MLB draft

beckdawg

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Draft starts tomorrow. Placeholder post for that. Starts at 7 eastern tomorrow I should also mention it's just the first 36 picks. The draft continues monday
 

Chicagosports89

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It's sad the cubs are picking all the way down at 21 after getting embarrassed in the wild card rd last year
 

beckdawg

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Wicks has arguably the best changeup in the 2021 draft and his fastball, while not all that hard, has traits that enable it to play at the top of the strike zone, though Wicks hasn't yet worked up there with it. His breaking stuff is mediocre but workable so long as those pitches are located well, which Wicks' general feel for strike-throwing suggests they will be. After the Vanderbilt arms, Wicks is the surest healthy bet to stick in a rotation and move through the minors quickly. If his breaking ball improves, he'll be a mid-rotation starter.

From fangraphs
 

knoxville7

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My favorite teams
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  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. Tennessee Volunteers
Jordan Wicks is the pick

Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale)​

  • FASTBALL
    55
  • CURVEBALL
    45
  • SLIDER
    55
  • CHANGEUP
    65
  • CONTROL
    55
  • OVERALL
    55

really really like the pick
 

CSF77

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Love the pick. Kid looks like a young Tom Glavine.
 

beckdawg

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You know the pick reminds me of a cardinals pick... which is to say a good one usually given the way they draft pitching. And given the scouting directors background with the cards does make sense
 

Zvbxrpl

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The skillset looks amazing on paper and there's nothing but great things in his scouting reports.

But my inner pessimist is annoyed that here's another college arm that's supposed to work his way through the system quicker, but I find myself still waiting on the other ones before him with scouting reports with glowing praise like Jensen, Carraway, Little, and McAvene.

Cubs need pitching quick. May he move faster than his collegiate counterparts of previous drafts.
 

beckdawg

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The skillset looks amazing on paper and there's nothing but great things in his scouting reports.

But my inner pessimist is annoyed that here's another college arm that's supposed to work his way through the system quicker, but I find myself still waiting on the other ones before him with scouting reports with glowing praise like Jensen, Carraway, Little, and McAvene.

Cubs need pitching quick. May he move faster than his collegiate counterparts of previous drafts.
I m ean other than Carraway none of those pitchers were considered quick to the majors types. Jensen needed to develop a third pitch. Little IIRC was 19.
 

Zvbxrpl

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I m ean other than Carraway none of those pitchers were considered quick to the majors types. Jensen needed to develop a third pitch. Little IIRC was 19.
Many scouts believed Jensen needed to fix overstriding and inconsistent arm slot with his durability which led to flat delivery as a starter which made him target practice, but MLB.com's scouting report believed he could 'quickly move as a bullpen piece playing up his power stuff.'

McAvene was a dominant college closer and 2 plus pitch arsenal that scouts said needed a changeup to have a chance to make it as a starter.

Little had command issues but a plus fastball that hit 97 and a power curve. He was also 21 when he was drafted and played at UNC before transferring to State College of Florida.

I'm fully aware that looking for instant gratification in the MLB draft is for fools. I'm aware some kids need more time in the minors than others, and the 'exceptions to the rules' that do come up quickly rarely have a major, immediate impact.

That being said...Jed (and Theo before he left) doesn't/don't exactly have a good track record at drafting pitching. There's a slew of college arms that have come and gone, being otherwise unremarkable when other teams are getting results when they draft pitching.

I want this kid to be what everybody's excited about. I'm also tempering my expectations.
 

CSF77

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Many scouts believed Jensen needed to fix overstriding and inconsistent arm slot with his durability which led to flat delivery as a starter which made him target practice, but MLB.com's scouting report believed he could 'quickly move as a bullpen piece playing up his power stuff.'

McAvene was a dominant college closer and 2 plus pitch arsenal that scouts said needed a changeup to have a chance to make it as a starter.

Little had command issues but a plus fastball that hit 97 and a power curve. He was also 21 when he was drafted and played at UNC before transferring to State College of Florida.

I'm fully aware that looking for instant gratification in the MLB draft is for fools. I'm aware some kids need more time in the minors than others, and the 'exceptions to the rules' that do come up quickly rarely have a major, immediate impact.

That being said...Jed (and Theo before he left) doesn't/don't exactly have a good track record at drafting pitching. There's a slew of college arms that have come and gone, being otherwise unremarkable when other teams are getting results when they draft pitching.

I want this kid to be what everybody's excited about. I'm also tempering my expectations.

Jed has never gotten a arm this highly rated outside of Cease who fell due to TJ.

He was ranked #16 going in.

To add to it the person running the draft now drafted last year only that was a short draft. He picked Howard first last year.

Also

 

CSF77

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I would expect next year at SB and Tenn mid season. At earliest 2023. I believe that there is work to do with his breaking pitches. Right now he is a guy set up to beat up RHP with a inside fastball and a change up that dives. He lack a strong breaking pitch to go after lefties. So that is where the pitch lab comes in.

I could see him in Azl this year and the offseason working on his breaking pitches as his fastball and change up are strong offerings and he has excellent command.

He could come up fast but I would rather get a guy with 4 MLB offerings vs another 2 pitch pitcher.
 

CSF77

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Jensen is pretty good at SB right now. .184 BAA. 1.03 WHIP.

17 walks and 27 hits in 43 innings. That is called being a bit nasty. His ERA is meh so there is that.

But going in he has upside.

Kohl Franklin has not pitched this year and is a bit higher rated.

As far as high draft picks Mcloyd ran those drafts. He never went above #27 with a pitcher. This draft was ran by Dan Kantrovitz. He ran last years draft also.

So this is a new voice going in and he is not afraid to draft a arm. And with the results from the lab taking rejects like Nance and Leeper and making them good enough to produce at the MLB level. Fixing Maples. Getting Thompson and Steel MLB ready. Teaching Alzolay his slider and so on.

The Cubs are in a very new place right now and I wouldn't put anything into the history. New people running the show and the results have been seen in the pen this year.

All they really need is raw talent right now.
 

Zvbxrpl

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The Cubs are in a very new place right now and I wouldn't put anything into the history. New people running the show and the results have been seen in the pen this year.
Fair, but one can't help BUT look at history since 2012 when the braintrust got their 1st draft (no, I'm not complaining about the great hitting/defense drafted and their results), who's been a successful development at pitcher? College pitcher--which was my original specification? A lot of them have come and gone and the answer is sadly either Rob Zastrysny or James Norwood--which isn't exactly saying very much. Honorable mentions Corey Abbot, who's target practice in Toronto and Alex Lange, the same in Detroit.

Cease is about all there is/was at pure talent at pitching, and he wasn't a 1st rounder (scouts also loved Justin Steele from that draft till he got hurt). Kohl Franklin I too saw with a higher grade from most scouts, but I'm not counting him due to him being drafted out of high school.

Hope Kantrovitz flips the script on the Jake Stinetts, Keegan Thompsons, Chris Clark's, Thomas Hatch's Tyson Millers, etc. etc . Really do. Wouldn't mind the timeline for Wicks you proposed either.

Jensen is pretty good at SB right now. .184 BAA. 1.03 WHIP.
A+ ball. You'd kind of hope a guy (again, college arm) now going on over 2 years in the minors would be past A+ ball, especially a college arm with the stuff he had coming out of Fresno State or wherever they drafted him from. But--he's being stretched as a starter it appears so the bullpen route isn't necessary.
 

CSF77

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Fair, but one can't help BUT look at history since 2012 when the braintrust got their 1st draft (no, I'm not complaining about the great hitting/defense drafted and their results), who's been a successful development at pitcher? College pitcher--which was my original specification? A lot of them have come and gone and the answer is sadly either Rob Zastrysny or James Norwood--which isn't exactly saying very much. Honorable mentions Corey Abbot, who's target practice in Toronto and Alex Lange, the same in Detroit.

Cease is about all there is/was at pure talent at pitching, and he wasn't a 1st rounder (scouts also loved Justin Steele from that draft till he got hurt). Kohl Franklin I too saw with a higher grade from most scouts, but I'm not counting him due to him being drafted out of high school.

Hope Kantrovitz flips the script on the Jake Stinetts, Keegan Thompsons, Chris Clark's, Thomas Hatch's Tyson Millers, etc. etc . Really do. Wouldn't mind the timeline for Wicks you proposed either.


A+ ball. You'd kind of hope a guy (again, college arm) now going on over 2 years in the minors would be past A+ ball, especially a college arm with the stuff he had coming out of Fresno State or wherever they drafted him from. But--he's being stretched as a starter it appears so the bullpen route isn't necessary.
Most pitchers didn't throw a pitch last year in the minors.

2019 he pitched at Eugene to finish the year.
2020 was a shut down.
2021 he started at high A. Which is normal for college arms in their first full year.

So don't make a argument with out using context. COVID shut down the minors.
 

CSF77

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On the other part.

Yes they sucked at drafting early on. But if you take the time to read the article 2019 was when a restructuring happened in the front office. That is when they started the pitching Lab.

Jed and Theo just run the show. They saw a lacking and addressed it. The result was the best bull pen with used parts.

Let's be real for a second here. Really look at the Cubs pen. Who stands out as a super talented arm? Kimbrel who was broken and now fixed. The rest? Used parts for the most part that are performing over expectations.

A rotation that hoovers around 90 MPH.

Ya I would say it is fair to say that talent wise the Cubs have 35-45 Grade arms for a staff. Kimbrel a 55 and Alzolay a 50.

But they led in pen ERA. The team kept in 1st for a while?

You filter in 45-55 grade arms into that staff?

So pointing to 2012-18 is a poor argument. If they did nothing then it applies.
 

Zvbxrpl

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Let's be real for a second here. Really look at the Cubs pen. Who stands out as a super talented arm? Kimbrel who was broken and now fixed. The rest? Used parts for the most part that are performing over expectations.
And how exactly did the pen come to be?

The 'throw buckets of shit at the wall and hope something sticks' approach to drafting pitchers, which for the better part of the last decade has been the approach sucks and isn't how it happened.

The cubs went dumpster diving for used parts and the stars aligned this year thus far. How many of them are drafted arms? Oh, I forgot--the present success of the bullpen has nothing to do with drafting college arms though, unless we talk about how a gross lack of drafted players are contributing to said bullpen--but 'pointing out 2012-2018 is a bad argument' when results show that isn't a bad argument at all, just a simple observation of this team being unable to draft college arms (especially when other teams have found guys) that you're trying to deflect away from.

Has nothing to do with the context of how the cubs have minimal/near laughable results at drafting pitching, especially college arms. I also never asked to have a super talented arm from the draft. I'm not naive to think a super talented arm is one that makes it to the mid-late 20s or end of the 1st round without some major baggage/issues.

I asked for results, but instead, I get you telling me to look at context before shifting the goalposts to deflect away from the thought of how drafting college pitching since 2012 has not gone well at all for this team. And there's a lot of early draft picks (rounds 1-5) on college pitching that have missed.

It's okay to say drafting pitching overall for this franchise under Jed/McLoud/THeo has been mostly a failure. Not 100%, because as I mentioned a couple of guys did make the majors and stick with the team for a year or two, but results-wise it's sorely lacking.
 

Chicagosports89

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And how exactly did the pen come to be?

The 'throw buckets of shit at the wall and hope something sticks' approach to drafting pitchers, which for the better part of the last decade has been the approach sucks and isn't how it happened.

The cubs went dumpster diving for used parts and the stars aligned this year thus far. How many of them are drafted arms? Oh, I forgot--the present success of the bullpen has nothing to do with drafting college arms though, unless we talk about how a gross lack of drafted players are contributing to said bullpen--but 'pointing out 2012-2018 is a bad argument' when results show that isn't a bad argument at all, just a simple observation of this team being unable to draft college arms (especially when other teams have found guys) that you're trying to deflect away from.

Has nothing to do with the context of how the cubs have minimal/near laughable results at drafting pitching, especially college arms. I also never asked to have a super talented arm from the draft. I'm not naive to think a super talented arm is one that makes it to the mid-late 20s or end of the 1st round without some major baggage/issues.

I asked for results, but instead, I get you telling me to look at context before shifting the goalposts to deflect away from the thought of how drafting college pitching since 2012 has not gone well at all for this team. And there's a lot of early draft picks (rounds 1-5) on college pitching that have missed.

It's okay to say drafting pitching overall for this franchise under Jed/McLoud/THeo has been mostly a failure. Not 100%, because as I mentioned a couple of guys did make the majors and stick with the team for a year or two, but results-wise it's sorely lacking.
He loves to reference the pitching lab and this bullpen, but im not sure how much impact it could've had. The main guys are Chafin, Tepera, Winkler, Kimbrel. They've mainly been on the MLB roster over the last year or two or injured so not sure this pitching lab has an impact on them. The only guys who've made some impact on the pen who may have been helped by this were maybe Thompson and Steele. The FO just managed to piece together the right guys dumpster diving.

@CSF77 manages to always take the Homer stance on anything cubs, which is okay but I've just come to realize I'm not always going to agree with his take
 

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