Justin Fields - Key Metrics

remydat

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A lot of talk regarding Fields and the other QBs so thought I would focus on a couple of areas that perhaps explains why Nagy is going with Dalton for right now.

1. Time to throw - For all his talent Fields had the longest time to throw in college of the top QB prospects and actually led all players in the preseason in time to throw at 3.50 seconds. This is something to monitor because no good QB has ever had a time to throw that long not even guys like Jackson, Wilson, Allen, or Watson. The highest since PFF has tracked this since 2011 is Wilson in 2012 at 3.35. But the good mobile QBs usually are at 3 seconds. So what this means is that Fields is typically taking about a half second longer than other mobile QBs to read defenses. If you look at the other rookie QBs then Jones is at 2.84, Lance is at 2.74 seconds, Lawrence is at 2.73, Wilson is at 2.61. So he is taking considerably longer than all other rookie QBs to work through progressions. This is preseason and he hasn't played with the 1s as maybe having ARob and Mooney open as his first read lets him get rid of the ball quicker but the point here is, it is something to watch and I have to imagine the coaches would prefer he get down to 3 seconds or so as 3.50 is just historically long.

2. Pressure - Fields was pressured the 6th highest in the preseason at 46.8%. Lawrence was 33%, Lance was 30.2%, Jones was 27.1%, Wilson was 30%. So he has faced way more pressure than the rest. On the bright side, he has led all rookies in passer rating under pressure at 111.6 but not sure that is sustainable over the course of the season if he continues to be pressured half the time. Again, he hasn't played with the 1st string OL but the 1st string OL doesn't look exactly settled. He easily has the worst OL situation of any rookie QB and while the potential for injury has been the focus, the larger problem is the potential for him to pick up bad habits if he loses faith in his OL early.

3. Pressure caused by QB - This is tied to 1 & 2 but PFF also tracks the percentage of pressure the QB is responsible for (taking too long to progress) vs what percentage is on the OL. Again Fields leads the rookie QBs. He was 9th in the preseason in terms of pressure that was deemed to be his fault at 24% with the remaining 76%, the fault of the OL. Lawrence was 14.1%, Jones was 12.5%, while Lance and Wilson was 0%. So not only does Fields have an OL that causes a lot of pressure based on 2 above, he also seems to be responsible for a larger proportion of the pressure against him likely from holding the ball too long as seen in 1 above.

I know Bears fans are giddy and want him in there now but there are differently elements of his game that are concerns at this level. So while I think he can play week 1, I also am not opposed to seeing him get more practice time to improve on his time to throw and allow the OL to settle a bit.
 

hebs

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He either has IT or he doesn't. Literally NO Quarterback will EVER prosper in Chicago unless they have IT. This is because that QB will need IT to overcome all of the decades of disfunction and distrust Chicago fans have in the Bears fielding an elite QB. A QB that is capable of winning despite the staff, team, and God working against him.

Because of this, I say play his ass... If he fails, he was never going to make it anyways.
 

SugarWalls

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A lot of talk regarding Fields and the other QBs so thought I would focus on a couple of areas that perhaps explains why Nagy is going with Dalton for right now.

1. Time to throw - For all his talent Fields had the longest time to throw in college of the top QB prospects and actually led all players in the preseason in time to throw at 3.50 seconds. This is something to monitor because no good QB has ever had a time to throw that long not even guys like Jackson, Wilson, Allen, or Watson. The highest since PFF has tracked this since 2011 is Wilson in 2012 at 3.35. But the good mobile QBs usually are at 3 seconds. So what this means is that Fields is typically taking about a half second longer than other mobile QBs to read defenses. If you look at the other rookie QBs then Jones is at 2.84, Lance is at 2.74 seconds, Lawrence is at 2.73, Wilson is at 2.61. So he is taking considerably longer than all other rookie QBs to work through progressions. This is preseason and he hasn't played with the 1s as maybe having ARob and Mooney open as his first read lets him get rid of the ball quicker but the point here is, it is something to watch and I have to imagine the coaches would prefer he get down to 3 seconds or so as 3.50 is just historically long.

2. Pressure - Fields was pressured the 6th highest in the preseason at 46.8%. Lawrence was 33%, Lance was 30.2%, Jones was 27.1%, Wilson was 30%. So he has faced way more pressure than the rest. On the bright side, he has led all rookies in passer rating under pressure at 111.6 but not sure that is sustainable over the course of the season if he continues to be pressured half the time. Again, he hasn't played with the 1st string OL but the 1st string OL doesn't look exactly settled. He easily has the worst OL situation of any rookie QB and while the potential for injury has been the focus, the larger problem is the potential for him to pick up bad habits if he loses faith in his OL early.

3. Pressure caused by QB - This is tied to 1 & 2 but PFF also tracks the percentage of pressure the QB is responsible for (taking too long to progress) vs what percentage is on the OL. Again Fields leads the rookie QBs. He was 9th in the preseason in terms of pressure that was deemed to be his fault at 24% with the remaining 76%, the fault of the OL. Lawrence was 14.1%, Jones was 12.5%, while Lance and Wilson was 0%. So not only does Fields have an OL that causes a lot of pressure based on 2 above, he also seems to be responsible for a larger proportion of the pressure against him likely from holding the ball too long as seen in 1 above.

I know Bears fans are giddy and want him in there now but there are differently elements of his game that are concerns at this level. So while I think he can play week 1, I also am not opposed to seeing him get more practice time to improve on his time to throw and allow the OL to settle a bit.
How can he have the longest time to throw and also the 6th most pressures?

seems to me we can’t blame his time to throw entirely on his inability to read a defense.

also remember that mahomes has said he he could t read a defense until half way through his second year as a starter (3rd year in the league).
 

ThatGuyRyan

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Where are they with snap count? Seems like those stats are skewed if you're not taking that into considertion
 

modo

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If you watched the games you'd realize Fields was making his own time. Many times the pocket collapsed almost instantly and Fields shifted. Its the only reason Fields was able to do anything. I honestly don't know how they measure ttt but Fields scrambling away from pressure and making a throw is not ttt....
 

remydat

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How can he have the longest time to throw and also the 6th most pressures?

seems to me we can’t blame his time to throw entirely on his inability to read a defense.

also remember that mahomes has said he he could t read a defense until half way through his second year as a starter (3rd year in the league).

That is where 1 & 3 intersect. 24% of the pressure he is facing is self inflicted ie he is holding the ball too long and as a result is getting pressured because of it. Now to be fair there is an element of that that could be his going thru progressions and no one being open but the point is he is pretty much taking over a half second longer than anyone else.
 

napo55

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Fields also was known for holding the ball at OSU. I think starting Dalton is the right move. Let's see how things look a couple of weeks into the season. Fields development and health are more important than starting game one against the best D in the league.
 

remydat

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The time to throw metric is skewed by his ability to move in the pocket or out of the pocket. He also has had the most time to throw during preseason and it is not because the Bears OL has been that awesome.

Yes hence why I looked at the last 10 years of data and the fact is mobile QBs still were on average about a half second faster than Fields.

Now is it possible Fields is the most mobile QB in the history of the NFL? Sure. But the point is he is taking longer than Jackson, Wilson, Allen, Vick, Watson, Mahomes and any other mobile QB you can think of.

Fields also was known for holding the ball at OSU. I think starting Dalton is the right move. Let's see how things look a couple of weeks into the season. Fields development and health are more important than starting game one against the best D in the league.

Correct. It isn't just the preseason data. He has been doing this since college. He may be good enough to still succeed doing so but it is still something to monitor because he is an anomaly in this regard even from other highly mobile QBs.
 

remydat

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Remy, you rely on PFF way too much. I don’t even view what they’re saying about Fields as a negative but damn dude



No, I don't. I did preseason reviews for each one of his games and if you go back to those threads I observed the same thing on a few of his throws. In fact, I believe in each of the 3 reviews I did, I noted that he was holding on to the ball a tick to long. So it just so happens that PFF reinforced what I saw by watching the games. Also, I didn't say it was a negative. I said it was something to monitor and perhaps explains why the Bears want to give him a bit more time. I also concede that some of the TTT may be the result of people not being open.

Long term, the reality is he will always be a QB that holds a ball looking to attack downfield. He just needs to probably shave of a half second from his time to throw to bring it a bit more in line with the other elite mobile QBs. Or perhaps he does turn out to be a truly unique player in that regard relative to other mobile QBs.
 
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remydat

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Also just to clarify. I have been in Fields camp all offseason and actually predicted the trade with the Giants for Fields. My goal here is to provide sober analysis of the areas for improvement. In the end, I have no doubt Fields will eventually be the franchise QB we all want him to be.

If all you want to do is hear how great Fields is then feel free to commiserate with all the other posters that are masturbating to him as this thread is not for you.
 

Payton_34

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I know we've been waiting forever for an elite QB in Chicago, but we need to have the patience to wait a while longer while this thing develops properly or we'll find out the problem is fans running young prospects (coaches too) out of town before they can get in a groove. The Bears aren't going to the SB this year anyway so lets all just chill out, let the coaches do their thing and watch it all develop.
 

TexasBearfan

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Bearly posted a Baldinger Trubisky analysis yesterday and it showed Trubisky letting one go to Arob before he had made his cut.....I haven't seen Fields do that a single time...not saying he can't but he's not there yet
 

wazzupi

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That is where 1 & 3 intersect. 24% of the pressure he is facing is self inflicted ie he is holding the ball too long and as a result is getting pressured because of it. Now to be fair there is an element of that that could be his going thru progressions and no one being open but the point is he is pretty much taking over a half second longer than anyone else.
ya it actually takes time to use your feet to get away from defenders and or gain enough space between you and them and take into account he is trying to get his receivers to get open for him on the fly all this takes time.
 

remydat

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ya it actually takes time to use your feet to get away from defenders and or gain enough space between you and them and take into account he is trying to get his receivers to get open for him on the fly all this takes time.

Yes hence why again I compared to other mobile QBs that also take time and he was still the longest when compared to actual elite mobile QBs.
 

MikeDitkaPolishSausage

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I know Bears fans are giddy and want him in there now but there are differently elements of his game that are concerns at this level. So while I think he can play week 1, I also am not opposed to seeing him get more practice time to improve on his time to throw and allow the OL to settle a bit.
I think Fields has some things to work on, but I don’t see any concerns as of now. The problem with this part of the post is practice time won’t improve any of that. He needs actual game experience and reps to improve reading the defense, throw time, settling with the OL, etc. What the Bears run on scout defense in practice against Fields is not what he will see come Sunday.
 

WestCoastBearsFan

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remy now you’ve done it

BUT DONT YOU KNOW BILL AND EVERY OTHER COACH IS STARTING THEIR ROOKIE
 

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