Offseason Stuff

Steve_A

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This isn't really accurate. It's the popular narrative but it's not really true. They had 34 prospect rated at a 40 or better by fangraphs late 2019 ratings. People will cite the dodgers as a strong developmental team and they had 32. Tampa is probably the deepest team in baseball and had 41. Now sure, truth be told the cubs lack some of the higher end guys you'll see in top 100 ranks. But they do have 3 guys who were already well regard in Ademan, Amaya and Hoerner. Alzolay is on that fringe border top 100 range. And that's before you mention the big risers from 2019 in Brennen Davis and Brailyn Marquez both of whom have super star ceilings it's just they are far more risky. And keep in mind that's before we even talk about what they would bring back trading Bryant and or Contreras. Also keep in mind the cubs are going to be strong in IFA markets to bring in talent.
Amaya and Hoerner are well regarded yes.
Ademan hit .221 with an .318 obp last year at A+ ball.
He's still young but doesn't scream great talent to me.
Brennen Davis and some other guys have talent but don't other teams have guys like this as well?

Most rankings have the Cubs farm system in the bottom five for a reason.
You can select and choose your small sample but that doesn't paint the whole picture.
 

CSF77

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Marquez and Davis most likely break top 100 in the next rankings. BA already crowned Marquez as their Cubs #1. That suggests top 50 at min.

My opinion is to tie up this year's pending extensions. As I believe is the real reason why they are doing a reset. To be able to go over in extensions.

After that they need to target the keepers and the chips. Extend Contreras then Amaya becomes a chip.

I would say Davis and Marquez should be the untouchables. Horner is pretty close to it. He represents cost reduction in the starting 8.

So that is how I believe it shakes out over the next 2 years. I really believe they will for the most part stick with home development for the core and add lower cost depth.
 

beckdawg

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Amaya and Hoerner are well regarded yes.
Ademan hit .221 with an .318 obp last year at A+ ball.
He's still young but doesn't scream great talent to me.
Brennen Davis and some other guys have talent but don't other teams have guys like this as well?

Most rankings have the Cubs farm system in the bottom five for a reason.
You can select and choose your small sample but that doesn't paint the whole picture.
Most rankings are done based on top 100 players which as mentioned is the cubs weak point. But that's not really a smart way to view development. Put it this way, would you rather have the #1 prospect and have the rest of your system be total shit or would you rather have a bunch of guys who could be useful MLB pieces but no super stars unless someone breaks through? The latter is more the situation the cubs are in.

As for Ademan, he just turned 21 3 months ago. Average age for hitters in the Carolina league is 22.6 years. So he played all of 2019 in a league where the average age was 2.5 years older than him. And if you look beyond the triple slash you'll see why he's still regarded as a prospect. His BB/k rate was 11.4%/21.8%. The walk rate is pretty great and the K rate is probably a little below average but not crazy given he's young for the league. His BABIP was also decently low at .282. Just looking at the numbers I suspect part of that is he's not currently tapped into his power. A .113 ISO is kinda meh but again his body is gonna fill out as he ages. I don't think we need to get into a lengthy discussion here about him but suffice to say fangraphs guys think he's an every day starting SS.

As for Davis, not many teams have guys like him. Your point which i think is a valid one is that a lot of teams have toolsy guys who are one breakthrough away from being something. But when we're talking about Marquez and Davis I don't think they apply to that. Not many teams have starting pitching prospects who can hit 100. Marquez can do that and do it from the left side which is even more rare.

And I don't think cubs fans appreciate Davis enough yet. The guy has CRAZY tools. Fangraphs had 179 guys with 60 or better raw power in their late 2019 ratings. Of those 179 guys only 20 also had 60 grade speed. Of those 20 only 12 had a 60 grade arm. And of those 12 only 8 had a 55 or better fielding grade. Davis is one of those 8. The other 7 are Travis Swaggerty, Jasson Dominguez, Luis Robert, Bobby Witt Jr., Monte Harrison, Robert Puason and Wilderd Patino. With the exception of Patino most of those guys are pretty huge prospects. Puason isn't gonna be on top 100 lists yet but IIRC he was the #2 IFA behind Dominguez last year. Most of the rest of these guys are easily top 50 guys.

As for Davis, like.. the catch with him is he wasn't supposed to hit for average. He was supposed to be like another one of those 8 guys in Monte Harrison. Fangraphs has his hit tool at a 35 and Davis' at a 40. However, at 19 Harrison's A ball line was 7.6%/41.8% bb/k rate with a .148/.246/.247 triple slash a .099 ISO a .265 BABIP and a 49 wRC+ in 184 PAs. Davis also 19 in A ball this past season over 204 PAs hit .305/.381/.525 with a 8.8%/18.6% bb/k rate, a .220 ISO, a .346 BABIP and a 160 wRC+. Harrison is still a good prospect. Fangraphs has him at #98. But it's quite evident that Davis is far more advanced at 19 than Harrison was. To give another comparison, Acuna at 18 in 171 A ball PAs hit .311/.387/.432 with 10.5%/16.4% bb/k rate, .122 ISO, .359 BABIP and a 139 wRC+. Just to throw another crazy comp out there, Trout at 18 in A ball hit .362/.454/.526 with 12.5%/14.1% bb/k rates and .163 ISO, .420 BABIP and 172 wRC+.

None of that is to say Davis is as good/better than Acuna and Trout. I'm merely giving you an idea of how impressive his A ball numbers were. I think you can make a good case that being a year older makes a fair bit of difference and that both Acuna and Trout posted better contact profiles. But the fact you can even bring him up in conversation with those two kind proves my point here. He's got crazy talent
 

anotheridiot

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WSox overspending the Cubs this offseason BY A LOT.

Yeah, so what? Nobody wants our fan favorites moved, but want new names. We are only getting 1 more roster spot this year. I dont think the sox (or any other team) would be spending if they had Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Contrares, Darvish, Lester, Kimbrel either. It wont take much for the sox to get past the weakest division in baseball, and I pretty much guarantee Grandal will be a slug on that team in 2 years.
 

CSF77

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Cubs are not going to do much until the market stalls. It is a good F/A market and the teams that miss out will start looking at trades.

Jan-Feb they might get a deal in.
 

anotheridiot

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Astros got their guy again in Maldonado, 2 years 7 million, I guess the contrares talks are done with them.
 

Chicagosports89

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Astros got their guy again in Maldonado, 2 years 7 million, I guess the contrares talks are done with them.
Lol them getting a backup catcher doesn’t rule out trading for a perennial all star catcher. They can both exist on the same roster
 

SilentLurker

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Posted this about the WSox FA signings - what do you guys think? I didnt want to post it in 2 diff forums so linking :

 

Castor76

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Posted this about the WSox FA signings - what do you guys think? I didnt want to post it in 2 diff forums so linking :


They have to win to capture the city.
 

Steve_A

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Shogo to the Reds. Now centerfield will be a battle between Almora and Happ again...
 

CSF77

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Shogo to the Reds. Now centerfield will be a battle between Almora and Happ again...


315 games Happ has accumulated 4.8 fWAR.
461 games Almora Jr has accumulated 2.1 fWAR.

The numbers don't justify a battle. It is Happ's to loose. Seeing Heyward in CF pretty much showed a loss of faith in Jr.
 

Castor76

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315 games Happ has accumulated 4.8 fWAR.
461 games Almora Jr has accumulated 2.1 fWAR.

The numbers don't justify a battle. It is Happ's to loose. Seeing Heyward in CF pretty much showed a loss of faith in Jr.

I'm not the biggest fan of WAR, but Happ has more than shown he has the right to be on the field versus Almora unless something in ST really changes. I'd love to see someone tell Happ to just bat left handed and try his luck that way versus lefties.
 

TL1961

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It will come down to OBA. Nick is a attacker at the plate.

That and his D will keep him from breaking 20 AAV.


That said. If Theo's goal is laying ground work for the next 5 years. And the indications are appearing this way. Then signing Nick to a 6 year 20 AAV makes sense then. Trade Bryant. Move Happ to 3B and Heyward to CF. When Rizzo becomes short then trade him and move Nick to 1B and promote Davis.

To be clear Davis should be in A+ this year. SB he put up .305/.381/.525. so seeing how players of this talent will struggle some in their MLB promotion I expect MB->Tenn in 2020. 2021. Iowa and MLB taste 2022 full time MLB.

Rizzo: 20:$14.5M club option (or $2M buyout due 1/15/20), 21:$14.5M club option (or $2M buyout due 1/15/21)

So I'm expecting Rizzo to expect a Payday and to be honest it is 40% chance Theo does it. If Nick signs elsewhere to goes up to 75%.

I feel the reality in this situation is pitching holds more weight than hitting. And if you are going to invest heavy it should be into a TOR.

Hitting for the most part is far cheaper.

Not to mention in a series TOR > Premium hitting.

162 hitting > TOR.

Due to off days being able to front load a rotation.

So that is my opinion.

That has disaster written all over it.

Heyward in CF with Happ and Castellanos starting? And Schwarber and Contreras, presumably? Not to mention 2nd base?

That would be one horrible defensive team.
 

CSF77

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That has disaster written all over it.

Heyward in CF with Happ and Castellanos starting? And Schwarber and Contreras, presumably? Not to mention 2nd base?

That would be one horrible defensive team.

They don't have the income to sign Nick. They are aiming to get under 208 right now and that ship has left.
 
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CSF77

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Imagine if the Nolan trade rumors were actually true and the cubs landed him. That left side of the infield would be ridiculous. Throw in Rizzo at 1B...what a hell of a fielding infield that would be


I just read that one also. The hole in that one is Nolan can opt out after 2 years. Sound familiar.

So in theory Nolan for Heyward and Contreras.

Bryant for pitching prospects.

Sign Castallanos for RF.

It really feels far fetched and too many moving parts and all have to align perfectly.

Other words nope.
 

beckdawg

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Apropos of nothing, it's looking like last year was a good year for the cubs to struggle. 2020 MLB draft class was already set to be decently strong but the top guy from the 2021 class apparently reclassified and is now available for 2020. There's also some speculation that another guy from the 2021 class may do the same. If so it's kind of an interesting situation for the cubs because theoretically we might see the cubs spend next offseason and burn picks on QO guys but the class in general may be weaker so the net loss would be less.

I'd kinda like to see the cubs try and steal one of the competitive balance picks from a team to add some more slot money into their draft.
 

knoxville7

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I just read that one also. The hole in that one is Nolan can opt out after 2 years. Sound familiar.

So in theory Nolan for Heyward and Contreras.

Bryant for pitching prospects.

Sign Castallanos for RF.

It really feels far fetched and too many moving parts and all have to align perfectly.

Other words nope.

I never said it was plausible to happen. Just that it’d be the best fielding left side of an infield in baseball.
 

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