Jay cutler facts through week 5

Willis1524

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Only jay can e a loser but the games he won be considered team wins. Why dont you understand Willis?

Its so hard for me to sit back and read dumb shit day after day. My wife says I have an anger problem, when really the truth is I can't stand dumb people.
 

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There are good ones?

there are INTS that are meaningless (when you're ahead and you still win), and INTS that are relatively harmless (don't lead to points for the other team) and there are INTS that lead to losses, lots of points, are at key moments, etc.
 

Scoot26

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Jay's 6 INTs..

1. vs Buffalo... 1st Q throws an ill-advised pass to Bennett, is picked off and returned to the CHI 7. Bills score a TD on the next play. HORRIBLE INT
2. vs Buffalo... 4th Q, with the Bears driving in BUF territory with the game tied, Cutler throws another ill-advised pass to Bennett, is picked off. A horse collar tackle is added on to the return. The Bills go on to kick a FG and take the lead. GAME CHANGING INT
3. vs Green Bay... 3rd Q After mostly flawless 1st half, the Bears come out flat in the 2nd. However, driving to tie the game back up at 24, and at the GB 24, Cutler throws an ill-advised pass to Josh Morgan, which is deflected by Tramon Williams and then caught by Clay Matthews and returned 40 yards. The Packers score on the ensuing drive to put the Packers up two scores GAME CHANGING INT
4. vs Green Bay... 3rd Q...The ensuing drive after the last pick, the Bears are again driving. Cutler and Marshall have miscommunication and Cutler throws a pass meant for a hook route while Marshall is going deep. Sam Shields easily intercepts. Packers score again. Game over at this point.
5. vs Carolina... 1st Q... The Bears driving to tie the game at 7 and at the CAR 31.. Cutler throws a pass to Marshall, who is in triple coverage (Tape shows Holmes is wide open in addition to Jeffrey being opening for a quick slant. Forte is wide open in the flat.). Really bad INT, but not a game changer..It leads to no points and Bears recover with 21 unanswered.
6. vs Carolina... 4th Q... Getting good field position from a punt and protecting a 24-21 lead at the CAR 46, Cutler throws a poor pass over the middle which is intercepted and returned 35 yards. Carolina is set up with good field position. They tie the game at 24. GAME CHANGING INT

4 of his 6 INTs have resulted in major swings for games. You could argue 5, but the miscommunication one between him and Marshall I'll let slide as the reality of that game was the Bears D wasn't stopping anyone. #5 on that list is arguable in the potential that the Bears could have scored on that drive.
 

airtime143

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Packers (Rodgers because I left out Flynn)- Has had 41 Drives start from a punt or KO. They have scored 16 times (11 TD 5 FG) (39%). Had 7 drives start from TO, 5 resulting in TD. Not all that better than Cutler especially since the last two games for the Packers were blowouts.


(Hats off to airtime this crap took my whole lunch break. Unless there is a faster way to do this than play by play logs on ESPN)

I straight up cheated- i searched points off of turnovers, grabbed what i needed, and then looked at the NFL site stats page to compile the rest of the scores.

disgustingly enough, I used to utilize a part time A.A. for one of my ventures, and on down times I would give her a few bucks to put together an excel doc. that had a myriad of searchable unique stats on a team by team basis... began doing that on a week where she needed work and I had nothing for her.
 

airtime143

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Packers (Rodgers because I left out Flynn)- Has had 41 Drives start from a punt or KO. They have scored 16 times (11 TD 5 FG) (39%). Had 7 drives start from TO, 5 resulting in TD. Not all that better than Cutler especially since the last two games for the Packers were blowouts.


(Hats off to airtime this crap took my whole lunch break. Unless there is a faster way to do this than play by play logs on ESPN)


If the numbers are right, that is a significant difference- Touchdowns alone, that puts Jay at 17% on P/K and 40% on TO, Whereas Rodgers is at 27% on P/K and 71% on turnovers.... that is an amazingly large swing.

BUT- 5 games isnt really a big enough sample size to be incredibly accurate, so take it with a grain of salt.

Although the takeaway from that is there is a clear, compelling argument that supports the narrative that turnovers kill.

the Forte fumble in carolina led to the panthers scoring easily after being fairly inept all day.... putting a tired d immediately back in to play while the opposition is pumped about a turnover.

there is no way to ignore the fact that turnover margin is the single most important indicator of victory in the game. no matter how you slice it, that is the most common correlation between victory and loss.



Edit- the reason I trim out the field goals and am looking at the tds alone is because a field goal, the majority of the time, means the offense was stopped... exceptions being going for the field goal for a win)
 

Willis1524

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If the numbers are right, that is a significant difference- Touchdowns alone, that puts Jay at 17% on P/K and 40% on TO, Whereas Rodgers is at 27% on P/K and 71% on turnovers.... that is an amazingly large swing.

BUT- 5 games isnt really a big enough sample size to be incredibly accurate, so take it with a grain of salt.

Although the takeaway from that is there is a clear, compelling argument that supports the narrative that turnovers kill.

the Forte fumble in carolina led to the panthers scoring easily after being fairly inept all day.... putting a tired d immediately back in to play while the opposition is pumped about a turnover.

there is no way to ignore the fact that turnover margin is the single most important indicator of victory in the game. no matter how you slice it, that is the most common correlation between victory and loss.



Edit- the reason I trim out the field goals and am looking at the tds alone is because a field goal, the majority of the time, means the offense was stopped... exceptions being going for the field goal for a win)

I agree and IMO the turnovers are the main thing hindering this offense. I noticed that some drives are different than others, like I know Rodgers had some that were kneels, and I'm not sure if those are counted in yours or other places where you could get that stat from. Initially I was not going to compare Cutler to Rodgers for this stat, but the Packers and Seahawks were the first game of the season and I didn't know it would take so long to do.
 

Warrior Spirit

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I think the list of current QBs is pretty short, since it's now a passing league. And QBs literally can't be tackled.

Rodgers
P Manning

Brady is an honorable mention, but Cassell did a reasonable job when Brady got injured


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When you talk about QBs that are winners, I wouldn't hesitate to add Russell Wilson to that list.
 

airtime143

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I agree and IMO the turnovers are the main thing hindering this offense. I noticed that some drives are different than others, like I know Rodgers had some that were kneels, and I'm not sure if those are counted in yours or other places where you could get that stat from. Initially I was not going to compare Cutler to Rodgers for this stat, but the Packers and Seahawks were the first game of the season and I didn't know it would take so long to do.

I went simply off the PFR site for drives- most likely the numbers would be slightly different when you subtract victory formations or end of half.


It is worth noting that with the numbers you provided that excluded the flynn series', that probably gives a little boost to Rodgers... blowout wins tend to end in 3 runs and a punt for the winning team, bringing down the average.
 

airtime143

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When you talk about QBs that are winners, I wouldn't hesitate to add Russell Wilson to that list.

Russel wilson is a prime example of why I hate the espn QBR.... 3rd ranked passer in the league by traditional standards.... and he is at #15 in QBR... behind Hoyer, Glennon, Stafford, Cutler, and Flacco.

Dude has been top shelf all year.
 

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When you talk about QBs that are winners, I wouldn't hesitate to add Russell Wilson to that list.

Mine were QB that were doing well then taken out for a period of time and their teams bombed.

In addition to Wilson, Luck could probably be added to that list.
 

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