Joc Pederson signed

knoxville7

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So we signed a guy like SChwarber for the same amount of money we could have had schwarber???
exaclty, fucking stupid how they handled that. But of course, according to certain people on here....schwarber wasn’t going to get 8 mil to play and was going to end up in Korea. I guess maybe that poster is actually Jed hoyer
 

beckdawg

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So we signed a guy like SChwarber for the same amount of money we could have had schwarber???
Nah he's cheaper. And he's not really the same as schwarber. I mean yes the numbers look similar but the past 3 full seasons for Joc he was at 21.1%, 19.2%, and 21.6% k rates respectively. It was up in 2020 to 24.6% but 2020 was such a weird year.

By contrast, Schwarber has never had a k rate lower than 25.6%. Now you may say sure that is the case but their overall slash line is basically identical. To that I would reply that not every out is the same. Putting balls in play even if they are outs can have positive out comes where as nothing good comes from a strike out. That in a nutshell is why I personally believe the cubs have had so much issues with their offense.

Let me give an example to illustrate here. Cubs typically were one of the best teams in the majors at walking. So let's say the lead off guy walks. This is what you want and you have a decent probability of converting that to a run. Cubs in the recent years have also been one of the worst teams at striking out. If the next two hitters strike out you got a man on first. If the next hitter gets a single you're not scoring. However, if rather than k's you had Joc put a ball in play maybe the runner advances to second. Maybe that runner scores on the single. It's stuff like that where k rate matters. It's why games where the cubs couldn't put together a big inning always felt so frustrating to watch because they literally couldn't move guys around the bases to set up scoring chances.

I'd also add there's a markable difference in defense. Pederson isn't great but he can play CF. He's roughly equivalent in the defensive metrics to Happ in CF. So, moving him to LF will make your defense better.
 

CSF77

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Cubs To Sign Joc Pederson
January 29th, 2021 at 9:05am CST • By Steve Adams
9:05am: There’s a mutual option for the 2022 season on the contract as well, Sherman tweets. As with many mutual options, it comes with a notable buyout, so Pederson’s actual 2021 salary will come in a ways south of that $7MM sum. (Option buyouts are always included in the “guaranteed” portion of a contract.)
Mutual options are typically used as accounting measures more than anything else. A player who overperforms his contract will generally decline his half of the option in favor of a return to market in search of a more lucrative deal; similarly, a player who underperforms may opt into his side of the deal, but the team will turn down its half in those settings. It’s not unprecedented for both sides to exercise a mutual option, but it is quite rare. In other words, the overwhelming likelihood is that Pederson will again be on the open market next winter.
 

CSF77

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8:30am: It’s a one-year, $7MM deal for Pederson, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The contract carries an additional $500K of available incentives, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Passan suggests that the Cubs will give Pederson an opportunity to play on an everyday basis rather than platooning him — a component of the deal that was particularly appealing for Pederson
 

SilenceS

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I dont mind Joc. He has hit some big homers. I mean are we just talking about a name? Who cares who it is cause I mean wasnt like Schwarbs was a Cub legend
 

CSF77

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Well if the Cubs go status que the line up is not that bad.

Career wRC+

Happ 116
Bryant 137
Rizzo 131
Contreras 116
Pederson 118
Baez 101
Heyward 108
Hoerner 73

So in reality Joc kind of fits in this year and has better quality D than Schwarber held. Add to it he can play CF if needed. So he is not a sketchy OF with a plus arm only.

If these hitters can hoover around their career avg production then this team will generate runs.
 

knoxville7

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If joc is playing CF, the cubs will really be in trouble
 

CSF77

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If joc is playing CF, the cubs will really be in trouble

LF his DRS is +8 over his career.
CF: -16
RF: +6

So you are not wrong.

Happ
LF: +2
CF: -5
RF: -2

You could say they are there for their bats.

The main point is Joc is going to make the Cubs O about the same as it was. And it adds to LF D.
 

knoxville7

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LF his DRS is +8 over his career.
CF: -16
RF: +6

So you are not wrong.

Happ
LF: +2
CF: -5
RF: -2

You could say they are there for their bats.

The main point is Joc is going to make the Cubs O about the same as it was. And it adds to LF D.
id rather have schwarber for 3 mil more. That said, joc isn’t a horrible schwarber replacement. The issue is, the cubs offense struggled w schwarber. What makes anyone think it will be as good or better w joc? It won’t is the answer. It will be a similar lineup to the last couple years where the bats go ghost when it matters most. Maybe they can flip joc at the deadline if he has a good first half of the season, otherwise signing joc was pretty pointless IMO
 

beckdawg

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id rather have schwarber for 3 mil more. That said, joc isn’t a horrible schwarber replacement. The issue is, the cubs offense struggled w schwarber. What makes anyone think it will be as good or better w joc? It won’t is the answer. It will be a similar lineup to the last couple years where the bats go ghost when it matters most. Maybe they can flip joc at the deadline if he has a good first half of the season, otherwise signing joc was pretty pointless IMO
I have said this else where in more detail but Joc strikes out less than Schwarber. I think people are underestimating the impact that has. If you look at the offense the past several years the cubs always scored runs. However the issue was that they all came in giant clumps. So, you would end up with a lot of games where the offense dumpped 6+ runs but then you'd also have games where they could literally not get anyone in scoring position.

I've yet to see someone suggest a better reasoning for why this was the case than I have. My contention is that the abundance of high k rate guys lead to innings where you'd get someone on base and then strike out and they'd be stuck on first. If you managed a single that guy doens't score where as outs in play can be infield balls that the defense can't turn 2 on or they could be outfield flies that allow you to tag up and advance the runner.

In short, lower k rate players are better in tight games.
 

knoxville7

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I have said this else where in more detail but Joc strikes out less than Schwarber. I think people are underestimating the impact that has. If you look at the offense the past several years the cubs always scored runs. However the issue was that they all came in giant clumps. So, you would end up with a lot of games where the offense dumpped 6+ runs but then you'd also have games where they could literally not get anyone in scoring position.

I've yet to see someone suggest a better reasoning for why this was the case than I have. My contention is that the abundance of high k rate guys lead to innings where you'd get someone on base and then strike out and they'd be stuck on first. If you managed a single that guy doens't score where as outs in play can be infield balls that the defense can't turn 2 on or they could be outfield flies that allow you to tag up and advance the runner.

In short, lower k rate players are better in tight games.
I hear ya but let’s not act like joc is some “contact” hitter. He strikes out plenty still
 

beckdawg

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I hear ya but let’s not act like joc is some “contact” hitter. He strikes out plenty still
Oh no doubt. But 20.6% k rate in the last 3 full seasons(excluding 2020 because it was a weird year) vs 27.7% for schwarber over the same time frame is a pretty massive improvement. And in fairness, it's not just Schwarber we're talking about. Hoerner is probably going to have the inside shot at 2B and he has a career 16.8% k rate which based on his minor league numbers might be a touch high with his first splash in the majors. Kipnis took the majority of PAs last year there and he was a 30.4% k rate guy.

Look around at the rest of thet eam, Rizzo has always been very strong in the k rate department. Heyward as well is better than average. Contreras is above league average but if you just look at C's in the league 2017-2019, they are at 26.6% so his career 23.6% is better than that.

Baez and Happ may still be problems in that regard. Bryant remains to be seen if he's with the team or not but he's been a touch above average if memory serves. If he's gone Bote is kind of an issue there. So, there's still some work to be done but they are improving.
 

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Nah he's cheaper. And he's not really the same as schwarber. I mean yes the numbers look similar but the past 3 full seasons for Joc he was at 21.1%, 19.2%, and 21.6% k rates respectively. It was up in 2020 to 24.6% but 2020 was such a weird year.

By contrast, Schwarber has never had a k rate lower than 25.6%. Now you may say sure that is the case but their overall slash line is basically identical. To that I would reply that not every out is the same. Putting balls in play even if they are outs can have positive out comes where as nothing good comes from a strike out. That in a nutshell is why I personally believe the cubs have had so much issues with their offense.

Let me give an example to illustrate here. Cubs typically were one of the best teams in the majors at walking. So let's say the lead off guy walks. This is what you want and you have a decent probability of converting that to a run. Cubs in the recent years have also been one of the worst teams at striking out. If the next two hitters strike out you got a man on first. If the next hitter gets a single you're not scoring. However, if rather than k's you had Joc put a ball in play maybe the runner advances to second. Maybe that runner scores on the single. It's stuff like that where k rate matters. It's why games where the cubs couldn't put together a big inning always felt so frustrating to watch because they literally couldn't move guys around the bases to set up scoring chances.

I'd also add there's a markable difference in defense. Pederson isn't great but he can play CF. He's roughly equivalent in the defensive metrics to Happ in CF. So, moving him to LF will make your defense better.
Good info, beckdawg! One little tidbit though. "nothing good comes from strikeouts." We've watched certain players over the past few years consistently ground out into double plays. A K is better than putting the ball into play there. :smug2:
 

beckdawg

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Good info, beckdawg! One little tidbit though. "nothing good comes from strikeouts." We've watched certain players over the past few years consistently ground out into double plays. A K is better than putting the ball into play there. :smug2:
Fair point. But even high double play guys are only doing it a handful of times a year. Abreu was the worst in 2019 at 24 over 693 PAs so that's what less than 3.5% of the time for the worst of the worst offenders.
 

beckdawg

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So here's an interesting factoid... Joc and Javy both debuted in 2014. Over that time frame Joc has put up 13 fWAR over 748 games. Javy has put up 14 fWAR over 724 games. Clearly Javy has been more valuable but I doubt many view Joc being even in the realm of value of Javy.
 

beckdawg

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Also another interesitng fact from fangraphs article i'm reading on the move...

Against right-handed pitching — and he’ll face quite a lot of it, with only four lefties out of the 20 projected starters in the rest of the NL Central — that’s a valuable boost to a lineup that otherwise looked a bat or two short.
Didn't realize there were that few lefty starts in the central
 

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