O.K., Capologists: Here are the numbers. What are your thoughts?

[Toast88]

There are many people here who pretend to be salary cap experts. But we actually do have some very smart people in this group who know the salary cap backwards and frontwards.

Can some of you do a cap breakdown with some deep analysis as we head into next year?

I'll start out with the basic numbers and leave it up to others to analyze. Apologies if I mess any of this up. I admit I'm not a cap expert, and I'm going purely off of OverTheCap numbers.


2022 Salary Cap: $208 million, $25.7 million higher than 2021

Bears players coming off the books this year (not taking re-signings or franchise tags into account at all):

-Allen Robinson: $18M
-Akiem Hicks: $10M
-Jimmy Graham: $5.3M
-Andy Dalton: $5M
-James Daniels: $3M
-Germain Ifedi: $2.7M
-Bilal Nichols: $2.2M
-Tashaun Gipson: $1.8M
-Jakeem Grant: $1.5M
-Jason Peters: $1.5M
-Jesse James: $1.2M
-Pat O'Donnell: $1.1M
-Damien Williams: $1.1M
-Deon Bush: $1M
-Marquise Goodwin: $1M
-Christian Jones: $1M
-Damien Byrd: $1M
-Patrick Scales: $1M
-Elijah Wilkinson: $1M
-Deandre Houston-Carson: $1M
-Alec Ogletree, JP Holtz, Alex Bars, Ryan Nall, Sam Mustipher, etc.: All under $1M

TOTAL: Over $90 million

Most expensive players in 2022:

-Khalil Mack: $30.1M (up from $14.6M)
-Robert Quinn: $17.1M (up from $11.2M)
-Eddie Jackson: $15.1M (up from $5.1M)
-Cody Whitehair: $12.3M (up from $5.2M)
-Eddie Goldman: $11.8M (up from $7.8M)
-Nick Foles: $10.6M (up from $6.6M)
-Roquan Smith: $9.7M (up from $6M)
-Danny Trevathan: $5.9M (up from $5M)
-Tarik Cohen: $5.7M (up from $3.2M)

TOTAL: $118M for your 9 most expensive players. Those 9 players will make $53.3 million more in 2022 than they did this year.

^^^That's 57 percent of your 2022 cap going toward those 9. How many of those guys have been mediocre-to-below-average contributors lately? More than a few, I think.

Dead cap money still being paid out next year:

-Charles Leno: $2.8M
-Riley Ridley: $170K


So with total cap liabilities for 2022 at $170M and team cap space for 2022 currently set at $41M, what do we think, CCS? How much will re-signings and franchise tag(s) eat into that space? Are those 9 most expensive contracts going to screw the Bears as they try to build around Fields, or is it typical? Thoughts?

 

[Black Rainbow]

-Eddie Jackson: $15.1M (up from $5.1M)
-Cody Whitehair: $12.3M (up from $5.2M)
-Eddie Goldman: $11.8M (up from $7.8M)
-Nick Foles: $10.6M (up from $6.6M)
-Danny Trevathan: $5.9M (up from $5M)
-Tarik Cohen: $5.7M (up from $3.2M)

This is $59M of a $208M cap. Roughly 30%

 

[dennehy]

The problem in reality is that the Bears only have 27 players under contract next year that count against the cap right now. There are five players with cap charges from ghost year extensions. That means that as of how they have to add 26 players that will count against the cap to their roster to make the 53. Even if you paid out league minimum salaries (usually about $1.1mil for vets and $700k for younger) and signed your draft picks at their allotted slots - say 20 guys total there - you are at $20mil total for six free agent signings past one year minimum players. Tough to see how that generates a ton of talent.

Another issue is that there really isn't anyone to cut who will generate a lot of cap space. Cohen is probably the most obvious, but he only generates $2.25m. Goldman would generate around $6m. I'd think maybe they try to trade Goldman for a late round pick. Attachou and Blackson each would give about $2m and Foles $3m. But this is all slim pickins and there just isn't a lot of flexibility.

They also will consider resigning Nichols and Daniels and extending Roquan. The first two will would eat cap. Because Roquan is on his fifth year option an extension would likely be a wash cap wise.

The good news, I guess, is that the FA market should be fairly depressed this year because no one in the league had long term plans that included the cap decreasing significantly in 2021. But it's still hard to imagine the Bears significantly upgrading talent next year without getting lucky.

 

[BEARZOMBIE]

-Eddie Jackson: $15.1M (up from $5.1M)
-Cody Whitehair: $12.3M (up from $5.2M)
-Eddie Goldman: $11.8M (up from $7.8M)
-Nick Foles: $10.6M (up from $6.6M)
-Danny Trevathan: $5.9M (up from $5M)
-Tarik Cohen: $5.7M (up from $3.2M)

This is $59M of a $208M cap. Roughly 30%

Sticks out like a sore thumb but there are still posters that say it’s no big deal

 

[Black Rainbow]

Sticks out like a sore thumb but there are still posters that say it’s no big deal

I've read those posts too.

Forget about the contracts they signed with Pace for a moment...there's no doubt in my mind an organization like the Patriots would release all of these players. Whitehair would be a cap casualty and the others released because of low performance.

I know Foles & Quin have 2022 outs worked into their contacts...there maybe more...but I wonder if the new GM is going to rip the band-aid off.

Could be another rough year in 2022.

 

[Visionman]

The short answer is this: we aren’t going to be going out making a splash in FA. We aren’t going to be able to go all in on a top flight WR or DB, if that’s what you prefer. But we will have enough to fill out a decent roster, while the core of this team continues to grow larger and more experienced, preparing for a run in 2023 and beyond.

IF Fields works out, of course…

 

[dennehy]

I've read those posts too.

Forget about the contracts they signed with Pace for a moment...there's no doubt in my mind an organization like the Patriots would release all of these players. Whitehair would be a cap casualty and the others released because of low performance.

I know Foles & Quin have 2022 outs worked into their contacts...there maybe more...but I wonder if the new GM is going to rip the band-aid off.

Could be another rough year in 2022.

Anyone on a multiyear deal has an out. It's just a question of how much dead cap the org is willing to absorb to cut a player and what the benefit is. There are lots of bad outs right now though because of salary pushing.

 

[Toast88]

Anyone on a multiyear deal has an out. It's just a question of how much dead cap the org is willing to absorb to cut a player and what the benefit is. There are lots of bad outs right now though because of salary pushing.

Yyyup. The only feasible multi-million-dollar "outs" this offseason appear to be:

-Eddie Goldman (cap hit of $5.1M on an $11.8M contract, for a saving of $6.6M)
-Tarik Cohen (cap hit of $3.5M on a $5.7M contract, for a saving of $2.2M)
-Angelo Blackson (cap hit of $1M on a $3M contract, for a saving of $2M)

Shouldn't really entertain Mack yet ($4M total savings, but a $27M dead cap hit), and they're obviously not going to cut Montgomery ($2.5+M total savings). So yeah, not much they can really do yet to alleviate that cap hit. This is going to be a multi-year digging out.

And the guy who did it shouldn't be the guy to clean it up.

 

[Black Rainbow]

The short answer is this: we aren’t going to be going out making a splash in FA. We aren’t going to be able to go all in on a top flight WR or DB, if that’s what you prefer. But we will have enough to fill out a decent roster, while the core of this team continues to grow larger and more experienced, preparing for a run in 2023 and beyond.

IF Fields works out, of course…

The Bears could be in the playoffs next year, if all of these work out.

- Quin plays like he did this year.
- Mack plays closer to 2018 level.
- Fields is the 10th best QB in the league.
- Jenkins is a legit LT; doesn't get injured.
- Borom is a legit RT; doesn't get injured.
- We find decent FAs for C, CB, WR.
- Or draft C, CB, WR and they can start.
- No key players get lost to injury.

2022 playoff run!

 

[dennehy]

I would field offers on Mack. I think he will still have potential high value to the right team. I think it's pretty obvious he's been playing at less than 100% and with surgery and rest I'd expect most NFL people to be very bullish on him. With Gipson emerging, they should listen for the right deal. IMO that would mean a late first and change or similar. They could prorate his dead cap to create some significant cap space in that situation as well, or take the big hit this year and be in a stronger FA space in 23.

That said if you keep Mack and he is healthy you probably have the best EDGE group in the league by a pretty wide margin.

 

[jsu34]

Not sure how it affects the cap, but keep Blackson.

No need or use trying to get around Mack. Simply too much of a hit. Not sure moving on from him makes sense anyway.

So, folks when working these numbers, make sure not to do it just to make the numbers fit.

 

[Bearly]

I've read those posts too.

Forget about the contracts they signed with Pace for a moment...there's no doubt in my mind an organization like the Patriots would release all of these players. Whitehair would be a cap casualty and the others released because of low performance.

I know Foles & Quin have 2022 outs worked into their contacts...there maybe more...but I wonder if the new GM is going to rip the band-aid off.

Could be another rough year in 2022.

I'd be OK with it. Let the younger players get reps, sign the best prospects off other PS to our active and fill in where you can. I can't believe that once this year was down the drain that we didn't see more young substitutions to see what's actually there, especially at OL, DB and WR. That guys like Graham, Newsome and Eiselen (who hasn't played) need a complete availability melt down to just get a look at positions that need help, in a year you know is the prelude to a rebuild was criminal. You don't even have to play them a lot and risk more losses, just get their feet wet and see how they respond over a few games. Our C and RG are FA. We have 1 established starting WR and CB yet the kids don't get a sniff until it's forced upon this staff, even if what's out there is underperforming.

 

[Dick Jauron]

I think there will be some cuts (Trevethan), trades (Foles), and extensions (Monty, Smith). If done correctly (keyword: CORRECTLY), then that could free up some room. The Bears just need to be smart and creative.

We are in a hell lot better position than some teams like the Packers and the Saints when it comes to cap room. Those two teams are going to have to make some difficult decisions.

 

[dennehy]

I think there will be some cuts (Trevethan), trades (Foles), and extensions (Monty, Smith). If done correctly (keyword: CORRECTLY), then that could free up some room. The Bears just need to be smart and creative.

We are in a hell lot better position than some teams like the Packers and the Saints when it comes to cap room. Those two teams are going to have to make some difficult decisions.

Cutting Trevethan would increase his cap hit by $3m. Trading Foles would almost certainly mean that you'd have to sign a backup QB that would cost as much or more than the cap relief from cutting him. An extension for Monty would not lower his cap hit and for Smith maybe it would, but marginally.

So really none of the things you suggest could be done correctly.

 

[Visionman]

The Bears could be in the playoffs next year, if all of these work out.

- Quin plays like he did this year.
- Mack plays closer to 2018 level.
- Fields is the 10th best QB in the league.
- Jenkins is a legit LT; doesn't get injured.
- Borom is a legit RT; doesn't get injured.
- We find decent FAs for C, CB, WR.
- Or draft C, CB, WR and they can start.
- No key players get lost to injury.

2022 playoff run!

I think we could make the playoffs. But to have an actual shot at a playoff run? I don’t think we’ll have quite the firepower or depth…yet.

 

[Bearly]

We're not the worst cap position but the Packers and Saints have a better roster to start from.

 

[Probie2429]

Packers are 40 million over as of right now and plan to tag Adams for 20 million? There will be some remodeling.

 

[Bearly]

Packers are 40 million over as of right now and plan to tag Adams for 20 million? There will be some remodeling.

That's fine but schadenfreude doesn't help our sad situation one bit.

 

[Toast88]

I think there will be some cuts (Trevethan), trades (Foles), and extensions (Monty, Smith). If done correctly (keyword: CORRECTLY), then that could free up some room. The Bears just need to be smart and creative.

We are in a hell lot better position than some teams like the Packers and the Saints when it comes to cap room. Those two teams are going to have to make some difficult decisions.

Packers' cap situation:

Holy shit.

Total Cap Liabilities: $253,277,656

• Top 51: $252,627,738
• Team Cap Space: (-$40,426,300)

 

[KennyH]

Ever so slightly off topic - but if Dalton is leaving but Foles is staying, or the team are trying to trade him, why is Dalton starting and not Foles - who you would surely want to give reps or showcase??

Makes no sense