My analysis of the draft: valuing the trades and the first 3 picks

dentfan

No gods! No Masters!
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First off, this draft was all about filling the holes and getting the pieces in place to transition to a new system on both sides of the ball. We have to remember, as Coach T says, “The system is the star.”

Yes, we didn’t get a WR in the 2nd. But, if the system can work and the running game can move, PA will open up the passing game. The system is a Moorehouse/Shanahan hybrid that we can see in GB and SF. Miami is also transitioning into this system, so we should use them as a measure of what Poles did.

Here’s a nice page on Reddit that has all of the draft info in one place with Brugler’s the Beast analysis.

Let’s begin with analyzing how well Poles fleeced the league for draft picks. He went with twofers across the board.


Team Picks AcquiredValueWe gaveValuePoles
LAC 7-254
7-255
22023 6th1
(This year’s pick is valued as the end of next year’s draft, but the LAC may think we’ll suck, and it’ll be a top pick in the round which’d make it a value of 7.)
Win by 1 point
Texans 5-166 = 9
6-207 = 4
135-15013Break even
Bills 5-168
6-203
8
5
5-14813Break even
Bengals 5-174
7-226
7
3
5-1669Wins by 1 point
Final Evaluation: Poles didn’t just acquire 8 picks, but he also acquired 2 additional points in value. Yes, there is a chance that there’s a discrepancy in the value next year’s 6th rounder, but, at this moment, the value is 1, so it still counts as a win. Poles almost doubled his picks and did so while maintaining and improving upon the value he began with.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Big Poles is playing Spades. He set up the draft to take starters right away and, knowing he has to build a system on both sides of the ball, not to mention ST, he maximized value. He took tough Books early and then cleaned up with his low Spades towards the end. He took a weak hand with low spades and walked out with 11 books. My man!

So, let’s look at the draft picks themselves:

Earlier, I wrote some analysis pieces trying to break down what the new O will look like and projecting what types of players that we will need.

39.) Kyle Gordon:

My man Swifty has a quick breakdown here.

Let me begin by getting a little meta with the schadenfreude. Minnesota really wanted a CB. They got shafted in round 1 and ended up trading back because their dude wasn’t there. At 42, they took a CB. I have every reason to believe that we took their guy right here. Ah, not only did we fill a need with a top tier round 1 talent, we got to fuck over the Vikings. Nice job, Big Poles.

Yes, we signed some dudes to play CB, and we have Graham, but getting a talent like Gordon is elite. Greg Gabriel compared him to Vasher, an archetype I was saying we needed to pair with our “Peanut” in JJ. Yes, there’s a chance he’s like Mike Golic, a dude that rode another dude’s success and looked like an all-star, but you can’t watch Graham and not see the skills pop. He allows us to leave JJ outside permanently and Gordon can move inside when Flus unleashes his blitz packages on 3rd down.

David Ojabo and Boye Mafe were still on the board and were very intriguing possibilities that may not contribute right away this year. There were a bunch of WR on the board here, but most of the board didn’t melt down here.

48.) Jaquan Brisker:

The steal of the draft! Don’t worry, he’ll tell you that.

A lot of people got on EJax for his tackling and playing out of position. I can’t absolve him for everything that’s happened to him or for everything he’s done the past couple of seasons, but he has been playing out of position. I’m not sure if it was the system or the coaching, but the Bears wanted their Safeties to be interchangeable. Instead of having a hitter and mover, SS and FS, respectively, they wanted their guys to be able to do either. This took away what Eddie does best, fly and make plays. It highlighted what he doesn’t do well: hit, wrap, tackle.

Now, the first thing that I like about Brisker is that he allows us to hide everything we do under a Tampa shell. There’s nothing to keep the Bears from always showing a Tampa and then he steps into a single high. We can always hide the blitz, because he doesn’t have to show a read. The static shell he can allow us to play will allow for us to be able to always hide the actual coverage.

Here’s some nice tape and a breakdown.

So, the issue comes down to should we have gone Offense with a WR or OL instead? Well, we got a starter that will allow for us to really do a lot of damage and ballhawk. So, though Skyy Moore and George Pickens were still on the board, Poles picked up a piece that will force multiply the Defense.

71) Velus Jones, Jr.:



Holy shit! This is where the shit hits the fan. So, the type of WR that most people want is a tall X who we all imagine running down the sidelines catching a bomb from Fields a la Pierce or Pickens. Well, both of those dudes were gone. This is where the grumbling goes, because people are saying we should have gotten one of them in the 2nd, instead of a starting caliber S.

I veered towards Skyy Moore, a player that, should I have been a coach at Western Michigan, would have put his ass right at RB and watched him blow up. All credit to those coaches there for putting him at WR first, and making him one of the top picks in the draft, eventually going to KC. So, what I wanted was a sticky-handed WR that can excel with the ball in his hand; destroy underneath; win with carries on sweeps and pitch outs; and can always threaten to go deep on a break route like an inside short Drag Post.

Well, Poles comped VJJ to Tyreek Hill. KC drafted Skyy Moore to try to replace the hole created by Hill’s departure. VJJ is a bigger version of Tyreek Hill. Oh, why am I making that comparison? I’m just parroting what Poles said. Yup. And for anybody that wonders what role Poles played in drafting Tyreek Hill, he was the director of college scouting! So, don’t tell me this motherfucker doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

VJJ has played RB. He’s big. He’s solid. He has no injury history. Now, some guys are like, yeah, he also has no route tree. I’m like big fucking deal. He only needs three routes, right now. We can feed him the ball.

Let’s talk about the Deebo role for a second. Why was Deebo so effective? It’s because it allowed for San Fran to force the D into a 7 DB set and then effectively run on it. With VJJ, we have the ability to come out in 4 or 5 wide and then actually run the ball! We can motion him into the backfield and then he can run the carries. I’m looking forward to seeing the Power Inside Buck Sweep with him.

So, I really thought that the Bears’d go with Danny Gray or Calvin Austin III for the type of player they got with VJJ. The Bears were low key trying to get this kind of player, a returner, jitterbug, and able to just have raw speed. But, instead of the one trick pony of speed or jitterbug, Gray and Austin, respectively, they got this with some real size. VJJ is a solid 6’ 200 lbs. This pick is growing on me.

I’ll break this off here and get back to the rest of the draft with a different post. This one is long enough as it is. I’ll just leave you guys with my man EJ Snyder calling it. He said that he thought that the Bears would pick a shit ton of OL and then grab every WR they could in UDFA. He was dead on. If you haven’t seen the Bootleg podcast’s draft stream, you should.
 
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