My Reading of the Tea Leaves

[LiverpoolBearsFAn]

If Pace isn’t trusted to find the right QB then he has to go. I don’t mind him, he’s actually drafted as well as any GM we’ve had in the middle rounds. But as everyone can see there’s always going to be a ceiling without the right QB. It’s all about that position in this league, then build round him. Maybe he gets one more shot at it - Arizona have proved you shouldn’t fear going high again the next year if you don’t get it right first time so it doesn’t have to doom us forever.

 

[HearshotKDS]

Going into this season I hoped that if the team doesn't make the playoffs then both Pace and Nagy are gone. I still hope that is true. If they are retained I don't think it will be because McCaskeys are gun-shy at firing them - both have had multiple seasons I don't think anyone can accuse them of moving "too soon". If they retain those 2 I think it will be because the McCaskeys actually think they can turn the team around. Despite being owners since the 80s, none of them are really football people (more like football adjacent), and they're rubes; the last time they directly were involved in football decisions they scared off the coach they wanted because of how poorly handled/incompetent they were - I can see them getting sold a bag of goods by Pace and Nagy pointing at winning % and defense ranks and thinking these 2 are just about to turn the corner.

 

[Applefan]

Some things to think about: what can you get for your older vets, and which ones do you want to trade?

What does Hicks get you? Maybe a 4th? What does Fuller get you? At best probably a low second or third? Mack isn't tradeable this year, but he probably gets a 2nd and change in 2021? Those are really the only tradeable assets over the next two years unless you want to move someone on a rookie deal.

Don't trade assets that make thisnlook like an enticing job. Ownership aside, if bear finish 8-8 or 9-7 and Nagy and Pace both get fired, Chicago is probably the best job opening in 2021. Houston just has Watson and no draft picks. Jets are a dumpster fire, even if they get Lawrence, Jags too. Chargers are probably the potentially 2nd best opening because of Herbert and other pieces.

 

[dennehy]

Don't trade assets that make thisnlook like an enticing job. Ownership aside, if bear finish 8-8 or 9-7 and Nagy and Pace both get fired, Chicago is probably the best job opening in 2021. Houston just has Watson and no draft picks. Jets are a dumpster fire, even if they get Lawrence, Jags too. Chargers are probably the potentially 2nd best opening because of Herbert and other pieces.

No, because by the time this team has a shot to be good, Hicks is 33 and far less effective (also contract is up after 21). Same with Mack. You could certainly argue to keep Fuller. But without a QB and with at least two and probably more holes to fill on the OL this is not something that is going to change anytime soon.

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

he’s actually drafted as well as any GM we’ve had in the middle rounds.

and completely fucked us in every other way.

 

[bears26]

Trading up is not the issue because Pace landed Darnell Mooney and Eddie Jackson by trading up. The issue is selecting the right player and the only player that really matters is the QB. Once you miss on the QB, nothing else matters. To combat things, it looks like he drafted a coach that has no idea to run an offense and likes to go with familiarity rather than bringing in a better player (still do not see a point why Tyler Bray has been on the roster the past few years). If the Bears cannot get a win in their next game, I see the team going completely downhill with maybe one more win this year.

 

[shoez90]

I think Pace has to go too. Pace helped put this offense together. I think Pace is better at his job than Nagy, but that isn't saying much.

There is no reason to run this offense again next year. There is no reason to march Nagy out there having failed with a young QB and an experienced QB.

the best pick i seen from pace was long as far as finding talent others didn't quite see. Now I think he may have just got lucky. White, MT, Shaheen the bad list is longer. and the guys we passed to get what we have is got a few all pros on it already. I'm not saying he totally sux but he doesn't have to always find the diamond in the rough anymore than Nagy needs a futuristic play to scheme.

 

[ZOMBIE@CTESPN]

Trading up is not the issue because Pace landed Darnell Mooney and Eddie Jackson by trading up. The issue is selecting the right player and the only player that really matters is the QB. Once you miss on the QB, nothing else matters. To combat things, it looks like he drafted a coach that has no idea to run an offense and likes to go with familiarity rather than bringing in a better player (still do not see a point why Tyler Bray has been on the roster the past few years). If the Bears cannot get a win in their next game, I see the team going completely downhill with maybe one more win this year.

It ends up being an issue when two draft picks are used to move up that could have been two players that cost a fraction of what a free agent would cost. Our cap is bad because he over did it and on players that just weren’t worth moving up for. Moving up for Mooney and Jackson didn’t cost much. Moving up for trubisky and Floyd ?‍

 

[WindyCity]

This team is a non-competitive mess. The sooner the Pace fallators realize that, maybe we can move on as a fan base.

 

[Penny Traitor]

I also think Pace & Nagy get another season, but Pace won't spend a meaningful pick on a QB. The tunnel vision this offseason will be focused on putting together a decent OL in a couple of months, but it will be a too little too late thing.

All the meaningful contracts on this team are either up after next season (Hicks/Fuller/2018 draft class) or have relatively easy outs before 2022 (Mack/Foles). After that, the window is closed on keeping the defense together and enough leeway to blow the whole team up if a new GM wishes.

 

[thenewguy]

This team is a non-competitive mess. The sooner the Pace fallators realize that, maybe we can move on as a fan base.

I agree with this and think it's clear both Pace and Nagy should go.

My tea leaf reading says the following:

Pace stays, Nagy goes.

Pace case to Bears ownership: Pace is an excellent defensive evaluator, arguably one of the best in the league. Pace will be able to make the case that Nagy has been so bad at creating an offense, that the talent on the offensive side of the ball was underdeveloped(Miller, Daniels, Whitehair, Kmet, Montgomery, Ridley, Mitch all mismanaged) or wasted( Shaeheen, Mike Davis, and Burton thriving the second they left). Recent offensive picks such as Daniels, Mooney, Kmet showing promise when given an opportunity. Pace allowed Nagy to fire his entire offensive coaching staff and pick Foles as their QB, and everything got worse.

Pace should bring in some new offensive talent evaluators, and the new coaching staff should get a shot to help with a new QB.

Pace has built out new facilities and reshaped the landscape to make the Bears more modern and attractive as a destination.

Why this might be alright? Maybe there is truth to the fact that Nagy has been so bad that the talent can be better if we bring in competent offensive coaching. The Bears are still close when playing some of the top teams in the NFL - TB, NO, Indy - even with a bottom three offense in the league and an undisciplined team leading the league in penalties, punting the first and third quarters of each game, and terrible game and time mismanagement. , A new coach that can get the Bears into a modern offense can keep the team competitive through a measured rebuild - a Foles, Alex Smith type transition period to a young QB. Also, let's be honest picking a QB has a lot of luck to it, and first year GM's have a ton to overcome and is a terrible time to take a big swing at QB( there's exceptions -Kingsbury/Murray).

Also, let's be real transparent that the McCaskey's will be picking the new GM and they absolutely can, and possibly, will do worse than Pace and this org will spiral farther.

Why it might not be alright? Pace picked Fox, Nagy, Mitch, Foles, Glennon, and created this o-line mess. Pace can't use cap to fix the QB and o-line mess, and has given up too many picks for a quick turnaround in those areas. No faith he can bring in - or will even try - to bring in new O evaluators or get help making some tough cap decisions. These is no need to list any more reasons. All of this should be grounds for termination.

 

[mattb78]

There was certainly ample evidence they didn't have full confidence in Nagy last off-season.

If you look at the offseason moves (2 year contract for Foles, 2 year contract for Graham, first 2 selections were CB and in-line TE) it appears Nagy was on a short leash to show he could get the offense in the right direction.

If Pace has the authority to dive deep into the checkbook to get a QB, then he has the authority to fire Pace, and the latter is the smarter move.

 

[mattb78]

Pace is an excellent defensive evaluator, arguably one of the best in the league.

Keep pace and hire the best QB evaluator/developer in the league as your next head coach. Let him take the next QB. Take that heat off of Pace, let him keep drafting great defensive talent, and let your head coach deal with the QB situation.

 

[LiverpoolBearsFAn]

Ultimately if we don’t have one this year, only one winning season under Pace will mean he has to go. Like I said he’s done some good things in the draft but he missed on the QB and it’s looking like he missed on the HC too and those are huge. Its all about winning and while you can give 2 seasons grace to rebuild, if you are still losing in season 5 it’s time to make a change. He’s had a fair crack at it.

 

[WindyCity]

If they go into 2021 with Nick Foles as the only real QB on the roster, I am pretty sure there will be riots.

 

[WindyCity]

Keep pace and hire the best QB evaluator/developer in the league as your next head coach. Let him take the next QB. Take that heat off of Pace, let him keep drafting great defensive talent, and let your head coach deal with the QB situation.

What about the OL? The defense is built, we don’t need Pace anymore. We need someone who can build an offense top to bottom.

 

[One Team]

This is my reading of how this all plays out.

-Nagy and Pace are not getting fired. George McCaskey does not have the stones to fire them and hit reset on the organization, even if it wastes the defensive talent on the team. Every excuse will be rolled out [Covid, Injuries, Bad Luck, No offseason for Foles] all while they are saying that they are not making excuses. We saw this with Lovie and Jerry for years after the Super Bowl.

-Nagy and Pace will know they were close to being fired and they will be desperate.

-We will see even more cap space pushed into future years as they try and patch problems on the OL.

-They will make a trade up for a QB in the draft

1. They cannot afford not to have a new QB to dangle as hope in the future

2. It buys them "development" time

3. Why do they care about future picks? If the QB hits it won't matter and if it misses they will be fired.

This part is flat out wrong. George has done it before and will do it again.

 

[greg23]

I look at them as a package deal

Both stay or both go

5-11...gone

Playoffs...stay

Somewhere around .500 and just missing the playoffs i can see the excuse machine at work where they "hire/promote" someone to call plays next year and run it back

 

[Canth]

If this team misses the playoffs, then I think both Pace and Nagy are gone.

If the team makes the playoffs, then there is a chance they both are kept on for another year, but I do not think Pace gets an extension effectively making 2021 a lame duck prove it year for him.

I will say this about Pace, he is aggressive in addressing issues that get identified. So, assuming his main issues identified are offensive line and QB, then I fully expect him to be aggressive in filling needs at those positions through both FA and the draft.

 

[Montucky]

This part is flat out wrong. George has done it before and will do it again.

They learned from Dick Jauron. That was a coach who won thirteen games in impressive fashion (only for Hugh Douglas to come along) but was kept one season to long after he failed to build on that success. Nagy has failed to build on the success of his first year for two years now, he's finished.