Jon Lester

[zack54attack]

Likely made his last start at Wrigley Field (depending on a playoff game). Most important Cubs free-agent signing in team history?

 

[CSF77]

Likely made his last start at Wrigley Field (depending on a playoff game). Most important Cubs free-agent signing in team history?

Yu might be when it is all said and done.

I'm not 100% sure on Jon returning or not. He did not get the innings required and 17 mil could be better used elsewhere. But seeing how it is Jon you never know if Theo leaves on a good note with him.

It wouldn't shock me if it ended up as a buy out then a 5 mil 1 year offer and Jon takes it.

 

[CSF77]

But to be honest here. I question if Jon was worth his deal bit. He was paid as an ace and was #2 behind Jake. When he took over from Jake the team scuffled. Now that Yu has taken over as ace the team is strong again.

That is why I feel Yu will end up a better signing. He is paid as a 2 and pitches ace level. Jon is paid as a 1 and has been a 2.

So speaking of value regarding cash no. As in team value questionable.

 

[wonky73]

For nostalgic reasons, I'd like to come back to at least have one final game and Wrigley with fans there.

 

[SilenceS]

He was worth every penny. He was lights out in '16 and '17 playoffs. He is a fierce competitor that changed the team the moment he signed.

 

[knoxville7]

But to be honest here. I question if Jon was worth his deal bit. He was paid as an ace and was #2 behind Jake. When he took over from Jake the team scuffled. Now that Yu has taken over as ace the team is strong again.

That is why I feel Yu will end up a better signing. He is paid as a 2 and pitches ace level. Jon is paid as a 1 and has been a 2.

So speaking of value regarding cash no. As in team value questionable.

the guy has thrown 70 innings in the postseason as a cub with a 2.44 ERA, and was the 2016 NLCS MVP against the dodgers to you know...get the cubs to the WS for the first time in decades.

and you say jake was the ace? Well, in that magical 2016 season Lester went 19-5 with a 2.44 ERA with a 5.6 WAR. Jake went 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA and a 3.8 WAR. Lester was every bit of an ace arrieta was and more.

you mention the team scuffling after Lester ”took over” for jake when jake left. But let’s not act like if jake had stayed, things would of somehow been better. Jake declined since that 2016 season just like Lester has. Difference is Lester was still a solid pitcher in his age 34 season. Jake, by age 34 is already rocking an era over 5

 

[CSF77]

You guys are taking it too personal.

He was contracted to 155 mil. (-9.45 mil for this year)
Over that time he has put up 17 fWAR.

So he cost 8.6 mil per point of fWAR.

Knox your Jake post is out of context and not about the point that I was making. If I said Theo should have resigned Jake for X reason then yes it would be a valid take.

Regardless this was about cash value he was a #1SP. (AAV 25.8Mil)
Over that time his avg production was 2.8 fWAR. And this year is wonky but a .2 fWAR is not what you want for 9 mil.

I could go into the whole race card and a white player (AKA Kerry Wood) being over glorified but I really don't like going down those lanes.

Like I said I would be fine if Theo gives the 10 and offers Jon 5 and he pitches next year. Nothing wrong with the guy and they will need the stability after losing Q and Chatwood.

 

[MDB111™]

But to be honest here. I question if Jon was worth his deal bit. He was paid as an ace and was #2 behind Jake. When he took over from Jake the team scuffled. Now that Yu has taken over as ace the team is strong again.

That is why I feel Yu will end up a better signing. He is paid as a 2 and pitches ace level. Jon is paid as a 1 and has been a 2.

So speaking of value regarding cash no. As in team value questionable.

Lester was runner up to Cy Young severap seasons ago right? Lost it to Degrom? If that ain't Ace,not sure what is.

 

[zack54attack]

Lester was runner up to Cy Young severap seasons ago right? Lost it to Degrom? If that ain't Ace,not sure what is.

Everyone loses it to deGrom in the Cy Young these days

 

[CSF77]

Lester was runner up to Cy Young severap seasons ago right? Lost it to Degrom? If that ain't Ace,not sure what is.

Again it was based off of fWAR not off of a CY young.

Major League Leaderboards - 2016 - Starters | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

Lester ranked #6 in fWAR. The Cy is a jadded system.

 

[MDB111™]

Again it was based off of fWAR not off of a CY young.

Major League Leaderboards - 2016 - Starters | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

Lester ranked #6 in fWAR. The Cy is a jadded system.

Still an Ace year IMO. Last season and this yr???? Not at all but the guy was the man in previous seasons.
I get your points though.

 

[CSF77]

Sori: 2007-2012. 17.3 fWAR for 136 mil. (2.16 fWAR AVG) He got shit by fans but was paid 7.9 mil per fWAR. Inflation and all.

To be honest here there is not a great history of FA signings for the Cubs.

 

[CSF77]

Still an Ace year IMO. Last season and this yr???? Not at all but the guy was the man in previous seasons.
I get your points though.

2016 was a team effort. Cubs were ranked #4 in fWAR as a staff. 18.8

Jon and Kyle tied at 4.2 fWAR while Jon had 2 extra starts and 12.2 IP added to Kyle.

Kyle had a 2.13 ERA vs Jon 2.44.
Kyle 3.20 FIP Jon 3.41

Kyle was closer to the ace than Jon was. 2 more starts this would have not have even been close.

 

[CSF77]

Going further: 2017. Jon led the staff with a 2.9 fWAR. But Theo had to trade his farm for Q who put up 2.1 fWAR in 14 starts. (Jon had 32 and put up .8 fWAR more)

2018 they sign Yu who falls to injury. Jon dips to a 2.0 fWAR. Kyle steps up from a injured 2017 and puts up 3.5 fWAR. They steal Hamels who puts up 1.6 fWAR in 12 starts.

See a trend here.

2019 was actually a good year for the staff. Hendricks 4.1 fWAR. Q 3.5. Lester 2.8. Darvish came back in the 2nd half and posted a 2.6. If Cole didn't get injured they should have gone in IMO. A bit disappointing IMO.

Regardless he has really never been the staff ace. Not even Theo thought that as he kept on hiring guns to take the mantle.

He has been a strong #2 SP that degraded to middle now back. About it.

 

[Diehardfan]

Only trend I see is that someone in this forum could really use a metric enema....

 

[CSF77]

Only trend I see is that someone in this forum could really use a metric enema....

Metrics are a part of baseball and their values are used in the evaluation process by front offices. Not my problem if you don't care for them.

 

[TL1961]

But to be honest here. I question if Jon was worth his deal bit. He was paid as an ace and was #2 behind Jake. When he took over from Jake the team scuffled. Now that Yu has taken over as ace the team is strong again.

That is why I feel Yu will end up a better signing. He is paid as a 2 and pitches ace level. Jon is paid as a 1 and has been a 2.

So speaking of value regarding cash no. As in team value questionable.

It was Jon Lester from day one.

when his team went into the postseason it was Jon Lester that they needed to leave the way

Re: the comment on Yu becoming the most important FA signing. I Annesely don’t know how that could even be possible Lester put the team over the top change the culture wanna World Series even if you Darvish his team goes on to win a World Series it doesn’t rank nearly as important as that Jon Lester signing I Annesely don’t know how that could even be possible Lester put the team over the top change the culture wanna World Series even if you Darvish his team goes on to win a World Series it doesn’t rank nearly as important as that Jon Lester signing

 

[TL1961]

Going further: 2017. Jon led the staff with a 2.9 fWAR. But Theo had to trade his farm for Q who put up 2.1 fWAR in 14 starts. (Jon had 32 and put up .8 fWAR more)

2018 they sign Yu who falls to injury. Jon dips to a 2.0 fWAR. Kyle steps up from a injured 2017 and puts up 3.5 fWAR. They steal Hamels who puts up 1.6 fWAR in 12 starts.

See a trend here.

2019 was actually a good year for the staff. Hendricks 4.1 fWAR. Q 3.5. Lester 2.8. Darvish came back in the 2nd half and posted a 2.6. If Cole didn't get injured they should have gone in IMO. A bit disappointing IMO.

Regardless he has really never been the staff ace. Not even Theo thought that as he kept on hiring guns to take the mantle.

He has been a strong #2 SP that degraded to middle now back. About it.

You’re making the argument that Theo was trying to add to the pitching staff as proof that Jon Lester was never an ace? I don’t get that logic at all.

 

[knoxville7]

Throw around numbers but ignore all the stats thrown back at you...nicely done CSF

 

[CSF77]

It was Jon Lester from day one.

when his team went into the postseason it was Jon Lester that they needed to leave the way

Re: the comment on Yu becoming the most important FA signing. I Annesely don’t know how that could even be possible Lester put the team over the top change the culture wanna World Series even if you Darvish his team goes on to win a World Series it doesn’t rank nearly as important as that Jon Lester signing I Annesely don’t know how that could even be possible Lester put the team over the top change the culture wanna World Series even if you Darvish his team goes on to win a World Series it doesn’t rank nearly as important as that Jon Lester signing

I posted in contract value as in cash worth. I've always said team value is another story. Boras sold Jake based off of big game value vs metrics and the Phill's took it in the ass over it.

Yu has time working against him. He gets injured year 1. Year 2 it took 1/2 a season to figure it out. The payday this year was cut in half. So basically 1/2 of his contract value has been shot by life basically. He has 3 years to really push his value up or it falls into a loss in cash value.

Team value can mean many things and tends to be diluted. So you can say one thing gives value and I can say this means value. We would argue but we are right in our own minds so it is ok.

I'll take deGromm as a instance. Great pitcher. Shit team. No real play off exposure. Do you take that away from him. Is it fair to give another pitcher a edge on play off value in a discussion when deGromm has been stuck on a trash team?

So I tend to look at hard info vs soft. Like metrics and raw talent when evaluating a player.