Jeramiah bears trade prediction

[PrideisBears]

He is talking about late rapper nipsy hustle

 

[Moses Moreno]

the Lions pick from LA. turned out alright and the Rams won the SB

Forecasting out 2 years is pretty wild but it's fully reasonable to expect Houston and Indy to be absolute trash next year and Carolina won't be.

Carolina was trending upwards to finish last season, they're the 9th overall pick which means they're offering the least valuable 2023 pick and most likely the least valuable future firsts. They could help us out by offering current studs like Burns but it's going to be extremely steep of a climb for them to win the bidding war for this pick. I'd expect to see them trading up for #3 given their need for a QB and the plethora of picks they have.

 

[Marley's Liberality]

I'd also be using the leverage of this pick to package some of our lower picks for the trading partners mid rounds. I don't think they end of this draft will be nearly as talented as last year so I'm happy to get our of it. Alternatively, I'd want to package our late rounders for mid rounders in next year's draft.

 

[RacerX]

Sorry, but I don't see that.

The supply of 1st round QBs is 2 with two others possible because of physical traits. That makes 4 possible 1st round QBs.

The demand for a starting, not franchise, QB is over half of the league. I don't remember any year where there were so many teams who were "kicking the tires" on a new signal caller. The demand is at an all-time high.

So, using supply and demand models, teams should be overpaying to move up, not underpaying.

Thoughtful reply, thanks. But let's agree to disagree, for a legit overpay there has to be a seriously desperate team - usually two or more in a bid situation, not just a bunch of tire kickers. At this juncture I don't see any GM willing to gamble his future on overpaying to draft BY but that may change between now and draft day.

 

[remydat]

Think it depends on who can afford to miss on a QB.

Houston - Caserio has blown 2 Coaching hires. If he passes on 1 and that QB is better than who he picks at 2 then he could be fired and Ryan gets a new GM.

Colts - Think it is obvious Ballard is fired if he misses on a top QB.

Falcons - This GM/Coach team is entering 3 seasons and nothing really to show for it but probably safe.

Panthers - Reich is new and GM has assembled some talent so probably safe.

Raiders - This tandem may already be wearing out its welcome but probably safe as Raiders still paying for Gruden.

 

[TL1961]

I love college football and enjoy watching the players go from being recruits to become pro prospects. Just like seeing NFL rookies become Hall Of Famers.

I thoroughly enjoyed watching Jim Finks put together the 85 Bears. This off season is a great chance for the Bears to take a big step towards becoming relevant again.

That 1983 draft was sensational. A repeat this year would be welcomed.

 

[TL1961]

Thoughtful reply, thanks. But let's agree to disagree, for a legit overpay there has to be a seriously desperate team - usually two or more in a bid situation, not just a bunch of tire kickers. At this juncture I don't see any GM willing to gamble his future on overpaying to draft BY but that may change between now and draft day.

I wouldn’t characterize Houston with the league’s worst roster and Indy with a GM on the hot seat as “tire kickers”.

Ballard gets a QB or a pink slip.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

Thoughtful reply, thanks. But let's agree to disagree, for a legit overpay there has to be a seriously desperate team - usually two or more in a bid situation, not just a bunch of tire kickers. At this juncture I don't see any GM willing to gamble his future on overpaying to draft BY but that may change between now and draft day.

Have you ever ended up alone in a dusty, dirty, dark, dank cellar?

Did you happen to feel creeped out and started imagining all sorts of wild situations like a mass murderer in the same cellar as you or started imagining the possibility of ghosts being real and one of them was right there with you?

Chances are that there were as many mass murderers and phantasms as there were super models in that cellar, but it didn't stop you from imagining all sorts of crazy stuff.

Well, the Colts' and Texans' GMs are both sitting in that cellar imagining Atlanta, Carolina, the Raiders, plus a host of other teams moving up to #1 for Young. If either of the Colts or the Texans have Young as their surefire #1 QB, they are wondering if any team moves up to #1 to get THEIR QB. Is it worth losing some draft capital to get THEIR guy? Absolutely.

The situation is even more dire for the Colts. They are in the unique situation where they might end up with neither of the top 3 QBs if they do not move up. Do you think that it is impossible for the Bears to trade down to #2 (or even later) for the Texans to get THEIR guy, then trade down again past the Colts to get additional picks and their trade partner getting QB #2 and, finally, the Cardinals trading down for a team to jump in front of the Colts to get QB #3?

Using supply and demand again, if two QBs go 1 and 2 in the 1st, the value of the #3 QB rises considerably. The Cards could easily trade down to get more draft capital in 2023 and 2024 because 2023 is going to be a wasted season already.

Now let me talk about those tire kicking teams, or a non-kicking the tires team.

The Dallas Cowboys already have their QB, but the owner seems to have fallen in love with CJ Stroud (not made up ... by me at least). They are currently sitting at 26.

There should be zero reason why they should even be kicking the tires, except for their eccentric owner, Jones.

Imagine Jones deciding that he wants CJ Stroud at any cost. He decides that the only way he can be 100% sure of getting him is moving up to #1. Now he as a ton to pay to get to #1. Poles knows this and decides to "fleece" him.

For Poles to even answer the phone from Jones, Jones has to start at three #1s and two #2s.

Both Jones and Poles that this is still not enough, so Poles tells Jones to add Micah Parsons if he wants HIS QB. Jones tells him that he needs to think about it.

After carful consideration lots of kicking and screaming because he was not getting his way, Jones calls back and tells Poles that he accepts the trade.

Poles, in a great DRAFT DAY moment, tells Jones that offer was from before but that the world has changed since then.

As I said, Poles wants to "fleece" the Cowboys and everyone knows that you fleece sheep. So he tells Jones that he want CeeDee Lamb (lamb, get it?) too, take it or leave it right now.

Jones accepts.

Sure, this is an outlandish scenario, but it points out what might be going through the Texans' and Colts' GMs minds (and the owner's mind. Think about what Jim Irsay is thinking, after telling everyone he really likes Young).

Want a less outlandish scenario?

How about the Lions or the Seahawks jumping in front of the Colts to get the 3rd QB off the board to be their heir-apparent, seeing that the price of moving up one or two spots is worth getting a QB who can sit and learn behind their current QB?

That is not some crazy thing. It could happen, or two of the Carolina, Raiders, Falcons or Titans could move up. That is already 6 teams in the top 11 who could do a lot more than just kick the tires.

The Texans and the Colts (and Ballard is on the hot seat already) are both in "the cellar" with drops of water landing on their foreheads at a steady pace.

 

[cameronkrazie86]

I wouldn’t characterize Houston with the league’s worst roster and Indy with a GM on the hot seat as “tire kickers”.

Ballard gets a QB or a pink slip.

I agree. The Texans GM is entering year 3 and they've been the laughing stock of the league his entire tenure. Now they got a really well respected coach, they have to take a QB to give Demeco Ryans the best chance at success. If you don't have a QB you aren't winning shit.

The Colts have Ballard and like you said, he has to get a QB or he gets a pink slip. We already know Irsay is wanting a QB. Depending on who trades into 1 (if it's not the Texans or Colts), all the sudden pick 3 becomes a legit possibility to get moved. Is that unlikely? Probably. But if you're a team who needs a QB and the guy you like best is still there at 3, you have to make a move to get him. I just don't think the Colts can afford to stay and wait til 4 to hope that their QB drops especially if the Texans are still at 2 and someone else jumped them at 1.

So do I think we could see some unprecedented godfather type offer? I think there's a real possibility.

 

[RacerX]

Have you ever ended up alone in a dusty, dirty, dark, dank cellar?

Did you happen to feel creeped out and started imagining all sorts of wild situations like a mass murderer in the same cellar as you or started imagining the possibility of ghosts being real and one of them was right there with you?

Chances are that there were as many mass murderers and phantasms as there were super models in that cellar, but it didn't stop you from imagining all sorts of crazy stuff.

Well, the Colts' and Texans' GMs are both sitting in that cellar imagining Atlanta, Carolina, the Raiders, plus a host of other teams moving up to #1 for Young. If either of the Colts or the Texans have Young as their surefire #1 QB, they are wondering if any team moves up to #1 to get THEIR QB. Is it worth losing some draft capital to get THEIR guy? Absolutely.

The situation is even more dire for the Colts. They are in the unique situation where they might end up with neither of the top 3 QBs if they do not move up. Do you think that it is impossible for the Bears to trade down to #2 (or even later) for the Texans to get THEIR guy, then trade down again past the Colts to get additional picks and their trade partner getting QB #2 and, finally, the Cardinals trading down for a team to jump in front of the Colts to get QB #3?

Using supply and demand again, if two QBs go 1 and 2 in the 1st, the value of the #3 QB rises considerably. The Cards could easily trade down to get more draft capital in 2023 and 2024 because 2023 is going to be a wasted season already.

Now let me talk about those tire kicking teams, or a non-kicking the tires team.

The Dallas Cowboys already have their QB, but the owner seems to have fallen in love with CJ Stroud (not made up ... by me at least). They are currently sitting at 26.

There should be zero reason why they should even be kicking the tires, except for their eccentric owner, Jones.

Imagine Jones deciding that he wants CJ Stroud at any cost. He decides that the only way he can be 100% sure of getting him is moving up to #1. Now he as a ton to pay to get to #1. Poles knows this and decides to "fleece" him.

For Poles to even answer the phone from Jones, Jones has to start at three #1s and two #2s.

Both Jones and Poles that this is still not enough, so Poles tells Jones to add Micah Parsons if he wants HIS QB. Jones tells him that he needs to think about it.

After carful consideration lots of kicking and screaming because he was not getting his way, Jones calls back and tells Poles that he accepts the trade.

Poles, in a great DRAFT DAY moment, tells Jones that offer was from before but that the world has changed since then.

As I said, Poles wants to "fleece" the Cowboys and everyone knows that you fleece sheep. So he tells Jones that he want CeeDee Lamb (lamb, get it?) too, take it or leave it right now.

Jones accepts.

Sure, this is an outlandish scenario, but it points out what might be going through the Texans' and Colts' GMs minds (and the owner's mind. Think about what Jim Irsay is thinking, after telling everyone he really likes Young).

Want a less outlandish scenario?

How about the Lions or the Seahawks jumping in front of the Colts to get the 3rd QB off the board to be their heir-apparent, seeing that the price of moving up one or two spots is worth getting a QB who can sit and learn behind their current QB?

That is not some crazy thing. It could happen, or two of the Carolina, Raiders, Falcons or Titans could move up. That is already 6 teams in the top 11 who could do a lot more than just kick the tires.

The Texans and the Colts (and Ballard is on the hot seat already) are both in "the cellar" with drops of water landing on their foreheads at a steady pace.

Another excellent reply, you raise some good points and frankly I am too lazy to do further analysis and research to refute all that. Let’s just agree to disagree for the tI e being, I will pin this exchange and we can revisit if/when the trade down occurs.

 

[gobullschi]

Agreed.

“If you look at those trades — trade-ups for quarterbacks, usually when you look at the trade chart, it’s about 120%, give or take, in terms of the trade chart value,” Jeremiah said. “You have to pay a premium if you are going to come up for a quarterback, which is great news there for the Bears.”

Daniel Jeremiah lays out 3 realistic NFL draft trade scenarios for Bears at No. 1 - Yahoo Sports

Daniel Jeremiah laid out 3 teams he believes will be in the mix for trading up with the Bears and what those packages would look like.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[dennehy]

“If you look at those trades — trade-ups for quarterbacks, usually when you look at the trade chart, it’s about 120%, give or take, in terms of the trade chart value,” Jeremiah said. “You have to pay a premium if you are going to come up for a quarterback, which is great news there for the Bears.”

Daniel Jeremiah lays out 3 realistic NFL draft trade scenarios for Bears at No. 1 - Yahoo Sports

Daniel Jeremiah laid out 3 teams he believes will be in the mix for trading up with the Bears and what those packages would look like.

sports.yahoo.com

Right I read that. It's based on a handful of trades, and means little in for any specific situation. Also doesn't count the many times a team stayed at #1 and picked a non-QB at rather than trade. Plus people were saying Jememiah's proposed trade with Carolina wasn't good enough.

It's going to be based on what a team will pay for a specific player.

 

[Tom Paris]

The key is maximizing the value of the 1st pick to the fullest extent possible. By going from 1 to 9, you're almost certainly guaranteed to miss out on Anderson and Carter. So if I'm the GM and I'm missing out on that opportunity by dropping so far, the other trade partner really has got to overcompensate me to make that move. The last thing I want is the Bears to make the trade from 1 to 9 early in the process without trying to get that true godfather offer. If we're on draft day and that's truly the best trade offer, then yeah, you take it. But not until then imo.

Totally agree with this.

 

[bamainatlanta]

the Lions pick from LA. turned out alright and the Rams won the SB

Correct. No one has a crystal ball to say where a team will pick for the next 2years. Bengals went from picking 1st overall to 31st in just 2 years.

 

[gobullschi]

Right I read that. It's based on a handful of trades, and means little in for any specific situation. Also doesn't count the many times a team stayed at #1 and picked a non-QB at rather than trade. Plus people were saying Jememiah's proposed trade with Carolina wasn't good enough.

It's going to be based on what a team will pay for a specific player.

I’m consistently seeing 3-5 QBs being mocked in the top 10 this year. Were any of the QBs (from the 2021 draft class) being mocked in the top 10 last year at around this time?

It’s really hard to get a feel for this QB draft class and every team can’t just say “we’ll wait till next year”.

Idk…It feels like this QB class is getting slept on a bit, but I can’t tell if it’s because the Bears already have a QB and that’s somehow skewing the projections, if it’s because teams are hesitant to pay the price to move up, or if it’s another QB draft class that doesn’t feature a franchise QB.

Also - I can’t imagine being an NFL executive or scout and taking the position, “we will take whoever falls to us” approach. Basically admitting you can’t evaluate a QB.

 

[dennehy]

I’m consistently seeing 3-5 QBs being mocked in the top 10 this year. Were any of the QBs (from the 2021 draft class) being mocked in the top 10 last year at around this time?

It’s really hard to get a feel for this QB draft class and every team can’t just say “we’ll wait till next year”.

Idk…It feels like this QB class is getting slept on a bit, but I can’t tell if it’s because the Bears already have a QB and that’s somehow skewing the projections, if it’s because teams are hesitant to pay the price to move up, or if it’s another QB draft class that doesn’t feature a franchise QB.

There are many years when there is no trade up to 1, including 2017, with good QB prospects.

I think this QB class is getting overhyped. The best guy is very small, Stroud was meh for most of the year, Levis has been all over the place his whole career and seems like a weirdo.

There is alot of demand, which is what the Bears have going for them.

 

[Chicagosports89]

Think it depends on who can afford to miss on a QB.

Houston - Caserio has blown 2 Coaching hires. If he passes on 1 and that QB is better than who he picks at 2 then he could be fired and Ryan gets a new GM.

Colts - Think it is obvious Ballard is fired if he misses on a top QB.

Falcons - This GM/Coach team is entering 3 seasons and nothing really to show for it but probably safe.

Panthers - Reich is new and GM has assembled some talent so probably safe.

Raiders - This tandem may already be wearing out its welcome but probably safe as Raiders still paying for Gruden.

I think Panthers owner is pretty desperate for a franchise qb. He was pushing hard for Watson and has kicked tires on other vets. I'd be surprised if they aren't very much involved in potential trade ups

 

[TL1961]

I think Panthers owner is pretty desperate for a franchise qb. He was pushing hard for Watson and has kicked tires on other vets. I'd be surprised if they aren't very much involved in potential trade ups

For some reason I keep coming back to the Panthers making the surprise move. For the Bears to trade down that far it would need to be a HUGE haul but as you said, they were ready to pay Watson a gazillion dollars, so if they can now get a rookie for way less $, they'll probably be willing to give up picks.

 

[gobullschi]

There are many years when there is no trade up to 1, including 2017, with good QB prospects.

I think this QB class is getting overhyped. The best guy is very small, Stroud was meh for most of the year, Levis has been all over the place his whole career and seems like a weirdo.

There is alot of demand, which is what the Bears have going for them.

That’s because most of the time the team with the first pick needs to draft a QB.

2021 - Trevor Lawrence
2020 - Joe Burrow
2019 - Kyler Murray
2018 - Baker Mayfield
2016 - Jared Golf
2015 - Jameis Winston

4 of the last 10 drafts did not have a QB drafted 1st overall. Here is the list of the first 2 QBs drafted in those years.

2022 - Kenny Pickett (20th & only QB taken)
2017 - Mitch Trubisky (2nd) & Mahomes (10th)
2014 - Blake Bortles (3rd) & Johnny Manziel (22nd)
2013 - 0 QBs taken in first round

Outside of 2017, I consider this QB draft class to be better than all of those years.

This draft class is getting slept on. The hype machine is about to start. Levis & Richardson are going to showcase elite arm strength. Richardson & Stroud will run well.

 

[TL1961]

That’s because most of the time the team with the first pick needs to draft a QB.

2021 - Trevor Lawrence
2020 - Joe Burrow
2019 - Kyler Murray
2018 - Baker Mayfield
2016 - Jared Golf
2015 - Jameis Winston

4 of the last 10 drafts did not have a QB drafted 1st overall. Here is the list of the first 2 QBs drafted in those years.

2022 - Kenny Pickett (20th & only QB taken)
2017 - Mitch Trubisky (2nd) & Mahomes (10th)
2014 - Blake Bortles (3rd) & Johnny Manziel (22nd)
2013 - 0 QBs taken in first round

Outside of 2017, I consider this QB draft class to be better than all of those years.

This draft class is getting slept on. The hype machine is about to start. Levis & Richardson are going to showcase elite arm strength. Richardson & Stroud will run well.

I believe Richardson will show good athleticism and get overdrafted as he doesn't really play QB well. But Levis will be better than many fans expect. He has good instincts and a very good arm. He had bad personnel around him. As the #3 QB, someone will be lucky to grab him. He's no Mac Jones.