It's going to be long, tough season for Gubbies.

Bronek

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Been following Cubbies since 1974. Considering everything, it does appear they will be a .500 club. Thoughts.
 

JP Hochbaum

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Well we don't know what the team will be as of yet, and the division has regressed as well. The Cubs can still win the division.
 

beckdawg

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Been following Cubbies since 1974. Considering everything, it does appear they will be a .500 club. Thoughts.
Think you're underestimating how poor the competition will be in the central. The brewers, reds and cards have done nothing to improve and they were roughly a .500 team over 60 games last season. Pitt looks like they could be #1 pick kinda bad for a second straight year.

Cubs really aren't much worse than 2020 at this specific moment. Schwarber was on pace for roughly 1 fWAR last season. Kipnis was on pace for 1.6 fWAR. Caratini was about a half win pace.

In terms of pitching that's where the cubs have lost the most. Darvish on the pace he was at was roughly an 8 win pitcher. Lester was worth 0.8 fWAR prorated. You also have chattwood and jeffries in there but i don't put much weight on bullpen arms year to year.

Point here is the biggest lost thus far is pulling together the 8 wins prorated you lost in Darvish. Thing is Davies was on a 3.8 fWAR pace himself. If you wanna be a bit more conservative he's put up 3 win seasons before. So, in the aggregate you're trying to find 5-6 wins to replace Darvish. They aren't going to but they could very realistically sign someone like Paxton and he could return to form. He could realistically be a 3-4 win pitcher if helathy so you're really down 2-ish wins from the Darvish trade.

Granted they very well may trade Brant as well but it's not as though Bryant had an amazing 2020. So, replacing him isn't production wise isn't *that* difficult though clearly they are a better team with him.

I don't think they are that much worse than the 2020 team. I also think Alzolay is poised for a breakout which could mitigate some of the value they lost in darvish. He was filthy in his 20 or so innings. I have no illusions here that the cubs are strong enough to be a world series contender but then there's really not much helping that.They have fundamental flaws that money can't fix. They need to rip back the team to the studs and build from the ground up to get a more healthy offense.
 

Bronek

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you think .500 makes for a long tough season?! You sure you been following the cubs since 1974?! Been a lot longer and tougher seasons than .500 ball
Oh yes, I been following them that long, used to watch them on WGN with Harry and Bringhouse(?) calling play by play, Remember seeing Rick Monday pick up our flag when some fools tried to set it on fire. Leon Durham, Kingman, Buckner time, back then the Cubs game was good place to catch a buzz, because the beer was cheap. The reason why I was expecting better than .500 season because overall there is bit more talent than in the years past.
 

HSBOB

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Think you're underestimating how poor the competition will be in the central. The brewers, reds and cards have done nothing to improve and they were roughly a .500 team over 60 games last season. Pitt looks like they could be #1 pick kinda bad for a second straight year.

Cubs really aren't much worse than 2020 at this specific moment. Schwarber was on pace for roughly 1 fWAR last season. Kipnis was on pace for 1.6 fWAR. Caratini was about a half win pace.

In terms of pitching that's where the cubs have lost the most. Darvish on the pace he was at was roughly an 8 win pitcher. Lester was worth 0.8 fWAR prorated. You also have chattwood and jeffries in there but i don't put much weight on bullpen arms year to year.

Point here is the biggest lost thus far is pulling together the 8 wins prorated you lost in Darvish. Thing is Davies was on a 3.8 fWAR pace himself. If you wanna be a bit more conservative he's put up 3 win seasons before. So, in the aggregate you're trying to find 5-6 wins to replace Darvish. They aren't going to but they could very realistically sign someone like Paxton and he could return to form. He could realistically be a 3-4 win pitcher if helathy so you're really down 2-ish wins from the Darvish trade.

Granted they very well may trade Brant as well but it's not as though Bryant had an amazing 2020. So, replacing him isn't production wise isn't *that* difficult though clearly they are a better team with him.

I don't think they are that much worse than the 2020 team. I also think Alzolay is poised for a breakout which could mitigate some of the value they lost in darvish. He was filthy in his 20 or so innings. I have no illusions here that the cubs are strong enough to be a world series contender but then there's really not much helping that.They have fundamental flaws that money can't fix. They need to rip back the team to the studs and build from the ground up to get a more healthy offense.
Darvish was on pace for an eight win season? He won eight of his twelve starts in a dramatically shorten season with a STERLING 2.01ERA and was runner up for the Cy Young. The average starter sees 34 starts which put Darvish on pace for 20+ wins.
The team is admittedly cost cutting,pretending they'll be better without their best players is exactly that......pretending!
The Cubs have had ONE successful rebuild in their dismal history and the guy responsible for it told the team to blow so there's that.
 

knoxville7

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Darvish was on pace for an eight win season? He won eight of his twelve starts in a dramatically shorten season with a STERLING 2.01ERA and was runner up for the Cy Young. The average starter sees 34 starts which put Darvish on pace for 20+ wins.
The team is admittedly cost cutting,pretending they'll be better without their best players is exactly that......pretending!
The Cubs have had ONE successful rebuild in their dismal history and the guy responsible for it told the team to blow so there's that.
he is referring to WAR, not actual win totals
 

HSBOB

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Oh yes, I been following them that long, used to watch them on WGN with Harry and Bringhouse(?) calling play by play, Remember seeing Rick Monday pick up our flag when some fools tried to set it on fire. Leon Durham, Kingman, Buckner time, back then the Cubs game was good place to catch a buzz, because the beer was cheap. The reason why I was expecting better than .500 season because overall there is bit more talent than in the years past.
I came up in the era of perennial last place finishes interrupted only by the GUT WRENCHING chokes of 69&84,I was at Kenny Holtzman's no-no back in 69 and the 22-23 game in 79 and I made every opening day in between. When the 92 offseason rolled around,I saw Maddox sign in Atlanta(a 23yro Cy Young winner) and another bum named Jamie Moyer go,I washed my hands of the failed franchise. Having never been a S0X basher(rare for a die hard.....I know) I became a proud 'transoxual'(came up with that myself...LOL)and had the honor to see the opening game of the 05 WS.......a WS the SOX would sweep.
Although I hadn't stepped foot into ballpark in 24 years at that point,I was overjoyed for the LONG SUFFERING Cub fans when the gift from God rain delay allowed the comeback in game seven after Uncle Joe did everything he could to blow that one too.
We'll see if this more fickle generation of Cub fans will be content with more last place finishes but I doubt they'll be as loyal as us dumb bastards in the past or at least I hope they're not after being used to a great team.
 

knoxville7

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I came up in the era of perennial last place finishes interrupted only by the GUT WRENCHING chokes of 69&84,I was at Kenny Holtzman's no-no back in 69 and the 22-23 game in 79 and I made every opening day in between. When the 92 offseason rolled around,I saw Maddox sign in Atlanta(a 23yro Cy Young winner) and another bum named Jamie Moyer go,I washed my hands of the failed franchise. Having never been a S0X basher(rare for a die hard.....I know) I became a proud 'transoxual'(came up with that myself...LOL)and had the honor to see the opening game of the 05 WS.......a WS the SOX would sweep.
Although I hadn't stepped foot into ballpark in 24 years at that point,I was overjoyed for the LONG SUFFERING Cub fans when the gift from God rain delay allowed the comeback in game seven after Uncle Joe did everything he could to blow that one too.
We'll see if this more fickle generation of Cub fans will be content with more last place finishes but I doubt they'll be as loyal as us dumb bastards in the past or at least I hope they're not after being used to a great team.

Maybe the money saved by the Ricketts(a family named after a disease)will allow them to acquire the rest of Wrigleyville or send massive money to more political candidates. They got their way on everything from the city and are now admittedly cost cutting.
Rebuild? I guess so if so many say it but the team just won their division by three games(an achievement unthought of in my youth)but blow it up they will or at least BLOW.
One can only hope cub fans realize what's goin' on when they're allowed back in.
Fan support of Chicago sports teams refusing to pay their best players is what led to the 23 title-less seasons I had the misfortune to live through and 2021 brings five straight...........18 more to go guys but we taught those greedy players a lesson.......am I right?
something doesn’t add up here
 

HSBOB

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he is referring to WAR, not actual win totals
He said and I quote "Darvish on pace he was at was roughly an eight win pitcher" word for word. He did go on to mention WAR when he referred to Lester and Darvish in the following paragraph but Darvish won eight of his twelve starts with a sterling ERA.......no?
No skin off my old,fat ass if one of the country's richest families wants to cut salaries and I'd recommend Cub fans relish the great team of the last five years.............it could take another 108 years to see it again.
 

HSBOB

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something doesn’t add up here
How so? The Bears NFL championship in '63' which I had to listen to on the radio was the last title won by the five professional sports teams in Chicago until the Bears won a SB in '86'........23 years without.
 
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beckdawg

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Darvish was on pace for an eight win season? He won eight of his twelve starts in a dramatically shorten season with a STERLING 2.01ERA and was runner up for the Cy Young. The average starter sees 34 starts which put Darvish on pace for 20+ wins.
The team is admittedly cost cutting,pretending they'll be better without their best players is exactly that......pretending!
The Cubs have had ONE successful rebuild in their dismal history and the guy responsible for it told the team to blow so there's that.
As knox said i was referring to WAR totals where the w in that equals "wins". I think you're missing the point here. They aren't going to be "better" by trading away Darvish. The argument I was making is that Darvish + Lester isn't that much better than what Davies and Paxton could put up.

When discussing these things you can't look at one player in a vacuum. Davies and Paxton probably would cost around $24 mil in 2021. Darvish alone was set to make $22 mil and Lester got $5 mil. If the cubs were to pick up Paxton and he returned to form they would be saving money while similutaneously being roughly as competitive as they were in 2020. That is exactly the type of move you want as a retooling team.

Don't get me wrong, if you were trying to build a WS team for 2021, you'd rather have darvish assuming he puts up similar season to 2020. Finding a 8 fwar pitcher is far more difficult than finding a 3-4 war pitcher and in the playoffs you want 8 war pitchers. But that's a moot point because there isn't enough of a team around darvish to be a legit WS threat.

So, if you're in that situation you have two potential plays. You could sell everything not bolted down or you could sell while trying to get cheaper and stay roughly at a similar level. In my opinion, tanking on a 2012 level doesn't make sense. For one thing their long term budget looks way better than the 2012 team. And for another their farm system is better than the 2012 system was. As such, the idea should be to get younger while still keeping a half decent team around those younger prospects you pick up so that when they eventually reach the majors they aren't there alone. And you have the added benefit that if the ball bounces right you could very well be a wild car team or in the shitty central you might evne still win it. And at that point who knows what happens. A roughly .500 cardinal team has won a WS in recent memory.
 

HSBOB

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As knox said i was referring to WAR totals where the w in that equals "wins". I think you're missing the point here. They aren't going to be "better" by trading away Darvish. The argument I was making is that Darvish + Lester isn't that much better than what Davies and Paxton could put up.

When discussing these things you can't look at one player in a vacuum. Davies and Paxton probably would cost around $24 mil in 2021. Darvish alone was set to make $22 mil and Lester got $5 mil. If the cubs were to pick up Paxton and he returned to form they would be saving money while similutaneously being roughly as competitive as they were in 2020. That is exactly the type of move you want as a retooling team.

Don't get me wrong, if you were trying to build a WS team for 2021, you'd rather have darvish assuming he puts up similar season to 2020. Finding a 8 fwar pitcher is far more difficult than finding a 3-4 war pitcher and in the playoffs you want 8 war pitchers. But that's a moot point because there isn't enough of a team around darvish to be a legit WS threat.

So, if you're in that situation you have two potential plays. You could sell everything not bolted down or you could sell while trying to get cheaper and stay roughly at a similar level. In my opinion, tanking on a 2012 level doesn't make sense. For one thing their long term budget looks way better than the 2012 team. And for another their farm system is better than the 2012 system was. As such, the idea should be to get younger while still keeping a half decent team around those younger prospects you pick up so that when they eventually reach the majors they aren't there alone. And you have the added benefit that if the ball bounces right you could very well be a wild car team or in the shitty central you might evne still win it. And at that point who knows what happens. A roughly .500 cardinal team has won a WS in recent memory.
I know how much money the team is saving and it's a massive amount but then again they need it don't they?
I don't follow the club as closely as you and others do so if you say they have TWO young pitchers who are almost as good as the Cy Young runner up.......we'll have to see about that.
Will also see how dumpin' your best palyers works for the Cubs but it's a long standing Chicago tradition and it's rarely worked out well......Theo did it but Theo's gone.
Five down.......Hundred and three to go.
 
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beckdawg

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I know how money the team is saving and it's a massive amount but then again they need it don't they?
I don't follow the club as closely as you and others do so if you say they have TWO young pitchers who are almost as good as the Cy Young runner up.......we'll have to see about that.
Will also see how dumpin' your best palyers works for the Cubs but it's a long standing Chicago tradition and it's rarely worked out well......Theo did it but Theo's gone.
Five down.......Hundred and three to go.
I mean that's the thing. It's not two pitchers being better than a cy young runner up. They wont be. However, can those 2 pitchers perform at a level close to a cy young plus a garbage bin signing to fill out your 5 man rotation? The answer is probably yes.

Look, in an ideal world you'd keep darvish and replace lester with something actually good. Like ideally you'd have Darvish and Paxton right? But sadly that's just not a reality based on how they appear to be focusing. Blame the ricketts all you want. I wont stop you. But the reality is that's how the front office has to approach things.

All I'm trying to point out here that if you have monetary constraints you're better putting your money into 2 above average players than one superstar and a bargin bin piece. I think it'd also be different if Darvish was the same age as Hendricks. But he's gonna be 34.
 

HSBOB

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I mean that's the thing. It's not two pitchers being better than a cy young runner up. They wont be. However, can those 2 pitchers perform at a level close to a cy young plus a garbage bin signing to fill out your 5 man rotation? The answer is probably yes.

Look, in an ideal world you'd keep darvish and replace lester with something actually good. Like ideally you'd have Darvish and Paxton right? But sadly that's just not a reality based on how they appear to be focusing. Blame the ricketts all you want. I wont stop you. But the reality is that's how the front office has to approach things.

All I'm trying to point out here that if you have monetary constraints you're better putting your money into 2 above average players than one superstar and a bargin bin piece. I think it'd also be different if Darvish was the same age as Hendricks. But he's gonna be 34.
Monetary constraints? When God needs money he calls the Ricketts. How they're focusing? They're focusing on amassing more money so they can buy the rest of Wrigleyville.
Other teams all around the league are adding players but here it's a fire sale?
One can only hope this generation of Cub fans is smarter than mine and don't fall for this salary dump. The team won their division by three games and wasn't that far away......it wasn't Darvish's fault nobody hit in the PO's.
I appreciate your concern for the financial health of the filthy rich and you'll always have '16' my friend........embrace the memory of that one or the one back in 1908.
We'll probably see Bryant and Contreras' money added to the dump soon but we have better I'm told.
 

CSF77

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It will most likely be a ugly season. ERA has been pretty stable over all.

2020 3.99 #10
2019 4.10 #7
2018 3.65 #3
2017 3.95 #7
2016 3.15 #1
2015 3.36 #3
2014 3.91 #21
2013 4.00 #21
2012 4.51 #24

So you get a feel about the staff in regard to the rest of the league vs ERA in general because run production will change year to year.

To me this will be key. How well does the staff prevent runs in general and how that stacks up to the rest of the league. On paper their 1-3 are high contact guys. Thus the ball is going to go into play. Mills could be a disaster in waiting. It is not like he is going to add MPH. He has 2 others that are similar in nature and being the weakest of the 3 the hitters would have a huge advantage going in.

That is one problem. The 2nd is who is going to be the 5. I really don't see them letting Marquez go at it. I don't see Jed making a financial commitment. Especially after seeing him let 3/5 go via F/A and trading the ace.

So this to me is the main issue going in to this season. That is why my prediction is below .500 and a sell off of assets in July.
 

Zvbxrpl

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He said and I quote "Darvish on pace he was at was roughly an eight win pitcher" word for word.
Yeah, he meant WAR. That's not terribly difficult to figure out assuming you have 2 semi-functioning brain cells.

Will also see how dumpin' your best palyers works for the Cubs but it's a long standing Chicago tradition and it's rarely worked out well......Theo did it but Theo's gone.
Theo stepped down on November 20th and Darvish got traded on December 30th.

Pass whatever the hell you're smoking.
 

HSBOB

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Yeah, he meant WAR. That's not terribly difficult to figure out assuming you have 2 semi-functioning brain cells.



Theo stepped down on November 20th and Darvish got traded on December 30th.

Pass whatever the hell you're smoking.
First off.....FUCK OFF! He said Darvish was on pace for eight wins before he ever mentioned WAR.

I didn't say Theo traded Darvish,he's a better baseball man than that. I did say he led the rebuild and he's gone......don't have to be high to know that. Theo did dump players with HIS rebuild,which is what I was referring to and it was successful but he gone.

Cubs will suck again for decades with these billionaire paupers in charge but enjoy it.......win or lose we booze!

I always pass.....been passin' for 50 years!LOL!
 
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