bearsfan1977
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So I am reading a lot of doom and gloom in multiple threads regarding the Bears' cap situation this year. And it is indeed limited. But that got me thinking about a few things: what are our positions of need and how do the current contracts roll into 2021. What I found was truly interesting. I believe there are 3 key positions of need on this roster. They are: QB (obviously), TE, and OT. FA moves coupled with contracts make it clear those players will remain in 2020, but all can be released in 2021 with minimal cap implications. Here are my thoughts and how the numbers may affect the picks in this year's draft. Numbers are from OverTheCap.
2021 Total Liabilities: $194, 935, 546
2021 Projected Salary Cap: $215,000,000
2021 Cap Room: $20,064,454
QB
Pace will draft a QB either this year or next year. Neither Mitch nor Foles is the long-term answer. Unless Trubs makes a miraculous turnaround, he can be released after 2020 with no negative cap implications. As for Foles, if he does not get a lot of playing time or performs horribly, he can void his contract and the Bears will incur zero cap hit (fellow posters-please correct me if I am wrong on this point, but that is reflective of the information I am reading). Pace and Nagy have their eyes n a young QB to draft either this year or in 2021.
TE
Ah, the infamous Jimmy Graham signing. This tells me that Pace believes what most of us already know: this TE draft class is very weak to say the least. Graham was brought in to stabilize the position for a year. Whether that works out or not remains to be seen. I do not believe a TE will be drafted this year high, if at all. Both Burton and Graham can be released after this season with minimal cap hits. As for Burton, he is set to make $8,850,000 in 2021, and if cut will incur a dead cap of $1,750,000 and a cap savings of $7,100,000. As for Graham, he is set to make $10,000,000 in 2021, with a dead cap of $3,000,000 and a cap savings of $7,000,000. Next year's draft may be stronger for TEs, and the following is a list of TEs who will hit FA next year:
-George Kittle, SF (if not extended, then they are morons)
-Gerald Everett, LAR
-OJ Howard, TB (available if 5th year option not used)
-Evan Engram, NYG (available if 5th year option not used)
David Njouku, CLE (available if 5th year option not used)
OT
Leno and Massie were pretty awful last year. Neither are going anywhere this year due to how their contracts are struggled. Both are mediocre, and I am sick of seeing mediocrity at the T position. The team can move on from both of them with minimal cap hit after this season. Leno is set to make $11,300,000 in 2021, with $5,100,000 in dead money and $6,200,000 in cap savings if released. As for Massie, he will make $9,300,000 in 2021, with a $3,900,000 dead cap and $5,400,000 in cap savings if released.
I think pace will draft a OT in the 2nd this year to replace one of them next year, or this year if play continues to be bad from either Leno or Massie. He would do well to sign another in FA next year or draft another one high in next year's draft. The Leno/Massie era needs to end. Here are some of the Ts who are set to be FAs in 2021:
-Ronnie Stanley, BAL
-Laremy Tunsil, HOU
-Taylor Decker, DET
-David Sharpe, LVR
-Dion Dawkins, BUF
-Taylor Moton, CAR
If Foles, Leno, Massie, Graham, and Burton are released after this season, it would result in $19,500,000 in cap savings. That would create total cap space for the 2021 offseason of around $39,564,454.
So, entering into the 2021 offseason, many of our core payers will be under contract, and the front office will have some room to acquire some FAs, and of course draft good talent in the draft to fill these 3 key positions.
OT: draft this year & draft or FA next year
TE: draft next year and FA next year
T: draft this year and draft or FA next year.
This Year's Draft
Based on the above, here is what I think a good draft class would look like. All credit to Windy for the trade: Bears trade pick 2(50) to SEA for 2(64), 3(101), and 4 (144).
Round 2(43): Jalen Hurts, QB, OK, 6'1", 222 lbs, 4.59 40-yard dash
Pace needs to explore every option at the QB position. Neither Trubs nor Foles will be the long-term answer IMO. Hurts is a great athlete, and has the arm strength to make all of the throws. I think he would thrive in Nagy's system. People will criticize his ability to quickly scan the field, and that's fair. But he's a winner. A true leader, according to all sources. He has something that Trubs didn't seem to have: the confidence. His willingness to have the ball on the biggest stage under the brightest lights. That mentality can't be taught. The few weaknesses in his game can be. He comes in next year as the starter.
Round 2(64): Isaiah Wilson, T, UGA, 6'6", 350 lbs, 35 1/2 " arms
This dude is a monster. Will turn 21 years old a month before the draft and has 2 seasons under his belt at UGA at RT. He thrives when asked to bully defenders. An impressive combo of size, mobility and power. His technique needs polish, and needs to refine the smaller details when tasked to mirror defenders. Always brings tenacity and reports are that he is hard worker and excellent teammate. Scouting report says he would thrive in the kind of WCO KC employs. At worst, he replaces Massie next year. I believe he would replace Massie this year, or even slide into RG for this season if that position isn't solidified. Underrated T prospect who will have a better pro career than a few other Tackles mentioned in the 2nd round range.
Round 3(101): Brandon Aiyuk, ASU, 6/0", 205 lbs, 4.5 40-yard dash
I almost mocked a DB here, but this offense needs an infusion of talent and this a crazy deep draft for WRs. Aiyuk plays faster on the field than his timed runs, and his YAC ability is crazy. 65 catches, 1192 yards and 8 TDs last season. Also one of the top kick and punt returners in college. With Miller's shoulder issues always pestering, he provides the Bears an ascending WR prospect who can step in for Miller should he go down again. The deep class may push Aiyuk to round 3, when in other years he'd be a round 2 lock. If he is available, the Bears should pounce.
Round 4(144): Antonio Gibson, RB/WR, Memphis, 6'0", 228 lbs, 4.39 40-yard dash
More offense. Meet Tarik Cohen's replacement if the Bears decide to move on after this season. He is bigger, faster, and has better hands than Cohen. He is my sleeper of the entire draft and I think he can be dynamic in this offense. I believe he becomes RB # 2 after the first week of TC (if it even takes place). He is excellent at his role of being a pass-catcher out of the backfield. He has limited production on the ground at Memphis, but I believe that is due to their scheme and the other RB who he shared carries with. He still averaged over 11 yards per carry on the ground. He is big enough to churn out yards between the Tackles, and, like Cohen, he is fast enough to run sweeps and attack creases as they develop. Big-play waiting to happen every time he touches the ball and would be an absolute steal at this point in the draft.
Round 5(163): Antoine Brooks Jr., S, Maryland, 5'11", 220 lbs, 4.64 40-yard dash
Developmental traits based prospect. 87 tackles, 8.5 for loss, 1 INT, 5 PBUs in his senior season. He's a hitter who likes to do damage near the LOS. Nice box safety who has added value on special teams. Should compete with Deon Bush for the starting spot, but at worst provides very good depth at a position that needs it.
Round 6(196): Jon Runyan, T, Michigan, 6'4", 306 lbs
Adequate yet average athleticism that will allow him to fit into a variety of schemes but not excel at any. Played Tackle, but projected to slide inside to G at the next level. Nice backup swing T or G with smarts and grit from a college program that Juan Castillo has ties to.
Round 6(200): Logan Wilson, LB, Wyoming, 6'2", 241 lbs, 4.63 40-yard dash
Have no idea where Wilson will get picked, but if available here, it would be a nice pick Reminds me of Kwiat. Throwback LB who loves to hit but has struggles in coverage situations due to athletic limitations. Nice backup to Trevathan and Roquan who can step in if needed if one of them goes down. Also, I am not comfortable with the depth currently behind them at the ILB spot.
Round 7(233): Michael Divinity, OLB, LSU, 6'2", 242 lbs
Character and injury concerns, but a late-round flier on a possible depth piece at the OLB spot.
Final Thoughts
I am well-aware that OG is a need as it currently stands. I was going back and forth between hurts and Cesar Ruiz, C out of Michigan. 6'3", 307 lbs. Plays violent and has the mental awareness to play the C position. We need some nastiness up front, and Ruiz can provide that. Also, Juan Castillo has ties to Michigan, so he probably has a lot of information on Ruiz. Hurts or Ruiz?
Alex Bars stayed put last season after getting a chance to make the Pats roster. I beleive the staff thinks highly of him, and would not be surprised if he is the starting OG in Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season.
2021 Total Liabilities: $194, 935, 546
2021 Projected Salary Cap: $215,000,000
2021 Cap Room: $20,064,454
QB
Pace will draft a QB either this year or next year. Neither Mitch nor Foles is the long-term answer. Unless Trubs makes a miraculous turnaround, he can be released after 2020 with no negative cap implications. As for Foles, if he does not get a lot of playing time or performs horribly, he can void his contract and the Bears will incur zero cap hit (fellow posters-please correct me if I am wrong on this point, but that is reflective of the information I am reading). Pace and Nagy have their eyes n a young QB to draft either this year or in 2021.
TE
Ah, the infamous Jimmy Graham signing. This tells me that Pace believes what most of us already know: this TE draft class is very weak to say the least. Graham was brought in to stabilize the position for a year. Whether that works out or not remains to be seen. I do not believe a TE will be drafted this year high, if at all. Both Burton and Graham can be released after this season with minimal cap hits. As for Burton, he is set to make $8,850,000 in 2021, and if cut will incur a dead cap of $1,750,000 and a cap savings of $7,100,000. As for Graham, he is set to make $10,000,000 in 2021, with a dead cap of $3,000,000 and a cap savings of $7,000,000. Next year's draft may be stronger for TEs, and the following is a list of TEs who will hit FA next year:
-George Kittle, SF (if not extended, then they are morons)
-Gerald Everett, LAR
-OJ Howard, TB (available if 5th year option not used)
-Evan Engram, NYG (available if 5th year option not used)
David Njouku, CLE (available if 5th year option not used)
OT
Leno and Massie were pretty awful last year. Neither are going anywhere this year due to how their contracts are struggled. Both are mediocre, and I am sick of seeing mediocrity at the T position. The team can move on from both of them with minimal cap hit after this season. Leno is set to make $11,300,000 in 2021, with $5,100,000 in dead money and $6,200,000 in cap savings if released. As for Massie, he will make $9,300,000 in 2021, with a $3,900,000 dead cap and $5,400,000 in cap savings if released.
I think pace will draft a OT in the 2nd this year to replace one of them next year, or this year if play continues to be bad from either Leno or Massie. He would do well to sign another in FA next year or draft another one high in next year's draft. The Leno/Massie era needs to end. Here are some of the Ts who are set to be FAs in 2021:
-Ronnie Stanley, BAL
-Laremy Tunsil, HOU
-Taylor Decker, DET
-David Sharpe, LVR
-Dion Dawkins, BUF
-Taylor Moton, CAR
If Foles, Leno, Massie, Graham, and Burton are released after this season, it would result in $19,500,000 in cap savings. That would create total cap space for the 2021 offseason of around $39,564,454.
So, entering into the 2021 offseason, many of our core payers will be under contract, and the front office will have some room to acquire some FAs, and of course draft good talent in the draft to fill these 3 key positions.
OT: draft this year & draft or FA next year
TE: draft next year and FA next year
T: draft this year and draft or FA next year.
This Year's Draft
Based on the above, here is what I think a good draft class would look like. All credit to Windy for the trade: Bears trade pick 2(50) to SEA for 2(64), 3(101), and 4 (144).
Round 2(43): Jalen Hurts, QB, OK, 6'1", 222 lbs, 4.59 40-yard dash
Pace needs to explore every option at the QB position. Neither Trubs nor Foles will be the long-term answer IMO. Hurts is a great athlete, and has the arm strength to make all of the throws. I think he would thrive in Nagy's system. People will criticize his ability to quickly scan the field, and that's fair. But he's a winner. A true leader, according to all sources. He has something that Trubs didn't seem to have: the confidence. His willingness to have the ball on the biggest stage under the brightest lights. That mentality can't be taught. The few weaknesses in his game can be. He comes in next year as the starter.
Round 2(64): Isaiah Wilson, T, UGA, 6'6", 350 lbs, 35 1/2 " arms
This dude is a monster. Will turn 21 years old a month before the draft and has 2 seasons under his belt at UGA at RT. He thrives when asked to bully defenders. An impressive combo of size, mobility and power. His technique needs polish, and needs to refine the smaller details when tasked to mirror defenders. Always brings tenacity and reports are that he is hard worker and excellent teammate. Scouting report says he would thrive in the kind of WCO KC employs. At worst, he replaces Massie next year. I believe he would replace Massie this year, or even slide into RG for this season if that position isn't solidified. Underrated T prospect who will have a better pro career than a few other Tackles mentioned in the 2nd round range.
Round 3(101): Brandon Aiyuk, ASU, 6/0", 205 lbs, 4.5 40-yard dash
I almost mocked a DB here, but this offense needs an infusion of talent and this a crazy deep draft for WRs. Aiyuk plays faster on the field than his timed runs, and his YAC ability is crazy. 65 catches, 1192 yards and 8 TDs last season. Also one of the top kick and punt returners in college. With Miller's shoulder issues always pestering, he provides the Bears an ascending WR prospect who can step in for Miller should he go down again. The deep class may push Aiyuk to round 3, when in other years he'd be a round 2 lock. If he is available, the Bears should pounce.
Round 4(144): Antonio Gibson, RB/WR, Memphis, 6'0", 228 lbs, 4.39 40-yard dash
More offense. Meet Tarik Cohen's replacement if the Bears decide to move on after this season. He is bigger, faster, and has better hands than Cohen. He is my sleeper of the entire draft and I think he can be dynamic in this offense. I believe he becomes RB # 2 after the first week of TC (if it even takes place). He is excellent at his role of being a pass-catcher out of the backfield. He has limited production on the ground at Memphis, but I believe that is due to their scheme and the other RB who he shared carries with. He still averaged over 11 yards per carry on the ground. He is big enough to churn out yards between the Tackles, and, like Cohen, he is fast enough to run sweeps and attack creases as they develop. Big-play waiting to happen every time he touches the ball and would be an absolute steal at this point in the draft.
Round 5(163): Antoine Brooks Jr., S, Maryland, 5'11", 220 lbs, 4.64 40-yard dash
Developmental traits based prospect. 87 tackles, 8.5 for loss, 1 INT, 5 PBUs in his senior season. He's a hitter who likes to do damage near the LOS. Nice box safety who has added value on special teams. Should compete with Deon Bush for the starting spot, but at worst provides very good depth at a position that needs it.
Round 6(196): Jon Runyan, T, Michigan, 6'4", 306 lbs
Adequate yet average athleticism that will allow him to fit into a variety of schemes but not excel at any. Played Tackle, but projected to slide inside to G at the next level. Nice backup swing T or G with smarts and grit from a college program that Juan Castillo has ties to.
Round 6(200): Logan Wilson, LB, Wyoming, 6'2", 241 lbs, 4.63 40-yard dash
Have no idea where Wilson will get picked, but if available here, it would be a nice pick Reminds me of Kwiat. Throwback LB who loves to hit but has struggles in coverage situations due to athletic limitations. Nice backup to Trevathan and Roquan who can step in if needed if one of them goes down. Also, I am not comfortable with the depth currently behind them at the ILB spot.
Round 7(233): Michael Divinity, OLB, LSU, 6'2", 242 lbs
Character and injury concerns, but a late-round flier on a possible depth piece at the OLB spot.
Final Thoughts
I am well-aware that OG is a need as it currently stands. I was going back and forth between hurts and Cesar Ruiz, C out of Michigan. 6'3", 307 lbs. Plays violent and has the mental awareness to play the C position. We need some nastiness up front, and Ruiz can provide that. Also, Juan Castillo has ties to Michigan, so he probably has a lot of information on Ruiz. Hurts or Ruiz?
Alex Bars stayed put last season after getting a chance to make the Pats roster. I beleive the staff thinks highly of him, and would not be surprised if he is the starting OG in Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season.
