IST: Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs

Bust

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Me thinks, nothing is going to change because Cubs have the same hitters (largely) and just take look at overall performance thru the years. That's why I'm not blaming front office for not willing toss large contract at those players. To Rizzo and others, you want larger contract? Earn it! One hit last night is pathetic...
and all this time me thought it was the work of the hitting coaches, oooops!

 

knoxville7

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The hitters were a issue going into this game. Collectively they are hitting .132 which is dead last. The staff and D has been keeping it together so far and that was the same last year.

So I'm not sure on why these guys have shut down collectively. Joc was on fire and now can't hit anything. .500=> .000 is drastic.
it’s because it’s the same hitters that have struggled for years to hit when it matters most. Adding Joc did nothing to improve this, as he lacks contact as well. Once the pitching blows up in their face against good hitting lineups, the cubs front office will go into sell mode come this deadline. And that’s unfortunately for the best anyways. Trade away the guys that can’t get it done and start over
 

CSF77

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it’s because it’s the same hitters that have struggled for years to hit when it matters most. Adding Joc did nothing to improve this, as he lacks contact as well. Once the pitching blows up in their face against good hitting lineups, the cubs front office will go into sell mode come this deadline. And that’s unfortunately for the best anyways. Trade away the guys that can’t get it done and start over

I was thinking the same thing.

They suck trade.
They in it stick them with a QO as they go out the door.

That money could be used towards Seager IMO

Say he asks for 12/360 (fair value)

Cubs are dropping 64+M in Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Kimberly.

With that cash you could target Seager and Story to push the next gen forward.
 
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knoxville7

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I was thinking the same thing.

They suck trade.
They in it stick them with a QO as they go out the door.

That money could be used towards Seager IMO

Say he asks for 12/360 (fair value)

Cubs are dropping 64+M in Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Kimberly.

With that cash you could target Seager and Story to push the next gen forward.
lol @ the notion of giving Seager a 12 year contract at 30 mil per year
 

Bust

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Least Kimbrel seems to have figured things out so he will have some value when he gets flipped at the trade deadline. 🤑
 

CSF77

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Well that was expected.

On Seager:. Lindor extended for 10 years at 341M. So that is a high bar for the other SS. I could see LAD extending Cory at 10/300 + a signing bonus. It is not even a reach right now.

Story I'm not sure if he sticks with Col. They have a long history of stupid mistakes and back peddling after. If I am him I am testing the market.

I would be fine with either. You have to expect 25-30 for either but that is a better investment than Bryant getting that. Or having Baez demand 26M AAV and continuing his struggles on the Cubs dime.

Regardless the main point is that they can dump 64M in 4 players. Jed would be smarter on signing a top hitter or 2 with it. Davis is the closest player via the system and he will be in AA this year. His promotion in 2022 moves Happ out of CF. Heyward is locked in RF til 2023. Joc most likely they retain for 2022 then look to trade for Davis to promote.

1B is a small fix to be honest. I don't see the need to dump here. CJ Cron would be a cheap target.

3B is a crud market. Would make more sense to target Story here and start Nico. Cubs have 2 top 100 quality SS in the system and this is a fix until they upwell.

Staff.

Rotation do nothing for now. Marquez should be close. I expect Daves traded. Replace with Marquez. Jake has a 10M opt so might as well pull it. Williams IMO extend if his success continues. Make his dad happy.
 

Bronek

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"Please let some other team give long-term deals to Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Contreras."

Agree. But I keep Contreras, he hasn't peaked yet.
 

CSF77

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"Please let some other team give long-term deals to Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Contreras."

Agree. But I keep Contreras, he hasn't peaked yet.
They should lock up Happ and Contreras to a long term.

That leaves:

1. Open (SS or 3B)
2. Happ
3. Contreras
4. Pederson
5 Open (1B)
6. Bote (2B or 3B)
7. Heyward
8. Hoerner (SS or 2B)


TBH this team sucks.

Adding Story and Crom:. @40M

1. Happ
2. Contreras
3. Pederson (pull opt)
4. Story
5. Crom
6. Bote
7. Heyward
8. Hoerner

SP
Hendricks
Arrieta (pull opt)
Alozay
Mills
Marquez

Pen
Kimbrel (pull opt)

Team would still have holes in it.

But pulling the opts costs 33.5M. tax is 58.125M. So we are talking 92M on the books. Add 40M for Story and Crom 132M. Then pull chaffin's mutual 5.25. Mariswick has a 4M mutual. I would pass on paying that to a short platoon.

So that is around 140M going in with pre arb. Extending Happ and Contreras at 15M AAV each (170M).

They would still be 40M under tax.

So they could even target Marwin Gonzalez to upgrade either 3B or 2B.
 

knoxville7

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They should lock up Happ and Contreras to a long term.

That leaves:

1. Open (SS or 3B)
2. Happ
3. Contreras
4. Pederson
5 Open (1B)
6. Bote (2B or 3B)
7. Heyward
8. Hoerner (SS or 2B)


TBH this team sucks.

Adding Story and Crom:. @40M

1. Happ
2. Contreras
3. Pederson (pull opt)
4. Story
5. Crom
6. Bote
7. Heyward
8. Hoerner

SP
Hendricks
Arrieta (pull opt)
Alozay
Mills
Marquez

Pen
Kimbrel (pull opt)

Team would still have holes in it.

But pulling the opts costs 33.5M. tax is 58.125M. So we are talking 92M on the books. Add 40M for Story and Crom 132M. Then pull chaffin's mutual 5.25. Mariswick has a 4M mutual. I would pass on paying that to a short platoon.

So that is around 140M going in with pre arb. Extending Happ and Contreras at 15M AAV each (170M).

They would still be 40M under tax.

So they could even target Marwin Gonzalez to upgrade either 3B or 2B.
what has Happ done to really warrant a long term deal?! Enough with the feast or famine approach to hitting please
 

CSF77

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what has Happ done to really warrant a long term deal?! Enough with the feast or famine approach to hitting please

15 AAV is pretty cheap on him. In 379 (1285 PA) games he has put up 6.8 fWAR.
Rizzo put up 2.8 fWAR in his 1st 3 years of 1211 PA add a 4th year? 436 games and 1827 PA. 2014 was his break out season and posted a 5.3 fWAR. Combined 8.1 fWAR.

So Happ was ahead in development earlier than Rizzo. Even with Rizzo's break out Happ needs to make 1.3 fWAR in 542 PA's to equal Rizzo.

Happ has been pretty consistent in his early years 1.9/1.5/1.5/1.9 fWAR.

So I wouldn't underrate him at all. Last year was a short year(4th year). He had a 132 wRC+ running. He ended up with 231 PA's. Add 400 PA's and that 1.9 fWAR starts looking like 4-5 fWAR and we are looking at a Rizzo type deal to keep his cost down...

I'm rather shocked that you didn't quip on Contreras clocking in at 15M AAV. I felt that was way low for a top 5 O catcher with D on the rise. 20 would be a baseline for him.
 

knoxville7

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15 AAV is pretty cheap on him. In 379 (1285 PA) games he has put up 6.8 fWAR.
Rizzo put up 2.8 fWAR in his 1st 3 years of 1211 PA add a 4th year? 436 games and 1827 PA. 2014 was his break out season and posted a 5.3 fWAR. Combined 8.1 fWAR.

So Happ was ahead in development earlier than Rizzo. Even with Rizzo's break out Happ needs to make 1.3 fWAR in 542 PA's to equal Rizzo.

Happ has been pretty consistent in his early years 1.9/1.5/1.5/1.9 fWAR.

So I wouldn't underrate him at all. Last year was a short year(4th year). He had a 132 wRC+ running. He ended up with 231 PA's. Add 400 PA's and that 1.9 fWAR starts looking like 4-5 fWAR and we are looking at a Rizzo type deal to keep his cost down...

I'm rather shocked that you didn't quip on Contreras clocking in at 15M AAV. I felt that was way low for a top 5 O catcher with D on the rise. 20 would be a baseline for him.
happ isn’t going to agree to 15 mil a year. That’s the issue
 

CSF77

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happ isn’t going to agree to 15 mil a year. That’s the issue
He is making 4.1M in A1.

A2 6M (27)
A3 8M (28)
20M (29)
20M (30)

This is 13.5M AAV alone. His 2 years of Arb buy out drops the tax hit naturally. Give him another 20M at 31 it is still 14.8M tax hit.
 

CSF77

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Math must be hard.

Even if he stagged 8/12/16/20/20. Buying 3 years. That hit is 15.2 to tax for that duration per year.

Tax is by the AAV not year amount.

So saying that you can not invest 15 AAV into Happ? He is the easiest to get at that rate. Contreras on the he other hand 6.65 right now with 1 year of control. Say they did the same scale. 10 mil is not a reach in arb. Now he will be 29 this year and 30 in his walk year.

With Amaya pretty much ready I would only resign Contreras as a 1B/C platoon with Amaya. With age his 1B work load increases and Amaya's work load increases with experience.
 

knoxville7

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Math must be hard.

Even if he stagged 8/12/16/20/20. Buying 3 years. That hit is 15.2 to tax for that duration per year.

Tax is by the AAV not year amount.

So saying that you can not invest 15 AAV into Happ? He is the easiest to get at that rate. Contreras on the he other hand 6.65 right now with 1 year of control. Say they did the same scale. 10 mil is not a reach in arb. Now he will be 29 this year and 30 in his walk year.

With Amaya pretty much ready I would only resign Contreras as a 1B/C platoon with Amaya. With age his 1B work load increases and Amaya's work load increases with experience.
math is easy. What’s not easy is acting like you know Happ will agree to that amount of a buy out. You’re simply speculating. Nothing more. But sure, go on being a pompous douche if you must. It does fit your style
 

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