O.K., Capologists: Here are the numbers. What are your thoughts?

Ralpf

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If you do move on from those contracts in 2022 (and if I am wrong on this, someone please correct me), then all of the player money gets pushed to 2022. So if they have to eat it anyway, it may be worth it for a new GM just to "rip the bandaid" off for some of these players, because it then opens up way more flexibility for 2023 and beyond.
Yeah, that is how that works, the issue is that they need to field a roster with that cap space too. It's not unreasonable in general but I am not seeing any players that it makes sense to do that with, with the possible exception of Eddie Jackson, but I don't think he is going anywhere.

Quinn and Mack's contracts are huge but as long as they can stay healthy the contract situation there isn't bad, Quinn's cap hit basically stays the same for the rest of the contract (+1M in '23, '24 is about the same as '22) and Mack's slowly drops, while the salary cap should take another large jump for 2023.

Quinn would have been an easy cut based on last year, but he earned his money this year. But if that changes he can be cut in 2023 for some decent savings. Mack can also be cut in 2023 for good savings if need be. Eddie Jackson, too, for that matter. I think the most reasonable course of action is to see how all three do with the, hopefully, new coaching staff.
 
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Ralpf

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One of the tricks that helps me with perspective of the Bears situation is to remove a minimum token amount for each roster spot (Bears have 28 signed in 2022, they need 53, so 25 spots need to be filled). You can probably expect to fill any given spot with a minimum 1 year vet contract value of around 750k. For example, pig simmons and horsted are making 780k to give some idea of what level of player you are getting. You can sign rookie UDFA though for cheaper, between 300-500k. If you're scraping the barrel for cheap guys you are probably going to be signing a mix of both of these types of players. Let's use $650K as an "average" year salary for a minimum level "just filling a mandatory spot" guy, its a bit arbitrary but its close to what you see across multiple min guys and UDFA rookies.
Also keep in mind that only the top 51 contracts count, so that is essentially 2 free spots for young players, right now Thomas Graham and Kamara are not counting against the Bears cap. So that is 23 spots that need to be signed for ~40M.
 

Visionman

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Realistically, any player that is not a part of a 2-4 year plan should be considered expendable, no matter their contract or contribution. Doesn’t mean we will, or should, get rid of every good player like that, but we should be open to all moves that benefit the team long term.

Worst idea is attempting to remain “competitive” next season at the possible expense of future seasons. This isn’t a full rebuild by any means, but it definitely isn’t a “ready to win now” team either…
 

pdxbearsfan

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Ever so slightly off topic - but if Dalton is leaving but Foles is staying, or the team are trying to trade him, why is Dalton starting and not Foles - who you would surely want to give reps or showcase??

Makes no sense
Nagy is the man responsible just like with the young guys not playing, he is sticking it to us, enough about what a nice guy he is and how he's handling things with professionalism. Screw him, he should be ordered to play the young guys period vs. trying to pad his record with a couple of meaningless wins.
 

HearshotKDS

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Also keep in mind that only the top 51 contracts count, so that is essentially 2 free spots for young players, right now Thomas Graham and Kamara are not counting against the Bears cap. So that is 23 spots that need to be signed for ~40M.
Top 51 rule expires in the first week of regular season, you need all 53 roster members to be under cap once week 1 hits.
 

Bort

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makes sense to me....


Don’t be shocked if the #Bears post-June 1 cut Eddie Goldman this offseason.

They save about $8.9 million in cap by cutting him this year, his play has fallen off a bit, and he only plays once every 3 snaps. Could use that money for WR, OL, DBs.

— Jacob Infante (@jacobinfante24) January 3, 2022

They could also do the counter-intuitive thing and save a bunch of cap room by converting Goldman's 2022 salary into a signing bonus as part of an extension. He's only 27 and coming off of his worst season, and buying low often pays off when a player's performance reverts to the mean.
 

rawdawg

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1. Danny T has got to go. June 1 cut is a no-brainer. Modest savings of 3.5Mil.

2. Khalil Mack. New GM (hopefully) has to determine what Mack has left in the tank. If the Bears pay him 30M against the cap next year, it means 2022 is his last year as a Bear. You only count him that much against the cap if you are trying to exhaust his potential dead money after a pending cut. If the new regime decides Mack should retire as a Bear, you restructure him and save up to 12-13Mil.

3. Robert Quinn. I love what Quinn has done this year. But gotta be careful with him. 1 year removed from a 2 sack season. Last 3 years as a Ram he had 17.5 sacks total. He's going to be 32 in May. If someone wants to give up draft picks and take on some salary, I'd trade Quinn in a heartbeat. In fact, I'll go as far as to say I'd look to trade Quinn. Gipson has shown he can play full-time snaps. You can find another Attaochu, Marsh, or Irvin to take some pass rush snaps. You also hope Snowden develops as a 3rd/4th pass rusher. Then you have Ledarius and Sam Kamara. Sure you lose some pass rush, but you filter that money to the offense.

4. Eddie Goldman. I'd actually probably keep Goldman, if he wants to play. He has shown flashes this year. And I think the year layoff is more of the issue than him not wanting to play. Gotta ramp up his snap count though if he's staying to justify that money. But losing Hicks and maybe Nichols and/or Edwards, you gotta keep someone on that line. But he'd be an either/or with Quinn. Don't want 30M tied into those two.

I'd keep Foles as backup. Only 3M in savings from cutting him and you probably need that much for another backup QB anyway. Probably keep Whitehair since you do need 2 OL. I'd look to move him back to C. He was fine there. Easier to find a dominant OG than a C. I'd keep Cohen, got a cheap RB room. He's insurance as a 3rd down back and if you can't find a capable slot WR/returner.

Bring back the following players for similar salaries as 2021:

DHC, O'Donnell, Scales, Jakeem Grant, Jesse James, Bars, Iyejbuniwe, maybe Ogletree and Bush as well but you can wait near camp for those guys.
 

Dick Jauron

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Cutting Trevethan would increase his cap hit by $3m. Trading Foles would almost certainly mean that you'd have to sign a backup QB that would cost as much or more than the cap relief from cutting him. An extension for Monty would not lower his cap hit and for Smith maybe it would, but marginally.

So really none of the things you suggest could be done correctly.

You're probably right, but I did play around with the calculator. In 2023, we have $90+M cap space, and 2024, $115+M cap space. My point is, making extensions (Roquan, for example), we can structure the contract to have the heaviest hits in those year to lessen the burden on 2022's cap.

I was also able to increase 2022's cap space number by designating some people for post June 1 cuts.

Really, it's all about being creative and smart. The Saints were like, $60+M *OVER* the cap for this year and they had to be creative as hell to get under the cap.

The Bears used to have a great cap guy for these situations, but they let him go a couple years ago (?), and I forgot his name. I know he's been around the team FOREVER, so someone has to know and remind me what his name was!!!
 

Canth

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The Bears used to have a great cap guy for these situations, but they let him go a couple years ago (?), and I forgot his name. I know he's been around the team FOREVER, so someone has to know and remind me what his name was!!!

Cliff Stein. He's actually still in the Front Office, not sure what exactly he does now. But yeah, Pace brought in his own guy to play with the cap.
 

Canth

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And actually, skimming that list of people, I find it interesting that the Athletic Training staff is listed under the Front Office. That was supposed to be one of the structural issues that led to McDaniels walking away from the Colts - things like the athletic trainers reporting to the GM instead of the Head Coach.
 

Bort

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One of the tricks that helps me with perspective of the Bears situation is to remove a minimum token amount for each roster spot (Bears have 28 signed in 2022, they need 53, so 25 spots need to be filled). You can probably expect to fill any given spot with a minimum 1 year vet contract value of around 750k. For example, pig simmons and horsted are making 780k to give some idea of what level of player you are getting. You can sign rookie UDFA though for cheaper, between 300-500k. If you're scraping the barrel for cheap guys you are probably going to be signing a mix of both of these types of players. Let's use $650K as an "average" year salary for a minimum level "just filling a mandatory spot" guy, its a bit arbitrary but its close to what you see across multiple min guys and UDFA rookies.

Bears also have 5 draft picks with a $5.1M rookie pool, so that brings them down to 20 roster spots to fill and $35.8M to fill them. I think the Bears will likely not spend all $5.1M because of their lack of day 1 and 2 picks, but that's the number OTC is using so it works for now.

20 spots x 650k = $13M. So if you assume every roster spot has a cost "floor" of that, the Bears have $22.8M to play with to upgrade the full 53 roster spots from a minimum guy. Or maybe its easier to look at it like the Bears have $35.8M to fill 20 spots, so they can spend on average $1.79M per spot. This is before cuts/restructures/can kicking down the road/etc. tricks that can be used to make cap appear now at the cost of later seasons.

It's more expensive than that. Rookie minimum is $705K and 2nd year player minimum is $825K in 2022.
 

Dick Jauron

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Cliff Stein. He's actually still in the Front Office, not sure what exactly he does now. But yeah, Pace brought in his own guy to play with the cap.

YES! Thank you!!!

Cliff Stein is the General Counsel for the Bears.

Source: Why did the Bears change Cliff Stein's role?

"What's with kicking Cliff Stein upstairs? He has a reputation for excellence as a cap and contract guy. -- @raven540

Fair questions and I think the simple answer is Pace ultimately wanted to have someone he is familiar working with in Joey Laine, who was hired last week as the team's director of football administration. Laine spent the previous 10 seasons rising through the Saints organization on a path that more or less paralleled the one Pace took. When the Bears hired Pace in January, I was told he was as close with Laine as anyone in the New Orleans front office, so the hiring of Laine to effectively replace Stein as the contract and cap guy makes sense from that standpoint. Stein weathered the change from Jerry Angelo to Phil Emery but Pace went a different direction following free agency and the draft. Stein did get all six of the team's draft picks under contract. Stein had a strong reputation around the league and you can go back more than a decade ago when he used creative ways to spend the team's remaining cap money each year by re-doing the contract of a player or two just before the season ended. Now, it's easier for teams to simply transfer leftover cap space from year to year. The Bears have generally had excellent cap health under Stein and the second question is a fair one. But let's remember the Bears were forced to release Julius Peppers a year ago after his cap number grew too high. The Bears had renegotiated Peppers' contract on two occasions and in doing so created a cap number of more than $18 million for him in 2014, which the Bears simply couldn't handle. Yes, the Saints have had tight cap issues for a couple of years but they have been gunning for the Super Bowl every year since winning it and had a quarterback in Drew Brees with a big contract."
 

Ralpf

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Top 51 rule expires in the first week of regular season, you need all 53 roster members to be under cap once week 1 hits.
You're right. Scratch that, then. Weird rule, never knew it was just in effect in that period.
 

Skull

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Cutting Trevethan would increase his cap hit by $3m. Trading Foles would almost certainly mean that you'd have to sign a backup QB that would cost as much or more than the cap relief from cutting him. An extension for Monty would not lower his cap hit and for Smith maybe it would, but marginally.

So really none of the things you suggest could be done correctly.
I think if we cut Trevathan after June 1st we can save 3.5mil and lower the cap hit
 

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