Offseason Junk

CSF77

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As a comp.

Kershaw 14 years 69.1 BWAR. 33 right now. He could just toss breaking pitches for 7 more years to push 115 more wins. Right now he has a solid case made.

Verlander 72.2 BWAR age is working against him right now. 38 YO might get in 2-3 more years. He needs 74 more wins and that is not really a realistic goal at this point. 250 is with in reach if he has a strong year this year. 20 wins this year and a cy young is attainable and pretty much seals the deal. A so so injury plagued year he might as well hang them up.
 

knoxville7

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As a comp.

Kershaw 14 years 69.1 BWAR. 33 right now. He could just toss breaking pitches for 7 more years to push 115 more wins. Right now he has a solid case made.

Verlander 72.2 BWAR age is working against him right now. 38 YO might get in 2-3 more years. He needs 74 more wins and that is not really a realistic goal at this point. 250 is with in reach if he has a strong year this year. 20 wins this year and a cy young is attainable and pretty much seals the deal. A so so injury plagued year he might as well hang them up.
Neither reach 250 wins is my prediction but I agree they are locks to be in the HOF ahead of Lester. It’s a good thing they won’t be in Jon’s class, and also a good thing they don’t have limits on positions in a time period getting in either
 

CSF77

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In regards to the top pick in the amateur draft, the teams with the three worst records would be involved in a lottery, with the winner receiving the first overall pick. This is similar to a previous league proposal, except this time, MLB added that a team wouldn’t be allowed to take part in the lottery for three consecutive seasons (to help address tanking). The MLBPA has also wanted a draft lottery, except a larger process involving the eight teams with the worst records.
 

CSF77

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A draft for international players, as opposed to the current “July 2” international signing window and bonus pool system.
 

CSF77

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The elimination of the “Super Two” arbitration system, as players who would count as Super Two-eligible in the future would have salaries determined by a formula. The league’s proposal offers some leeway, as players with even one day of MLB current service time would have the option of taking part in this new system or opting to remain in the old system. Regardless of this grandfather clause for current union members, the MLBPA isn’t keen on the idea of any statistical-based calculation tied to salary, such as the league’s prior proposal to entirely eliminate the salary arbitration process.
 

CSF77

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If a team has a top 100-ranked prospect on its Opening Day roster, and that player finishes in the top five in voting for a major award (the MVP, Cy Young, or Rookie Of The Year) during one of his arbitration-eligible seasons, the team would receive a bonus draft pick. The idea is to provide a benefit for teams so they won’t hold back top prospects for service-time reasons, as extra playing time might help a player earn an award like the ROY as soon as possible. According to Passan/Rogers, players have some reservations about this idea, including concerns over how the list of “top prospects” eligible would be determined.
 

CSF77

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Ownership is coming up with some interesting stuff. I don't see the union taking that last one unless there is a hardline rule in place. IE top 100 at the time of making him a player vs 2 years ago was on the list but drops off but hey he won ROY and he was on it in A ball right...
 

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An expanded playoff bracket, with 14 teams reaching the postseason. The players have expressed an openness for a 12-team postseason in the past, though as Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith notes, an expanded playoff is “arguably players’ biggest bargaining chip” given how much the league and the owners want that extra postseason TV revenue.
 

CSF77

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This one is pretty cool. 14 teams is almost 1/2 of the league right now get in. This is NBA level where there are two seasons. The first just leads into a season minus the bottom feeder.

If I am the union this is the big chip. Ownership makes huge TV deals with this expansion. Union should really push for a min team payroll in return. I wouldn't give ownership a hard cap. Maybe a hard tax at 200 that doesn't grow. The scaling up should still hurt.

Other than that revenue sharing. This is a tough one that the league really needs to address. Some teams really are ran well with little support. But this is a business at the end of the day. If a market can not support a 100 M payroll then other options including relocation. Oakland could move down to San Jose. New venue larger market. Fan base is not affected. Rays moved closer to their base's core vs the other side of town.

But teams that are constantly robbing the piggyback should be evaluated and real solutions found.
 

CSF77

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The use of the DH in both the American and National Leagues. The universal DH has widely been expected to be part of this CBA, and Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle writes that the players union seems agreeable to the idea as long as the universal DH isn’t “tied to something else as a bargaining chip.”
 

CSF77

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This seems the easiest to get. Both side want it. I wouldn't tie it up to this for because either side could do that. This one should be a okay yes. Resolved. Next issue.
 

CSF77

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This one is pretty cool. 14 teams is almost 1/2 of the league right now get in. This is NBA level where there are two seasons. The first just leads into a season minus the bottom feeder.

If I am the union this is the big chip. Ownership makes huge TV deals with this expansion. Union should really push for a min team payroll in return. I wouldn't give ownership a hard cap. Maybe a hard tax at 200 that doesn't grow. The scaling up should still hurt.

Other than that revenue sharing. This is a tough one that the league really needs to address. Some teams really are ran well with little support. But this is a business at the end of the day. If a market can not support a 100 M payroll then other options including relocation. Oakland could move down to San Jose. New venue larger market. Fan base is not affected. Rays moved closer to their base's core vs the other side of town.

But teams that are constantly robbing the piggyback should be evaluated and real solutions found.

Fla tends to be bad for baseball. There are two teams there and neither generates revenue. Moving one out makes sense as the few fans can centralize on one team.

It is a hard call to be honest. Rays are the far better ran team and getting their market respectful will really create a dynamic in the AL east. 3 markets that can go 200M would be enticing for the fan base.

The question is where? Jacksonville is the largest city in FLA. That might be a interesting spot. Miami has more hype but 1/2 of the Pop.

Indianapolis is another spot. Near 1 mil people. City supports a football team. Kinda makes sense when you think of it.

So ya there are untapped markets that might support a 100M team at min.
 

TL1961

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I was reading a piece on the Cubs site. They had a solid debate about it. He was a 2nd tier pitcher with a excellent post season track record. Going by his raw reg season stuff. No. But the case is in the post season where he was a big reason for those victories.

He has comps with Buhrle and others in that class.

The only 100% sure thing is 300 wins. If you fall 100 wins short your really need a strong secondary argument. And he does.

50/50 and really depends if the field is watered down that year or not.
I have said in the past I don’t think Andy Pettit is a Hall of Famer and I feared he would get in because Yankee and postseason.

When Lester announced his retirement someone mentioned Jon being a Hall of Famer and the response “was not before Petitte.”

I thought Petitte had a much higher ERA than Lester but they are almost indentical, and Pettite has a much higher war which surprises me quite a bit. I believe it was 60 to 44.

Sadly, I think Jon is not a HOF, but I would be very happy to find out voters feel that he is.

Hell if you just want to make a comparison of members of the Red Sox, I expect that David Ortiz will sail into the Hall of Fame and I think Jon Lester had a far greater impact on the team than Ortiz
 

knoxville7

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I have said in the past I don’t think Andy Pettit is a Hall of Famer and I feared he would get in because Yankee and postseason.

When Lester announced his retirement someone mentioned Jon being a Hall of Famer and the response “was not before Petitte.”

I thought Petitte had a much higher ERA than Lester but they are almost indentical, and Pettite has a much higher war which surprises me quite a bit. I believe it was 60 to 44.

Sadly, I think Jon is not a HOF, but I would be very happy to find out voters feel that he is.

Hell if you just want to make a comparison of members of the Red Sox, I expect that David Ortiz will sail into the Hall of Fame and I think Jon Lester had a far greater impact on the team than Ortiz
I think that’s why Lester ultimately gets in. When you think back to all 3 WS championship teams…Lester was a massive reason for all 3.

Hes also got 200 wins and is 40th on the all time strikeout list. And basically everyone ahead of him on the list is in or will be in. He’s not a first ballot guy or anything, but I think he gets in eventually. The championships coming with the Red Sox and cubs when they did will certainly play a part in it
 

CSF77

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Bit off topic.


So the Twins might deal his 3 years of control. This fits into the Cubs short term. And a middle of the order left handed hitter.

The Cubs have stock piled some talent where they could buy him for the OF. Maybe then eat Heyward's deal and have Kepler man RF.

Over all this makes the line up a bit more balanced as it is leaning too much towards RH depth.
 

CSF77

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On Lester. Sure he could. His post season track record does point towards it. But they would really have to push other deserving ex players in first. Byleven is almost criminal.
 

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MLBTR Poll: Carlos Rodon’s Contract

By Anthony Franco | January 19, 2022 at 8:20pm CDT

The free agent starting pitching market moved very quickly before the transactions freeze. Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw are the clear top two starters remaining, and it seems Kershaw’s market could be limited by geographical concerns. That’d leave Rodón as the lone potential top-of-the-rotation arm available in free agency, but his status is complicated by health questions.
Rodón’s story has been covered a few times this offseason. After a few injury-plagued years, the former #3 overall pick broke out with an ace-caliber first half. He was a deserved All-Star and on a potential Cy Young pace until hitting the injured list with discomfort in his throwing shoulder in August. He missed a few weeks — albeit after it was apparent the White Sox were coasting to an AL Central title — before returning to make a few starts at the end of the season.
While Rodón continued to be effective after that IL stint, the average velocity on both his fastball and slider ticked down a couple miles per hour. Rodón’s fastball velocity ramped back up during his lone postseason start (his slider speed did not), but he was knocked out after just 2 2/3 innings during a rough outing against the Astros. The White Sox were eliminated before he got another opportunity to take the hill.
It wasn’t an ideal finish, but Rodón’s season-long production was excellent. He posted a 2.37 ERA with a massive 34.6% strikeout rate over 132 2/3 regular season innings, showcasing dominant swing-and-miss stuff at his best. Yet the White Sox declined to make the 29-year-old a qualifying offer, perhaps indicating some trepidation on the club’s part about his health. Given that durability uncertainty, MLBTR forecasted Rodón to take a one-year, $25MM deal in hopes of duplicating his excellent 2021 numbers in search of nine figures next offseason.
That doesn’t seem to be a course of action Rodón’s considering — or, at least, it wasn’t on the table early in the offseason. Agent Scott Boras told reporters in November they’d have rejected a QO had the Sox made one, saying the southpaw was on the hunt for a multi-year deal. Yet there were essentially no substantive rumors regarding Rodón in the weeks leading up to the lockout, leaving his market highly uncertain. MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined his best potential landing spots last month.
What kind of deal might Rodón command? Perhaps the market’s other starters can provide some idea. Max Scherzer landed the biggest contract of any starter this offseason, signing for a whopping $130MM over three years. He’s a unique case, with the next couple tiers offering cleaner possible comps. Robbie Ray received five guaranteed years and $115MM, with an opt-out possibility after the third season. Kevin Gausman signed for five years and $110MM.
Aside from that trio of nine-figure hurlers, the biggest starting pitching deals went to Eduardo Rodríguez (five years/$77MM, with an opt-out clause after the second season), Marcus Stroman (three years/$71MM, with an opt-out after the second season) and Jon Gray (four years/$56MM). Below them are Steven Matz (four years/$44MM) and Anthony DeSclafani (three years/$36MM).
Where will Rodón fit into that mix? What does the MLBTR readership think his post-lockout contract will be?
(poll links for app users)
 

CSF77

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Sounds like SD is desperate to dump Hosmer when this lock out ends.

Gore is ranked #56 and the Pads are locked up in starting pitching depth.

If Jed took on Hosmer's whole deal and Gore for Kohl Franklin and Ryan Jenson.

Cubs would take on 22:$20M, 23:$13M, 24:$13M, 25:$13M. Which is not bad going forward short term. It fits into what Jed would pay.

Gore put in 20 innings at AAA. He would start in Iowa with Killian. Marquez then could be utilized as the Iowa closer. All 3 should make the team in 2022 with Davis.

If Preller asks for more in return it would have to be Bote or Happ. Right now both are expendable. If you really look at it Jed could just toss Heyward Frazier and Ortega as the starting set. Vs lefties have Hermo start in CF. Frazier is a borderline butcher out there so you really want Hermo pushing him for reps

But overall this is more about opening up playing time for Davis mid season. Get him 200 PA at Iowa.

Here is the thing. On the 40 man that player falls I to the lock out. Off it they can play. So Davis is off it so he should be in Iowa under normal playing.

So if this turns ugly Iowa should be where Jed gets his first wave ready.
 
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