JP Hochbaum
Well-known member
- Joined:
- May 22, 2012
- Posts:
- 2,012
- Liked Posts:
- 1,282
He essentially replaces Schwarber. Almost identical hitting stats as him.
So we signed a guy like SChwarber for the same amount of money we could have had schwarber???
Nah he's cheaper. And he's not really the same as schwarber. I mean yes the numbers look similar but the past 3 full seasons for Joc he was at 21.1%, 19.2%, and 21.6% k rates respectively. It was up in 2020 to 24.6% but 2020 was such a weird year.So we signed a guy like SChwarber for the same amount of money we could have had schwarber???
If joc is playing CF, the cubs will really be in trouble
LF his DRS is +8 over his career.
CF: -16
RF: +6
So you are not wrong.
Happ
LF: +2
CF: -5
RF: -2
You could say they are there for their bats.
The main point is Joc is going to make the Cubs O about the same as it was. And it adds to LF D.
I have said this else where in more detail but Joc strikes out less than Schwarber. I think people are underestimating the impact that has. If you look at the offense the past several years the cubs always scored runs. However the issue was that they all came in giant clumps. So, you would end up with a lot of games where the offense dumpped 6+ runs but then you'd also have games where they could literally not get anyone in scoring position.id rather have schwarber for 3 mil more. That said, joc isn’t a horrible schwarber replacement. The issue is, the cubs offense struggled w schwarber. What makes anyone think it will be as good or better w joc? It won’t is the answer. It will be a similar lineup to the last couple years where the bats go ghost when it matters most. Maybe they can flip joc at the deadline if he has a good first half of the season, otherwise signing joc was pretty pointless IMO
I have said this else where in more detail but Joc strikes out less than Schwarber. I think people are underestimating the impact that has. If you look at the offense the past several years the cubs always scored runs. However the issue was that they all came in giant clumps. So, you would end up with a lot of games where the offense dumpped 6+ runs but then you'd also have games where they could literally not get anyone in scoring position.
I've yet to see someone suggest a better reasoning for why this was the case than I have. My contention is that the abundance of high k rate guys lead to innings where you'd get someone on base and then strike out and they'd be stuck on first. If you managed a single that guy doens't score where as outs in play can be infield balls that the defense can't turn 2 on or they could be outfield flies that allow you to tag up and advance the runner.
In short, lower k rate players are better in tight games.
Oh no doubt. But 20.6% k rate in the last 3 full seasons(excluding 2020 because it was a weird year) vs 27.7% for schwarber over the same time frame is a pretty massive improvement. And in fairness, it's not just Schwarber we're talking about. Hoerner is probably going to have the inside shot at 2B and he has a career 16.8% k rate which based on his minor league numbers might be a touch high with his first splash in the majors. Kipnis took the majority of PAs last year there and he was a 30.4% k rate guy.I hear ya but let’s not act like joc is some “contact” hitter. He strikes out plenty still
Good info, beckdawg! One little tidbit though. "nothing good comes from strikeouts." We've watched certain players over the past few years consistently ground out into double plays. A K is better than putting the ball into play there.Nah he's cheaper. And he's not really the same as schwarber. I mean yes the numbers look similar but the past 3 full seasons for Joc he was at 21.1%, 19.2%, and 21.6% k rates respectively. It was up in 2020 to 24.6% but 2020 was such a weird year.
By contrast, Schwarber has never had a k rate lower than 25.6%. Now you may say sure that is the case but their overall slash line is basically identical. To that I would reply that not every out is the same. Putting balls in play even if they are outs can have positive out comes where as nothing good comes from a strike out. That in a nutshell is why I personally believe the cubs have had so much issues with their offense.
Let me give an example to illustrate here. Cubs typically were one of the best teams in the majors at walking. So let's say the lead off guy walks. This is what you want and you have a decent probability of converting that to a run. Cubs in the recent years have also been one of the worst teams at striking out. If the next two hitters strike out you got a man on first. If the next hitter gets a single you're not scoring. However, if rather than k's you had Joc put a ball in play maybe the runner advances to second. Maybe that runner scores on the single. It's stuff like that where k rate matters. It's why games where the cubs couldn't put together a big inning always felt so frustrating to watch because they literally couldn't move guys around the bases to set up scoring chances.
I'd also add there's a markable difference in defense. Pederson isn't great but he can play CF. He's roughly equivalent in the defensive metrics to Happ in CF. So, moving him to LF will make your defense better.
Fair point. But even high double play guys are only doing it a handful of times a year. Abreu was the worst in 2019 at 24 over 693 PAs so that's what less than 3.5% of the time for the worst of the worst offenders.Good info, beckdawg! One little tidbit though. "nothing good comes from strikeouts." We've watched certain players over the past few years consistently ground out into double plays. A K is better than putting the ball into play there.
Against right-handed pitching — and he’ll face quite a lot of it, with only four lefties out of the 20 projected starters in the rest of the NL Central — that’s a valuable boost to a lineup that otherwise looked a bat or two short.