IST: Cubs at Pirates

[zack54attack]

4 big games in Pittsburgh...

 

[zack54attack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1308144278913380365

 

[CSF77]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1308144278913380365

This really makes me feel that Alzolay will end up as a pen arm or traded. They really are not committed on him at this point.

 

[TL1961]

This really makes me feel that Alzolay will end up as a pen arm or traded. They really are not committed on him at this point.

There's less than a week left this season. Don't jump to any conclusions. They will need arms next year and won't be in a hurry to discard him. He was recalled today, btw.

 

[zack54attack]

Bryant just can’t stay healthy

 

[zack54attack]

Great response from Schwarber there.

 

[zack54attack]

Whew. Needed that.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Really hope to get the Cardinals in the WC round.

 

[CSF77]

There's less than a week left this season. Don't jump to any conclusions. They will need arms next year and won't be in a hurry to discard him. He was recalled today, btw.

Happened after I posted. Most likely going to be used to extend Q's start. Pretty much a piggyback game.

09/21/20	Chicago Cubs recalled RHP Adbert Alzolay from Cubs Alternate Training Site.
09/21/20	Chicago Cubs placed 2B Ildemaro Vargas on the 10-day injured list retroactive to September 20, 2020. Right hamstring strain.
09/20/20	Chicago Cubs recalled 1B Jose Martinez from Cubs Alternate Training Site.
09/20/20	Chicago Cubs optioned LHP Josh Osich to Cubs Alternate Training Site.
09/19/20	Chicago Cubs placed RHP Rowan Wick on the 10-day injured list retroactive to September 17, 2020. Left oblique strain.

My feeling is that they offer Jon 5 mil after the 10 mil buy out and he takes it.

So it would be Yu, Kyle, Jon and Alec. They would want a legit SP. To add to it Theo has said that his philosophy was to make a rotation investment every 3 years. This would be the year.



Starting Pitchers

Brett Anderson (33)
Chase Anderson (33) – $9.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Chris Archer (32) – $11MM club option with a $250K buyout
Jake Arrieta (35)
Homer Bailey (35)
Trevor Bauer (30) will be a 1 year deal
Trevor Cahill (33)
Jhoulys Chacin (33)
Tyler Chatwood (31)
Anthony DeSclafani (31)
Mike Fiers (36)
Kevin Gausman (30)
Gio Gonzalez (35) — $7MM club option with a $500K buyout
Cole Hamels (37)
J.A. Happ (38) — $17MM vesting option
Rich Hill (41)
Merrill Kelly (32) — $4.25MM club option with a $500K buyout
Corey Kluber (35) — $17.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Mike Leake (33) — $18MM mutual option with a $5MM buyout
Wade LeBlanc (36)
Jon Lester (37) — $25MM mutual/vesting option with a $10MM buyout
Tommy Milone (34)
Mike Minor (33)
Matt Moore (32)
Charlie Morton (37) — $15MM vesting option
Jimmy Nelson (32) — $2MM club option (can become $9MM mutual option based on innings total)
Ivan Nova (34)
Jake Odorizzi (31)
James Paxton (32)
Martin Perez (30) — $6.25MM club option with a $500K buyout
Rick Porcello (32)
Jose Quintana (32)
Robbie Ray (29)
Garrett Richards (33)
Tyson Ross (34)
Jeff Samardzija (36)
Anibal Sanchez (37) — $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Matt Shoemaker (34)
Drew Smyly (32)
Marcus Stroman (30)
Masahiro Tanaka (32)
Julio Teheran (30)
Michael Wacha (29)
Adam Wainwright (39)
Taijuan Walker (28)
Alex Wood (30)
Jordan Zimmermann (35)

Bold is solid targets.
I see Jon going 1 year and Marquez taking over for him.
Alzolay I just see as a BP arm. They can max out his talent better like they are doing with Underwood.

Bauer should be the #1 F/A (I see him taking the CY). The 1 year will be a no.

Alex Wood (30) makes sense for a 6 year deal. Vet lefty. Being on the 60 day might end up a pass though.
Stroman took the year off. He has been a on 1 off 1 guy. I'm not sure on the investment here.
Jake Odorizzi (31) is a solid investment.

My heart says Ray though.
This year you can really write off in general. Up to then he has been a solid LHSP and would not be a bad investment.

 

[CSF77]

Bryant just can’t stay healthy

There has been little difference between him and Bote this year.

 

[PickSix]

Lester has made a bazillion dollars in his career. He will likely have three options assuming the Cubs decline his final year:
1) Ride off into the sunset with a $10 M going away gift.
2) Strap it up for another year with the dear ole Cubbies for $15 M. This assumes the offer above is made by the Cubs.
3) Decline the Cub offer and see if a legit contender wants a number 5 for somewhere north of $10 M.
Seems to me that option 2) is the least likely to happen.

 

[CSF77]

Lester has made a bazillion dollars in his career. He will likely have three options assuming the Cubs decline his final year:
1) Ride off into the sunset with a $10 M going away gift.
2) Strap it up for another year with the dear ole Cubbies for $15 M. This assumes the offer above is made by the Cubs.
3) Decline the Cub offer and see if a legit contender wants a number 5 for somewhere north of $10 M.
Seems to me that option 2) is the least likely to happen.

10 buy out and a 5 mil 1 year offer would be the best scenario. That way he could end up working with David Ross as a coach later. It is a natural fit. 2021 to me would be about getting Marquez ready for the show and letting Jon help him transition to a MLB starting pitcher. He has the talent but will need the experience.

So ya it feels like a worthy investment. The question is if Jon wants to finish off going for a ring or helping in a transition.

 

[CSF77]

Date	Transaction
09/22/20	Chicago Cubs optioned LHP Rex Brothers to Cubs Alternate Training Site.
09/22/20	Chicago Cubs activated LHP Jose Quintana from the 10-day injured list.

 

[TL1961]

Lester has made a bazillion dollars in his career. He will likely have three options assuming the Cubs decline his final year:
1) Ride off into the sunset with a $10 M going away gift.
2) Strap it up for another year with the dear ole Cubbies for $15 M. This assumes the offer above is made by the Cubs.
3) Decline the Cub offer and see if a legit contender wants a number 5 for somewhere north of $10 M.
Seems to me that option 2) is the least likely to happen.

He is certainly not retiring, so if #1 means that, it is not an option. If it means ride somewhere else, it's the same as Option #3.

I would expect Option 2 is the preferred option for Lester if the Cubs want to do that. But that's the big question. Even if they decide it's time to go with younger starters, having a vet like Lester around at a low / reasonable price seems like a very viable option.

 

[PickSix]

Well, you guys seem to actually know his intentions. Just saying if it were me and I’ve made more money than my offspring could ever spend and faced with:
1) Hang it up and walk away with $10M next year.
2) Strap it up and go through the rigors of another year and make a total of $15M with a team that isn’t a serious contender.
3) Go play for a legit contender and bring home $20+ M ($10 from Cubs and $10+ from new team as a bottom of rotation guy).
I’d probably go option 3,1,2. It’s not like the HOF is in reach. The only reason to strap it up at this point is to chase a title or make boat loads more money. An extra $5M is anything but boat loads with what he has accumulated.

 

[zack54attack]

Rizzo!

 

[CSF77]

He is certainly not retiring, so if #1 means that, it is not an option. If it means ride somewhere else, it's the same as Option #3.

I would expect Option 2 is the preferred option for Lester if the Cubs want to do that. But that's the big question. Even if they decide it's time to go with younger starters, having a vet like Lester around at a low / reasonable price seems like a very viable option.

I agree with you. Marquez should be ready mid season and with injury you really expect a opening for him to slot in.

Alzolay did decent today but I really see it as a choice between him or Mills. Not both.

Again the best scenario is Jon doing a 5 mil and taking Marquez under his wing. This helps Jon with a potential coaching gig.

All I see as a hang up is if he wants another ring. He has 2 so I really don't see this as the primary motivation for him. Working with David and running a staff. That to me seems the more interesting motivation.

But they most likely will invest into the rotation. They need a. Well a Ted Lilly type. Robbie Ray IMO should be the top target and coming off a bad season should drive down his market.

 

[CSF77]

As far as the game goes. In on a loss. Doesn't bode well.

 

[CSF77]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1308606558293680129

 

[PickSix]

This team hits like a bunch of defensive minded catchers.