Nagy Era Leaks

Dick Jauron

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It is very possible that Mitch became less accurate under Nagy. As a pitcher I know if I have too much shit in my head I become less accurate. If Mitch was being given too much, which it appears he was, then it is definitely possible his accuracy regressed.

He gave notes to Nagy about how he/they could improve and Nagy no-showed him, which probably made Mitch even worse than he really is. There's a reason Buffalo speaks very highly of him (as well as many Bears players too).
 

JP Hochbaum

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He gave notes to Nagy about how he/they could improve and Nagy no-showed him, which probably made Mitch even worse than he really is. There's a reason Buffalo speaks very highly of him (as well as many Bears players too).
Mitch was actually top 3 in deep ball accuracy in his rookie year. His sudden drop off was rather shocking.
 

Dick Jauron

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Mitch was actually top 3 in deep ball accuracy in his rookie year. His sudden drop off was rather shocking.
We need to find out the Why's.

For now, I will reserve my judgment about Mitch until I've seen him start a game under a competent HC & OC. I don't imagine we will see that this year in Buffalo (unless Josh Allen has a freak injury). Too many (not Bears, unfortunately) quarterbacks have succeeded elsewhere.
 

JP Hochbaum

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"
During his rookie campaign, Trubisky’s 50% accuracy percentage on passes of over 16 air yards was enough to earn him 13th place out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks. The average that season was 48.1%, though, so it’s not like his numbers strayed significantly from the mean. Likewise, out of 52 qualifying attempts, the Bears’ quarterback had 4 inaccurate completions--plays where his receiver bailed him out despite the ball getting away from him. This might lend some fuel to the fire that he might have benefited from his receivers’ ball skills, except this was back in 2017 when receivers with ball skills were hard to find in Chicago. Additionally, he also had exactly 4 “accurate incompletions,” plays where his pass went to the right place but other factors interfered. Overally, Trubisky’s efficiency score (using a metric that Kinsley explains much better than I could) was 0.96, compared to a league average 0.99.

In short, with sample sizes this small, Trubisky was a perfectly average quarterback his rookie year when it came to down-the-field accuracy. There was just enough inconsistency there to give his detractors and his defenders equal ammunition. He was 2nd in the league on passes going 25-29 air yards and fifth on passes going 35-39 air yards. He didn’t attempt passes at some ranges, and so Kinsley’s system penalizes him there, but his real weakness seemed to come on passes at 20-24 air yards (where he only completed 37.5% of his passes and came in 32nd).

Of particular note to me was the fact that a rookie Trubisky was 10th in the league when it came to throwing under pressure (accurate 38.5% of the time) but 26th in the league with a clean pocket (61.5%). So, prior to his first year with Matt Nagy, Trubisky was proving everyone right. He was able to throw a deep ball well when he was on the move, but in a clean pocket he’d make some really bad misses.

It’s also worth noting that Trubisky aired the ball out a lot in 2017, relative to his total number of passes. He had 52 qualifying passes out of 330 attempts, meaning he went deep on about 16% of his attempts. By comparison, two of the leaders in deep ball accuracy were Dak Prescott with 14% (68/490) and Aaron Rodgers with 12% (29/238). Thus, in each of his 12 games, he gave fans an average of four chances to form an impression, and those impressions were erratic enough to support any narrative."



Nagy had the data on Mitch, but still ran an offense where he knew he would struggle and regress.
 

Dick Jauron

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"
During his rookie campaign, Trubisky’s 50% accuracy percentage on passes of over 16 air yards was enough to earn him 13th place out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks. The average that season was 48.1%, though, so it’s not like his numbers strayed significantly from the mean. Likewise, out of 52 qualifying attempts, the Bears’ quarterback had 4 inaccurate completions--plays where his receiver bailed him out despite the ball getting away from him. This might lend some fuel to the fire that he might have benefited from his receivers’ ball skills, except this was back in 2017 when receivers with ball skills were hard to find in Chicago. Additionally, he also had exactly 4 “accurate incompletions,” plays where his pass went to the right place but other factors interfered. Overally, Trubisky’s efficiency score (using a metric that Kinsley explains much better than I could) was 0.96, compared to a league average 0.99.

In short, with sample sizes this small, Trubisky was a perfectly average quarterback his rookie year when it came to down-the-field accuracy. There was just enough inconsistency there to give his detractors and his defenders equal ammunition. He was 2nd in the league on passes going 25-29 air yards and fifth on passes going 35-39 air yards. He didn’t attempt passes at some ranges, and so Kinsley’s system penalizes him there, but his real weakness seemed to come on passes at 20-24 air yards (where he only completed 37.5% of his passes and came in 32nd).

Of particular note to me was the fact that a rookie Trubisky was 10th in the league when it came to throwing under pressure (accurate 38.5% of the time) but 26th in the league with a clean pocket (61.5%). So, prior to his first year with Matt Nagy, Trubisky was proving everyone right. He was able to throw a deep ball well when he was on the move, but in a clean pocket he’d make some really bad misses.

It’s also worth noting that Trubisky aired the ball out a lot in 2017, relative to his total number of passes. He had 52 qualifying passes out of 330 attempts, meaning he went deep on about 16% of his attempts. By comparison, two of the leaders in deep ball accuracy were Dak Prescott with 14% (68/490) and Aaron Rodgers with 12% (29/238). Thus, in each of his 12 games, he gave fans an average of four chances to form an impression, and those impressions were erratic enough to support any narrative."



Nagy had the data on Mitch, but still ran an offense where he knew he would struggle and regress.
Nagy sucks
 

Dick Jauron

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I was wanting him fired like week 4 of 2019.... After the Tampa Bay game in 2018 the offense was horrific.

It just boggles my mind how Nagy basically got rid of Mitch's legs... anytime I saw Mitch *actually* run to pass, I felt like he was on the verge of a big play or two. Nagy took away what made Mitch a deadly weapon at QB and turned him into a statue... FOR WHAT?!?!?! STILL FUCKING BOGGLES MY MIND.

I will tell you this... If he did NOT take Mitch's legs away from Mitch and let Mitch be Mitch, Nagy just might have a job right now...

Crazy, ain't it?
 

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Not sure if this was posted, but here’s one of the specific plays where Trubisky got chewed out in front of the team for passing up an open Allen Robinson…

ZealousFlamboyantIndianelephant-size_restricted.gif


From one of my Film reviews
 

JP Hochbaum

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It just boggles my mind how Nagy basically got rid of Mitch's legs... anytime I saw Mitch *actually* run to pass, I felt like he was on the verge of a big play or two. Nagy took away what made Mitch a deadly weapon at QB and turned him into a statue... FOR WHAT?!?!?! STILL FUCKING BOGGLES MY MIND.

I will tell you this... If he did NOT take Mitch's legs away from Mitch and let Mitch be Mitch, Nagy just might have a job right now...

Crazy, ain't it?
All Nagy had to do was tell Mitch to do 1-2 reads on each play, then run if it wasn't open, or scramble until someone became open.
 

JP Hochbaum

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Not sure if this was posted, but here’s one of the specific plays where Trubisky got chewed out in front of the team…

ZealousFlamboyantIndianelephant-size_restricted.gif


From one of my Film reviews
He looked off a wide open AROB. Funny thing is that the OC at the time, mentioned how Mitch wasn't staying on his first read long enough. This was a great example. The clock in Mitch's head was off for some reason.
 

Dick Jauron

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He looked off a wide open AROB. Funny thing is that the OC at the time, mentioned how Mitch wasn't staying on his first read long enough. This was a great example. The clock in Mitch's head was off for some reason.
Yeah, he definitely didn't stay there long enough. By the time he turned his head, the corner was still on A-Rob, BUT A-Rob was breaking free. He just needed to stay on him for half a second or one whole second.
 

JP Hochbaum

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If we do end up getting a coach that can develop QB's I'd consider signing Kizer as a backup. His rookie numbers were actually good for a horrible Browns team. If we can develop him, he'd make a good piece to have.
 

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If we do end up getting a coach that can develop QB's I'd consider signing Kizer as a backup. His rookie numbers were actually good for a horrible Browns team. If we can develop him, he'd make a good piece to have.
Kizer over Foles

:unsure::unsure::unsure:(n)(n)(n)(n)(n)(n)(n)(n)(n)(n)(n)(n)(n)
 

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View attachment 16936

The Browns were so bad that year that Kizer had 1000 fewer expected yards, and 6 fewer TD's. He was ranked 5th for efficiency, when you correct for dropped passes.
Regardless.......a journeyman backup that led a team to a SB ring versus Kizer......a total bust........no thanks
 

JP Hochbaum

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Regardless.......a journeyman backup that led a team to a SB ring versus Kizer......a total bust........no thanks
I don't see Foles lasting past the June 1st cuts. And the numbers I posted on KIzer were clear that he isn't a bust, just ended up in the worst situation possible, kinda like Mitch....
 

JP Hochbaum

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He's relatively cheap for an experienced backup this coming season, though...
Yeah I could see the costs not being prohibitive. But Foles can get back a day 3 pick, and I just don't see him on a team under new management.
 

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You kind of what a backup that can be a lesser version of Fields so the offense won't have to change. Kizer, Marriota, taylor come to mind for that role.
 

Dick Jauron

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Yeah I could see the costs not being prohibitive. But Foles can get back a day 3 pick, and I just don't see him on a team under new management.

For me, it would be important to find out Justin's relationship with Nick. Are they close? Is Foles a good mentor? Has he been going out of his way to help Justin? These are all unknowns. That's important, though.
 

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