Jon Lester

[CSF77]

Throw around numbers but ignore all the stats thrown back at you...nicely done CSF

Your stats are soft stats. He benefited by a strong org. You swap him and deGromm the Cubs are sitting with more rings and are able to hold their talent. Which means having Cease and Eloy still.

What if's are jadded also but I'm pretty sure that Theo would have been aiming lower than overpaying for Q with deGromm leading the staff.

So you can toss out your info and if you feel that he deserves to be called a ace over that time frame it is fine. I'll stick to hard metrics and say no. He was a 2 that got worse with age.

The thing that he did give was stability and that is a necessary element. All the behind the scenes stuff falls into soft. Just like Jason's speech. It doesn't make up for a cash loss. But as far as view points and perspective goes Jason is a bad guy and Jon is a saint. Both really didn't live up to the cash investment.

 

[CSF77]

Just remember. You add 11 years and you will start to sound like a white sox fan with all of the 2016 lingo.

Old news.

 

[knoxville7]

Your stats are soft stats. He benefited by a strong org. You swap him and deGromm the Cubs are sitting with more rings and are able to hold their talent. Which means having Cease and Eloy still.

What if's are jadded also but I'm pretty sure that Theo would have been aiming lower than overpaying for Q with deGromm leading the staff.

So you can toss out your info and if you feel that he deserves to be called a ace over that time frame it is fine. I'll stick to hard metrics and say no. He was a 2 that got worse with age.

The thing that he did give was stability and that is a necessary element. All the behind the scenes stuff falls into soft. Just like Jason's speech. It doesn't make up for a cash loss. But as far as view points and perspective goes Jason is a bad guy and Jon is a saint. Both really didn't live up to the cash investment.

now we are somehow throwing degrom in the conversation as a substitution? Geez. And nowhere did I say Jason is a bad guy and Jon a saint. All I’ve said is Jon gave them #1 quality starting pitching till the last couple years of his contract...of which, everyone knew he wouldn’t be that good come the final year anyways.

in the 6 years with the cubs he’s gotten us 76 regular season wins(most during that span) and got us past the dodgers to help the cubs get that elusive WS. He had a better WAR than your boy crush jake arrieta too.

but, sure go on and on about not living up to his contract and bringing up players that have zero to do with the cubs and making up things people don’t say.

 

[truthbedamned]

Going further: 2017. Jon led the staff with a 2.9 fWAR. But Theo had to trade his farm for Q who put up 2.1 fWAR in 14 starts. (Jon had 32 and put up .8 fWAR more)

2018 they sign Yu who falls to injury. Jon dips to a 2.0 fWAR. Kyle steps up from a injured 2017 and puts up 3.5 fWAR. They steal Hamels who puts up 1.6 fWAR in 12 starts.

See a trend here.

2019 was actually a good year for the staff. Hendricks 4.1 fWAR. Q 3.5. Lester 2.8. Darvish came back in the 2nd half and posted a 2.6. If Cole didn't get injured they should have gone in IMO. A bit disappointing IMO.

Regardless he has really never been the staff ace. Not even Theo thought that as he kept on hiring guns to take the mantle.

He has been a strong #2 SP that degraded to middle now back. About it.

Bernstein...........is that you?

 

[CSF77]

now we are somehow throwing degrom in the conversation as a substitution? Geez. And nowhere did I say Jason is a bad guy and Jon a saint. All I’ve said is Jon gave them #1 quality starting pitching till the last couple years of his contract...of which, everyone knew he wouldn’t be that good come the final year anyways.

in the 6 years with the cubs he’s gotten us 76 regular season wins(most during that span) and got us past the dodgers to help the cubs get that elusive WS. He had a better WAR than your boy crush jake arrieta too.

but, sure go on and on about not living up to his contract and bringing up players that have zero to do with the cubs and making up things people don’t say.

You lost when you used wins as a measuring stick.

Wins is a team measurement . That is like saying deGromm shouldn't get a CY unless he gets 20 wins. Silly

Add to it it is foolish to gauge player value on play off success. That is Boras logic. It is using a 1 MONTH PEROID TO JUSTIFY VALUE VS THE 162 GAME SPAN.

Just saying.

 

[CSF77]

I'll dumb it down

2015 Jon signed ace level cash. Jake ends up pitching like a Ace.
2016 1st half Jake was on fire. 2nd half Hendricks took off on his ERA title,
2017: Jake becomes ineffective. Kyle battles injury. Jon stays steady but loses 1.5 WAR value. They sign Q to save the season.
2018: They ink Yu to take over from Jake as the TOR RHSP. Jon and Q were debatable as the #2 at that point. Ends up Yu gets injured. Kyle makes a comeback and leads the team in WAR. They sign Hamels to push into the play offs.
2019: 1st half it was Cole leading the staff. Yu had a incredible run in the 2nd half.
2020: At least he has been healthy. About it.

So as far as staff ace goes he has been that for 1/2 of 2017 and was due to injury and Jake losing velocity than Jon pitching at a high level.

In terms of fWAR I don't consider any SP pitching at TOR levels much less ACE unless he is near to or over 5 fWAR. Jon only did that in 2015 at 4.9. Even then Jake put is a insane CY young run that year.

 

[Diehardfan]

Bernstein...........is that you?

LOL. Almost as arrogant. He's a fucking mailman who thinks he's a baseball expert. Bernstein is an asshole who thinks he's an expert on everything. But hey, it's the internet where all you need is a keyboard in front of you to be anything you want to be.

 

[knoxville7]

You lost when you used wins as a measuring stick.

Wins is a team measurement . That is like saying deGromm shouldn't get a CY unless he gets 20 wins. Silly

Add to it it is foolish to gauge player value on play off success. That is Boras logic. It is using a 1 MONTH PEROID TO JUSTIFY VALUE VS THE 162 GAME SPAN.

Just saying.

I used WAR and ERA besides just wins. but you know, continue to be disingenuous...that’s cool too. And there’s definitely something to be said for a guy that when given a lead holds it and goes deep into the game. And that’s what prime Lester did

and again, it’s 70 innings of postseason ball. Not some tiny sample, that’s almost half a season of baseball. But again, be disingenuous...it’s what you do best

 

[Spunky Porkstacker]

You guys are taking it too personal.

He was contracted to 155 mil. (-9.45 mil for this year)
Over that time he has put up 17 fWAR.

So he cost 8.6 mil per point of fWAR.

Knox your Jake post is out of context and not about the point that I was making. If I said Theo should have resigned Jake for X reason then yes it would be a valid take.

Regardless this was about cash value he was a #1SP. (AAV 25.8Mil)
Over that time his avg production was 2.8 fWAR. And this year is wonky but a .2 fWAR is not what you want for 9 mil.

I could go into the whole race card and a white player (AKA Kerry Wood) being over glorified but I really don't like going down those lanes.

Like I said I would be fine if Theo gives the 10 and offers Jon 5 and he pitches next year. Nothing wrong with the guy and they will need the stability after losing Q and Chatwood.

To the bolded...............wut?

 

[CSF77]

To the bolded...............wut?

Exactly as stated.

Wood was worshiped. for 1 game basically. Z was shat on. (had a better carrier(30 fWAR as a Cub)). Sori shat on. ( put up 17+ fWAR) Sammy (60 fWAR as a Cub) booed out when the first chance came. Yu crapped on right off the bat (even though he was a victim of cheating in the play offs. But of course the faithful attack him at the first chance calling him as I recall jellyfish.

So ya the north side has had a history. Which is crazy IMO considering 3 of the greatest Cubs were black ball players. Not what you expect out of a fan base.

 

[CSF77]

LOL. Almost as arrogant. He's a fucking mailman who thinks he's a baseball expert. Bernstein is an asshole who thinks he's an expert on everything. But hey, it's the internet where all you need is a keyboard in front of you to be anything you want to be.

Yes and a Cubs fan sense 1977. And a math nut.

Just a hobby that keeps me in touch with a city that I grew up in. And I did play the game for a bit of my life. Nothing to write home about though.

We all have stories that make us fans of the game and to judge others is belittling your self in the end.

To that end I never went into team value on Jon. I went into cash value and used fWAR as an example.

ERA is a fine tool also as is WHIP. I've used both to evaluate players. fWAR leans heavy into IP and FIP. it really doesn't take team factors like D quality and how much run support given.

 

[CSF77]

I used WAR and ERA besides just wins. but you know, continue to be disingenuous...that’s cool too. And there’s definitely something to be said for a guy that when given a lead holds it and goes deep into the game. And that’s what prime Lester did

and again, it’s 70 innings of postseason ball. Not some tiny sample, that’s almost half a season of baseball. But again, be disingenuous...it’s what you do best

Using post season stats really shouldn't be considered. I used deGromm because you can not give that value to him because of his situation.

I look at it this way. If I am trading for a player then yes I am looking at that data because that is my current need.

If I am making a long term deal then I have to look at the 162 first and for most. I need to know durability and to be honest fWAR values to judge what my investment will be. Getting into the play offs is a crap shoot so I wouldn't put that first. It would be a icing not the cake.

Now regarding Jon and his success it has more to do with good fortune being in the situation that he got. Theo showed him loyalty and rewarded him for it.

 

[SilenceS]

Using post season stats really shouldn't be considered. I used deGromm because you can not give that value to him because of his situation.

I look at it this way. If I am trading for a player then yes I am looking at that data because that is my current need.

If I am making a long term deal then I have to look at the 162 first and for most. I need to know durability and to be honest fWAR values to judge what my investment will be. Getting into the play offs is a crap shoot so I wouldn't put that first. It would be a icing not the cake.

Now regarding Jon and his success it has more to do with good fortune being in the situation that he got. Theo showed him loyalty and rewarded him for it.

Players have literally been put into the HOF over post season success. This is a weird take. No one talks about someone being good in game 88 of the regular season.

Either way, this is a super weird hill to die on. Fangraphs has him worth his contract. He changed the org when he was signed. He is a leader and a winner.

 

[SilenceS]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1307085861310390272

I found this interesting. I didnt expect the Castro thing.

 

[knoxville7]

Using post season stats really shouldn't be considered. I used deGromm because you can not give that value to him because of his situation.

I look at it this way. If I am trading for a player then yes I am looking at that data because that is my current need.

If I am making a long term deal then I have to look at the 162 first and for most. I need to know durability and to be honest fWAR values to judge what my investment will be. Getting into the play offs is a crap shoot so I wouldn't put that first. It would be a icing not the cake.

Now regarding Jon and his success it has more to do with good fortune being in the situation that he got. Theo showed him loyalty and rewarded him for it.

so you look at the 162 game regular season first and foremost...and you emphasize durability. Well, did Lester not make the vast majority of his starts? You’re contradicting yourself now by saying he wasn’t worth his contract even though that’s priority number 1 in your eyes.

also, the regular season is not a crap shoot. You play 162 games(other than this season) to get to the playoffs. Nothing crap shoot like about a sample size larger than any other sport. The playoffs is the crap shoot

not going to respond to your race baiting crap either

I’ll finish by saying I’m damn glad you’re not the one in charge of decision making for the cubs. Not signing Lester would probably lead to no ring in 2016 and possibly still searching for the first one since 1908.

 

[Diehardfan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1307085861310390272

I found this interesting. I didnt expect the Castro thing.

I doubt anyone did....there can't be a lot of people who put Starlin in the catagory of leader. I'm one of the few here that liked him as player but no way would I have guessed this.

Maybe Rizz is being sarcastic....

 

[SilenceS]

I doubt anyone did....there can't be a lot of people who put Starlin in the catagory of leader. I'm one of the few here that liked him as player but no way would I have guessed this.

Maybe Rizz is being sarcastic....

Castro was brought up too young. It stunted his development. He has a mild mannered attitude. People always took that as he didnt care. But, he has been in the league over 10 years. You dont stay in the show that long unless you put in the work

 

[Diehardfan]

Players have literally been put into the HOF over post season success. This is a weird take. No one talks about someone being good in game 88 of the regular season.

Either way, this is a super weird hill to die on. Fangraphs has him worth his contract. He changed the org when he was signed. He is a leader and a winner.

My favorite Lester moment

 

[CSF77]

Players have literally been put into the HOF over post season success. This is a weird take. No one talks about someone being good in game 88 of the regular season.

Either way, this is a super weird hill to die on. Fangraphs has him worth his contract. He changed the org when he was signed. He is a leader and a winner.

HOF is a bit cringy also. A pitcher stuck on a shit team and wins 200 games really needs a bit of love to get in. Could you imagine deGromm ending up with 215 wins and a 2.05 ERA and blocked because the Mets suck? I can't.

Sandberg got in by not making errors. He played it safe and played it conservative as a 2B because the GG was his measuring stick and at that point errors was the weight. Now you look at range and other measurements. Where that ball that you didn't take the risk counts.

The game has changed

 

[fatbeard]

HOF is a bit cringy also. A pitcher stuck on a shit team and wins 200 games really needs a bit of love to get in. Could you imagine deGromm ending up with 215 wins and a 2.05 ERA and blocked because the Mets suck? I can't.

Sandberg got in by not making errors. He played it safe and played it conservative as a 2B because the GG was his measuring stick and at that point errors was the weight. Now you look at range and other measurements. Where that ball that you didn't take the risk counts.

The game has changed

Sandberg is 15th all-time in 2B fWAR and 31st in defensive score. The idea that he got into the HOF but just "not making errors" is just...wrong. Like, really wrong.