Mel Kiper doesn't think Bears can trade out of the top pick

[Hawkeye OG]

Personally, I think if the Bears trade out of #1 it will happen pre-draft. Sometime after the combine, maybe once FA starts. Poles will be a popular person at the combine with alot of GMs bending his ear and if he hears a deal he likes, will take it.

If the draft starts with Bears still at #1, they will take the full 10 minutes and just end up taking Carter/Anderson.

 

[knoxville7]

I ripped mine off after the original post, now frantically trying to tape it back on.

If there’s one thing that’s guaranteed on draft day it’s that a GM will be in love with a QB and reach up to get them. I would be shocked if there isn’t a significant offer for that number one pick.

gorilla glue is what I recommend

 

[MDB111™]

I promise you OP the following cynicism is not directed at you; you're just delivering the message you saw on ESPN, and thank you! With that said, it's unlikely that teams will be sharing their draft plans with Mel Kiper even if he is a self-proclaimed draft expert. I pay no attention to him (or any ther mock draft analyst) as they are usually 100 percent wrong, sometimes embarrassingly so. Nobody has a friggin' clue what the Bears are planning except for the people in Halas Hall.

Personally, I think if the Bears trade out of #1 it will happen pre-draft. Sometime after the combine, maybe once FA starts. Poles will be a popular person at the combine with alot of GMs bending his ear and if he hears a deal he likes, will take it.

If the draft starts with Bears still at #1, they will take the full 10 minutes and just end up taking Carter/Anderson.

If there is a low ball offer, I feel like he still has to take it. If the Colts are offering a swap of picks and a number one next yr and nothing else. Or some other less than stellar offer, in the end Poles has to take that over staying at number one.
Not trading this pick would be egregious and his demise.

 

[Hawkeye OG]

If there is a low ball offer, I feel like he still has to take it. If the Colts are offering a swap of picks and a number one next yr and nothing else. Or some other less than stellar offer, in the end Poles has to take that over staying at number one.
Not trading this pick would be egregious and his demise.

Agreed. Because even at 4, he's going to get Anderson/Carter with Houston/Indy taking a QB most likely.

 

[MDB111™]

Agreed. Because even at 4, he's going to get Anderson/Carter with Houston/Indy taking a QB most likely.

Yup. Even if that deal ends up terrible, you don't take a player at one you absolutely know you can get at 4.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Season isn't even over yet and Mel has come to some conclusions already?

 

[Raskolnikov]

If there is a low ball offer, I feel like he still has to take it. If the Colts are offering a swap of picks and a number one next yr and nothing else. Or some other less than stellar offer, in the end Poles has to take that over staying at number one.
Not trading this pick would be egregious and his demise.

I whole heartedly agree.

Get out of #1 first and I think this draft could see other offers in top 5 to move for Carter/Anderson/Q.Johnson

If you move to 5 you could see two QBs and a running back go...leaving two of those I mentioned.

Houston and Indy will not take the running back.

6 or 7 and getting Carter is probably the very best we could do ..but hell I would love Carter and 34 or 35... Plus something next year?

Or Carter at 1 if necessary might be the scheme fit...I can see why Mel Kiper projects that.

 

[pdxbearsfan]

I love either Anderson or Carter but I’m still selling to the highest bidder and hoping for one in addition.

I see the second one coming off the board between 3 and 7.

I'm liking Tyree Wilson a lot and would not be surprised if he's a better pro than Anderson.

 

[pdxbearsfan]

Is it just me, or does Mel Kiper look like he is Vegas Casino Pit Boss?

More like a car valet.

 

[Bearly]

Season isn't even over yet and Mel has come to some conclusions already?

It’s as silly as thinking it’s better to have the 2nd pick. Mel also said ‘might’ not probably. Teams don’t usually fall in love until the combine and pro days. Mel is just doing his ‘insider’ thing. Anybody want to guess how accurate his current mock is?

@HeHateMe Please supply a beat Mel draft.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Personally, I think if the Bears trade out of #1 it will happen pre-draft. Sometime after the combine, maybe once FA starts. Poles will be a popular person at the combine with alot of GMs bending his ear and if he hears a deal he likes, will take it.

If the draft starts with Bears still at #1, they will take the full 10 minutes and just end up taking Carter/Anderson

Some article came out last year explaining that the closer to the draft the pick is traded(or even on draft day), the more likely there is an egregious overpay.

 

[Bearly]

Some article came out last year explaining that the closer to the draft the pick is traded(or even on draft day), the more likely there is an egregious overpay.

Yup but many occur just before the draft. If it was with Houston, I'd try to stipulate that they name their player. No sweat off their back and gets the line forming for #2.

 

[I Just Want To Read]

If we recoup the value of the Claypool second, and still land Anderson or Carter…I’m happy.

Aim higher

 

[Raskolnikov]

Aim higher

I just think 3 and 34 is the lowest we can drop and guarantee Anderson or Carter who have the sensational production and qualities you look for at the top of draft.

I would not be surprised if Houston took Anderson over a QB, or Indy is a threat if they land Rodgers.

Or if a 3-4 team wants to jump up for Anderson.

If we drop below 3 I'm not sure we can guarantee Carter. 3-7 is my guess unless we take him at 1.

Is there a chance we could plug Anderson in at OLB in a 4-3? Is he ok in coverage? This would allow us to run more 46

 

[nc0gnet0]

I don't think that's really what Kiper meant by that, but I would just remind everyone that it's smokescreen season. Of course the Bears would want people to think they might stay at #1. And of course other teams would want the Bears to think they might not be willing to trade up to #1.

Anyone who thinks the Bears won't have trade-down options is sorely mistaken. The closer we get to the draft, the more GMs will fall in love with particular prospects, some of whom will get in "I HAVE TO HAVE HIM" mode. Those are the GMs you can exploit. Chris Ballard is probably one of those guys. John Schneider and Brad Holmes (#4 and #5) may also end up in that category.

And if even one of those GMs wants to jump, the Texans have to seriously consider not letting it happen. Then AT THE VERY LEAST, it becomes worth it to trade back with *whatever* the Texans are offering, if you're worried about losing your pick at a top D player (b/c the Texans are obviously not going defense).


Long story short, there will be options, and at the very least, the Bears will be able to do a mild trade-back and still get assets and their pick of the litter. Or they can swing for the fences and go big on assets while having fewer high-draft options. Again, there will be choices available to the Bears. They're not staying at #1 if they don't want to.

Brad Holmes is with the Lions, he picks #6, and he is not taking a QB.

 

[nc0gnet0]

Personally, I think if the Bears trade out of #1 it will happen pre-draft. Sometime after the combine, maybe once FA starts. Poles will be a popular person at the combine with alot of GMs bending his ear and if he hears a deal he likes, will take it.

If the draft starts with Bears still at #1, they will take the full 10 minutes and just end up taking Carter/Anderson.

Precisely this, many GM's are not going to want to be held hostage until draft day over a "possible" trade up scenario. This would prevent them from addressing the issue in FA. A GM could easily say to Poles, this is our offer, this is our best offer, and if Poles declines, they instead aquire Jimmy G or Derek Carr in FA. Once that happens, a potential trade partner is gone.

The real key to this scenario is how far down Poles is willing to go, if he still wants a top DT/DE, he can not afford to go any lower than 4-5.

 

[Montucky]

Precisely this, many GM's are not going to want to be held hostage until draft day over a "possible" trade up scenario. This would prevent them from addressing the issue in FA. A M could easily say to Poles, this is our offer, this is our best offer, and if Poles declines, they instead aquire Jimmy G or Derek Carr in FA. One that happens, a potential trade partner is gone.

The real key to this scenario is how far down Poles is willing to go, if he still wants a top DT/DE, he can not afford to go any lower than 4-5.

If the Bears want to go past fourth overall they might as well trade all the way back into the teens. It does not seem like this is a particularly good draft aside from one pass rush prospect and maybe a three technique, and if we have a repeat of last year where like Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder, Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis this class all fail to have good enough workouts to be worth high draft picks the Bears might as well just stay at 1.1 and get the one elite player in this draft.

That or push all your chips in for next year, but by this time next year the coach might be fired and the GM could be on the hot seat.

 

[Hawkeye OG]

Precisely this, many GM's are not going to want to be held hostage until draft day over a "possible" trade up scenario. This would prevent them from addressing the issue in FA. A GM could easily say to Poles, this is our offer, this is our best offer, and if Poles declines, they instead aquire Jimmy G or Derek Carr in FA. Once that happens, a potential trade partner is gone.

The real key to this scenario is how far down Poles is willing to go, if he still wants a top DT/DE, he can not afford to go any lower than 4-5.

Price tag for poles probably goes up once he gets past 4/5. Say LV at 7 or Panthers at 9 are interested, going to take a few more picks. Trading to 4 and still landing Anderson/Carter seems the route to go but if he ends up lower with an extra first in ‘25 or a 2nd rounder they can still grab a good OT top 10. Will be interesting to see how it pans out

 

[Montucky]

If the Bears trade back to fourth and Anderson Jr. is off the board I would be extremely tempted by a Tampa Bay offer of this year's first plus a 2024 and 2025 first. Of course that means there would have to be a player worth that kind of haul, but assuming Arizona is going to give Kyler Murray another run at it that leaves one of the top three quarterbacks available there at four.

Still, the big unknown is whether there will be a third (or even first) quarterback worth a top five pick. Right now I'm not sure.