IST: Cubs at Pirates

wonky73

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Baez with 3 ks...
Like good ol sexy rexy and the f it I'm going deep, the cubs lineup attitude is f it I'm swining for a homer on every pitch.

I know the problem.. it must be the hitting coach.. let's get a new one.. that will solve everything.
 

knoxville7

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Darvish had a great covid shortened season last year but he was far from what you make him out to be during his time with the Cubs. Looking over his career stats, he's only had one season where he hit 200 innings pitched, ouch


so 200 innings is your barometer of if a pitcher is good or not? This isn’t the 1960’s anymore. Not a ton of guys log 200 innings anymore in general
 

CSF77

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well according to CSF, 2020 is a year we are supposed to just throw out...and that was Davies best year. Take that year away and his career era is right at 4. That’s nothing special really, and certainly is nowhere near darvish level production. Which, is what he and others were saying...that the drop off from darvish to Davies would be minimal, and I’m not agreeing with that at all

It was a throw away year. He is a 3.87 ERA pitcher. Petco suppresses runs so I take a small sample size like 2020 with a grain of salt. Just like 1 game.

Players will gravitate to their mean and that means one game will be great and the other not so much and then there is a avg game.

The better the pitcher the less blips.

Pitchers will go in with no command. Jake had shit command but he was better at limiting the damage.

Like I said. It is not really about the good games. It is about the bad games and how well they can prevent big innings.

I'm not impressed with the last two games. Bad games happen. 10 hits in 3 and a third. That tells me that he was tipping or everything was garbage and the sweepers were busy.
 

CSF77

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so 200 innings is your barometer of if a pitcher is good or not? This isn’t the 1960’s anymore. Not a ton of guys log 200 innings anymore in general


His run started after the ASG 2019 and continued through a short season. It means nothing if he struggles this year.

To be frank I don't care about what they got. They had better in hand. They picked up another after better than Howard at SS. So they got some depth for future trades vs cornerstone players.

I see that trade as a salary dump nothing more or less. They pay Davies and trade him also and lose the long term commit.
 

knoxville7

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His run started after the ASG 2019 and continued through a short season. It means nothing if he struggles this year.

To be frank I don't care about what they got. They had better in hand. They picked up another after better than Howard at SS. So they got some depth for future trades vs cornerstone players.

I see that trade as a salary dump nothing more or less. They pay Davies and trade him also and lose the long term commit.

if he pitches like garbage, they won’t be able to trade him for much of anything...
 

Bust

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so 200 innings is your barometer of if a pitcher is good or not? This isn’t the 1960’s anymore. Not a ton of guys log 200 innings anymore in general

Lol. Darvish is an injury waiting to happen. Cubs did right by selling.
 

Bust

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Baez with 3 ks...
Like good ol sexy rexy and the f it I'm going deep, the cubs lineup attitude is f it I'm swining for a homer on every pitch.

I know the problem.. it must be the hitting coach.. let's get a new one.. that will solve everything.

Much of the cubs core on last year deals. This could be a complete wipe when it's all said and done.
 

knoxville7

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Lol. Darvish is an injury waiting to happen. Cubs did right by selling.

i never said it wasn’t the right decision to sell. I said that people on here were claiming going from darvish to Davies wouldn’t be much of a drop off...and that is simply not the case
 

SilenceS

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so you’re telling me Davies will bounce back and have a solid overall year?
I know yall been going back and forth. Is Davies a Darvish? Not at all, but he is Hendricks like if he doesnt have pin point accuracy. He going to be smashed. What I didnt like was the game plan didnt change and they were just sitting on the changeup. I feel like that is something Ross should have handled. Bad starts happen but no gameplan was changed. I know this isnt what you going with him about. Just actually trying to have discussion.
 

beckdawg

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i never said it wasn’t the right decision to sell. I said that people on here were claiming going from darvish to Davies wouldn’t be much of a drop off...and that is simply not the case
I mean... Darvish is sitting with a 4.22 ERA and a 4.98 FIP. Davies ERA is obviously going to be huge after yesterday but his FIP is sitting at 5.51. The argument here is clearly it's early and you'd expect more out of Darvish. Sure, but that same logic also applies to Davies. Davies is sitting with a 7.36 bb/9 for a guy who's career walk rate is 2.67. That isn't sustainable. His 8.59 k/9 is actually not bad all things considered and his 1.23 hr/9 is kinda average but certainly not what's wrong with him. It's the walks 100%.

As this pertains to darvish, what would scare the crap out of me if I were a SD fan is his 2.53 HR/9. His 10.97 k/9 and 1.69 bb/9 are basically in line with 2020. The difference is his HR/9 in 2020 was 0.59. Now you can say that's just noise in the data and over time it'll go down. Sure that could happen. But Darvish's HR/9 the two years prior to 2020 were 1.58 and 1.66. And the 2 games Darvish pitched were in PETCO which plays about 4% lower than league average in home run rate.

The concern here isn't that Darvish will stay at 2.53 HR/9. Shocker, he wont. The concern is that if 2020 was an outlier and he goes back to 2019's 1.66 HR/9 then you're talking about a very different pitcher than #2 in cy young 2020 Darvish. That season he had a 3.98 ERA and 4.18 FIP. His k rate throughout his career has largely been consistent. His walk rate has bounced around a bunch. It was 2.82 in 2019. I think it's fair to argue that is high just based on his last 15 or so starts.

So maybe you argue he's more like mid 3 ERA at an elevated HR/9 vs 2020. I think all things considered that's probably a fair estimate and maybe a bit optimistic because it assumes his walk rate stays consistent and his HR rate doesn't get worse but none the less, if you're talking about a mid 3 ERA pitcher that's good to have and valuable for SD but it's not an otherworldly piece you can't get rid of.

Davies has a career 3.87 ERA and 4.20 FIP. That's 125 starts and nearly 700 innings worth of data. It's pretty safe to assume Davies will be within that realm of quality. I can only speak for myself here but you get me 4 interesting prospects and Davies career average vs a hypothetical mid 3 Darvish, I'm taking the prospects and Davies. I mean yeah a guy with nearly a 4 career ERA is gonna have games like yesterday where he blows up. But people seem to forget that 2018 and 2019 Darvish posted 4.95 and 3.98 ERA's. It's very possible Darvish has his own set of issues.
 

beckdawg

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Oh one other thing... that elevated HR rate for Darvish is in a season where they changed the balls to lower HR rate. League wide thus far the HR/9 is 1.19. In 2020 it was 1.34. In 2019 it was 1.40. So, again I'd be concerned he's giving up so many homers this early were I a SD fan
 

hankchifan

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Chicago Cubs (3-3) at Pittsburgh Pirates (1-5)


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AT
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Pitching Matchups


Game 1 — Thursday, April 8 (12:35p.m.)

Jake Arrieta (1-0, 1.50 ERA, 5K, 1BB) vs. Tyler Anderson (0-1, 5.40 ERA, 7K, 2 BB)

Game 2 — Saturday, April 10 (5:35 p.m.)

Zach Davies (1-0, 3.18 ERA, 5K, 3BB) vs. Mitch Keller (0-1, 9.00 ERA, 4K, 4BB)

Game 3 — Sunday, April 11 (12:05 p.m.)

Trevor Williams (1-0, 3.00 ERA, 6K, 2BB) vs. JT Brubaker (0-0, 2.25 ERA, 6K, 4BB)

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Main problem this weekend against the Pirates was the starting pitching of Daviesand Williams. They really stunk up the place. For a big market team, the starting rotation is mediocre at best. Not wanting to pay Darvish and trading him looks like a small market team move.
 

Bust

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Main problem this weekend against the Pirates was the starting pitching of Daviesand Williams. They really stunk up the place. For a big market team, the starting rotation is mediocre at best. Not wanting to pay Darvish and trading him looks like a small market team move.

Why is it mediocre tho? I mean if you gonna go that route then the main problem is Theo's front office has never developed a starter thru their farm system. That's why they had to overpay and go after scrubs like Quintana.
 
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knoxville7

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I mean... Darvish is sitting with a 4.22 ERA and a 4.98 FIP. Davies ERA is obviously going to be huge after yesterday but his FIP is sitting at 5.51. The argument here is clearly it's early and you'd expect more out of Darvish. Sure, but that same logic also applies to Davies. Davies is sitting with a 7.36 bb/9 for a guy who's career walk rate is 2.67. That isn't sustainable. His 8.59 k/9 is actually not bad all things considered and his 1.23 hr/9 is kinda average but certainly not what's wrong with him. It's the walks 100%.

As this pertains to darvish, what would scare the crap out of me if I were a SD fan is his 2.53 HR/9. His 10.97 k/9 and 1.69 bb/9 are basically in line with 2020. The difference is his HR/9 in 2020 was 0.59. Now you can say that's just noise in the data and over time it'll go down. Sure that could happen. But Darvish's HR/9 the two years prior to 2020 were 1.58 and 1.66. And the 2 games Darvish pitched were in PETCO which plays about 4% lower than league average in home run rate.

The concern here isn't that Darvish will stay at 2.53 HR/9. Shocker, he wont. The concern is that if 2020 was an outlier and he goes back to 2019's 1.66 HR/9 then you're talking about a very different pitcher than #2 in cy young 2020 Darvish. That season he had a 3.98 ERA and 4.18 FIP. His k rate throughout his career has largely been consistent. His walk rate has bounced around a bunch. It was 2.82 in 2019. I think it's fair to argue that is high just based on his last 15 or so starts.

So maybe you argue he's more like mid 3 ERA at an elevated HR/9 vs 2020. I think all things considered that's probably a fair estimate and maybe a bit optimistic because it assumes his walk rate stays consistent and his HR rate doesn't get worse but none the less, if you're talking about a mid 3 ERA pitcher that's good to have and valuable for SD but it's not an otherworldly piece you can't get rid of.

Davies has a career 3.87 ERA and 4.20 FIP. That's 125 starts and nearly 700 innings worth of data. It's pretty safe to assume Davies will be within that realm of quality. I can only speak for myself here but you get me 4 interesting prospects and Davies career average vs a hypothetical mid 3 Darvish, I'm taking the prospects and Davies. I mean yeah a guy with nearly a 4 career ERA is gonna have games like yesterday where he blows up. But people seem to forget that 2018 and 2019 Darvish posted 4.95 and 3.98 ERA's. It's very possible Darvish has his own set of issues.

I understand all of those numbers. My issue is you’re basically taking worst case scenario for darvish and best case scenario for Davies in this scenario. Whereas, it’s more likely you end up with darvish not in a best or worst case scenario and the same for Davies.

by end of the year I expect darvish to be in the 3.25-3.50 ERA range, and Davies to be in the 4.25 ERA area. And to me, that’s a pretty vast difference between the two production wise.

now, you’re talking about Davies and 4 prospects = Darvish...and that I actually agree with. I’m not salty about the trade at all, it did make sense for where the cubs are right now. I’m simply stating that the drop off from darvish to Davies is more than what some on here(you included I do believe) were trying to posture
 

CSF77

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Darvish is a TOR.
Davies is a 4 or a 5.

I'll disagree with the prospects part because none were top 10 quality on the Cubs much less a stronger Padres system.

That trade was bad at the time and will continue to be bad. Jed just took some mid range filler for a TOR just because Tom was freeking out about another season with no fans and flipping the bill again.

That is why Jed got steamrolled on that trade. The backlash forced Tom to open his pockets and Jed targeted Jake to cool off the fan base.

Tom has done some good things sense he took over but he should sell the team to a group that wants to win vs be profitable.

The team should sell near 5 bil and that is one hell of a turnover.
 

beckdawg

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I understand all of those numbers. My issue is you’re basically taking worst case scenario for darvish and best case scenario for Davies in this scenario.
Not really. If anything it's the opposite case that people are viewing Darvish solely through a 2020 lens and not really taking into account a larger swath of his recent history. If you go back and look at 2018 through present day he has pitched 53 starts and 305.1 innings with a 3.63/3.81 ERA/FIP. I literally said I thought he'd be a mid 3 ERA guy. I think you can fairly argue he's probably more on the lower side of 3.5 than 3.63 but my point is more I think he's closer to 3.5 than 3.

If you look at Davies over that same time frame, he's pitched 58 starts of 302.1 innings with a 3.81/4.39 ERA/FIP. In other words, over basically the same amount of starts/innings, the two are separated by .17 in actual ERA. FIP sees the gap a bit bigger at around .57 but FIP is always going to like a high k rate pitcher than Davies and for what it's worth Davies has out pitched his FIP for his career by about 1/3 a run.

Now I'm solely having this conversation on the above because I think it's really all I need to prove my point. However, you can strongly make the case that Davies will be better than the age 25-27 version of himself going forward as he adjusts to the league where as Darvish at age 34 is going to start to slow down.

Point here is there's a lot of angles you can come at this from. But if you use actual observed data from 2018 through the present they aren't really different. So, in order to viably make that claim you have to more heavily weight Darvish's 2020 performance rather than 2018 and 2019. And if you're going to do that, you have to reconcile the fact he posted a 8.8% HR/FB compared to 17.5%/22.8% in 2019/20 and his career rate is also higher at 13.7%. You also have to reconcile the fact that from the little data we have his HR/FB is 20.0% in 2021.

Unsurprisingly, when Darvish gives up home runs he's not been good. And there's lots of reason to believe that lowered home run rate in 2020 was a fluke. If that's the case then you can't expect similar results and as I pointed out above, if he's closer to his last 53 starts rather than his last years worth the difference between him and davies last 58 starts is insignificant
 

CSF77

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Not really. If anything it's the opposite case that people are viewing Darvish solely through a 2020 lens and not really taking into account a larger swath of his recent history. If you go back and look at 2018 through present day he has pitched 53 starts and 305.1 innings with a 3.63/3.81 ERA/FIP. I literally said I thought he'd be a mid 3 ERA guy. I think you can fairly argue he's probably more on the lower side of 3.5 than 3.63 but my point is more I think he's closer to 3.5 than 3.

If you look at Davies over that same time frame, he's pitched 58 starts of 302.1 innings with a 3.81/4.39 ERA/FIP. In other words, over basically the same amount of starts/innings, the two are separated by .17 in actual ERA. FIP sees the gap a bit bigger at around .57 but FIP is always going to like a high k rate pitcher than Davies and for what it's worth Davies has out pitched his FIP for his career by about 1/3 a run.

Now I'm solely having this conversation on the above because I think it's really all I need to prove my point. However, you can strongly make the case that Davies will be better than the age 25-27 version of himself going forward as he adjusts to the league where as Darvish at age 34 is going to start to slow down.

Point here is there's a lot of angles you can come at this from. But if you use actual observed data from 2018 through the present they aren't really different. So, in order to viably make that claim you have to more heavily weight Darvish's 2020 performance rather than 2018 and 2019. And if you're going to do that, you have to reconcile the fact he posted a 8.8% HR/FB compared to 17.5%/22.8% in 2019/20 and his career rate is also higher at 13.7%. You also have to reconcile the fact that from the little data we have his HR/FB is 20.0% in 2021.

Unsurprisingly, when Darvish gives up home runs he's not been good. And there's lots of reason to believe that lowered home run rate in 2020 was a fluke. If that's the case then you can't expect similar results and as I pointed out above, if he's closer to his last 53 starts rather than his last years worth the difference between him and davies last 58 starts is insignificant

It is a pointless argument.

Darvish had 3 years of control tied to him. Davies 1 year of control. Value wise you were selling the #2 in the cy-young at that time. Then you add Caratini to the deal.

So Darvish= Davies + 1 grade 50 prospect + 1 grade 45 prospect.
Caratini = 2 grade 45 prospects.

Your argument is Darvish is equal to Davies so the 2 prospects bought the 2 years of control in value?

That is a great argument from the Padres point of view to get that return.

I see it simply as Tom wanted to lower payroll. Jed couldn't trade Heyward so he traded the guy that he could and took far less that market value.

Value is at that moment. Bauer got paid off of the moment. Not over a time frame issue. Sure you can look over a time frame and see IP avg a d injury trends but you pay the current value not last year's value.


So if Bauer gets 34 M and Yu is getting paid 22 it seems like a pretty decent price tag for the Padres and they are not locked into the deal too long.

I was expecting Ryan Weather's as a center piece. Cubs needed pitching. He is a 55 grade prospect.

That should have been in reach for Jed. But no he filled up more on what he already had because that is all that he knows. This was about dropping payroll pure and simple.

Don't try to make this argument into anything else.

If you want to say Davies might end up a 4.00 ERA pitcher that is fine.

Darvish ends up at 3.50 that is fine.

It changes nothing in value at the point of the sale.
 

beckdawg

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It is a pointless argument.

Darvish had 3 years of control tied to him. Davies 1 year of control. Value wise you were selling the #2 in the cy-young at that time. Then you add Caratini to the deal.

So Darvish= Davies + 1 grade 50 prospect + 1 grade 45 prospect.
Caratini = 2 grade 45 prospects.

Your argument is Darvish is equal to Davies so the 2 prospects bought the 2 years of control in value?

That is a great argument from the Padres point of view to get that return.

I see it simply as Tom wanted to lower payroll. Jed couldn't trade Heyward so he traded the guy that he could and took far less that market value.

Value is at that moment. Bauer got paid off of the moment. Not over a time frame issue. Sure you can look over a time frame and see IP avg a d injury trends but you pay the current value not last year's value.


So if Bauer gets 34 M and Yu is getting paid 22 it seems like a pretty decent price tag for the Padres and they are not locked into the deal too long.

I was expecting Ryan Weather's as a center piece. Cubs needed pitching. He is a 55 grade prospect.

That should have been in reach for Jed. But no he filled up more on what he already had because that is all that he knows. This was about dropping payroll pure and simple.

Don't try to make this argument into anything else.

If you want to say Davies might end up a 4.00 ERA pitcher that is fine.

Darvish ends up at 3.50 that is fine.

It changes nothing in value at the point of the sale.
I'm not sure what you're going on about here... My point is from the cubs perspective the drop off in what they would actually get in 2021 isn't that significant. I couldn't really care less about the trade discussion. My point is talking about how the trade impacts 2021 which is to say it really doesn't. If you say Darvish is a mid 3 ERA which again I think is very reasonable given the data I've already provided multiple times here and like wise if you think Davies is close to a 4 ERA pitcher the difference in on the field performance equates to least than 1 fWAR. So, literally the only way it matters if is the cubs finish 1 game out of the playoffs or if they make the playoffs and you want to discuss having a higher caliber arm there.

However, I don't think the cubs even make the playoffs without adding Joc and they aren't adding Joc unless they save the $13 mil in contract difference between Davies and Darvish. Hell the cubs might not even make the playoffs *with* Joc so I can't imagine how bad they may have been with whatever bargain bin replacement they would have had.
 

knoxville7

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I'm not sure what you're going on about here... My point is from the cubs perspective the drop off in what they would actually get in 2021 isn't that significant. I couldn't really care less about the trade discussion. My point is talking about how the trade impacts 2021 which is to say it really doesn't. If you say Darvish is a mid 3 ERA which again I think is very reasonable given the data I've already provided multiple times here and like wise if you think Davies is close to a 4 ERA pitcher the difference in on the field performance equates to least than 1 fWAR. So, literally the only way it matters if is the cubs finish 1 game out of the playoffs or if they make the playoffs and you want to discuss having a higher caliber arm there.

However, I don't think the cubs even make the playoffs without adding Joc and they aren't adding Joc unless they save the $13 mil in contract difference between Davies and Darvish. Hell the cubs might not even make the playoffs *with* Joc so I can't imagine how bad they may have been with whatever bargain bin replacement they would have had.

4894E0CD-5712-44E7-A616-4E9AB6284B91.jpeg
 

CSF77

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I'm not sure what you're going on about here... My point is from the cubs perspective the drop off in what they would actually get in 2021 isn't that significant. I couldn't really care less about the trade discussion. My point is talking about how the trade impacts 2021 which is to say it really doesn't. If you say Darvish is a mid 3 ERA which again I think is very reasonable given the data I've already provided multiple times here and like wise if you think Davies is close to a 4 ERA pitcher the difference in on the field performance equates to least than 1 fWAR. So, literally the only way it matters if is the cubs finish 1 game out of the playoffs or if they make the playoffs and you want to discuss having a higher caliber arm there.

However, I don't think the cubs even make the playoffs without adding Joc and they aren't adding Joc unless they save the $13 mil in contract difference between Davies and Darvish. Hell the cubs might not even make the playoffs *with* Joc so I can't imagine how bad they may have been with whatever bargain bin replacement they would have had.
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This is not a play off team.

Selling a ace and replacing with 3 one year deals of lower talented players is not a smart way of creating a play off team.

It is fluff.

Williams low investment IP absorber.

Jake was a fan appeasement.

Davies was to reflip.

Trying to argue Davies vs Darvish is a waste of time.

Darvish can pitch at cy young levels. Davies at best is a MOR if he has a strong command year.
 

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