I'll stick with my initial thoughts since free agency:
1- MIN (~10-11 wins)
2- CHI (~9-10 wins)
3- GB (~7-8 wins)
4- DET (~5-6 wins)
-MIN still has a top flight offense that will be tough for most defenses to handle, and, as funny as it is to say, they have the most stable QB situation in the division, so I will stick with them to narrowly repeat as NFC North champs, though I think their win total will be a little down from last year.
-I really wanted to pick the Bears to win the division, but I have to see the dramatic improvement from Fields with my own eyes before I can confidently pick the Bears to be a divisional champ. I do, however, think they can compete for a WC spot because of their schedule, as well as the addition of DJ Moore, who I expect to be a godsend, similar to the way Brandon Marshall was during the Emery era.
-The decision between picking GB or DET in 3rd or 4th place was tough. I think GB will be almost in the exact same position they were in last year—kind of a middling team that flirts with ~.500 ball. I think Love will be wildly inconsistent in his first season as the starter, but GB's defense still has enough talent to keep them in games.
-Detroit will be the NFL's most disappointing team in 2023. I don't buy their arrival as some kind of NFC North juggernaut when they haven't won the division in over 3 decades. Last year was easy for them because they were playing with nothing to lose; nobody expected them to do anything after the start they had. They haven't played with real expectations on them until now, and I don't think they will handle it well.
Between DET and GB, I could see one of these two teams going full tank somewhere near the trade deadline if they feel like they are out of it and want to enter the Caleb Williams/Maye sweepstakes.