Matt Garza, Legitimate Number One Starter

[poodski]

Matt Garza, Legitimate Number One Starter | FanGraphs Baseball

The heavier reliance on secondary pitches has certainly benefited his strikeout rate, but according to pitch type linear weights, his fastball was more effective last year than it has ever been per pitch — both BIS and PITCHf/x agree in this respect. Again, forcing hitters to expect a fastball less frequently seems to have had an added benefit even outside of his slider becoming a top notch pitch.

For some reason, Garza was a fastball-heavy pitcher in Tampa Bay, and he was still an effective starter during his days with the Rays. Since moving to Chicago, he’s evolved into a more complete pitcher and is currently reaping the benefits. While it is just one performance, yesterday’s outing is just more evidence that that his breakout campaign last season was no fluke.

 

[Rice Cube]

Now if only he could field better...and bunt/bat better too.

:lol:

First two starts were very promising, would be nice to see it continue so that he's a better trade chip or the Cubs are more inclined to extend him.

 

[poodski]

Now if only he could field better...and bunt/bat better too.

:lol:

First two starts were very promising, would be nice to see it continue so that he's a better trade chip or the Cubs are more inclined to extend him.

As little as its generally believed pitching fielding means I tend to agree. His fielding is atrocious.

At this point I'd be more inclined to extend him. Hes 28, and if we locked him up for a few years in a deal similar to Cain. Hes not as good as Cain and a year older buy maybe something like 5-95 for him.

That gives us a legitimate front line starter well into when we should be competing again. I figure we can compete in 2014 or 2015 so he will be around for at least 3 of those years with this deal, and honestly I dont see any "aces" in our farm.

If Garza can be a legit 1, and Samardjiza can be a very good 3-4 we can get a 2 via FA, and we have some in house people to fill the other two we might be alright at pitching, which I view as pretty weak for our future right now.

I am rambling at this point but if we can extend Garza and Samardjiza can be above average we should be alright once the offensive side fills out. Which I don't see too many weaknesses in.

 

[Rice Cube]

I don't think Garza is going to make that much. I'd top it out at 5 years/$75MM or $80MM at most.

 

[DewsSox79]

I don't think Garza is going to make that much. I'd top it out at 5 years/$75MM or $80MM at most.

agreed. he wont see 95

 

[JosMin]

I don't think Garza is going to make that much. I'd top it out at 5 years/$75MM or $80MM at most.

He'll get John Lackey money, maybe Jered Weaver at best. But, you know.... he actually belongs in the majors, unlike Lackey :lol:

 

[waldo7239117]

Levine said he was looking for 5 year at 65 million. He said that in one of his chats. If that's the case, Team Theo make it happen!

 

[dabynsky]

He ought to get John Danks money (5 years 65 million), but the price is going up if he keeps performing like this.

 

[dabynsky]

Levine said he was looking for 5 year at 65 million. He said that in one of his chats. If that's the case, Team Theo make it happen!

I thought one of the hangups was Garza wanting a NTC.

 

[waldo7239117]

Yeah, that may be exactly the holdout. I think I do remember that too. I see it with Garza as he does not want to be in the trade rumors as much anymore. it makes total sense.

 

[Rice Cube]

I thought one of the hangups was Garza wanting a NTC.

Did they ever say that? I thought Jed Hoyer said they were still mulling it over but haven't actually talked to Garza's agents.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

i think 5/95 would be a regret..unless we see a full year of close to #1 numbers

even then i'm apprehensive

 

[dabynsky]

Did they ever say that? I thought Jed Hoyer said they were still mulling it over but haven't actually talked to Garza's agents.

I don't know if Jed Hoyer or Theo Epstein ever said anything officially about a NTC. I seem to recall a MLB Trade Rumor blurb that Garza wanted one and that Theo/Jed were reluctant to give it. I don't know what their source was for that blurb.

 

[Rice Cube]

I don't know if Jed Hoyer or Theo Epstein ever said anything officially about a NTC. I seem to recall a MLB Trade Rumor blurb that Garza wanted one and that Theo/Jed were reluctant to give it. I don't know what their source was for that blurb.

I think Theo and Jed and even Garza are taking a wait-and-see approach. I don't really recall seeing a NTC blurb but I don't read everything :lol:

Garza has a couple more years and then he'll get the 10-year part of his 10-and-5 rights, but I can see why he'd want the NTC. If NTC is there, then the Cubs can save some $ as a compromise.

 

[poodski]

I hadnt heard he only wanted 5/65. If thats the case you sign it and give him the NTC as well. Kinda silly not to since you should definitely get net value out of that deal.

I still think with Cain getting 5/110 Garza is gonna get quite a bit more than 65. Maybe 95 was high, but I think 65 is quite low.

 

[Rice Cube]

I hadnt heard he only wanted 5/65. If thats the case you sign it and give him the NTC as well. Kinda silly not to since you should definitely get net value out of that deal.

I still think with Cain getting 5/110 Garza is gonna get quite a bit more than 65. Maybe 95 was high, but I think 65 is quite low.

That was the comparable floated by guys like Bruce Levine, although you take anything Levine says with a grain of salt. Garza isn't as good as Cain even though they're the same age. You not only use their last season, but their entire careers so far to determine this. Garza may end up being better, but he won't touch $90MM with that contract, especially not if he wants a NTC.

 

[dabynsky]

The best comparable heading into this season for Matt Garza was John Danks. Granted Danks throws with the other hand, statistically they are two of the most similar players in baseball. The deal Danks got is going to be starting point of negotiations. Garza likely gets more since he is going to sign his deal later into the explosion of the price of extensions in recent months, but Garza is still viewed as a significant step below Matt Cain.

 

[MRubio52]

The best comparable heading into this season for Matt Garza was John Danks. Granted Danks throws with the other hand, statistically they are two of the most similar players in baseball. The deal Danks got is going to be starting point of negotiations. Garza likely gets more since he is going to sign his deal later into the explosion of the price of extensions in recent months, but Garza is still viewed as a significant step below Matt Cain.

Wow, 971 similarity score for Garza and Danks. Never would've made the connection because I felt that Garza struck out more guys, but they are remarkably similar.

 

[poodski]

The best comparable heading into this season for Matt Garza was John Danks. Granted Danks throws with the other hand, statistically they are two of the most similar players in baseball. The deal Danks got is going to be starting point of negotiations. Garza likely gets more since he is going to sign his deal later into the explosion of the price of extensions in recent months, but Garza is still viewed as a significant step below Matt Cain.

I can get behind that except you have to realize that Danks deal was only 8 mil the first year and then 14.25 each other year. The first year was basically buying out his arbitration. Which he got a raise from 6 mil to 8 mil.

Garza is already making 9.5 Mil.

So giving him a 33% raise to buy out the last year would be 12.5 for the first year then lets say 15 each year after that.

Yeah 5/72.50 might be doable.

I still think Cains deal would have brought the contract up a little more but I will be happy if it doesn't.

 

[dabynsky]

Wow, 971 similarity score for Garza and Danks. Never would've made the connection because I felt that Garza struck out more guys, but they are remarkably similar.

A few people much smarter than myself made that connection in articles. I just repeated it since it is remarkable how similar they are in a lot of ways (stats, contract status)

I can get behind that except you have to realize that Danks deal was only 8 mil the first year and then 14.25 each other year. The first year was basically buying out his arbitration. Which he got a raise from 6 mil to 8 mil.

Garza is already making 9.5 Mil.

So giving him a 33% raise to buy out the last year would be 12.5 for the first year then lets say 15 each year after that.

Yeah 5/72.50 might be doable.

I still think Cains deal would have brought the contract up a little more but I will be happy if it doesn't.

I agree that Garza is going to get more because of the factors you mentioned. Garza is already making more than Danks this year and if they extend him 5 years from this season then it will be adding a more expensive free agent year at the end of the extension which would make the price more. Also Garza is starting at a higher price to begin with than Danks, and the price of extending guys has gone up as the market reacts to the enw limits on amateur spending (Cain extension as just one facet of that shift in the market). If they can get a deal under 5/80 that would be a pretty good deal for the Cubs, and perhaps the best option as teams lock up thaeir top of the rotation pitching that was supposedly going to be available this offseason.