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Treash: The Chicago Bears should mortgage their future, trade into the top 5 for Ohio State QB Justin Fields | NFL Draft | PFF
The Chicago Bears quarterback situation has put fans on full tilt this offseason, and understandably so. The city has never really enjoyed the security and success that comes with a long-term, quality franchise quarterback, and debates about the best passer ever to suit up in the blue and orange would draw names like Sid Luckman, Jim McMahon, Erik Kramer and Jay Cutler.
The Chicago Bears quarterback situation has put fans on full tilt this offseason, and understandably so. The city has never really enjoyed the security and success that comes with a long-term, quality franchise quarterback, and debates about the best passer ever to suit up in the blue and orange would draw names like Sid Luckman, Jim McMahon, Erik Kramer and Jay Cutler.
Cutler is the only passer in that group that PFF has graded, and he ranked 21st among 27 qualifying quarterbacks in PFF passing grade during his time in Chicago from 2009-2016. That doesn't exactly scream “cream of the crop.”
For an excruciatingly minuscule stretch of the 2021 offseason, it looked as though that might all change. The team was reportedly locked in on acquiring Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson after he publicly voiced his frustration with Seattle's uninspiring team-building decisions and listed Chicago as one of his four preferred trade destinations. The Bears made the offer, but Seahawks general manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll came back in rejection after mulling their options.
So, what would a trade for Wilson have meant for the Bears? Wilson has generated 7.1 wins above replacement (WAR) since the start of the 2019 season, while Chicago’s quarterback room produced a combined 1.3 WAR over that span. The difference is stark.
With Wilson off the table, Chicago was forced to tap into the free agency market and sign veteran Andy Dalton, who ranks 23rd among quarterbacks in WAR generated since 2019 (1.85 WAR), as insurance. An improvement over Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles indeed, but it is still a marginal upgrade with a rock-hard ceiling that has been set for a long time. Sure, Chicago is fully capable of making the playoffs with Dalton under center, but there is a better chance of hitting the Powerball than there is of the Red Rifle leading the Chicago Bears to a Lombardi Trophy.
Dalton did help lead the Cincinnati Bengals to five straight playoff appearances to start his career, but every single one of those games ended in a wild-card loss. Of his nine years in Cincinnati and his one season with the Dallas Cowboys when he filled in for a hurt Dak Prescott, he led just one top-10 passing offense in terms of expected points added (EPA).
The veteran QB has ranked at or above the 50th percentile in single-season passing grade just four times in his 10 years in the league. In his two most recent years, 2020 and 2019, Dalton has ranked 22nd and 23rd, respectively, among qualifying quarterbacks — the second- and third-lowest ranked seasons of his career.
There has been an evident decline in Dalton's play, and the fact that he will turn 34 in the middle of next season does little to spark hope of a dramatic turnaround. While he has remained relatively accurate, Dalton’s ability to produce downfield has plummeted — he ranks ahead of only Teddy Bridgewater and Jimmy Garoppolo in big-time throw rate since the start of the 2019 season.
Bears general manager Ryan Pace has been adamant that there is no competition with Nick Foles and that Dalton will be the Bears’ starting quarterback. But this doesn’t mean they have completely closed the door on injecting younger and more inspiring talent into the quarterback room.
We’ve heard these comments before, when Pace signed Mike Glennon as the “starter” before trading up to draft Mitchell Trubisky No. 2 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. It’s also worth noting that Chicago could have easily signed Dalton last offseason if they really wanted to, and it's not as though he showed anything last season that would induce a sudden burst of confidence. Finally, and maybe more importantly, let’s not forget that 2021 will be a make-or-break year for Chicago's current regime.
Dalton is the safety net, put in place to catch Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace should they falter in the 2021 NFL Draft, and the stars are aligning for the Bears to be sniffing around the 2021 quarterback class with the aim of taking one if the opportunity presents itself.
And there certainly is one out there that Chicago could capitalize on.
It’s evident at this point in the pre-draft process that Chicago will need to trade up from No. 20 if they want one of the five first-round quarterbacks. This begs the following questions: (1) Should they mortgage the future for one of these prospects, and (2) is it something they would actually act on?
Only they know the answer to the former, no matter the rumors swirling around the Windy City, but we can answer the former. That answer is a resounding and deafening yes, especially with how the 2021 quarterback class looks right now.
Clemson‘s Trevor Lawrence is going to be a Jacksonville Jaguar, and BYU‘s Zach Wilson is going to be a New York Jet, but things get interesting after that. The San Francisco 49ers made a big move from No. 12 to No. 3, prime position to take their quarterback of the future. And after speculating for days following the trade, we now have a clear favorite for that draft pick: Mac Jones of Alabama, who is fresh off breaking Joe Burrow’s record from 2019 for the highest single-season PFF grade by a Power 5 quarterback in our seven years of grading college football.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Jones is -200 to be the Niners' pick at No. 3, followed by Justin Fields at +175 and then Trey Lance at +400.
This matches everything ESPN’s Adam Schefter has reported. To this point, Schefter has said San Francisco likes all three quarterbacks and is keeping an open mind, but he would be shocked if Jones wasn’t the pick.
This leads us to the Atlanta Falcons, who hold the fourth overall pick. They could very well take a quarterback here too, but given the restructure of Matt Ryan’s contract that pretty much locks him into the starting job through 2022 and the fact Schefter has said that Atlanta is “open to moving” out of the No. 4 pick, it looks as though they are leaning with not taking a passer.
So, we could have Ohio State‘s Justin Fields and North Dakota State‘s Trey Lance available at Pick 4, with as many as four teams willing to trade up to that pick (Denver Broncos at No. 9, New England Patriots at No. 15, Washington Football Team at No. 19 and Chicago at No. 20).
It would take a minimum of three first-round picks (2021, 2022 and 2023), a second-rounder, a third-rounder and some extra, late-round change like a sixth-rounder for the Bears to jump up from No. 20 to No. 4. That's not worth it for Lance. It is worth it for Justin Fields.
In seven years of evaluating college prospects during the PFF College era, Fields is the fifth-best prospect we have seen regardless of position. He comes in behind only Lawrence, Burrow, Wilson and Baker Mayfield. Lance, on the other hand, ranks No. 44 overall and No. 12 among quarterbacks.
Prospect Actual draft slot
1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (2021) ?
2. Joe Burrow, LSU (2020) No. 1 to Cincinnati Bengals
3. Zach Wilson, BYU (2021) ?
4. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (2018) No. 1 to Cleveland Browns
5. Justin Fields, Ohio State (2021) ?
6. Jameis Winston, Florida State (2015) No. 1 to Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7. Kyler Murray, Oklahoma (2019) No. 1 to Arizona Cardinals
8. Marcus Mariota, Oregon (2015) No. 2 to Tennessee Titans
9. Sam Darnold, USC (2018) No. 3 to New York Jets
10. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama (2020) No. 5 to Miami Dolphins
11. Jared Goff, Cal (2016) No. 1 to Los Angeles Rams
12. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (2021) ?
Lance has a high ceiling but an extremely low floor. He has the physical tools the NFL covets at the position, but he doesn’t have the accuracy, which is hands-down the most important aspect of a successful NFL quarterback. Just look at how he stacks up against other first-round quarterbacks in accurate-pass rate on throws beyond the line of scrimmage since we began our ball-charting process in 2017:
Accurate pass % throwing beyond the line of scrimmage in final college season (or final two for those with sample size issues)
QB Accurate pass %
Joe Burrow, LSU (2019) 70.5%
Mac Jones, Alabama (2020) 65.3%
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (2020) 62.7%
Kyler Murray, Oklahoma (2018) 61.3%
Justin Fields, OSU (2019 + 2020) 60.9%
Zach Wilson, BYU (2020) 60.8%
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (2017) 60.8%
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama (2018 + 2019) 59.7%
Dwayne Haskins, OSU (2018) 59.2%
Daniel Jones, Duke (2018) 58.6%
Sam Darnold, USC (2017) 58.0%
Josh Rosen, UCLA (2017) 52.3%
Jordan Love, Utah State (2019) 50.6%
Justin Herbert, Oregon (2019) 49.3%
Josh Allen, Wyoming (2017) 49.0%
Lamar Jackson, Louisville (2017) 48.5%
Trey Lance, NDSU (2019 + 2020) 44.1%
Lance also ranks last if we include all throws rather than just those that went beyond the line of scrimmage. The kicker is that Lance had the second-lowest rate of throws into a tight or closing window among this group behind only Fields. The former Ohio State quarterback, however, had nearly twice the number of pass attempts and a higher average depth of target than Lance. If we are looking solely at deep passes of 20-plus yards, Fields is right there with Mayfield for the second-highest accurate pass rate among that entire group. PFF lead draft analyst Mike Renner recently went over his draft superlatives for the 2021 quarterback class, and he named Fields the most accurate. Point being, Fields checks the accuracy box — the most important box when evaluating quarterback play — with flying colors, and Lance does not.
Lance has shown physical tools and the ability to protect the ball. He can sling it to all levels of the field and is a weapon on the ground — he rarely gave the defense an opportunity to make a play on the ball. But Fields has all those traits on his scouting report as well.
Fields clocked a 4.44-second 40-yard time at his pro day and notched a 10-plus yard gain on 49 of his 129 runs during his collegiate career (Lance has 48 on 154 in the FCS, for what it’s worth). Fields is also the lone Power 5 quarterback to rank inside the top 10 in the FBS in both big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rate over the last couple of years.
The belief that Fields is a “one-read” quarterback is inherently false. But it's true that his processing speed is a tick slow, as noted in the PFF 2021 NFL Draft guide. It showed up against the blitzes and coverage rotations Indiana threw his way this past year and in the CFP semifinal against Clemson back in the 2019 season. His time to throw on blitzes since 2019 was the longest in the entire FBS at 3.08 seconds.
Still, should that keep Fields from being the third or fourth quarterback off the board? Not at all. His physical profile is pretty much perfect, and he has shown a lot of promise when on the field. He was certainly in a good situation at Ohio State, but he’s not like other Buckeye quarterbacks who flamed out in the NFL. Fields' 92.4 passing grade from 2019 and 92.2 passing grade from 2020 are over seven grading points higher than any other Ohio State quarterback in the PFF College era. Those two marks are also among the 10 highest we have seen by a Power 5 quarterback.
Fields really is one of the best overall prospects in the last decade. For the Chicago Bears, he's absolutely worth mortgaging the future for. It would cost the likes of three first-round picks and couple of Day 2 picks to move up from No. 20 to No. 4. There is obviously no guarantee that Fields becomes one of the NFL’s next elite quarterbacks — if that were the case, teams and the football community as a whole wouldn’t be in heavy disagreement on this crop of passers. That said, Fields has a better chance of getting there than any quarterback currently donning the orange “C” on his helmet and a better chance than most prospects at the position in recent years.
The Bears have to make a move of this magnitude if the 49ers take Mac Jones at Pick 3. Otherwise, they are bound to be stuck with quarterback mediocrity for years to come. It's rare for a quarterback class to be this loaded at the top and for a prospect of Fields’ caliber to be available outside of the top three.
The Chicago Bears quarterback situation has put fans on full tilt this offseason, and understandably so. The city has never really enjoyed the security and success that comes with a long-term, quality franchise quarterback, and debates about the best passer ever to suit up in the blue and orange would draw names like Sid Luckman, Jim McMahon, Erik Kramer and Jay Cutler.
The Chicago Bears quarterback situation has put fans on full tilt this offseason, and understandably so. The city has never really enjoyed the security and success that comes with a long-term, quality franchise quarterback, and debates about the best passer ever to suit up in the blue and orange would draw names like Sid Luckman, Jim McMahon, Erik Kramer and Jay Cutler.
Cutler is the only passer in that group that PFF has graded, and he ranked 21st among 27 qualifying quarterbacks in PFF passing grade during his time in Chicago from 2009-2016. That doesn't exactly scream “cream of the crop.”
For an excruciatingly minuscule stretch of the 2021 offseason, it looked as though that might all change. The team was reportedly locked in on acquiring Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson after he publicly voiced his frustration with Seattle's uninspiring team-building decisions and listed Chicago as one of his four preferred trade destinations. The Bears made the offer, but Seahawks general manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll came back in rejection after mulling their options.
So, what would a trade for Wilson have meant for the Bears? Wilson has generated 7.1 wins above replacement (WAR) since the start of the 2019 season, while Chicago’s quarterback room produced a combined 1.3 WAR over that span. The difference is stark.
With Wilson off the table, Chicago was forced to tap into the free agency market and sign veteran Andy Dalton, who ranks 23rd among quarterbacks in WAR generated since 2019 (1.85 WAR), as insurance. An improvement over Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles indeed, but it is still a marginal upgrade with a rock-hard ceiling that has been set for a long time. Sure, Chicago is fully capable of making the playoffs with Dalton under center, but there is a better chance of hitting the Powerball than there is of the Red Rifle leading the Chicago Bears to a Lombardi Trophy.
Dalton did help lead the Cincinnati Bengals to five straight playoff appearances to start his career, but every single one of those games ended in a wild-card loss. Of his nine years in Cincinnati and his one season with the Dallas Cowboys when he filled in for a hurt Dak Prescott, he led just one top-10 passing offense in terms of expected points added (EPA).
The veteran QB has ranked at or above the 50th percentile in single-season passing grade just four times in his 10 years in the league. In his two most recent years, 2020 and 2019, Dalton has ranked 22nd and 23rd, respectively, among qualifying quarterbacks — the second- and third-lowest ranked seasons of his career.
There has been an evident decline in Dalton's play, and the fact that he will turn 34 in the middle of next season does little to spark hope of a dramatic turnaround. While he has remained relatively accurate, Dalton’s ability to produce downfield has plummeted — he ranks ahead of only Teddy Bridgewater and Jimmy Garoppolo in big-time throw rate since the start of the 2019 season.
Bears general manager Ryan Pace has been adamant that there is no competition with Nick Foles and that Dalton will be the Bears’ starting quarterback. But this doesn’t mean they have completely closed the door on injecting younger and more inspiring talent into the quarterback room.
We’ve heard these comments before, when Pace signed Mike Glennon as the “starter” before trading up to draft Mitchell Trubisky No. 2 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. It’s also worth noting that Chicago could have easily signed Dalton last offseason if they really wanted to, and it's not as though he showed anything last season that would induce a sudden burst of confidence. Finally, and maybe more importantly, let’s not forget that 2021 will be a make-or-break year for Chicago's current regime.
Dalton is the safety net, put in place to catch Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace should they falter in the 2021 NFL Draft, and the stars are aligning for the Bears to be sniffing around the 2021 quarterback class with the aim of taking one if the opportunity presents itself.
And there certainly is one out there that Chicago could capitalize on.
It’s evident at this point in the pre-draft process that Chicago will need to trade up from No. 20 if they want one of the five first-round quarterbacks. This begs the following questions: (1) Should they mortgage the future for one of these prospects, and (2) is it something they would actually act on?
Only they know the answer to the former, no matter the rumors swirling around the Windy City, but we can answer the former. That answer is a resounding and deafening yes, especially with how the 2021 quarterback class looks right now.
Clemson‘s Trevor Lawrence is going to be a Jacksonville Jaguar, and BYU‘s Zach Wilson is going to be a New York Jet, but things get interesting after that. The San Francisco 49ers made a big move from No. 12 to No. 3, prime position to take their quarterback of the future. And after speculating for days following the trade, we now have a clear favorite for that draft pick: Mac Jones of Alabama, who is fresh off breaking Joe Burrow’s record from 2019 for the highest single-season PFF grade by a Power 5 quarterback in our seven years of grading college football.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Jones is -200 to be the Niners' pick at No. 3, followed by Justin Fields at +175 and then Trey Lance at +400.
This matches everything ESPN’s Adam Schefter has reported. To this point, Schefter has said San Francisco likes all three quarterbacks and is keeping an open mind, but he would be shocked if Jones wasn’t the pick.
This leads us to the Atlanta Falcons, who hold the fourth overall pick. They could very well take a quarterback here too, but given the restructure of Matt Ryan’s contract that pretty much locks him into the starting job through 2022 and the fact Schefter has said that Atlanta is “open to moving” out of the No. 4 pick, it looks as though they are leaning with not taking a passer.
So, we could have Ohio State‘s Justin Fields and North Dakota State‘s Trey Lance available at Pick 4, with as many as four teams willing to trade up to that pick (Denver Broncos at No. 9, New England Patriots at No. 15, Washington Football Team at No. 19 and Chicago at No. 20).
It would take a minimum of three first-round picks (2021, 2022 and 2023), a second-rounder, a third-rounder and some extra, late-round change like a sixth-rounder for the Bears to jump up from No. 20 to No. 4. That's not worth it for Lance. It is worth it for Justin Fields.
In seven years of evaluating college prospects during the PFF College era, Fields is the fifth-best prospect we have seen regardless of position. He comes in behind only Lawrence, Burrow, Wilson and Baker Mayfield. Lance, on the other hand, ranks No. 44 overall and No. 12 among quarterbacks.
Prospect Actual draft slot
1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (2021) ?
2. Joe Burrow, LSU (2020) No. 1 to Cincinnati Bengals
3. Zach Wilson, BYU (2021) ?
4. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (2018) No. 1 to Cleveland Browns
5. Justin Fields, Ohio State (2021) ?
6. Jameis Winston, Florida State (2015) No. 1 to Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7. Kyler Murray, Oklahoma (2019) No. 1 to Arizona Cardinals
8. Marcus Mariota, Oregon (2015) No. 2 to Tennessee Titans
9. Sam Darnold, USC (2018) No. 3 to New York Jets
10. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama (2020) No. 5 to Miami Dolphins
11. Jared Goff, Cal (2016) No. 1 to Los Angeles Rams
12. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (2021) ?
Lance has a high ceiling but an extremely low floor. He has the physical tools the NFL covets at the position, but he doesn’t have the accuracy, which is hands-down the most important aspect of a successful NFL quarterback. Just look at how he stacks up against other first-round quarterbacks in accurate-pass rate on throws beyond the line of scrimmage since we began our ball-charting process in 2017:
Accurate pass % throwing beyond the line of scrimmage in final college season (or final two for those with sample size issues)
QB Accurate pass %
Joe Burrow, LSU (2019) 70.5%
Mac Jones, Alabama (2020) 65.3%
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (2020) 62.7%
Kyler Murray, Oklahoma (2018) 61.3%
Justin Fields, OSU (2019 + 2020) 60.9%
Zach Wilson, BYU (2020) 60.8%
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (2017) 60.8%
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama (2018 + 2019) 59.7%
Dwayne Haskins, OSU (2018) 59.2%
Daniel Jones, Duke (2018) 58.6%
Sam Darnold, USC (2017) 58.0%
Josh Rosen, UCLA (2017) 52.3%
Jordan Love, Utah State (2019) 50.6%
Justin Herbert, Oregon (2019) 49.3%
Josh Allen, Wyoming (2017) 49.0%
Lamar Jackson, Louisville (2017) 48.5%
Trey Lance, NDSU (2019 + 2020) 44.1%
Lance also ranks last if we include all throws rather than just those that went beyond the line of scrimmage. The kicker is that Lance had the second-lowest rate of throws into a tight or closing window among this group behind only Fields. The former Ohio State quarterback, however, had nearly twice the number of pass attempts and a higher average depth of target than Lance. If we are looking solely at deep passes of 20-plus yards, Fields is right there with Mayfield for the second-highest accurate pass rate among that entire group. PFF lead draft analyst Mike Renner recently went over his draft superlatives for the 2021 quarterback class, and he named Fields the most accurate. Point being, Fields checks the accuracy box — the most important box when evaluating quarterback play — with flying colors, and Lance does not.
Lance has shown physical tools and the ability to protect the ball. He can sling it to all levels of the field and is a weapon on the ground — he rarely gave the defense an opportunity to make a play on the ball. But Fields has all those traits on his scouting report as well.
Fields clocked a 4.44-second 40-yard time at his pro day and notched a 10-plus yard gain on 49 of his 129 runs during his collegiate career (Lance has 48 on 154 in the FCS, for what it’s worth). Fields is also the lone Power 5 quarterback to rank inside the top 10 in the FBS in both big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rate over the last couple of years.
The belief that Fields is a “one-read” quarterback is inherently false. But it's true that his processing speed is a tick slow, as noted in the PFF 2021 NFL Draft guide. It showed up against the blitzes and coverage rotations Indiana threw his way this past year and in the CFP semifinal against Clemson back in the 2019 season. His time to throw on blitzes since 2019 was the longest in the entire FBS at 3.08 seconds.
Still, should that keep Fields from being the third or fourth quarterback off the board? Not at all. His physical profile is pretty much perfect, and he has shown a lot of promise when on the field. He was certainly in a good situation at Ohio State, but he’s not like other Buckeye quarterbacks who flamed out in the NFL. Fields' 92.4 passing grade from 2019 and 92.2 passing grade from 2020 are over seven grading points higher than any other Ohio State quarterback in the PFF College era. Those two marks are also among the 10 highest we have seen by a Power 5 quarterback.
Fields really is one of the best overall prospects in the last decade. For the Chicago Bears, he's absolutely worth mortgaging the future for. It would cost the likes of three first-round picks and couple of Day 2 picks to move up from No. 20 to No. 4. There is obviously no guarantee that Fields becomes one of the NFL’s next elite quarterbacks — if that were the case, teams and the football community as a whole wouldn’t be in heavy disagreement on this crop of passers. That said, Fields has a better chance of getting there than any quarterback currently donning the orange “C” on his helmet and a better chance than most prospects at the position in recent years.
The Bears have to make a move of this magnitude if the 49ers take Mac Jones at Pick 3. Otherwise, they are bound to be stuck with quarterback mediocrity for years to come. It's rare for a quarterback class to be this loaded at the top and for a prospect of Fields’ caliber to be available outside of the top three.
