already bad enough we try to stong arm them in negotiations. Looks like it won't come to it anyway, the bulls are actively trying to deal him and/or kirk.

 

[jsain360]

Get rid of Hinrich