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BY CIAN FAHEY
@QBDataMine
Justin Fields Could be a Star in the NFL
A quarterback's process is how he makes decisions and how his body acts in reaction to the defence on a given play. There are good quarterbacks who have very consistent processes, Tom Brady for example, and good quarterbacks who have very inconsistent processes, Ben Roethlisberger.
It's generally better to have a quarterback who has a consistent process. It's easier for those quarterbacks to repeat their success if they understand their own process but it's also easier to build an offence around them when you know what they're going to do in given situations.
Russell Wilson's inconsistency seeing open receivers and making decisions from within the pocket for example makes him tougher to play with than an average quarterback.
But nobody would take an average quarterback over Russell Wilson.
You're just conceding a level of control and embracing a greater element of chaos when you take on a quarterback with an inconsistent process. Good coaches understand they can't control everything and trying to is a shortcut to failure.
While there are consistent and inconsistent processes, there always needs to be a process. A thought process through which we can clearly see the quarterback determining what to do. We need to be able to understand what the quarterback is trying to do and what he's thinking to evaluate him.
There are far too many quarterback prospects come draft time who don't have a process. They drop back and try to figure things out as they go. If their first receiver is covered, it's time to panic. You can write those guys off straight away.
You can embrace the guys with consistent processes straight away.
Justin Fields has a consistent process. Fields understands what he's trying to do on each play. He's not locking onto his first read because he's frozen by fear in the pocket. He's not moving his feet more than he needs to or turning the wrong direction once he gets the ball. And most importantly, when he moves or breaks the pocket, his eyes stay up as he looks to throw rather than force the run.
For this first play, train your eyes to the top of the screen where Fields' receiver is running an out route. Fields wants him initially but sees the defensive back shuffle his feet to the outside as his receiver reaches the top of his stem. His receiver falls down, so if Fields had thrown the ball or stared him down he'd have invited trouble.
Instead, he had already moved onto his curl route. He didn't throw the ball to his slot receiver as there was a defender setting on the route. His eyes continued to the opposite side of the field. At this point, pressure forced him to abandon the top of his drop.
Fields winds up picking his way through the pressure expertly to advance downfield for a good gain. He never forced the scramble and wasn't panicked by the pressure coming from multiple points.
So now watch this play back again.
Rather than focusing on the receivers or the pass rush, focus exclusively on Fields' feet and his shoulders. Does anything look awkward? Is he ever off balance or out of control? No. Every movement he makes is working with his body. He's perfectly resetting to maximize his pass protection and set up to throw the ball at the same time.
That only comes from a quarterback who understands what he's trying to do. You can luck into completions and luck into positive gains. You don't luck into perfect pocket presence and passing posture against a closing pocket.
As far as intelligence goes for quarterbacks, there is the learned knowledge that anyone can glean from textbooks, diagrams and coaching manuals. Hell, you can learn a lot of it from Madden. When one player goes there, you throw the ball there. When the defence plays this coverage, you can't make this throw but you can make this throw.
It's the arithmetic level of NFL analysis. Most NFL quarterbacks (amazingly not all NFL quarterbacks) can break down the defences at an exceptionally high level. Dan Orlovsky was a horrendous NFL player but he'll break down every single detail of how the coach drew up a play and how the quarterback is supposed to interpret it.
Then there's the other side of intelligence.
What separates the great quarterbacks from the good quarterbacks in this regard is that they can adapt and adjust to what is happening in front of them. It's a proactive, reactive, innate understanding of what to do in each given situation as the play develops. Proactive because you feel out what the defence is doing before the snap. Reactive because you make adjustments in milliseconds on the fly when the play begins. And innate because you can't teach someone how to handle pressure or throw the ball with precision.
You can teach better accuracy. You can't teach a quarterback to understand leverage, timing or anticipation throwing into coverage. So when it comes to younger quarterbacks, we have to look at what they're putting on tape in college. Are they just mechanically following the list of rules they've been fed by their coaches? Is their process a series of "if they do that I do this" equations, or is the quarterback himself feeling out his success?
It's clear that Fields isn't just a medium for his coaching staff through which they execute their offence.
The above play is another scramble where Fields is forced from the pocket by pressure. Before the defender arrived, Fields had reset his feet within the pocket and come off his first read to look over the middle of the field. He was in position to throw until he was forced to run.
Now, that doesn't mean he has a flawless process. But importantly, the things he needs to learn and improve at are closer to the arithmetic than the innate.
As discussed with Joe Burrow previously, it's vital for quarterback prospects to be able to beat blitzes. Now more than ever before, teams are relying on the ball to come out before the pass rush rather than using extra blockers to fend off 5+-man rushes.
Fields appears to be aware of this blitz coming and he has time to release the ball. His problem is he doesn't see an open receiver. He's looking in the wrong spot. The defence gave one-on-one coverage to the isolated receiver at the top of the screen.
Ohio State put that receiver on the narrow side of the field on his own. They purposely isolated him which suggests they were seeking out that specific matchup if it came.
To be fair to Fields, he looks through where the blitzis coming from. The linebacker on the far side of the field disguised his blitz better than those coming from the opposite side, which made him assume there was still help on that side of the field. He needed to see that and adjust quicker, looking to his right rather than his left once he had the ball.
On this play, Fields' tight end comes wide open down the left sideline. He's running a corner route from a tight release while the receiver to that side runs a short curl and the running back goes to the flat. It takes a moment for the tight end to come open because he runs into the space that the outside cornerback vacates.
That cornerback is coming forward to the curl. It's a high-low combination. You take the curl if it's given but throw the ball over the top if the cornerback is too aggressive coming forward.
A half-field read with a three-pronged route combination pulling the defence apart is a simple read for the quarterback. This ball should come out.
But to be fair to Fields, there is some pressure arriving in his face. He may not have actually misread this coverage but he may have just bailed on the pocket too quickly. Regardless, it was a big missed opportunity.
Tyrod Taylor is a great example of a quarterback who had a consistently good process in the pocket but had a tendency to miss opportunities. It wasn't a chronic issue and it was overstated across the national media for obvious reasons. Fields will suffer the same fate in all likelihood but he's starting from a good spot to develop past these issues.
On this Second-and-9, he has the opportunity to hit his crossing route over the middle of the field when the receiver settles in a soft spot. He holds the ball too long and bails on the play because the zone caught him by surprise expecting man.
But even after that initial mistake, there is little panic in Fields. He doesn't force his way sideways into a sack.
He is looking for an opportunity to re-establish his base and throw the ball downfield. The defensive linemen do a good job of working through their blocks to pursue him, eventually forcing him into a throwaway.
Fields had quite a few bad throws that could have been intercepted. There wasn't one repeated factor for his misses. His ball placement is a question mark moving forward. He has to get better with his ball placement if he's going to consistently hit NFL windows. Lamar Jackson was able to do that quickly.
If Fields can too, he'll quickly find success at the next level. If he doesn't, he'll have a prolonged development period but not an insurmountable one.
Importantly, Fields doesn't compound missed opportunities with rash decisions. The tight end running the crossing route on this play is open. But he's not wide open as it looks initially. The defender who was pulled forward initially peels back to pick him up in the back of the endzone.
Had Fields forced this ball after his initial hesitation, he'd potentially be intercepted. That's compounding a bad play by chasing a good play to make an even worse play. He may not read the coverage perfectly on this play but he can compensate with his process in the pocket that allows him to maximize the impact of his athleticism.
This is the type of play that highlights his athleticism and process and serves to offset any potential struggles he'll have as a passer early in his career.
This is the type of play that Lamar Jackson would make.
Comparisons to Jackson are going to be at an all-time high over the next couple of years, but it's impossible not to compare Fields to him. He's not anywhere close to the same level of speed but he's more than fast enough to create big plays. Athletically, he's likely most close to Deshaun Watson.
But unlike Watson, his process is very deliberate. Watson creates big plays in chaos. Jackson creates big plays outside of structure but typically after one decisive move or immediate reaction to pressure. He doesn't run between both flats or invite pressure with negative footwork behind the line of scrimmage.
The above play sees Fields turn back away from an oncoming rusher. His quickness to turn and accelerate away from the defender is exceptional but his timing to make his move is perfect too. Fields has his angles worked out and only runs when it's time to run.
Being a reluctant runner is another aspect of his game that is similar to Jackson. He wants to pass the ball. He runs when he has to. And when he runs, he carries the same mindset that Jackson does.
Despite all the talk about him being skinny and how he was going to get hurt in the NFL, Jackson has played three seasons and been mostly fine. He's taken hits in the pocket but he's also welcomed punishment as a scrambler outside of the pocket. Jackson runs out of bounds at times but will lower his shoulder and try to run through defenders at times.
He has done so to surprising success.
Fields is that same decisive, aggressive decision-maker who doesn't have to run to space. He lowers his shoulder and meets defenders before they can hit him. He's not going to play fullback but this mindset is helpful for Jackson when he runs counter or power designs in the Ravens offence. It will be the same scenario for Fields.
As runners they are similar and as passers, Fields similarly had enough positive throws in college to suggest he could develop into a high-end NFL passer. Jackson is now one of the best passers in the NFL and he has never been a bad passer over his career at the professional level. Fields needs to take that step too but it's all about consistency for him.
He can make every throw he needs to make.
Here we see Fields' subtle, precise footwork that seamlessly sets him up to throw the ball away from the incoming pressure. He moves slightly but it takes away the angle of the edge rusher who had forced himself into the pocket.
Fields comfortably hits his receiver outside the numbers from the far hash.
College hash marks are wider than NFL hash marks and college footballs are thicker than NFL footballs. Both of those details combine to make it tougher to throw deep down the opposite sideline in college than it is in the NFL. That is without considering the quality of NFL defensive backs of course.
This play is a perfect example to showcase the difference between NFL hash mark throws and college hash mark throws. The NFL hash marks are painted on the field and the ball is on the wider college hash mark. Fields purposely places the ball high on his receiver's outside shoulder.
Like Jackson, Fields is capable of making touch throws over defensive backs in his passing lane. He can also diagnose coverages to understand when touch throws are appropriate. He could have thrown the deep curl here but opened the outside option for the touchdown by pushing the ball over the underneath defender.
It's an outstanding throw, not to mention the fact that it was made on the move.
He's also comfortable hitting vertical seam routes, something that is common for play-action heavy offences. You'd assume that Fields will be put in that type of offence based on his skill set and performances in college.
Regardless of where he winds up, Fields has enough high-end throws to justify his selection high in the first round. Whoever takes him will be concerned about his accuracy but that can improve if managed correctly and Fields works at it.
It's hard to argue that Trevor Lawrence is clearly superior to Fields. Both are worthy of going in the top 10 of the draft and there shouldn't be any qualms if Fields somehow leaps ahead to first overall. The NFL appears to have decided already that Lawrence is the top prospect in this year's class.
Of course, we know from last year's draft that the quarterback who goes first isn't necessarily going to be the best quarterback from the class.
The Ravens have embraced Lamar Jackson's skill set in a way that other teams wouldn't have. That doesn't mean Jackson is a running quarterback, it means they developed him from his starting point and developed the offence as his skill set developed. That's just good coaching. Every quarterback needs that.
Like Jackson, Fields might benefit from sitting at the start of his career but there's no reason to presume he can't play from the start of his rookie season. Jackson comparisons are going to be far more popular than they should be moving forward but what teams should take from Jackson is the pathway that the Ravens created for quarterbacks of his type.
Not all of them are going to be as good as Jackson, we'll be lucky if one ever is, but that doesn't mean others can't find sustained success on a similar path.
@QBDataMine
Justin Fields Could be a Star in the NFL
A quarterback's process is how he makes decisions and how his body acts in reaction to the defence on a given play. There are good quarterbacks who have very consistent processes, Tom Brady for example, and good quarterbacks who have very inconsistent processes, Ben Roethlisberger.
It's generally better to have a quarterback who has a consistent process. It's easier for those quarterbacks to repeat their success if they understand their own process but it's also easier to build an offence around them when you know what they're going to do in given situations.
Russell Wilson's inconsistency seeing open receivers and making decisions from within the pocket for example makes him tougher to play with than an average quarterback.
But nobody would take an average quarterback over Russell Wilson.
You're just conceding a level of control and embracing a greater element of chaos when you take on a quarterback with an inconsistent process. Good coaches understand they can't control everything and trying to is a shortcut to failure.
While there are consistent and inconsistent processes, there always needs to be a process. A thought process through which we can clearly see the quarterback determining what to do. We need to be able to understand what the quarterback is trying to do and what he's thinking to evaluate him.
There are far too many quarterback prospects come draft time who don't have a process. They drop back and try to figure things out as they go. If their first receiver is covered, it's time to panic. You can write those guys off straight away.
You can embrace the guys with consistent processes straight away.
Justin Fields has a consistent process. Fields understands what he's trying to do on each play. He's not locking onto his first read because he's frozen by fear in the pocket. He's not moving his feet more than he needs to or turning the wrong direction once he gets the ball. And most importantly, when he moves or breaks the pocket, his eyes stay up as he looks to throw rather than force the run.
For this first play, train your eyes to the top of the screen where Fields' receiver is running an out route. Fields wants him initially but sees the defensive back shuffle his feet to the outside as his receiver reaches the top of his stem. His receiver falls down, so if Fields had thrown the ball or stared him down he'd have invited trouble.
Instead, he had already moved onto his curl route. He didn't throw the ball to his slot receiver as there was a defender setting on the route. His eyes continued to the opposite side of the field. At this point, pressure forced him to abandon the top of his drop.
Fields winds up picking his way through the pressure expertly to advance downfield for a good gain. He never forced the scramble and wasn't panicked by the pressure coming from multiple points.
So now watch this play back again.
Rather than focusing on the receivers or the pass rush, focus exclusively on Fields' feet and his shoulders. Does anything look awkward? Is he ever off balance or out of control? No. Every movement he makes is working with his body. He's perfectly resetting to maximize his pass protection and set up to throw the ball at the same time.
That only comes from a quarterback who understands what he's trying to do. You can luck into completions and luck into positive gains. You don't luck into perfect pocket presence and passing posture against a closing pocket.
As far as intelligence goes for quarterbacks, there is the learned knowledge that anyone can glean from textbooks, diagrams and coaching manuals. Hell, you can learn a lot of it from Madden. When one player goes there, you throw the ball there. When the defence plays this coverage, you can't make this throw but you can make this throw.
It's the arithmetic level of NFL analysis. Most NFL quarterbacks (amazingly not all NFL quarterbacks) can break down the defences at an exceptionally high level. Dan Orlovsky was a horrendous NFL player but he'll break down every single detail of how the coach drew up a play and how the quarterback is supposed to interpret it.
Then there's the other side of intelligence.
What separates the great quarterbacks from the good quarterbacks in this regard is that they can adapt and adjust to what is happening in front of them. It's a proactive, reactive, innate understanding of what to do in each given situation as the play develops. Proactive because you feel out what the defence is doing before the snap. Reactive because you make adjustments in milliseconds on the fly when the play begins. And innate because you can't teach someone how to handle pressure or throw the ball with precision.
You can teach better accuracy. You can't teach a quarterback to understand leverage, timing or anticipation throwing into coverage. So when it comes to younger quarterbacks, we have to look at what they're putting on tape in college. Are they just mechanically following the list of rules they've been fed by their coaches? Is their process a series of "if they do that I do this" equations, or is the quarterback himself feeling out his success?
It's clear that Fields isn't just a medium for his coaching staff through which they execute their offence.
The above play is another scramble where Fields is forced from the pocket by pressure. Before the defender arrived, Fields had reset his feet within the pocket and come off his first read to look over the middle of the field. He was in position to throw until he was forced to run.
Now, that doesn't mean he has a flawless process. But importantly, the things he needs to learn and improve at are closer to the arithmetic than the innate.
As discussed with Joe Burrow previously, it's vital for quarterback prospects to be able to beat blitzes. Now more than ever before, teams are relying on the ball to come out before the pass rush rather than using extra blockers to fend off 5+-man rushes.
Fields appears to be aware of this blitz coming and he has time to release the ball. His problem is he doesn't see an open receiver. He's looking in the wrong spot. The defence gave one-on-one coverage to the isolated receiver at the top of the screen.
Ohio State put that receiver on the narrow side of the field on his own. They purposely isolated him which suggests they were seeking out that specific matchup if it came.
To be fair to Fields, he looks through where the blitzis coming from. The linebacker on the far side of the field disguised his blitz better than those coming from the opposite side, which made him assume there was still help on that side of the field. He needed to see that and adjust quicker, looking to his right rather than his left once he had the ball.
On this play, Fields' tight end comes wide open down the left sideline. He's running a corner route from a tight release while the receiver to that side runs a short curl and the running back goes to the flat. It takes a moment for the tight end to come open because he runs into the space that the outside cornerback vacates.
That cornerback is coming forward to the curl. It's a high-low combination. You take the curl if it's given but throw the ball over the top if the cornerback is too aggressive coming forward.
A half-field read with a three-pronged route combination pulling the defence apart is a simple read for the quarterback. This ball should come out.
But to be fair to Fields, there is some pressure arriving in his face. He may not have actually misread this coverage but he may have just bailed on the pocket too quickly. Regardless, it was a big missed opportunity.
Tyrod Taylor is a great example of a quarterback who had a consistently good process in the pocket but had a tendency to miss opportunities. It wasn't a chronic issue and it was overstated across the national media for obvious reasons. Fields will suffer the same fate in all likelihood but he's starting from a good spot to develop past these issues.
On this Second-and-9, he has the opportunity to hit his crossing route over the middle of the field when the receiver settles in a soft spot. He holds the ball too long and bails on the play because the zone caught him by surprise expecting man.
But even after that initial mistake, there is little panic in Fields. He doesn't force his way sideways into a sack.
He is looking for an opportunity to re-establish his base and throw the ball downfield. The defensive linemen do a good job of working through their blocks to pursue him, eventually forcing him into a throwaway.
Fields had quite a few bad throws that could have been intercepted. There wasn't one repeated factor for his misses. His ball placement is a question mark moving forward. He has to get better with his ball placement if he's going to consistently hit NFL windows. Lamar Jackson was able to do that quickly.
If Fields can too, he'll quickly find success at the next level. If he doesn't, he'll have a prolonged development period but not an insurmountable one.
Importantly, Fields doesn't compound missed opportunities with rash decisions. The tight end running the crossing route on this play is open. But he's not wide open as it looks initially. The defender who was pulled forward initially peels back to pick him up in the back of the endzone.
Had Fields forced this ball after his initial hesitation, he'd potentially be intercepted. That's compounding a bad play by chasing a good play to make an even worse play. He may not read the coverage perfectly on this play but he can compensate with his process in the pocket that allows him to maximize the impact of his athleticism.
This is the type of play that highlights his athleticism and process and serves to offset any potential struggles he'll have as a passer early in his career.
This is the type of play that Lamar Jackson would make.
Comparisons to Jackson are going to be at an all-time high over the next couple of years, but it's impossible not to compare Fields to him. He's not anywhere close to the same level of speed but he's more than fast enough to create big plays. Athletically, he's likely most close to Deshaun Watson.
But unlike Watson, his process is very deliberate. Watson creates big plays in chaos. Jackson creates big plays outside of structure but typically after one decisive move or immediate reaction to pressure. He doesn't run between both flats or invite pressure with negative footwork behind the line of scrimmage.
The above play sees Fields turn back away from an oncoming rusher. His quickness to turn and accelerate away from the defender is exceptional but his timing to make his move is perfect too. Fields has his angles worked out and only runs when it's time to run.
Being a reluctant runner is another aspect of his game that is similar to Jackson. He wants to pass the ball. He runs when he has to. And when he runs, he carries the same mindset that Jackson does.
Despite all the talk about him being skinny and how he was going to get hurt in the NFL, Jackson has played three seasons and been mostly fine. He's taken hits in the pocket but he's also welcomed punishment as a scrambler outside of the pocket. Jackson runs out of bounds at times but will lower his shoulder and try to run through defenders at times.
He has done so to surprising success.
Fields is that same decisive, aggressive decision-maker who doesn't have to run to space. He lowers his shoulder and meets defenders before they can hit him. He's not going to play fullback but this mindset is helpful for Jackson when he runs counter or power designs in the Ravens offence. It will be the same scenario for Fields.
As runners they are similar and as passers, Fields similarly had enough positive throws in college to suggest he could develop into a high-end NFL passer. Jackson is now one of the best passers in the NFL and he has never been a bad passer over his career at the professional level. Fields needs to take that step too but it's all about consistency for him.
He can make every throw he needs to make.
Here we see Fields' subtle, precise footwork that seamlessly sets him up to throw the ball away from the incoming pressure. He moves slightly but it takes away the angle of the edge rusher who had forced himself into the pocket.
Fields comfortably hits his receiver outside the numbers from the far hash.
College hash marks are wider than NFL hash marks and college footballs are thicker than NFL footballs. Both of those details combine to make it tougher to throw deep down the opposite sideline in college than it is in the NFL. That is without considering the quality of NFL defensive backs of course.
This play is a perfect example to showcase the difference between NFL hash mark throws and college hash mark throws. The NFL hash marks are painted on the field and the ball is on the wider college hash mark. Fields purposely places the ball high on his receiver's outside shoulder.
Like Jackson, Fields is capable of making touch throws over defensive backs in his passing lane. He can also diagnose coverages to understand when touch throws are appropriate. He could have thrown the deep curl here but opened the outside option for the touchdown by pushing the ball over the underneath defender.
It's an outstanding throw, not to mention the fact that it was made on the move.
He's also comfortable hitting vertical seam routes, something that is common for play-action heavy offences. You'd assume that Fields will be put in that type of offence based on his skill set and performances in college.
Regardless of where he winds up, Fields has enough high-end throws to justify his selection high in the first round. Whoever takes him will be concerned about his accuracy but that can improve if managed correctly and Fields works at it.
It's hard to argue that Trevor Lawrence is clearly superior to Fields. Both are worthy of going in the top 10 of the draft and there shouldn't be any qualms if Fields somehow leaps ahead to first overall. The NFL appears to have decided already that Lawrence is the top prospect in this year's class.
Of course, we know from last year's draft that the quarterback who goes first isn't necessarily going to be the best quarterback from the class.
The Ravens have embraced Lamar Jackson's skill set in a way that other teams wouldn't have. That doesn't mean Jackson is a running quarterback, it means they developed him from his starting point and developed the offence as his skill set developed. That's just good coaching. Every quarterback needs that.
Like Jackson, Fields might benefit from sitting at the start of his career but there's no reason to presume he can't play from the start of his rookie season. Jackson comparisons are going to be far more popular than they should be moving forward but what teams should take from Jackson is the pathway that the Ravens created for quarterbacks of his type.
Not all of them are going to be as good as Jackson, we'll be lucky if one ever is, but that doesn't mean others can't find sustained success on a similar path.
