Looking into 2022..

[Castor76]

Cubs need to land 1 or 2 starting arms in free agency and they in business.

Infield is filling up nicely . . .

2nd base, Nick Madrigal
Short stop, Any of Steager, Correa or Story
3rd base, Pat Wisdom. Dude has 25 homeruns in just 279 at bats. As a full season everyday player he is gonna get 600+ plate appearances. IF he is a late bloomer and figured it out...he can legit become a 40+ homerun player.

I'd take Story off that list because his away splits out of Coors aren't very good. Otherwise, not a bad plan and if the Cubs can get a couple of starters they'll be back in contention by 2023 at the latest.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

You are assuming that Jed will get a green light to invest like that.

If Jed goes down that path, which I seriously doubt will be the case, Tom would have cleared debt to push payroll back to 200M.

My belief is no. Tom will use 2022 to push resource back into debt to catch up on lost revenue from 2020.

120M is what I expect for 2022. Can they add with that? Yes. But Jed tends to buy low sell high in these situations. When payroll goes up to 150+ then I expect a major investment.

The current team is swiss cheese. Not a single hole to fill. One guy doesn't make this team a contender. He becomes wasted resources.

Not to mention guys as listed are not going to hook up with a loser. Why waste their prime on a rebuild.

So nope. Nice to think that way but you are not looking at it from a business sense or a players motivation. Just from a fanboi point of view

A green light to invest in two guys? Why would he need that? Those two would likely not even make them over 100 million in salary.

"Not to mention guys as listed are not going to hook up with a loser. Why waste their prime on a rebuild."

Tell that to Machado, Jon Lester, Bryce Harper, etc.... Sooooo many people sign with the intent that the farm will bear fruit in a year or two.

 

[TL1961]

So invest into the pen. That is hotcakes in July. Teams dine on pen arms

If they do a flip on a rotation arm it is better to go after a pitcher who has has success and it is not due to a velocity drop

Enough said.

What did we get in return for Tepera and Chafin?

 

[CSF77]

What did we get in return for Tepera and Chafin?

Chicago Cubs traded RHP Ryan Tepera to Chicago White Sox for LHP Bailey Horn.

Chicago Cubs traded LHP Andrew Chafin to Oakland Athletics for 1B Greg Deichmann and RHP Daniel Palencia

 

[CSF77]

A green light to invest in two guys? Why would he need that? Those two would likely not even make them over 100 million in salary.

"Not to mention guys as listed are not going to hook up with a loser. Why waste their prime on a rebuild."

Tell that to Machado, Jon Lester, Bryce Harper, etc.... Sooooo many people sign with the intent that the farm will bear fruit in a year or two.

Rodon should get Darvish $$$. Darvish was signed when the team was contending. Lester made more but Bryant Baez and Soler were pending. They had Arietta and Hendricks in hand.


Machado came in as a 3B because Jr was at SS so he was a vet add to a youth base that was there.

That is the key. One team has in place or pending. Not 1 to 2 years out.

Signing both 60M. Puts payroll at 130M and not a contender with a pen that has no stability.

 

[CSF77]

Just using basic common sense. Why would Jed bother evaluating his youth right now? To dump them and reset anyways? What a waste of time. Just toss out crap. Get a bigger pool and move on.

So he is planning on using these guys.

So are they a contender with both of the guys listed? No. Looking at them now they score runs. But the pitching staff is not MLB quality. Staff has issues. Not consistent. The pen needs a hose out and stability added.

That at least makes the team competent. Right now it is incompetent.

But give it a year. Let the first wave get in. The reevaluate.

Dumping into big names is fool's gold right now. It is still a losing product with less payroll to work with when ready. Plus 1-2 years of control are wasted on meaningless baseball.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Just using basic common sense. Why would Jed bother evaluating his youth right now? To dump them and reset anyways? What a waste of time. Just toss out crap. Get a bigger pool and move on.

So he is planning on using these guys.

So are they a contender with both of the guys listed? No. Looking at them now they score runs. But the pitching staff is not MLB quality. Staff has issues. Not consistent. The pen needs a hose out and stability added.

That at least makes the team competent. Right now it is incompetent.

But give it a year. Let the first wave get in. The reevaluate.

Dumping into big names is fool's gold right now. It is still a losing product with less payroll to work with when ready. Plus 1-2 years of control are wasted on meaningless baseball.

By this logic we shouldn't sign anyone and just keep payroll very low and let the kids play.

The problem is that the fans won't allow that and the Ricketts know they need to compete to keep the stands filled.

You can massively front load deals the next 2-3 years so that the Arbitration years of the prospects and the back end year of the next wave of free agents can both be handled.

No one is asking for the Cubs to be division winners next year, just to be around .500 and make it interesting. This will fill the stands and make it watchable again. And you can fill the roster with one year deal guys that we can flip once we get to the trade deadline and decide to go for the playoffs or flip depending on our record.

So we get the best of both worlds, the chance to watch a good team and if it is not a good team we keep stacking the farm with talent.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Think about what we lost and what we can replace with internally for 2022:

Bryant: Wisdom
Baez: Madrigal
Rizzo: Schwindel/Rivas

These 3 currently have better .OPS then our star core. NOt saying it is sustainable but it could last another year.

Kimbrel: Heuer
Chafin: Rodriguez
Tepera: TBD free agent

Heuer is outperforming Kimbrel, Rodriguez is doing great and we can have a competition with these two for closer or go by matchups.

The issue isn't really our relief pitching but our starters. Hence why we need one asap to stabilize it. Outside of Hendricks, and in some sense Mills, we have no one who can reliably go 6 innings to help take pressure off the bullpen (Alzolay maybe as well). So if we need a starter to stabilize it makes sense to get an ACE or close to an ACE, because there is no guarantee guys like Herz or Wicks or Killian will be SP1 or SP2's.

ACE, Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, (competition)

Then we add in a guy like Correa, and we can start to see a really good lineup and a stable rotation for next year. And then all we have to do is wait for the talent to develop and fit guys in that way.

 

[CSF77]

By this logic we shouldn't sign anyone and just keep payroll very low and let the kids play.

The problem is that the fans won't allow that and the Ricketts know they need to compete to keep the stands filled.

You can massively front load deals the next 2-3 years so that the Arbitration years of the prospects and the back end year of the next wave of free agents can both be handled.

No one is asking for the Cubs to be division winners next year, just to be around .500 and make it interesting. This will fill the stands and make it watchable again. And you can fill the roster with one year deal guys that we can flip once we get to the trade deadline and decide to go for the playoffs or flip depending on our record.

So we get the best of both worlds, the chance to watch a good team and if it is not a good team we keep stacking the farm with talent.

He can make a semi competitive team with 120M.

Fix the pen and add Pax. 2nd half they might add Davis and Marquez. Kilian might be on the bus up and down.

If they are competitive then add short term.

They have depth in 50-45 quality now and can afford to flip 1-2 that are not in the plans.

Don't get me wrong. If I felt that payroll is jumping to 180 and they were ready then yes.

With a 120M payroll with questions it is not the right time to go all in.

But yes. If they are planning a 2 year window signing a guy to waste a year of control is dumb.

 

[CSF77]

This is a he way to look at it

8 year deal. 1-2 years wasted. 6 year window of competition.

1 year deal. In it great. Deal to roll with it. Not in it. Great a trade chip.

It is not about quality. It is about contract length.

Jed could in theory go after Pax and Kluber for the rotation and let the rest battle for 2 spots. Rest go into the pen. Then Ian Kennedy. All on a 1 year. Team could get hot and look to bring up Davis and Marquez then into a competitive environment.

Then next year with payroll dropped again and some youth in place then look to add for the next winning window.

Makes more sense.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

You keep using this logic that the money is wasted and then post about spending $120 million and that suddenly isn't wasted.

This is a massive logical hole you have here.

 

[knoxville7]

You keep using this logic that the money is wasted and then post about spending $120 million and that suddenly isn't wasted.

This is a massive logical hole you have here.

it’s his M.O.

if all of a sudden @CSF77 sounded rational, I’d say we need to have the MODS of CCS send a wellness/investigative check to his IP address…I’d venture he’s been kidnapped

 

[CSF77]

it’s his M.O.

if all of a sudden @CSF77 sounded rational, I’d say we need to have the MODS of CCS send a wellness/investigative check to his IP address…I’d venture he’s been kidnapped

You are a idiot.

So nope still here.

 

[knoxville7]

You are a idiot.

So nope still here.

* an

 

[CSF77]

You keep using this logic that the money is wasted and then post about spending $120 million and that suddenly isn't wasted.

This is a massive logical hole you have here.

Time dude.

What is the next window.

Davis most likely is the start. The end 1-2 years after.

So 2023-2029/30.

The last window was

2015-2021. 7 years.

So by your logic. 30-35M on a SS. And 25-30M on a lefty.

SS is young and will aim for Lindor. So we are talking 350M for 10 years. So no Tom Jed has lowballed his own guys. Why would he all of a sudden act like the Cubs are big market.

You have to look at track records with the Cubs under Tom Cheap ass Ricketts.

200M might be as good as it gets.

If you want to bet on it it is fine. Avatar battle.

My call is 3 1 year flips. Payroll at peak 130M.

No long term offer.

 

[Chicagosports89]

* an

Par for the course

 

[knoxville7]

Par for the course

And with a severe handicap lol

 

[CSF77]

Par for the course

What, you on Knox's jockstrap like *an itch.

Yep. Par.

 

[TL1961]

* an

Sense when?

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Time dude.

What is the next window.

Davis most likely is the start. The end 1-2 years after.

So 2023-2029/30.

The last window was

2015-2021. 7 years.

So by your logic. 30-35M on a SS. And 25-30M on a lefty.

SS is young and will aim for Lindor. So we are talking 350M for 10 years. So no Tom Jed has lowballed his own guys. Why would he all of a sudden act like the Cubs are big market.

You have to look at track records with the Cubs under Tom Cheap ass Ricketts.

200M might be as good as it gets.

If you want to bet on it it is fine. Avatar battle.

My call is 3 1 year flips. Payroll at peak 130M.

No long term offer.

If anything holds the Cubs back from spending it will be a QO from other teams that could possibly rob the Cubs of picks and international signing money.

The notion they are cheap is just ignorant. They were over the luxury tax 3 of the last 6 years and only 4 teams were over it as many times. They also signed big contracts with Heyward, Lester and Darvish, that are similar to what I am suggesting.